AAC Hypothetical

[citroknight]

I've skimmed through James Madison and NDSU threads about this same topic and we sound almost as crazy as them.

Clemson doesn't join the SEC because the ACC gives them a path to the playoff every year. App can sit tight in the Sunbelt because this year proves the Sunbelt can provide a path to the NY6. We've been here 5 years and a lot of you feel entitled to a cotton bowl just because we beat a decent UNC and a crappy USC. Take the damn stairs.

If any realignment occurs I still favor luring 2 away from CUSA. A swap doesn't work because they're not going to just trade their 2 best eastern teams for 2 of our worst western ones no matter how tidy it looks on a map. Blowing up and starting over implies a decade of instability and growing pains from a league administrative standpoint. Small course corrections get us where we want to be, not massive over-steers.

Both those fan bases have some interesting divides. There's the NDSU fans that realize geography is rough and that if they were to ever rise, the MAC and MWC make the most sense. Then there's the ones that think they deserve either the B1G or Big 12 right away. Which is insane lol. I get that they've absolutely dominated FCS, but a lot of what conferences look for goes beyond winning and NDSU simply doesn't check a lot of those boxes. Which brings us to JMU. Who has a loud chunk of fans that similarly want AAC or bust. Which at least isn't as huge of a leap as FCS to P5 but even then, if the AAC wants to keep pushing for "P6", you don't do that by taking an FCS team.

[ericsaid]

I've skimmed through James Madison and NDSU threads about this same topic and we sound almost as crazy as them.

Clemson doesn't join the SEC because the ACC gives them a path to the playoff every year. App can sit tight in the Sunbelt because this year proves the Sunbelt can provide a path to the NY6. We've been here 5 years and a lot of you feel entitled to a cotton bowl just because we beat a decent UNC and a crappy USC. Take the damn stairs.

If any realignment occurs I still favor luring 2 away from CUSA. A swap doesn't work because they're not going to just trade their 2 best eastern teams for 2 of our worst western ones no matter how tidy it looks on a map. Blowing up and starting over implies a decade of instability and growing pains from a league administrative standpoint. Small course corrections get us where we want to be, not massive over-steers.

No one feels entitled to a Cotton Bowl. The reality is that App has a resume on par with the top of the AAC right now, yet, here App is getting passed up by USC (who lost to BYU) and is behind Boise State who also lost to BYU. If App had lost to any team with a losing record, even if it were BYU, they wouldn't have climbed back in the rankings. If you are misguided enough to believe that the Sun Belt provides a realistic path to the NY6 year in and year out, you need to take off the Sun faded glasses and read between the lines. App could lose to Wisconsin by one score and beat Wake Forest next year and run through the conference only to be put behind a two loss AAC team because they have gone undefeated in conference and won against a 3-9 P5 team.

The issue inherent is that App's future schedule includes Wisconsin, Clemson, Texas A&M, UNC, and USC again. While a loss to Wisconsin or Clemson while in the AAC wouldn't be a death sentence for NY6, in the Sun Belt it is. You don't have games against teams with the curb appeal to climb high enough to get to the Cotton Bowl, even if App lost a tight game. It just isn't there. There is no path unless you are 13-0. Replicating the success of this season isn't impossible but it will almost certainly be improbable.

The Clemson argument is a bit of a strawman as well. They play for a four team playoff while App plays for one spot that necessitates going undefeated. When was the last time App went undefeated? Beat Wisconsin and Wake Forest next season but lose to Louisiana or Georgia Southern (heaven forbid) and App still isn't in the NY6. Or you could be Memphis and beat a middle of the road SEC team and lose to Temple and have to only worry about winning your conference to get in. As an aside, common opponents between App and Memphis would seem to suggest there isn't much separation between the two yet the perception gap is massive.

[ericsaid]

I've skimmed through James Madison and NDSU threads about this same topic and we sound almost as crazy as them.

Clemson doesn't join the SEC because the ACC gives them a path to the playoff every year. App can sit tight in the Sunbelt because this year proves the Sunbelt can provide a path to the NY6. We've been here 5 years and a lot of you feel entitled to a cotton bowl just because we beat a decent UNC and a crappy USC. Take the damn stairs.

If any realignment occurs I still favor luring 2 away from CUSA. A swap doesn't work because they're not going to just trade their 2 best eastern teams for 2 of our worst western ones no matter how tidy it looks on a map. Blowing up and starting over implies a decade of instability and growing pains from a league administrative standpoint. Small course corrections get us where we want to be, not massive over-steers.

Both those fan bases have some interesting divides. There's the NDSU fans that realize geography is rough and that if they were to ever rise, the MAC and MWC make the most sense. Then there's the ones that think they deserve either the B1G or Big 12 right away. Which is insane lol. I get that they've absolutely dominated FCS, but a lot of what conferences look for goes beyond winning and NDSU simply doesn't check a lot of those boxes. Which brings us to JMU. Who has a loud chunk of fans that similarly want AAC or bust. Which at least isn't as huge of a leap as FCS to P5 but even then, if the AAC wants to keep pushing for "P6", you don't do that by taking an FCS team.

To be fair to NDSU they have done nothing but win. They had a couple of down years in their first FCS seasons but have largely been on a tear through both D-2 and FCS. North Dakota State and Montana would be interesting adds for the MWC. That would give them four flagship programs that form a decent bloc along the Rocky Mountain chain. Spatial relationships are relative as well considering the density of football programs west of I-35 is significantly less than the East until you get to California.

[APPdiesel]

I've skimmed through James Madison and NDSU threads about this same topic and we sound almost as crazy as them.

Clemson doesn't join the SEC because the ACC gives them a path to the playoff every year. App can sit tight in the Sunbelt because this year proves the Sunbelt can provide a path to the NY6. We've been here 5 years and a lot of you feel entitled to a cotton bowl just because we beat a decent UNC and a crappy USC. Take the damn stairs.

If any realignment occurs I still favor luring 2 away from CUSA. A swap doesn't work because they're not going to just trade their 2 best eastern teams for 2 of our worst western ones no matter how tidy it looks on a map. Blowing up and starting over implies a decade of instability and growing pains from a league administrative standpoint. Small course corrections get us where we want to be, not massive over-steers.

No one feels entitled to a Cotton Bowl. The reality is that App has a resume on par with the top of the AAC right now, yet, here App is getting passed up by USC (who lost to BYU) and is behind Boise State who also lost to BYU. If App had lost to any team with a losing record, even if it were BYU, they wouldn't have climbed back in the rankings. If you are misguided enough to believe that the Sun Belt provides a realistic path to the NY6 year in and year out, you need to take off the Sun faded glasses and read between the lines. App could lose to Wisconsin by one score and beat Wake Forest next year and run through the conference only to be put behind a two loss AAC team because they have gone undefeated in conference and won against a 3-9 P5 team.

The issue inherent is that App's future schedule includes Wisconsin, Clemson, Texas A&M, UNC, and USC again. While a loss to Wisconsin or Clemson while in the AAC wouldn't be a death sentence for NY6, in the Sun Belt it is. You don't have games against teams with the curb appeal to climb high enough to get to the Cotton Bowl, even if App lost a tight game. It just isn't there. There is no path unless you are 13-0. Replicating the success of this season isn't impossible but it will almost certainly be improbable.

The Clemson argument is a bit of a strawman as well. They play for a four team playoff while App plays for one spot that necessitates going undefeated. When was the last time App went undefeated? Beat Wisconsin and Wake Forest next season but lose to Louisiana or Georgia Southern (heaven forbid) and App still isn't in the NY6. Or you could be Memphis and beat a middle of the road SEC team and lose to Temple and have to only worry about winning your conference to get in. As an aside, common opponents between App and Memphis would seem to suggest there isn't much separation between the two yet the perception gap is massive.

You're not entirely wrong. The AAC provides a better path but the Sunbelt does still provide a path. We are in the conversation and had we taken care of GS we'd be in. The playoff is not a meritocracy, it's a brand-power invitational and as much as we all love App, those other teams and their conference have more brand power. The Sunbelt is building that brand power every year but you want the fast cars and fabulous prizes immediately without having to work and build to get there.

[Rick83]

This Washington Post article about the AAC was in today's Greensboro News & Record:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/c ... story.html

[AppStFan1]

We can achieve the same thing from the Sunbelt as they can from the AAC.

Sunbelt is rising and we are leading the pack.

If geography wasn’t a problem, the MWC is my dream destination. The AAC are just a bunch of nobodies that got left behind after the Big East collapsed and the ACC pillaged the remains.

I don't think we can outright. We need a lot of help. There is not one undefeated team in the AAC and we have just one loss but we are still pulling for those teams to lose another game. I would most definitely move if the conditions someone else posted are true in that we had a path to full membership, basketball scheduling agreement, and full football payout. Unless the SBC can add 2-3 teams the caliber of us, ULL, and Georgia Southern there is just not enough and we need a stronger conference.

I have enjoyed the SBC but the $$$ is way better in the AAC and you always follow the money. We won't be like ECU. We have seen what mistakes they made and I believe we would flourish in the AAC. However, I would like to see those west teams like SMU leave.

As someone else said, ideally we want to be in a regional conference. The dream league for us would be App State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Marshall, East Carolina, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Troy, MTSU, Memphis, CCU, etc.

[AppStFan1]

I've skimmed through James Madison and NDSU threads about this same topic and we sound almost as crazy as them.

Clemson doesn't join the SEC because the ACC gives them a path to the playoff every year. App can sit tight in the Sunbelt because this year proves the Sunbelt can provide a path to the NY6. We've been here 5 years and a lot of you feel entitled to a cotton bowl just because we beat a decent UNC and a crappy USC. Take the damn stairs.

If any realignment occurs I still favor luring 2 away from CUSA. A swap doesn't work because they're not going to just trade their 2 best eastern teams for 2 of our worst western ones no matter how tidy it looks on a map. Blowing up and starting over implies a decade of instability and growing pains from a league administrative standpoint. Small course corrections get us where we want to be, not massive over-steers.

No one feels entitled to a Cotton Bowl. The reality is that App has a resume on par with the top of the AAC right now, yet, here App is getting passed up by USC (who lost to BYU) and is behind Boise State who also lost to BYU. If App had lost to any team with a losing record, even if it were BYU, they wouldn't have climbed back in the rankings. If you are misguided enough to believe that the Sun Belt provides a realistic path to the NY6 year in and year out, you need to take off the Sun faded glasses and read between the lines. App could lose to Wisconsin by one score and beat Wake Forest next year and run through the conference only to be put behind a two loss AAC team because they have gone undefeated in conference and won against a 3-9 P5 team.

The issue inherent is that App's future schedule includes Wisconsin, Clemson, Texas A&M, UNC, and USC again. While a loss to Wisconsin or Clemson while in the AAC wouldn't be a death sentence for NY6, in the Sun Belt it is. You don't have games against teams with the curb appeal to climb high enough to get to the Cotton Bowl, even if App lost a tight game. It just isn't there. There is no path unless you are 13-0. Replicating the success of this season isn't impossible but it will almost certainly be improbable.

The Clemson argument is a bit of a strawman as well. They play for a four team playoff while App plays for one spot that necessitates going undefeated. When was the last time App went undefeated? Beat Wisconsin and Wake Forest next season but lose to Louisiana or Georgia Southern (heaven forbid) and App still isn't in the NY6. Or you could be Memphis and beat a middle of the road SEC team and lose to Temple and have to only worry about winning your conference to get in. As an aside, common opponents between App and Memphis would seem to suggest there isn't much separation between the two yet the perception gap is massive.

You're not entirely wrong. The AAC provides a better path but the Sunbelt does still provide a path. We are in the conversation and had we taken care of GS we'd be in. The playoff is not a meritocracy, it's a brand-power invitational and as much as we all love App, those other teams and their conference have more brand power. The Sunbelt is building that brand power every year but you want the fast cars and fabulous prizes immediately without having to work and build to get there.

He is 100% right. Us losing to Georgia Southern has pretty much ended our NY6 hopes while everyone else in the AAC has a loss but 3 teams in the league still have an easier path to the NY6 than we do. SMU, Cincy, and Memphis don't care how we are doing because they know if they win out they control their own destiny and would get the bid. Same can be said for Boise State.

Think of it this way. Say we are 13-0, Cincy is 13-0, and Boise State is 13-0. Do you want to guess where we would stack up? Unless we have multiple wins over ranked teams we would be #3 among that scenario. SBC has a path but it is VERY narrow and pretty much have to be perfect. The SBC is basically equal to the MAC and CUSA if you remove App State and ULL or Georgia Southern from it. That's the simple truth.

I don't mind taking the stairs and needing a few more years to build up but sadly we have the best team we ever had and this group deserves more than playing the #2 CUSA team. I would like to see it happen this year but we still need so much to happen.

[AppStFan1]

I've skimmed through James Madison and NDSU threads about this same topic and we sound almost as crazy as them.

Clemson doesn't join the SEC because the ACC gives them a path to the playoff every year. App can sit tight in the Sunbelt because this year proves the Sunbelt can provide a path to the NY6. We've been here 5 years and a lot of you feel entitled to a cotton bowl just because we beat a decent UNC and a crappy USC. Take the damn stairs.

If any realignment occurs I still favor luring 2 away from CUSA. A swap doesn't work because they're not going to just trade their 2 best eastern teams for 2 of our worst western ones no matter how tidy it looks on a map. Blowing up and starting over implies a decade of instability and growing pains from a league administrative standpoint. Small course corrections get us where we want to be, not massive over-steers.

Both those fan bases have some interesting divides. There's the NDSU fans that realize geography is rough and that if they were to ever rise, the MAC and MWC make the most sense. Then there's the ones that think they deserve either the B1G or Big 12 right away. Which is insane lol. I get that they've absolutely dominated FCS, but a lot of what conferences look for goes beyond winning and NDSU simply doesn't check a lot of those boxes. Which brings us to JMU. Who has a loud chunk of fans that similarly want AAC or bust. Which at least isn't as huge of a leap as FCS to P5 but even then, if the AAC wants to keep pushing for "P6", you don't do that by taking an FCS team.

What you said is why I think the AAC would poach the top team in the CUSA or SBC rather than go for JMU. What the SBC should do to stabilize would be to take JMU and Liberty. JMU should not be on the AAC radar right now. They would be ideal for the SBC if we go.

[ah59396]

I've skimmed through James Madison and NDSU threads about this same topic and we sound almost as crazy as them.

Clemson doesn't join the SEC because the ACC gives them a path to the playoff every year. App can sit tight in the Sunbelt because this year proves the Sunbelt can provide a path to the NY6. We've been here 5 years and a lot of you feel entitled to a cotton bowl just because we beat a decent UNC and a crappy USC. Take the damn stairs.

If any realignment occurs I still favor luring 2 away from CUSA. A swap doesn't work because they're not going to just trade their 2 best eastern teams for 2 of our worst western ones no matter how tidy it looks on a map. Blowing up and starting over implies a decade of instability and growing pains from a league administrative standpoint. Small course corrections get us where we want to be, not massive over-steers.

No one feels entitled to a Cotton Bowl. The reality is that App has a resume on par with the top of the AAC right now, yet, here App is getting passed up by USC (who lost to BYU) and is behind Boise State who also lost to BYU. If App had lost to any team with a losing record, even if it were BYU, they wouldn't have climbed back in the rankings. If you are misguided enough to believe that the Sun Belt provides a realistic path to the NY6 year in and year out, you need to take off the Sun faded glasses and read between the lines. App could lose to Wisconsin by one score and beat Wake Forest next year and run through the conference only to be put behind a two loss AAC team because they have gone undefeated in conference and won against a 3-9 P5 team.

The issue inherent is that App's future schedule includes Wisconsin, Clemson, Texas A&M, UNC, and USC again. While a loss to Wisconsin or Clemson while in the AAC wouldn't be a death sentence for NY6, in the Sun Belt it is. You don't have games against teams with the curb appeal to climb high enough to get to the Cotton Bowl, even if App lost a tight game. It just isn't there. There is no path unless you are 13-0. Replicating the success of this season isn't impossible but it will almost certainly be improbable.

The Clemson argument is a bit of a strawman as well. They play for a four team playoff while App plays for one spot that necessitates going undefeated. When was the last time App went undefeated? Beat Wisconsin and Wake Forest next season but lose to Louisiana or Georgia Southern (heaven forbid) and App still isn't in the NY6. Or you could be Memphis and beat a middle of the road SEC team and lose to Temple and have to only worry about winning your conference to get in. As an aside, common opponents between App and Memphis would seem to suggest there isn't much separation between the two yet the perception gap is massive.

I’ll challenge you on this opinion a little bit. I’ll say I mostly agree with your sentiment but it’s not entirely accurate.

We lost a tight game to Penn State last year. And in week 8 we were 25th in the AP poll with only UCF and USF in front of us.

Now if you’ll recall, the week we lost to Ga Southern, a whole pile of top 25 teams lost and in week 9, unranked Houston from week 8 was suddenly 17th and Utah State was 18th.

Obviously UCF was in the driver seat and for good reason, but had we beaten Ga Southern, we most certainly would have been 17th instead of Houston, and only behind UCF for the Cotton Bowl slot.

[AppStFan1]

I've skimmed through James Madison and NDSU threads about this same topic and we sound almost as crazy as them.

Clemson doesn't join the SEC because the ACC gives them a path to the playoff every year. App can sit tight in the Sunbelt because this year proves the Sunbelt can provide a path to the NY6. We've been here 5 years and a lot of you feel entitled to a cotton bowl just because we beat a decent UNC and a crappy USC. Take the damn stairs.

If any realignment occurs I still favor luring 2 away from CUSA. A swap doesn't work because they're not going to just trade their 2 best eastern teams for 2 of our worst western ones no matter how tidy it looks on a map. Blowing up and starting over implies a decade of instability and growing pains from a league administrative standpoint. Small course corrections get us where we want to be, not massive over-steers.

No one feels entitled to a Cotton Bowl. The reality is that App has a resume on par with the top of the AAC right now, yet, here App is getting passed up by USC (who lost to BYU) and is behind Boise State who also lost to BYU. If App had lost to any team with a losing record, even if it were BYU, they wouldn't have climbed back in the rankings. If you are misguided enough to believe that the Sun Belt provides a realistic path to the NY6 year in and year out, you need to take off the Sun faded glasses and read between the lines. App could lose to Wisconsin by one score and beat Wake Forest next year and run through the conference only to be put behind a two loss AAC team because they have gone undefeated in conference and won against a 3-9 P5 team.

The issue inherent is that App's future schedule includes Wisconsin, Clemson, Texas A&M, UNC, and USC again. While a loss to Wisconsin or Clemson while in the AAC wouldn't be a death sentence for NY6, in the Sun Belt it is. You don't have games against teams with the curb appeal to climb high enough to get to the Cotton Bowl, even if App lost a tight game. It just isn't there. There is no path unless you are 13-0. Replicating the success of this season isn't impossible but it will almost certainly be improbable.

The Clemson argument is a bit of a strawman as well. They play for a four team playoff while App plays for one spot that necessitates going undefeated. When was the last time App went undefeated? Beat Wisconsin and Wake Forest next season but lose to Louisiana or Georgia Southern (heaven forbid) and App still isn't in the NY6. Or you could be Memphis and beat a middle of the road SEC team and lose to Temple and have to only worry about winning your conference to get in. As an aside, common opponents between App and Memphis would seem to suggest there isn't much separation between the two yet the perception gap is massive.

I’ll challenge you on this opinion a little bit. I’ll say I mostly agree with your sentiment but it’s not entirely accurate.

We lost a tight game to Penn State last year. And in week 8 we were 25th in the AP poll with only UCF and USF in front of us.

Now if you’ll recall, the week we lost to Ga Southern, a whole pile of top 25 teams lost and in week 9, unranked Houston from week 8 was suddenly 17th and Utah State was 18th.

Obviously UCF was in the driver seat and for good reason, but had we beaten Ga Southern, we most certainly would have been 17th instead of Houston, and only behind UCF for the Cotton Bowl slot.

Here is that week's polls and the results: https://www.espn.com/college-football/r ... asontype/2

Houston beat USF so they would have leaped us. Stanford barely lost to WSU so they probably would have gone below us but not fallen out with all of those losses. Syracuse was going to pass us for sure with their win over a ranked team. I bet Iowa does not drop below us. They only fell one spot. Miss St, Houston, Utah State, and Fresno State would have jumped us.

I get what you are thinking there but I'm pretty sure voters were going to move several of those P5 teams ahead of us with their good wins. We would have been 20-21 though for sure. Would have been fun to see. Too bad we crapped the bed and dropped like a rock. We lost every vote and took 4 weeks just to get any back. We got one vote and then added 18 more after the ULL win and moved up a bunch with the dominant win over MTSU.

Interesting stats: 6 G5 teams finished ranked and 4 more got votes, including us. We now have 5 ranked and just 2 really on the cusp of moving in with a good win and 2-3 losses ahead of them.

Here are two things we know for sure. Voters will forgive a good G5 team with a close loss to a rival but if you get blown out or lose to someone that has a losing record you will drop big time and lose all votes unless you have some good wins already.

[APPdiesel]

I hate to tell you guys but thr team we put out onto the field today is not a 1-loss team in the AAC. We've looked downright inept at times this season. You all act like going unbeaten in conference is easy and we'd do it year in and year out. I'm not saying I wouldnt love to be in the AAC, because I absolutely would, but I'm enjoying dominating the conference we're in right now, and I'm not saying App State student athletes and facilities wouldn't benefit from AAC resources, because they would, but I'm not so much a prisoner of the moment as some of you.

[ericsaid]

I hate to tell you guys but thr team we put out onto the field today is not a 1-loss team in the AAC. We've looked downright inept at times this season. You all act like going unbeaten in conference is easy and we'd do it year in and year out. I'm not saying I wouldnt love to be in the AAC, because I absolutely would, but I'm enjoying dominating the conference we're in right now, and I'm not saying App State student athletes and facilities wouldn't benefit from AAC resources, because they would, but I'm not so much a prisoner of the moment as some of you.

No one is suggesting App would go undefeated in the AAC. Taking today's game, once again in a downpour and cold, and extrapolating it to what it would mean in the AAC is a red herring. I think what most people are getting at is that at the current trajectory, including with recruiting, facilities, and results what would an additional $7 million per year and having a guarantee of quite a few nationally televised Saturday games do? App would get more exposure within their recruiting footprint, more exposure within their regional familiarity with people, and it should boost the brand in locations that would help the University as a whole.

This game is also a classic trap scenario whereby App played the 2nd place East team last week and has a developing rivalry game the following week. Now you have Troy before facing a suddenly Top 25 looking Louisiana (go look at the box score and watch the Troy - Louisiana game if you can. Tell me Louisiana didn't look like a Top 25 team).

It is a bad spot against a bad opponent in driving, cold rain. Did App have a let down early and surrender a seemingly unforgivable touchdown pass to close the half? Yes (where were the safeties with 10 seconds left and Texas State looking at the clock). Take out that one play and App gave up 99 passing yards and Texas State had less than 200 I believe.

Aside from one bug play, and the score differential being down to one, App played well. It looks bad to us because we obviously expected the score to approach the Vegas line early but in the elements that were out today, it's almost always a sure bet to take the road dog.

As for being caught up in the moment, that's all we are guaranteed. As Drink says, "seize the opportunity of a lifetime within the lifetime of the opportunity".

[Stonewall]

The way I understand it,at least as of now ,we will leave the Sunbelt for a yet to be formed regional conference, or be part of an complete overhaul and recombination of the ‘Belt and another league. Again to a more compact geographical arrangement. Until then we are happy in the Sunbelt.(There is no timetable but discussions have and hopefully will , take place.) Had we gone undefeated this season we would most likely be playing in the Cotton Bowl. We are currently playing the “politics” hard ,to get there this year. The odds are long .A competitive loss to a top ten or fifteen Wisconsin team , if they are so ranked , wont knock us out next year but we would have to win the rest barring really unusual circumstances.

[APPdiesel]

Eric, we're arguing around in circles and both making completely valid points so lets call it here. Enjoying our unprecedented success and can't wait to see where this program goes.

[BallantyneApp]

I hate to tell you guys but thr team we put out onto the field today is not a 1-loss team in the AAC. We've looked downright inept at times this season. You all act like going unbeaten in conference is easy and we'd do it year in and year out. I'm not saying I wouldnt love to be in the AAC, because I absolutely would, but I'm enjoying dominating the conference we're in right now, and I'm not saying App State student athletes and facilities wouldn't benefit from AAC resources, because they would, but I'm not so much a prisoner of the moment as some of you.

I dunno. After watching Cincinnati and temple yesterday, I think we might be a 1 loss AAC team. Memphis would be favored for sure, and not sure we match up with Navy. But otherwise I think they just have better perception and marketing. Not actually better teams.