CLT Observer - Season Prediction

[VNova]

Not a statistician, but I believe it would be the mean of college football teams that everyone would approach, and sample size is key to increasing confidence in the outcome for any one team. Because football games are a zero-sum event, one win will be offset by one loss. Therefore, the mean will be 50% wins. Not every team will hit that, and certainly not every year, but if you look at all teams they will. Here is the great part, if you exceed the total prediction in wins, then someone else has to exceed it in losses. Changes in coaching, quarterbacks, etc. tend to reduce your ability to stray from the mean. App may just be special and over time win 10 games per season forever, but that isn't generally the way reality works.

I am also counting on math to help Charlotte not have any more 1 win seasons for a while!

Lets check this out: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_ ... 19/FBS.pdf

Appalachian State is #15 in the FBS at 64.4% after 91 years of play, including bowl and playoff games. In the regular season of 12 games, that's 7.7 wins. Our mean is a 7 regular season based on that alone. Add in the bowl game and we jump to an average of 8 wins a season. Include the championship and our average is 9.

Statistically speaking (utilizing only the mean of course), 91 years and 981 games has already established that as our average. If we go 6-6, we are statistically below average (4-8 season in 2014 comes to mind). As another example, if Michigan goes below 8-4 in the regular season, they are statistically below average (.73 win percentage over 1331 games in 138 years).

You are correct though, for the entirety of the FBS world, 6-6 is average. For 41 teams, their average is less than 6-6. For 38 teams, it is above 6-6. For 51 teams, it is 6-6. With the exception of Coastal Carolina and ODU, every team with a 7-5+ record average has had a tradition of winning for 50+ years.


With that, my prediction matches this article, except a loss to Troy seems more likely than to La-la.

App would have to go 0-12 for 12 straight seasons to fall below 50%. My numbers could be wrong, but it sounds good.

Close! We've played 981 games thus far. We have 29 ties, which is a half loss/half win for the win percentage. So from the number of losses at the end of 2018 sitting at 335 and wins at 617, the real numbers are 349.5 and 631.5. That's 282 games to 1263, the lowest number of games required. It would take a total of 23.5 seasons of 0-12 to drop to .500 win percentage the soonest.


In short, not likely to happen!

[BeauFoster]

Not a statistician, but I believe it would be the mean of college football teams that everyone would approach, and sample size is key to increasing confidence in the outcome for any one team. Because football games are a zero-sum event, one win will be offset by one loss. Therefore, the mean will be 50% wins. Not every team will hit that, and certainly not every year, but if you look at all teams they will. Here is the great part, if you exceed the total prediction in wins, then someone else has to exceed it in losses. Changes in coaching, quarterbacks, etc. tend to reduce your ability to stray from the mean. App may just be special and over time win 10 games per season forever, but that isn't generally the way reality works.

I am also counting on math to help Charlotte not have any more 1 win seasons for a while!

Lets check this out: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_ ... 19/FBS.pdf

Appalachian State is #15 in the FBS at 64.4% after 91 years of play, including bowl and playoff games. In the regular season of 12 games, that's 7.7 wins. Our mean is a 7 regular season based on that alone. Add in the bowl game and we jump to an average of 8 wins a season. Include the championship and our average is 9.

Statistically speaking (utilizing only the mean of course), 91 years and 981 games has already established that as our average. If we go 6-6, we are statistically below average (4-8 season in 2014 comes to mind). As another example, if Michigan goes below 8-4 in the regular season, they are statistically below average (.73 win percentage over 1331 games in 138 years).

You are correct though, for the entirety of the FBS world, 6-6 is average. For 41 teams, their average is less than 6-6. For 38 teams, it is above 6-6. For 51 teams, it is 6-6. With the exception of Coastal Carolina and ODU, every team with a 7-5+ record average has had a tradition of winning for 50+ years.


With that, my prediction matches this article, except a loss to Troy seems more likely than to La-la.

App would have to go 0-12 for 12 straight seasons to fall below 50%. My numbers could be wrong, but it sounds good.

Close! We've played 981 games thus far. We have 29 ties, which is a half loss/half win for the win percentage. So from the number of losses at the end of 2018 sitting at 335 and wins at 617, the real numbers are 349.5 and 631.5. That's 282 games to 1263, the lowest number of games required. It would take a total of 23.5 seasons of 0-12 to drop to .500 win percentage the soonest.


In short, not likely to happen!

Not even WCU could pull off 23+ winless seasons.

[EastHallApp]

Healy could be worse than Lambert. Lambert was looked upon very favorably by your fanbase.

Drink has been a successful OC for many years. If you’re going to question App’s coaching change I’d look on the defensive side.

App will be a three TD favorite vs UNCC.

Roof is definitely not a downgrade from Brown.

I hope you're right. I don't think you can make such a definitive statement at this point.

How do you figure? Roof has over two decades of experience as a DC. Brown has one where he inherited a boatload of talent.

Because more experienced doesn’t automatically mean better.

[AppSt94]

Healy could be worse than Lambert. Lambert was looked upon very favorably by your fanbase.

Drink has been a successful OC for many years. If you’re going to question App’s coaching change I’d look on the defensive side.

App will be a three TD favorite vs UNCC.

Roof is definitely not a downgrade from Brown.

I hope you're right. I don't think you can make such a definitive statement at this point.

How do you figure? Roof has over two decades of experience as a DC. Brown has one where he inherited a boatload of talent.

Because more experienced doesn’t automatically mean better.

In this case, I respectfully disagree.

[EastHallApp]

Roof is definitely not a downgrade from Brown.

I hope you're right. I don't think you can make such a definitive statement at this point.

How do you figure? Roof has over two decades of experience as a DC. Brown has one where he inherited a boatload of talent.

Because more experienced doesn’t automatically mean better.

In this case, I respectfully disagree.

Again, I hope you’re correct. Roof is inheriting a boatload of talent too.

[AppinVA]

Not a statistician, but I believe it would be the mean of college football teams that everyone would approach, and sample size is key to increasing confidence in the outcome for any one team. Because football games are a zero-sum event, one win will be offset by one loss. Therefore, the mean will be 50% wins. Not every team will hit that, and certainly not every year, but if you look at all teams they will. Here is the great part, if you exceed the total prediction in wins, then someone else has to exceed it in losses. Changes in coaching, quarterbacks, etc. tend to reduce your ability to stray from the mean. App may just be special and over time win 10 games per season forever, but that isn't generally the way reality works.

I am also counting on math to help Charlotte not have any more 1 win seasons for a while!

Lets check this out: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_ ... 19/FBS.pdf

Appalachian State is #15 in the FBS at 64.4% after 91 years of play, including bowl and playoff games. In the regular season of 12 games, that's 7.7 wins. Our mean is a 7 regular season based on that alone. Add in the bowl game and we jump to an average of 8 wins a season. Include the championship and our average is 9.

Statistically speaking (utilizing only the mean of course), 91 years and 981 games has already established that as our average. If we go 6-6, we are statistically below average (4-8 season in 2014 comes to mind). As another example, if Michigan goes below 8-4 in the regular season, they are statistically below average (.73 win percentage over 1331 games in 138 years).

You are correct though, for the entirety of the FBS world, 6-6 is average. For 41 teams, their average is less than 6-6. For 38 teams, it is above 6-6. For 51 teams, it is 6-6. With the exception of Coastal Carolina and ODU, every team with a 7-5+ record average has had a tradition of winning for 50+ years.


With that, my prediction matches this article, except a loss to Troy seems more likely than to La-la.

App would have to go 0-12 for 12 straight seasons to fall below 50%. My numbers could be wrong, but it sounds good.

Close! We've played 981 games thus far. We have 29 ties, which is a half loss/half win for the win percentage. So from the number of losses at the end of 2018 sitting at 335 and wins at 617, the real numbers are 349.5 and 631.5. That's 282 games to 1263, the lowest number of games required. It would take a total of 23.5 seasons of 0-12 to drop to .500 win percentage the soonest.


In short, not likely to happen!

Not even WCU could pull off 23+ winless seasons.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Nepysk5rOf4

[BallantyneApp]

Not a statistician, but I believe it would be the mean of college football teams that everyone would approach, and sample size is key to increasing confidence in the outcome for any one team. Because football games are a zero-sum event, one win will be offset by one loss. Therefore, the mean will be 50% wins. Not every team will hit that, and certainly not every year, but if you look at all teams they will. Here is the great part, if you exceed the total prediction in wins, then someone else has to exceed it in losses. Changes in coaching, quarterbacks, etc. tend to reduce your ability to stray from the mean. App may just be special and over time win 10 games per season forever, but that isn't generally the way reality works.

I am also counting on math to help Charlotte not have any more 1 win seasons for a while!

This is not how it works, but interesting thought process.

[Yosef84]

I really don't understand the concerns that some folks have about Roof. I understand that his tenure at GT was less than stellar but winning at GT is a tough ask for ANYBODY. He has elite experience including a National Championship at Auburn. I like what I've heard from him and believe he was an outstanding hire.

Nothing is a guarantee, so of course we still need to see the results on the field but I think Roof and Drink are both going to have great seasons at App. That's my 100% unapologetic homer opinion.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

Here is my main concern for this year. Our defense is built around keeping bodies fresh until the end of the game and we end up wearing down the opposing team's offense. At the end of the games is when we tended to unleash the defense on the opponents. We had a loaded offense last year, but Satterfield had a conservative play-calling scheme. That conservative play-calling scheme was necessary to keep the defense off the field and fresh until the end of the game. I do believe Drink will open up the playbook and increase the offensive efficiency, however, I have have concerns that our defense will suffer as a result. I don't know that it matters who the D-coordinator is if our undersized front line is on the field too long. We will probably be fine against 75% of our opponents, but we are going to have a lot of high scoring games, and may run into some trouble against P5's and some of the top G5 programs.

[ericsaid]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My only competitor is the person I was yesterday <a href="https://t.co/uEHhbKtrhr">pic.twitter.co ... </p>&mdash; David Baldwin-Griffin (@Davidtbe5) <a href=" 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Do you guys have standing dinner plans when you’re in Boone?

I did get a Tweet back from DBG so you could say we're best buds. If you didn't notice though Zach is in the background and Drink is in there. I guess they have been working throughout the summer which would appear to mean that David has been in Boone for a period of time?

Note: The reason I posted it was to show not only David but also Zach and Drink.

[bigdaddyg]

Here is my main concern for this year. Our defense is built around keeping bodies fresh until the end of the game and we end up wearing down the opposing team's offense. At the end of the games is when we tended to unleash the defense on the opponents. We had a loaded offense last year, but Satterfield had a conservative play-calling scheme. That conservative play-calling scheme was necessary to keep the defense off the field and fresh until the end of the game. I do believe Drink will open up the playbook and increase the offensive efficiency, however, I have have concerns that our defense will suffer as a result. I don't know that it matters who the D-coordinator is if our undersized front line is on the field too long. We will probably be fine against 75% of our opponents, but we are going to have a lot of high scoring games, and may run into some trouble against P5's and some of the top G5 programs.

That is a good observation and hopefully our offensive system will be adjusted accordingly. With the stable of backs we have it would be a shame to abandon the run too much. Our offense should be a nightmare for opposing coordinators to scheme against.

[ericsaid]

Here is my main concern for this year. Our defense is built around keeping bodies fresh until the end of the game and we end up wearing down the opposing team's offense. At the end of the games is when we tended to unleash the defense on the opponents. We had a loaded offense last year, but Satterfield had a conservative play-calling scheme. That conservative play-calling scheme was necessary to keep the defense off the field and fresh until the end of the game. I do believe Drink will open up the playbook and increase the offensive efficiency, however, I have have concerns that our defense will suffer as a result. I don't know that it matters who the D-coordinator is if our undersized front line is on the field too long. We will probably be fine against 75% of our opponents, but we are going to have a lot of high scoring games, and may run into some trouble against P5's and some of the top G5 programs.

That is a good observation and hopefully our offensive system will be adjusted accordingly. With the stable of backs we have it would be a shame to abandon the run too much. Our offense should be a nightmare for opposing coordinators to scheme against.

"I do believe Drink will open up the playbook and increase the offensive efficiency, however, I have have concerns that our defense will suffer as a result."

Open up Drink's playbook. There will likely be more complex systems at play in a Drink offense but he seems to be an intelligent guy. It's also not like App is switching from a run based offense to the Air Raid. Drink looks for balance and runs Pro Style concepts. He certainly should be analytical enough to understand that if the power of the team is on defense, you ride them. Don't make it more difficult than it has to be.

But, if the offense can be opened up and big plays hit, you go with it. He isn't likely to hold back on calling his shots if the shots are there to be made.

[Yosef10]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My only competitor is the person I was yesterday <a href="https://t.co/uEHhbKtrhr">pic.twitter.co ... </p>&mdash; David Baldwin-Griffin (@Davidtbe5) <a href=" 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Do you guys have standing dinner plans when you’re in Boone?

I did get a Tweet back from DBG so you could say we're best buds. If you didn't notice though Zach is in the background and Drink is in there. I guess they have been working throughout the summer which would appear to mean that David has been in Boone for a period of time?

Note: The reason I posted it was to show not only David but also Zach and Drink.

He enrolled end of June.

[ericsaid]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My only competitor is the person I was yesterday <a href="https://t.co/uEHhbKtrhr">pic.twitter.co ... </p>&mdash; David Baldwin-Griffin (@Davidtbe5) <a href=" 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Do you guys have standing dinner plans when you’re in Boone?

I did get a Tweet back from DBG so you could say we're best buds. If you didn't notice though Zach is in the background and Drink is in there. I guess they have been working throughout the summer which would appear to mean that David has been in Boone for a period of time?

Note: The reason I posted it was to show not only David but also Zach and Drink.

He enrolled end of June.

Gotcha. 2nd Summer Session? Not sure what App's Academic Calendar looks like.

[BeauFoster]

Here is my main concern for this year. Our defense is built around keeping bodies fresh until the end of the game and we end up wearing down the opposing team's offense. At the end of the games is when we tended to unleash the defense on the opponents. We had a loaded offense last year, but Satterfield had a conservative play-calling scheme. That conservative play-calling scheme was necessary to keep the defense off the field and fresh until the end of the game. I do believe Drink will open up the playbook and increase the offensive efficiency, however, I have have concerns that our defense will suffer as a result. I don't know that it matters who the D-coordinator is if our undersized front line is on the field too long. We will probably be fine against 75% of our opponents, but we are going to have a lot of high scoring games, and may run into some trouble against P5's and some of the top G5 programs.

I agree with this in theory, however I still think we run the ball a lot this season, and do so effectively. And the best FCS defense we ever had (or darn close) was also one of the most explosive offenses - 2006. I always felt that season if we got 1-2 defensive stop in a game, we would win. No one could score at our pace or stop us. I think this season could set up much the same.

[Saint3333]

I think the power of this team will be the offense. So many weapons everywhere and one of the best lines in the conference.