This. There are countless examples of kids who weren’t rated or in some cases didn’t even have a profile before committing late in the process, then getting a 3* rating immediately after that.Yosef84 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:50 amThere is absolutely a correlation between the "talent" as reflected in star ratings vs. performance at the top of the P5. I've never seen a study focused on G5 but that's where it breaks down. The 4 and 5 start kids are vetted pretty well but the 3 star and below are not very reliable. The presence of a 4 or 5 star rating is a good assurance of a talented roster but the absence of those ratings does not really reflect an absence of talent.citroknight wrote: ↑Mon Dec 16, 2019 11:51 pmI need to look for links but overall, the talent a school brings in is generally a good indicator of performance. At the very least when you compare against your immediate conference peers since they always make up the majority of a team's schedule.bigdaddyg wrote: ↑Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:32 amThis topic has been debated and beaten to death but it’s still interesting. How on earth does any service know how truly talented a particular kid is. Some are obvious- the 6’4” 250lb fast tackling machines who dominate are probably legit 5 stars. The tweeners that we get the 6’2” 210lb linebackers who come in and add an inch and 10-20 lbs of muscle who blossom into beasts and have chips on their shoulders defy the ridiculous ratings system. I would love to see a breakdown (I know someone did this for our last few classes) of some of middling P5 rosters that shows the amount of playing time in relation to final high school rating. Basically is there a metric that shows how close or far off was a kids rating? It’s all subjective so probably not. I coached a good bit of rec and travel baseball and it always drove me nuts when guys would gush over kids who “killed it” it the batting cage or “threw gas” inside a batting center. I liked to say wait until that same kid faces live pitching with people watching and when the lights come on. Same for the flamethrower- wait until a batter gets in the box. I hate to use the example but I’ll never forget when Armanti was called the training camp MVP. That was the kiss of death. We know how that panned out.
Of course it's not 100% as easy as just lining up a conference by recruiting rankings and saying done, this is how the standings will be. Like you alluded to, there's subjectivity in evaluating a kid. One scout may grade a little different than another. Some kids may be graded correctly but are late bloomers or are really helped by coaching development.
You also have to keep in mind the history of the recruiting services. They've generally been subscription based. So to drive up interest among the bigger and more involved fan bases, their recruits get a slight boost. A RB recruit that's a 2 star for App can all of a sudden become a 3 star if UNC or NC State swipe him away.
In any case, the rankings have clearly underrated App since we moved up. The one year our class was at the top of the Sun Belt, they were still wrong on the individual players. Almost all our top-rated recruits that year washed out, while the guys 247 deemed worthless turned out to be program cornerstones.
