Athlon 2019

[Boroneer10]

I guess i should come to expect it from a few on here but if you’re penciling in UNC as an automatic win you really have another thing coming. They have plenty of talent and now they have the coaching to supplement that talent. Sure, we could definitely come out of there with a win but it’s just a likely a loss. And no we will NOT be favored by Vegas in Chapel Hill. Probably be UNC -3.5 or around there. And no, I’m not a guy who roots for UNC in basketball or anything else. Just calling it like i see it.

I don't think anybody on this board thinks UNC is an "automatic win". In fact, I am not sure if any opponent is an automatic. That is not what is being suggested. If we look at our schedule there are opponents we should definitely win, probably win, toss ups, and probably lose. Let's be real, we could LOSE all our games but that is very unlikely. We could WIN all of our games and that is possible but many things would have to fall into place and some good fortune come our way.

The game we are not supposed to win is USC but it should not be considered unwinnable. It depends on how both teams mature throughout the year. If we grow and improve our chances are better but if we plateau or go south it looks bad for us in Nov. The tough games that we can win but could go either way are Troy, UNC, GA South, ULL. We have to play at our peak level to win those games but that should be expected. The other games are not automatic but if we play to our abilities we should win.

Multiple comments on the very first page of this thread implying we shouldn’t lose in chapel hill.

We shouldn’t lose to them.

If ya wanna be delusional then have at it!

Look I know you’re excited for your Tarheels and Mack Brown being back and what not, but look at the facts. We have the same number of scholarship players as UNC, we develop our players better, and we have an extremely experienced group coming back. They have maybe 3 players on defense that would be inline to start on our defense, and they have maybe 2 linemen that would start on our offense. What about this game scares you so much, besides having to decide if you are going to wear black and gold or blue and white on game day?

[AppSt94]

If you don’t believe that we have some concerns then your hatred for all things light blue are clouding your objectivity. First off, they have the same amount of scholarships but there is less of a talent disparity from 1-85 than with us. Their offense is in pretty good shape and if they get a QB that can exploit our Cornerbacks then it could be a long day. They are a little thin in the front 7 on defense but it isn’t void of talent. One thing that you seem to be forgetting is that our offense is breaking in a new playbook. We won’t be proficient with enough of the playbook after three weeks to air it out.

[Boroneer10]

If you don’t believe that we have some concerns then your hatred for all things light blue are clouding your objectivity. First off, they have the same amount of scholarships but there is less of a talent disparity from 1-85 than with us. Their offense is in pretty good shape and if they get a QB that can exploit our Cornerbacks then it could be a long day. They are a little thin in the front 7 on defense but it isn’t void of talent. One thing that you seem to be forgetting is that our offense is breaking in a new playbook. We won’t be proficient with enough of the playbook after three weeks to air it out.

I’m not that worried about Corner. Jean-Charles played well in a reserve role last year, and Jolly was supposedly one of the best players at any position in the spring.

[AppSt94]

Looking at the statistics of G5 vs P5 in 2017. The G5 was 15-90. The average win total for the G5 winners had an average win total of 8. The average win total of the P5 losers was 4. Bottom line, if we win this game, and they win 4 games on the year. Yawn

[QueencityApp]

I think we all can agree that this upcoming season is shaping up to potentially be the perfect storm in terms of the players we are returning and the P5 teams we play not being our regular top 25 opponent. We joke about scheduling the P5’s well in advance and then as the season approaches those teams somehow fall into the top 10.

UNC is ripe for the picking this year and we need to take care of business on Sep 21st or else it will be the same ol little App State trying to hang with the big boys. This is the season we get the P5 monkey off our back.

[Yosef84]

If the App/UNC game had been tagged onto the end of the 2018 season, we would have almost certainly destroyed them (short of a major injury and GS style melt down). Projecting 2019 with all the changes on both sides (coaching/recruiting/graduation) depends on assumptions. Some folks seem to believe their assumptions are facts. I'm a HUGE homer which is the reason I don't bet on App games. I ALWAYS believe we can and often should win these games going into it, but I also recognize that there are many factors that sometimes result in us falling short. The day will come when those factors line up in our favor again. We've come a tremendous distance in the last few days and played very well in some very big games. We should/could have won at least three of them (Tennessee, Wake Forest, Penn State) but caught some bad breaks (Missed kicks and fumble into the end zone for winning score at TN, off sides call on punt AND blocked FG against Wake).

The difference is that App isn't relying on a perfect storm to beat UNC (or even SC). We need to execute and play well, but those are winnable games (especially UNC). Both of those opponents have a lot of talent on their rosters though, so we absolutely can't make the assumption that our assumptions will all fall in place. I sure hope they will and I'll be watching and yelling my loudest.

No reason to call someone a Tarheel fan just because he/she doesn't make the same assumptions you do.

[Saint3333]

if we win this game, and they win 4 games on the year

Sounds like a near average year for them, I’ll take it.

[NewApp]

if we win this game, and they win 4 games on the year

Sounds like a near average year for them, I’ll take it.

They might be a better team with Mack Brown coaching. Was he hired in time to get a recruiting year in?

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

One thing our players won't be used to while playing in Chapel Hill is the blinding glare off the empty bleachers.

[sixtoes9134]

One thing our players won't be used to while playing in Chapel Hill is the blinding glare off the empty bleachers.

we will make up for that.

[MountaineerChemist10]

So they have us losing to both UNC and USC.....

You don’t?

Hell no. I can see us beating UNC. More of a toss up vs. USC.

[AppStFan1]

If you don’t believe that we have some concerns then your hatred for all things light blue are clouding your objectivity. First off, they have the same amount of scholarships but there is less of a talent disparity from 1-85 than with us. Their offense is in pretty good shape and if they get a QB that can exploit our Cornerbacks then it could be a long day. They are a little thin in the front 7 on defense but it isn’t void of talent. One thing that you seem to be forgetting is that our offense is breaking in a new playbook. We won’t be proficient with enough of the playbook after three weeks to air it out.

A couple things that you are overstating here.

Drink is not completely throwing away our playbook and overhauling things. He is going to cater our offense to our talent. He has said that the big difference in 2019 is that we are going to throw the ball more, go under center some, and go at a faster tempo. We changed a lot in the offensive playcalling for the bowl game and beat MTSU by a lot more than expected. We just had a few weeks for that so there is no reason to think we can't be very good on offense by the UNC game.

UNC does have a good offense but they did lose their QB to Arkansas State and you are making it sound like we should not be solid at cornerback. By all accounts the two projected starters are good. UNC has a very good RB and some weapons but we do as well. I think they may score 30 or so on us but we could score that much on them as well. Both teams lost some key pieces but one thing we have over UNC is that we have a little more speed at the skill positions.

You make it sound like we should be prepared to lose by 30 points or so with no shot to win. Neither App State or UNC should expect to lose this game. It could truly go either way but I am going in with a good feeling that we can win this game.

[AppStFan1]

If the App/UNC game had been tagged onto the end of the 2018 season, we would have almost certainly destroyed them (short of a major injury and GS style melt down). Projecting 2019 with all the changes on both sides (coaching/recruiting/graduation) depends on assumptions. Some folks seem to believe their assumptions are facts. I'm a HUGE homer which is the reason I don't bet on App games. I ALWAYS believe we can and often should win these games going into it, but I also recognize that there are many factors that sometimes result in us falling short. The day will come when those factors line up in our favor again. We've come a tremendous distance in the last few days and played very well in some very big games. We should/could have won at least three of them (Tennessee, Wake Forest, Penn State) but caught some bad breaks (Missed kicks and fumble into the end zone for winning score at TN, off sides call on punt AND blocked FG against Wake).

The difference is that App isn't relying on a perfect storm to beat UNC (or even SC). We need to execute and play well, but those are winnable games (especially UNC). Both of those opponents have a lot of talent on their rosters though, so we absolutely can't make the assumption that our assumptions will all fall in place. I sure hope they will and I'll be watching and yelling my loudest.

No reason to call someone a Tarheel fan just because he/she doesn't make the same assumptions you do.

We are all homers to a certain extent but I try to look at it objectively. I don't expect to win all P5 games and in fact this is the first season I came in thinking we could and should win one of these games. We played Penn State much closer than I expected last year and the way our offense changed in the bowl game showed me that we can definitely open things up and be a lot more dangerous. We definitely don't need the perfect storm to win this game but we do have to play very well. This is not like with a game like UNCC where we did not play too great and still won big. UNC and South Carolina games are two times we indeed must play our A game but our A game is good enough to get wins this year for sure.

[AppSt94]

If you don’t believe that we have some concerns then your hatred for all things light blue are clouding your objectivity. First off, they have the same amount of scholarships but there is less of a talent disparity from 1-85 than with us. Their offense is in pretty good shape and if they get a QB that can exploit our Cornerbacks then it could be a long day. They are a little thin in the front 7 on defense but it isn’t void of talent. One thing that you seem to be forgetting is that our offense is breaking in a new playbook. We won’t be proficient with enough of the playbook after three weeks to air it out.

A couple things that you are overstating here.

Drink is not completely throwing away our playbook and overhauling things. He is going to cater our offense to our talent. He has said that the big difference in 2019 is that we are going to throw the ball more, go under center some, and go at a faster tempo. We changed a lot in the offensive playcalling for the bowl game and beat MTSU by a lot more than expected. We just had a few weeks for that so there is no reason to think we can't be very good on offense by the UNC game.

UNC does have a good offense but they did lose their QB to Arkansas State and you are making it sound like we should not be solid at cornerback. By all accounts the two projected starters are good. UNC has a very good RB and some weapons but we do as well. I think they may score 30 or so on us but we could score that much on them as well. Both teams lost some key pieces but one thing we have over UNC is that we have a little more speed at the skill positions.

You make it sound like we should be prepared to lose by 30 points or so with no shot to win. Neither App State or UNC should expect to lose this game. It could truly go either way but I am going in with a good feeling that we can win this game.

Are you sure my comments are overstated or are you just blowing them out of proportion?

First thing. Drink is using His playbook, so he is quite literally throwing out the old playbook. Sure there are some similarities in formations but the terminology is different and there is a lot to digest.

Secondly, I said “if’ they find a QBs and cornerback is our biggest weakness on defense. By all accounts, our new starters at corner are good, but unproven. Carolina has some athletes on the edge and a good QB can make for a long day for them.

Not sure how you interpret my comments has a prediction either way, but whatever.

[ericsaid]

So they have us losing to both UNC and USC.....

You don’t?

I don't. I think we split. Likely with the win coming against UNC.

Would be nice but history isn't kind to App in regards to P5 wins. Of course the opponents have mostly been different but App had no business losing to Wake Forest and likely should've beat Penn State with the way things were shaping up at the end.

[Yosef84]

History has nothing to do with 2019. Historically, we've played elite P5 teams. Neither of the teams on the 2019 schedule fit in that category. Both have potential but both are historically underachieving. There are absolutely no "givens" about either game and we will have to show up and play our A game, but these aren't money games. We are finally going into a season where every team on the schedule is against a "peer" that is winnable (not just lose-able by them). To me, that's the most exciting thing about this upcoming season. It is a true measure of our progress.

Maybe our slogan for the season should be "Time to take the step!"

[bigdaddyg]

Not a bad thread and good discussion along with excellent analysis both ways. First hard to imagine 4 regular season losses and also winning the east and the SB Championship. Secondly the “new coaching staff playbook” deal is way overblown. Roster is loaded and IMO we shouldn’t realistically need to throw much at all- not to say we can’t, won’t or shouldn’t but with the stable of backs we return along with ZT and the line. Wow!

I guess I should read every take before I say this but the Heels pretty much bring in a new staff as well. I’m personally not sold on the Mack is back thing. Remains to be seen.

Both games against the Carolinas should be good. We have the talent and hopefully game plans to compete and win both. I’m excited for this season.

[EastHallApp]

UNC does have a good offense but they did lose their QB to Arkansas State

This was overall a good post but I am just pulling out this point for length.

UNC technically “lost” their QB to stAte, but that’s largely because he wasn’t going to be their QB anymore. I don’t believe he’s even playing at stAte - he’s going to be a GA on their staff I think.

He was pretty much an FCS-level talent who maxed out his ability. The three freshmen they have now are all more gifted; of course, they are also freshmen. Hopefully Roof and co. are able to prove their value in that game by confusing an inexperienced QB.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

One thing Roof and Drink both have is experience beating UNC.

[Apple@chin1]

One thing Roof and Drink both have is experience beating UNC.

Let’s hope that they can add South Carolina to that list of victorious experiences.