Boise St. not going to BE afterall

[ASUMountaineer]

You have really summed it up. Swofford being in the drivers seat makes me want to vomit. What i would add to your great post is that the TV money will be flowing to the big 4 also. There will be less to go around for the rest of the FBS.

I had planned to bring up the money when I talked about the scraps but I wrote so much I just plain forgot about it. I e-mailed a copy of this whole thing to a friend of mine who isn't on here and I added the money and TV stuff to it but you already brought it up so I didn't feel the need to change the OP. For that I thank you.

And thank you JC for your kind words and rep point.

Having a hard time convincing my ECU friends they will not see the millions in TV revenues being promised. No way TV exec's are going to pay the same cash for the new line up. They have a solid argument the conference they made the deal with no longer exists and might try to renegotiate the contracts now. The new basketball conference could get a better deal than the reconfigured BE.

If you are outside the Big 4-5 you better be in a regional conference. The SB is a better football conference than CUSA now but there isn't enough TV revenue to offset the travel unless we go in for football only and to another conference in all other sports. With a few more changes CUSA will be a much better geographic fit but when / if those changes come will it be too late?

This could happen and be a viable option. If the MWC takes CUSA's Texas schools plus Tulsa, then CUSA becomes much more compact. I would hate to be in a conference with UNCC, but a Texas-less CUSA is a much more desirable conference geographically than the current Sun Belt.

[hapapp]

My gut tells me this won't turn out good for ASU. We may be too late for the party. While there may be openings available, the remnants of the SBC may not be worth our joining. Whatever the case, I don't believe we will learn our fate any time soon.

[hapapp]

The Boise State-MWC agreement includes a requirement to offer membership to SDSU before any other school. The offer expires on Jan 31.

http://voices.idahostatesman.com/2013/0 ... _exit_fees

[AppSt94]

Another possibility that is being talked about in whispers among people who cover or are connected to the SEC, PAC-12, Big-12, Big-10 and ACC (and a few coaches and AD's from other conferences as well).

This whole thing can be illustrated using a NatGeo show. The Elite 4 conferences are a pride of lions circling a herd of wildebeest trapped in a canyon (all remaining FBS teams except one conference). The ACC is the lone Water Buffalo standing beside the herd. And the FCS teams wanting to move up are the Thomson's Gazelles watching from the outside, too small for the lions to take notice but really wanting to be in the herd of wildebeests.

Alone, no lion can attack the water buffalo because it’s still too strong so the lions are deciding which way to go since the wildebeests aren’t going anywhere, just moving back and forth among themselves. The key to the whole situation is do they gang up and take the Water Buffalo down and then pick off the wildebeests they want while letting the rest go fend for themselves or do they leave the Water Buffalo alone?

No matter what happens anywhere else (i.e. Boise staying in the MWC) this whole thing boils down to one thing. Does the ACC cave any at all on Maryland’s exit fee or does Swofford stand strong and demand the full $50 mil. If he caves, even a little, then the lions will attack. The ACC can afford to lose a couple (Ga. Tech, Va. Tech, even FSU), with who they have coming in. But if they take any of the core Carolina teams (UNC, NCSU, Duke) then its feeding time, all bets are off, and the frenzy is on. There will be nothing but scraps left for the Hyenas’ (aka the NCAA) to clean up. We will be left with 4 Mega Conferences who will be, in all but name, the NFL/CFL development league (or a semi pro league if one chooses to call it that), the rest of FBS and possibly a few FCS teams will be a lesser division, not as low as the current level of FCS but with scholarships in the 70’s, and the current FCS teams with no desire to move up or those who are not picked will become D-II, with the current D-II teams having to make a decision to grow enough to fit the new division or drop back to D-III. And everyone will have a playoff system in place.

Anyway you cut it the lynch pin is Swofford (makes you feel warm all over, doesn’t it). A few other surprise things could happen but the foundation rests on what the ACC does. I know all conferences outside of the big 4 and the ACC will fight for their lives but if the ACC goes down then all bets are truly off and the repercussions are going to be far and wide. And once again we are the not so pretty girl (at least in their eyes) hoping to be asked to dance by someone.

I know this is an extreme scenario but I've spent the last few days reading a lot of stories and blogs from reporters who cover the SEC, PAC-12, Big-12 and Big-10 and they aren't talking about the Big East or MWC. They are mainly talking about the ACC and what happens to the exit fee for Maryland. And most are saying they are standing pat until the Maryland issue is resolved.

I like everything about your post. I think that all points are valid and possible scenarios for the future. Not as a point of debate or dissention, but why is the ACC the conference that will be poached? Granted, I know most people on this board do not like the ACC and most articles that have emerged around the country say the same thing. But to me, if the stars align for 4 16-team conferences, the Big 12 stands to be the most logical conference that is dissolved. The PAC 12 has 12 teams and would need 4. Are there 4 options out west more viable than Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. The Big 10, needing 2 teams, could easily absorb Kansas and Kansas St. This would leave the SEC with 2 slots. I do not think that Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina, will allow FSU, Clemson, and/or Georgia Tech into the league and why would the SEC want them? They bring nothing to the table in terms of new markets. The SEC could go after VIrginia Tech and NC State, but would either leave? State would benefit greatly from moving as they would become the best football team in the state. Assuming both bolted for the SEC, then they are replaced by West Virginia and UConn. Then you would fill out the remaining two slots with USF and Notre Dame provided ND can't work out a deal with the other conferences to make the playoffs as an independent. The bottom line is that there are currently 68 football playing schools in the ACC, Pac 12, Big 10, Bid 12, and Big East and Notre Dame. Eliminating those schools moving up from lowere tier conferences, that means that 4 teams will be left without chairs to the grown-ups table. Those four may very well be Baylor, TCU, Iowa St. and Cinicnatti.

[eggers76]

"the Big 12 stands to be the most logical conference that is dissolved."

In all of this conference realignment there has not been much of anything that has happened that was very logical (aka, the community college known as UNCC getting invited to the CUSA). Money and market size being the most common drivers of conference changes. Football is the money maker and for what it is worth, the Big 12 is considered a better football conference. Living in NC it is hard to imagine a world where the ACC does not exist but strange things have been happening and at this point nothing would surprise me.

[AppSt94]

"the Big 12 stands to be the most logical conference that is dissolved."

In all of this conference realignment there has not been much of anything that has happened that was very logical (aka, the community college known as UNCC getting invited to the CUSA). Money and market size being the most common drivers of conference changes. Football is the money maker and for what it is worth, the Big 12 is considered a better football conference. Living in NC it is hard to imagine a world where the ACC does not exist but strange things have been happening and at this point nothing would surprise me.

I agree that life without the ACC is a bit surreal, and realignment has been very weird. What drives my position is the PAC12. There will need to be a west coast conference which necessitates the PAC12. So to get to 16, you need to fill from somewhere and the Texas and Oklahoma schools make the best fit. With that the Big 12 dissolves. Just my opinion.

[eggers76]

I think Texas is the 900 lb gorilla in the room with their own TV network that other leagues don't seem to want to deal with. However you never know what is going to happen and logic it seems does not play a big roll in all of this, at least from my narrow point of view, lol.

[firemoose]

I like everything about your post. I think that all points are valid and possible scenarios for the future. Not as a point of debate or dissention, but why is the ACC the conference that will be poached? Granted, I know most people on this board do not like the ACC and most articles that have emerged around the country say the same thing. But to me, if the stars align for 4 16-team conferences, the Big 12 stands to be the most logical conference that is dissolved. The PAC 12 has 12 teams and would need 4. Are there 4 options out west more viable than Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. The Big 10, needing 2 teams, could easily absorb Kansas and Kansas St. This would leave the SEC with 2 slots. I do not think that Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina, will allow FSU, Clemson, and/or Georgia Tech into the league and why would the SEC want them? They bring nothing to the table in terms of new markets. The SEC could go after VIrginia Tech and NC State, but would either leave? State would benefit greatly from moving as they would become the best football team in the state. Assuming both bolted for the SEC, then they are replaced by West Virginia and UConn. Then you would fill out the remaining two slots with USF and Notre Dame provided ND can't work out a deal with the other conferences to make the playoffs as an independent. The bottom line is that there are currently 68 football playing schools in the ACC, Pac 12, Big 10, Bid 12, and Big East and Notre Dame. Eliminating those schools moving up from lowere tier conferences, that means that 4 teams will be left without chairs to the grown-ups table. Those four may very well be Baylor, TCU, Iowa St. and Cinicnatti.

Well, as stated at the top of the post, this is what is being discussed among the writers and reporters as well as among coaches in whispers. The reason the ACC is the most likely conference to be picked apart is that, while it is a strong basketball conference, it is not a truly strong football conference and the Big 4 realize that football and TV revenue go hand in hand and can provide the most money for the schools involved. But the ACC brings a strong BB tradition that all of the other power conferences would love to add to their already strong football schools. This is the main reason. Football is the lock and basketball is the key. Put them both together and you have 4 mega conferences that not only are tops in football but in basketball also.

As to your questions about schools, this is what is being talked about. FSU would not go SEC for the very reasons you stated. The Big-12 is looking at them as well as Ga Tech. The Big-12 and SEC are looking at Va.Tech. Clemson is being considered by the Big-12. These are the rumors that are being discussed as possible moves so far but the true key, as I said, is what happens to Maryland and the exit fee. The biggest key, however, is what happens to UNC, NCST, and Duke. I have seen on several reports that, should Maryland get the fee dropped, then the first thing that would happen is that the SEC and Big-10 would approach NCST and UNC respectively with feelers. Three of the four would contact Duke. This would happen before any more contact on the others mentioned above. Should one of those schools jump, then the whole house of cards could come down. I still believe that a couple of the others might go even if nothing else happens as long as they don't have to pay the full $50 mil., but it wouldn't be a huge loss with who they have coming in. But if one of the Carolina teams jumps then all bets are off. You are correct in saying that the numbers don't add up and several would be left on the outside looking in but should one of the core ACC teams jump ship the rest might be looking at offers they just can't refuse and then the ACC, what's left of it that is, as one of the power 5 would be no more and it would just become another "other", just like what is happening to the Big East.

I want to say that I have nothing personal against the ACC, unlike some on here. I am just putting together the reports I have read and the conversations I have had, and trying to put it together into a possible situation that could happen. And keep in mind the true similarities between what is happening to the Big East and what is being talked about now. Even as little as 5 years ago no one thought the BE, a conference not real strong in football but very strong in basketball, would be the wreck it is now. Sound familiar.

[AppSt94]

Once again firemoose. Your opinions and thought process were a nice read. Thanks for your input.

[appst89]

I like everything about your post. I think that all points are valid and possible scenarios for the future. Not as a point of debate or dissention, but why is the ACC the conference that will be poached? Granted, I know most people on this board do not like the ACC and most articles that have emerged around the country say the same thing. But to me, if the stars align for 4 16-team conferences, the Big 12 stands to be the most logical conference that is dissolved. The PAC 12 has 12 teams and would need 4. Are there 4 options out west more viable than Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. The Big 10, needing 2 teams, could easily absorb Kansas and Kansas St. This would leave the SEC with 2 slots. I do not think that Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina, will allow FSU, Clemson, and/or Georgia Tech into the league and why would the SEC want them? They bring nothing to the table in terms of new markets. The SEC could go after VIrginia Tech and NC State, but would either leave? State would benefit greatly from moving as they would become the best football team in the state. Assuming both bolted for the SEC, then they are replaced by West Virginia and UConn. Then you would fill out the remaining two slots with USF and Notre Dame provided ND can't work out a deal with the other conferences to make the playoffs as an independent. The bottom line is that there are currently 68 football playing schools in the ACC, Pac 12, Big 10, Bid 12, and Big East and Notre Dame. Eliminating those schools moving up from lowere tier conferences, that means that 4 teams will be left without chairs to the grown-ups table. Those four may very well be Baylor, TCU, Iowa St. and Cinicnatti.

Well, as stated at the top of the post, this is what is being discussed among the writers and reporters as well as among coaches in whispers. The reason the ACC is the most likely conference to be picked apart is that, while it is a strong basketball conference, it is not a truly strong football conference and the Big 4 realize that football and TV revenue go hand in hand and can provide the most money for the schools involved. But the ACC brings a strong BB tradition that all of the other power conferences would love to add to their already strong football schools. This is the main reason. Football is the lock and basketball is the key. Put them both together and you have 4 mega conferences that not only are tops in football but in basketball also.

As to your questions about schools, this is what is being talked about. FSU would not go SEC for the very reasons you stated. The Big-12 is looking at them as well as Ga Tech. The Big-10 is looking at Va.Tech. Clemson is being considered by both the Big-10 and Big-12. These are the rumors that are being discussed as possible moves so far but the true key, as I said, is what happens to Maryland and the exit fee. The biggest key, however, is what happens to UNC, NCST, and Duke. I have seen on several reports that, should Maryland get the fee dropped, then the first thing that would happen is that the SEC and Big-12 would approach UNC and NCST with feelers. Three of the four would contact Duke. This would happen before any more contact on the others mentioned above. Should one of those schools jump, then the whole house of cards could come down. I still believe that a couple of the others might go even if nothing else happens as long as they don't have to pay the full $50 mil., but it wouldn't be a huge loss with who they have coming in. But if one of the Carolina teams jumps then all bets are off. You are correct in saying that the numbers don't add up and several would be left on the outside looking in but should one of the core ACC teams jump ship the rest might be looking at offers they just can't refuse and then the ACC, what's left of it that is, as one of the power 5 would be no more and it would just become another "other", just like what is happening to the Big East.

I want to say that I have nothing personal against the ACC, unlike some on here. I am just putting together the reports I have read and the conversations I have had, and trying to put it together into a possible situation that could happen. And keep in mind the true similarities between what is happening to the Big East and what is being talked about now. Even as little as 5 years ago no one thought the BE, a conference not real strong in football but very strong in basketball, would be the wreck it is now. Sound familiar.

The Big 10 will not take Va. Tech or Clemson. Only members of the American Association of Universities are invited to the Big 10. The ACC members who are members of that association are UNC, UVa., Ga. Tech and Duke. What I have heard several times on various radio shows is that Maryland is, indeed, the key. They get out for less than $50 million and the feeding frenzy is on. What I have heard on the radio is UNC (Big 10 commish is a UNC grad) and UVa to the Big 10. Ga. Tech is a possibility, but UVa is the first choice. Va. Tech and NC St. would go to the $EC and Florida St. and Clemson, and possibly Ga. Tech, would go to the Big 12. Duke, Wake, BC and Miami are left scrambling for a home.

[ASUMountaineer]

Another possibility that is being talked about in whispers among people who cover or are connected to the SEC, PAC-12, Big-12, Big-10 and ACC (and a few coaches and AD's from other conferences as well).

This whole thing can be illustrated using a NatGeo show. The Elite 4 conferences are a pride of lions circling a herd of wildebeest trapped in a canyon (all remaining FBS teams except one conference). The ACC is the lone Water Buffalo standing beside the herd. And the FCS teams wanting to move up are the Thomson's Gazelles watching from the outside, too small for the lions to take notice but really wanting to be in the herd of wildebeests.

Alone, no lion can attack the water buffalo because it’s still too strong so the lions are deciding which way to go since the wildebeests aren’t going anywhere, just moving back and forth among themselves. The key to the whole situation is do they gang up and take the Water Buffalo down and then pick off the wildebeests they want while letting the rest go fend for themselves or do they leave the Water Buffalo alone?

No matter what happens anywhere else (i.e. Boise staying in the MWC) this whole thing boils down to one thing. Does the ACC cave any at all on Maryland’s exit fee or does Swofford stand strong and demand the full $50 mil. If he caves, even a little, then the lions will attack. The ACC can afford to lose a couple (Ga. Tech, Va. Tech, even FSU), with who they have coming in. But if they take any of the core Carolina teams (UNC, NCSU, Duke) then its feeding time, all bets are off, and the frenzy is on. There will be nothing but scraps left for the Hyenas’ (aka the NCAA) to clean up. We will be left with 4 Mega Conferences who will be, in all but name, the NFL/CFL development league (or a semi pro league if one chooses to call it that), the rest of FBS and possibly a few FCS teams will be a lesser division, not as low as the current level of FCS but with scholarships in the 70’s, and the current FCS teams with no desire to move up or those who are not picked will become D-II, with the current D-II teams having to make a decision to grow enough to fit the new division or drop back to D-III. And everyone will have a playoff system in place.

Anyway you cut it the lynch pin is Swofford (makes you feel warm all over, doesn’t it). A few other surprise things could happen but the foundation rests on what the ACC does. I know all conferences outside of the big 4 and the ACC will fight for their lives but if the ACC goes down then all bets are truly off and the repercussions are going to be far and wide. And once again we are the not so pretty girl (at least in their eyes) hoping to be asked to dance by someone.

I know this is an extreme scenario but I've spent the last few days reading a lot of stories and blogs from reporters who cover the SEC, PAC-12, Big-12 and Big-10 and they aren't talking about the Big East or MWC. They are mainly talking about the ACC and what happens to the exit fee for Maryland. And most are saying they are standing pat until the Maryland issue is resolved.

I like everything about your post. I think that all points are valid and possible scenarios for the future. Not as a point of debate or dissention, but why is the ACC the conference that will be poached? Granted, I know most people on this board do not like the ACC and most articles that have emerged around the country say the same thing. But to me, if the stars align for 4 16-team conferences, the Big 12 stands to be the most logical conference that is dissolved. The PAC 12 has 12 teams and would need 4. Are there 4 options out west more viable than Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. The Big 10, needing 2 teams, could easily absorb Kansas and Kansas St. This would leave the SEC with 2 slots. I do not think that Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina, will allow FSU, Clemson, and/or Georgia Tech into the league and why would the SEC want them? They bring nothing to the table in terms of new markets. The SEC could go after VIrginia Tech and NC State, but would either leave? State would benefit greatly from moving as they would become the best football team in the state. Assuming both bolted for the SEC, then they are replaced by West Virginia and UConn. Then you would fill out the remaining two slots with USF and Notre Dame provided ND can't work out a deal with the other conferences to make the playoffs as an independent. The bottom line is that there are currently 68 football playing schools in the ACC, Pac 12, Big 10, Bid 12, and Big East and Notre Dame. Eliminating those schools moving up from lowere tier conferences, that means that 4 teams will be left without chairs to the grown-ups table. Those four may very well be Baylor, TCU, Iowa St. and Cinicnatti.

The Big XII has a huge TV deal locked in for something like 12 more seasons. Texas is able to keep it's network under this deal. The Big XII looks to have gone from "on the brink of death" to one of the more stable conferences. It does seem that the ACC is the most vulnerable at this point. Of course, this is all "subject to change."

[AppSt94]

The Big 10 will not take Va. Tech or Clemson. Only members of the American Association of Universities are invited to the Big 10. The ACC members who are members of that association are UNC, UVa., Ga. Tech and Duke. What I have heard several times on various radio shows is that Maryland is, indeed, the key. They get out for less than $50 million and the feeding frenzy is on. What I have heard on the radio is UNC (Big 10 commish is a UNC grad) and UVa to the Big 10. Ga. Tech is a possibility, but UVa is the first choice. Va. Tech and NC St. would go to the $EC and Florida St. and Clemson, and possibly Ga. Tech, would go to the Big 12. Duke, Wake, BC and Miami are left scrambling for a home.[/quote]


Another excellent post on the subject. I did not know about the Big 10 requirement for the AAU. There are a couple of points that I would challenge in the scenarios that you have heard on the radio. I don't think that UNC leaves without Duke. I also think that the "Big 4" are going to be put into a mexican standoff to see which one breaks away first. I would imagine that neither one of them wants to be the 1st one to leave. I still think that there is going to be problems putting together 4 mega conferences without the ACC remaining. You will need some sort of east, west, north, south alignment and who fills out the 4 slots out west? Let's say the Pac 10 fills a spot with Boise St. Who does that knock out of the 64 team pool? A Kansas St.? And how do you leave Miami out at the expense of say an Iowa St?

It has been said that football drives the bus when it comes to television money. This is true, but it hasn't always been the case and whose to say that it will in the future? The NFL is looking into making rule changes to make the game safer. One of those rule changes being floated about is the elimination of kickoffs. If this were to happen, then the college game would soon follow and what kind of affect would that have on the appeal of college football to the casual fan? No one knows. The beauty of this situation is that everyone can have an opinion and we can discuss/agree/ or disagree. In the end whoever ends up being right in their predictions would have essietally won the lottery.

[AppSt94]

Another possibility that is being talked about in whispers among people who cover or are connected to the SEC, PAC-12, Big-12, Big-10 and ACC (and a few coaches and AD's from other conferences as well).

This whole thing can be illustrated using a NatGeo show. The Elite 4 conferences are a pride of lions circling a herd of wildebeest trapped in a canyon (all remaining FBS teams except one conference). The ACC is the lone Water Buffalo standing beside the herd. And the FCS teams wanting to move up are the Thomson's Gazelles watching from the outside, too small for the lions to take notice but really wanting to be in the herd of wildebeests.

Alone, no lion can attack the water buffalo because it’s still too strong so the lions are deciding which way to go since the wildebeests aren’t going anywhere, just moving back and forth among themselves. The key to the whole situation is do they gang up and take the Water Buffalo down and then pick off the wildebeests they want while letting the rest go fend for themselves or do they leave the Water Buffalo alone?

No matter what happens anywhere else (i.e. Boise staying in the MWC) this whole thing boils down to one thing. Does the ACC cave any at all on Maryland’s exit fee or does Swofford stand strong and demand the full $50 mil. If he caves, even a little, then the lions will attack. The ACC can afford to lose a couple (Ga. Tech, Va. Tech, even FSU), with who they have coming in. But if they take any of the core Carolina teams (UNC, NCSU, Duke) then its feeding time, all bets are off, and the frenzy is on. There will be nothing but scraps left for the Hyenas’ (aka the NCAA) to clean up. We will be left with 4 Mega Conferences who will be, in all but name, the NFL/CFL development league (or a semi pro league if one chooses to call it that), the rest of FBS and possibly a few FCS teams will be a lesser division, not as low as the current level of FCS but with scholarships in the 70’s, and the current FCS teams with no desire to move up or those who are not picked will become D-II, with the current D-II teams having to make a decision to grow enough to fit the new division or drop back to D-III. And everyone will have a playoff system in place.

Anyway you cut it the lynch pin is Swofford (makes you feel warm all over, doesn’t it). A few other surprise things could happen but the foundation rests on what the ACC does. I know all conferences outside of the big 4 and the ACC will fight for their lives but if the ACC goes down then all bets are truly off and the repercussions are going to be far and wide. And once again we are the not so pretty girl (at least in their eyes) hoping to be asked to dance by someone.

I know this is an extreme scenario but I've spent the last few days reading a lot of stories and blogs from reporters who cover the SEC, PAC-12, Big-12 and Big-10 and they aren't talking about the Big East or MWC. They are mainly talking about the ACC and what happens to the exit fee for Maryland. And most are saying they are standing pat until the Maryland issue is resolved.

I like everything about your post. I think that all points are valid and possible scenarios for the future. Not as a point of debate or dissention, but why is the ACC the conference that will be poached? Granted, I know most people on this board do not like the ACC and most articles that have emerged around the country say the same thing. But to me, if the stars align for 4 16-team conferences, the Big 12 stands to be the most logical conference that is dissolved. The PAC 12 has 12 teams and would need 4. Are there 4 options out west more viable than Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. The Big 10, needing 2 teams, could easily absorb Kansas and Kansas St. This would leave the SEC with 2 slots. I do not think that Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina, will allow FSU, Clemson, and/or Georgia Tech into the league and why would the SEC want them? They bring nothing to the table in terms of new markets. The SEC could go after VIrginia Tech and NC State, but would either leave? State would benefit greatly from moving as they would become the best football team in the state. Assuming both bolted for the SEC, then they are replaced by West Virginia and UConn. Then you would fill out the remaining two slots with USF and Notre Dame provided ND can't work out a deal with the other conferences to make the playoffs as an independent. The bottom line is that there are currently 68 football playing schools in the ACC, Pac 12, Big 10, Bid 12, and Big East and Notre Dame. Eliminating those schools moving up from lowere tier conferences, that means that 4 teams will be left without chairs to the grown-ups table. Those four may very well be Baylor, TCU, Iowa St. and Cinicnatti.

The Big XII has a huge TV deal locked in for something like 12 more seasons. Texas is able to keep it's network under this deal. The Big XII looks to have gone from "on the brink of death" to one of the more stable conferences. It does seem that the ACC is the most vulnerable at this point. Of course, this is all "subject to change."

Doesn't the ACC have a TV Deal locked up as well? I thought that they just signed one.

[appst89]

The Big 10 will not take Va. Tech or Clemson. Only members of the American Association of Universities are invited to the Big 10. The ACC members who are members of that association are UNC, UVa., Ga. Tech and Duke. What I have heard several times on various radio shows is that Maryland is, indeed, the key. They get out for less than $50 million and the feeding frenzy is on. What I have heard on the radio is UNC (Big 10 commish is a UNC grad) and UVa to the Big 10. Ga. Tech is a possibility, but UVa is the first choice. Va. Tech and NC St. would go to the $EC and Florida St. and Clemson, and possibly Ga. Tech, would go to the Big 12. Duke, Wake, BC and Miami are left scrambling for a home.

Another excellent post on the subject. I did not know about the Big 10 requirement for the AAU. There are a couple of points that I would challenge in the scenarios that you have heard on the radio. I don't think that UNC leaves without Duke. I also think that the "Big 4" are going to be put into a mexican standoff to see which one breaks away first. I would imagine that neither one of them wants to be the 1st one to leave. I still think that there is going to be problems putting together 4 mega conferences without the ACC remaining. You will need some sort of east, west, north, south alignment and who fills out the 4 slots out west? Let's say the Pac 10 fills a spot with Boise St. Who does that knock out of the 64 team pool? A Kansas St.? And how do you leave Miami out at the expense of say an Iowa St?

It has been said that football drives the bus when it comes to television money. This is true, but it hasn't always been the case and whose to say that it will in the future? The NFL is looking into making rule changes to make the game safer. One of those rule changes being floated about is the elimination of kickoffs. If this were to happen, then the college game would soon follow and what kind of affect would that have on the appeal of college football to the casual fan? No one knows. The beauty of this situation is that everyone can have an opinion and we can discuss/agree/ or disagree. In the end whoever ends up being right in their predictions would have essietally won the lottery.

Duke has been a hot topic of discussion in all of these scenarios. Your point about spltting up Duke and UNC was also addressed. The "expert" said all of that kind of loyalty went out the window when Texas and Texas A&M went their separate ways. He said there is no longer any bond that cannot be broken and specifically said that the Duke/UNC/NC State triumvirate was likely to end up in three different conferences. He also said that Duke would be tempting to the Big 10, but ultimately he felt that UVa would be their choice to go with UNC. He also said that Duke could go with Florida St. and Clemson to the Big 12 because of their basketball program. As you said, football is driving this whole thing right now and that puts Duke in a very precarious position. None of the discussions I have heard present any alternatives for Wake, BC or Miami other than that they will be left out. If they do ultimately end up at 64 with the 4 16-team conferences then there are going to be some schools left out that have always been at the top level. I don't think that is going to sit well with them, whoever they may be.

[ASUMountaineer]

Another possibility that is being talked about in whispers among people who cover or are connected to the SEC, PAC-12, Big-12, Big-10 and ACC (and a few coaches and AD's from other conferences as well).

This whole thing can be illustrated using a NatGeo show. The Elite 4 conferences are a pride of lions circling a herd of wildebeest trapped in a canyon (all remaining FBS teams except one conference). The ACC is the lone Water Buffalo standing beside the herd. And the FCS teams wanting to move up are the Thomson's Gazelles watching from the outside, too small for the lions to take notice but really wanting to be in the herd of wildebeests.

Alone, no lion can attack the water buffalo because it’s still too strong so the lions are deciding which way to go since the wildebeests aren’t going anywhere, just moving back and forth among themselves. The key to the whole situation is do they gang up and take the Water Buffalo down and then pick off the wildebeests they want while letting the rest go fend for themselves or do they leave the Water Buffalo alone?

No matter what happens anywhere else (i.e. Boise staying in the MWC) this whole thing boils down to one thing. Does the ACC cave any at all on Maryland’s exit fee or does Swofford stand strong and demand the full $50 mil. If he caves, even a little, then the lions will attack. The ACC can afford to lose a couple (Ga. Tech, Va. Tech, even FSU), with who they have coming in. But if they take any of the core Carolina teams (UNC, NCSU, Duke) then its feeding time, all bets are off, and the frenzy is on. There will be nothing but scraps left for the Hyenas’ (aka the NCAA) to clean up. We will be left with 4 Mega Conferences who will be, in all but name, the NFL/CFL development league (or a semi pro league if one chooses to call it that), the rest of FBS and possibly a few FCS teams will be a lesser division, not as low as the current level of FCS but with scholarships in the 70’s, and the current FCS teams with no desire to move up or those who are not picked will become D-II, with the current D-II teams having to make a decision to grow enough to fit the new division or drop back to D-III. And everyone will have a playoff system in place.

Anyway you cut it the lynch pin is Swofford (makes you feel warm all over, doesn’t it). A few other surprise things could happen but the foundation rests on what the ACC does. I know all conferences outside of the big 4 and the ACC will fight for their lives but if the ACC goes down then all bets are truly off and the repercussions are going to be far and wide. And once again we are the not so pretty girl (at least in their eyes) hoping to be asked to dance by someone.

I know this is an extreme scenario but I've spent the last few days reading a lot of stories and blogs from reporters who cover the SEC, PAC-12, Big-12 and Big-10 and they aren't talking about the Big East or MWC. They are mainly talking about the ACC and what happens to the exit fee for Maryland. And most are saying they are standing pat until the Maryland issue is resolved.

I like everything about your post. I think that all points are valid and possible scenarios for the future. Not as a point of debate or dissention, but why is the ACC the conference that will be poached? Granted, I know most people on this board do not like the ACC and most articles that have emerged around the country say the same thing. But to me, if the stars align for 4 16-team conferences, the Big 12 stands to be the most logical conference that is dissolved. The PAC 12 has 12 teams and would need 4. Are there 4 options out west more viable than Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. The Big 10, needing 2 teams, could easily absorb Kansas and Kansas St. This would leave the SEC with 2 slots. I do not think that Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina, will allow FSU, Clemson, and/or Georgia Tech into the league and why would the SEC want them? They bring nothing to the table in terms of new markets. The SEC could go after VIrginia Tech and NC State, but would either leave? State would benefit greatly from moving as they would become the best football team in the state. Assuming both bolted for the SEC, then they are replaced by West Virginia and UConn. Then you would fill out the remaining two slots with USF and Notre Dame provided ND can't work out a deal with the other conferences to make the playoffs as an independent. The bottom line is that there are currently 68 football playing schools in the ACC, Pac 12, Big 10, Bid 12, and Big East and Notre Dame. Eliminating those schools moving up from lowere tier conferences, that means that 4 teams will be left without chairs to the grown-ups table. Those four may very well be Baylor, TCU, Iowa St. and Cinicnatti.

The Big XII has a huge TV deal locked in for something like 12 more seasons. Texas is able to keep it's network under this deal. The Big XII looks to have gone from "on the brink of death" to one of the more stable conferences. It does seem that the ACC is the most vulnerable at this point. Of course, this is all "subject to change."

Doesn't the ACC have a TV Deal locked up as well? I thought that they just signed one.

I believe they did, but I don't think it was at the level of the Big XII. The point of my post wasn't that the contract was big, but that it is a perfect scenario for Texas--which could damper any desires to leave. With the B1G's money (a lot more than the ACC's), if that's what a school wants that's where it will go. The ACC is the lowest of the 5 major conferences currently, and appears that isn't changing soon.

[firemoose]

The Big 10 will not take Va. Tech or Clemson. Only members of the American Association of Universities are invited to the Big 10. The ACC members who are members of that association are UNC, UVa., Ga. Tech and Duke. What I have heard several times on various radio shows is that Maryland is, indeed, the key. They get out for less than $50 million and the feeding frenzy is on. What I have heard on the radio is UNC (Big 10 commish is a UNC grad) and UVa to the Big 10. Ga. Tech is a possibility, but UVa is the first choice. Va. Tech and NC St. would go to the $EC and Florida St. and Clemson, and possibly Ga. Tech, would go to the Big 12. Duke, Wake, BC and Miami are left scrambling for a home.

You are correct about Va Tech and Clemson and the Big 10. I meant to say Big-12 concerning them but I just got off a 14 hour drive and my mind was fried. There was one story several weeks ago concerning Clemson and the Big-10 but it was corrected the next day.

I hadn't forgot about UVa but most coaches and reporters I've talked to were more concerned with the Carolina schools than them. Sorry but I should have waited to respond until I got some sleep then I might have put the schools in the right places.

[hapapp]

Actually, I believe Nebraska has lost membership in the AAU. However, they were members when admitted.

[newtoasu]

Actually, I believe Nebraska has lost membership in the AAU. However, they were members when admitted.

You are correct Jerry. They were booted in the summer of 2011, about a year after accepting the Big 10 invitation.

While the Big 10 may use the excuse of the AAU, I'm sure they would allow Notre Dame, a non-AAU member in. The AAU is only used when it comes to schools that are not as desirable.

[hapapp]

While the Big 10 may use the excuse of the AAU, I'm sure they would allow Notre Dame, a non-AAU member in. The AAU is only used when it comes to schools that are not as desirable.


I agree. It makes for a nice way of avoiding those who aren't "worthy" of consideration.

Are you going to Frisco again this year?

[newtoasu]

Are you going to Frisco again this year?

Yes, but not necessarily by choice. I always buy two tickets before they are open to public sale, hoping to see ASU there. Last year I turned my $70 into $680 ($800 - $120 Stub Hub fee) from an NDSU fan.

I was hoping for the same thing this year but the NDSU fans purchased tickets when they opened them up to the general public in August. I listed on Stub Hub but no one would take my $200 each bottom line, so I will be sitting In the middle of the NDSU side at the 45 yard line rooting for Sam Houston. The NDSU fans I see on AGS are really obnoxious. Worse than any of the Ga So fans or others. Would like to see them get spanked just to take the wind out of their sails, but I must admit the Bison look very good.