11-1 and SBC champs per Massey Ratings

[EastHallApp]

In regards to our chances for 11-1 or 12-0, here is a question I pose to some who may be more knowledgeable about our talent level over the last several years.

I propose that it is EXPECTED that our talent level this year should be significantly higher than 3-4 years ago when we had a full roster of FCS recruited players and have been gradually recruiting at FBS over last few years. With that FACT in mind, is it not reasonable to believe that our 2017 roster should be the best we have ever fielded from a talent/skillset perspective? Assuming that to be true, shouldn't we also, reasonably EXPECT, that this team should be the best ever fielded at App, to date? I know we have to mentally rise to the occasion as well.

Therefore, is is fair for the fans to believe that if we use our talent and don't lay any eggs, we should go 11-1. If we can really show up big on day one at UGA then we could go 12-0.

I agree with you from a talent perspective. I wouldn't go so far as to say we should go 11-1, because even if we're favored in 11 games, actually getting through all 11 without a slip-up is probably mathematically unlikely (though certainly doable).

[WVAPPeer]

We've seen how hard it is for any team, be it Alabama or Western Michigan, to go thru the regular season undefeated - WM played no one the level of UGA and most probably Northwestern would be on par with WF ---
12-0 would be FANTASTIC
11-1 would be GREAT
10-2 would be GOOD
9-3 would be PAR

[firemoose]

In regards to our chances for 11-1 or 12-0, here is a question I pose to some who may be more knowledgeable about our talent level over the last several years.

I propose that it is EXPECTED that our talent level this year should be significantly higher than 3-4 years ago when we had a full roster of FCS recruited players and have been gradually recruiting at FBS over last few years. With that FACT in mind, is it not reasonable to believe that our 2017 roster should be the best we have ever fielded from a talent/skillset perspective? Assuming that to be true, shouldn't we also, reasonably EXPECT, that this team should be the best ever fielded at App, to date? I know we have to mentally rise to the occasion as well.

Therefore, is is fair for the fans to believe that if we use our talent and don't lay any eggs, we should go 11-1. If we can really show up big on day one at UGA then we could go 12-0.

In an ideal world you would be correct. But this is the real world and you are missing a few key pieces. Have we been recruiting a better quality player over the past 3-4 years? Yes. Does that mean it's a FACT that the current roster is the best we've ever fielded at SOME position groups? Yes. But you're forgetting that it's not a FACT at EVERY position group.

Since 2014 we've had some misses in recruiting at some positions and also some key losses within those same groups.

OL-From 2014 we lost one, two others have limited playing time, have not really produced to this point, and they HAVE to step up this year. From 2015 we lost three of four. Only Vic Johnson remains. And all of our 2016 players will be Rs Fr with no game experience.

DL-We only signed one DT in 2014. And we've lost two DE's from that class (one left and the other to career ending injury). From 2015 we only signed one DT and he has very limited game experience. And we lost another DE to attrition. Our only other DE from that class will see his first significant playing time this year. From 2016 we signed no DT's. Our only 2016 DT is a walkon. And the rest of our DL's from 2016 are also Rs Fr with no game experience. And until a few days ago we had no DT's for 2017. And the entire class are true freshmen.

LB-We signed four in 2014. Two are still in those positions. One has moved to DE. And the fourth is currently in the hospital. For 2015 we signed five. One was a JUCO who is now done. One left the team to go to a JUCO. One has seen significant playing time in the rotation and the other two have less time and have to step up this year. For 2016 we only signed one ILB. We missed on another and didn't sign any OLB's at all. And our only LB is also a Rs Fr with no game reps yet.

That's our front seven for the 3-4 and our OL. And that's not counting a few other key losses at other position groups. But every team has those so I'm not adding them in. Just counting two of four groups on D and our OL where we are lacking depth and experience. Until we get our 2016 Rs Fr some game experience and get our 2017's on the field with at least a year under their belt then we will not reach our full potential and possibly be the best roster we've had.

[CVAPP]

I think we are legit 10+ win team this year if Taylor Lamb stays healthy throughout. Taylor may not have a laser rocket arm, or receivers to throw it to if he did, but his game management skills are superlative. Without him we still finish bowl eligible.

[AppinVA]

It's reasonable, but you have to account for injuries, the competition getting better than expected. Nothing's done in a vacuum.

[hapapp]

It's reasonable, but you have to account for injuries, the competition getting better than expected. Nothing's done in a vacuum.

I've never been a fan of counting chickens before they hatch. While the past can be a predictor of the future, it's always dangerous to assume that other teams aren't capable of improving. As AppinVA said injuries and other unforseen incidents can play a huge role in a seasons outcome. In the last month we have potentially lost 3 starters/key contributors. Yes, the potential is there for a great season but it seems premature to expect 11 wins.

[AtlAppMan]

In an ideal world you would be correct. But this is the real world and you are missing a few key pieces. Have we been recruiting a better quality player over the past 3-4 years? Yes. Does that mean it's a FACT that the current roster is the best we've ever fielded at SOME position groups? Yes. But you're forgetting that it's not a FACT at EVERY position group.

Since 2014 we've had some misses in recruiting at some positions and also some key losses within those same groups.

Moose, that is the kind of fact based analysis I was fishing for. I said earlier that it is EXPECTED, I should have said IN THEORY, we have upgraded but you have broken it down well. So we may or may not field the best team ever. It sounds like we are on an upward path for recruiting but have not significantly differentiated ourselves yet at a team wide level from our our own talent level of 3-4 yrs ago. As a result, it is fair to say that it is reasonable to assume that our overall team is probably similar or only moderately better, at best, from our recent teams.

[bigdaddyg]

I believe that the breakdown Moose gave really puts recruiting in a nutshell. It's apparently more difficult for teams at our level to get the bigger guys than it is the smaller (athlete type) guys. We bring in lots of 6'1 190 lb dudes but the 6'6" 280 hog mollies are tougher- of course there just aren't as many bigs as there are smalls. It goes without saying- games are won and lost at the line. I have grown to kind of dislike the record predictions. I believe that we should have a really good team and 9-3 is our expected basement considering our weaker conference schedule. We have beaten to death the bowl tie in thing but this discussion again reminds us that 8-4 or 10-2 really is the same come Bowl time. At any rate I'm just hoping that we roll over some teams, beat Wake in front of 35k and at least scare the bajeesus out of UGA.

[bcoach]

I would add one other factor. We will not have as dramatic a difference in my opinion as some other programs that move up due to the great talent we brought in at the FCS level. That is not to say we will not be better, just not as big a difference as some other programs. We really did have a head start over programs such as Liberty, Coastal and others. Our recruiting really has been a level above for many years. Again in my humble opinion.

[WVAPPeer]

For pure talent on the field at one time the 2007 team would be hard to beat - yes, we were limited and had no depth but man, the main guys were extremely talented - If I am not mistaken, about 7 of those guys on that roster were drafted and several more played pro football and that's not counting Kevin Richardson, Pierre Banks, Scott Suttle, Nic Cardwell, etc. - Don't get me wrong - clearly we have a better roster of players now as I am really only referring to the main guys of 2007...

[MtnDevil95]

I agree with Moose that this team has a feasible shot at a 12-0 season. Injuries notwithstanding, a healthy team has a reasonable expectation to win 10 games this season (including a bowl). Winning a second Sun Belt title would be huge, but 10-2 and dropping both P5 games could stagnate App's rise in national recognition/respect.

I tend to think taking 1 from UGa or Wake would be a bigger boost the growth on the national stage than another Sun Belt title or 3rd Camellia Bowl . . .

[EastHallApp]

I tend to think taking 1 from UGa or Wake would be a bigger boost the growth on the national stage than another Sun Belt title or 3rd Camellia Bowl . . .

No doubt about it, especially if it's UGA. Nobody nationally cares about Wake, but it would be significant in-state plus give us a shot at 11-1 and the top 25, which would get us some national attention.