Today's Guide to FCS Football

[Cincy App]

Should be an interesting day of FCS football today! Below is my updated playoff projection by conference:

3 Teams: Big Sky, CAA, Missouri Valley, SoCon
2 Teams: Southland, Ohio Valley
1 Team: Big South, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot

The projection above reflects a change from my projected playoff bracket submitted in a thread last weekend. Basically, I added a 2nd OVC team at the expense of a 4th CAA team. Most conference power polls consider the OVC to be at least equivalent to the CAA this year. Thus, upon reflection, I don’t think the CAA will get a 4th team before the OVC gets a 2nd team.

Regarding playoff teams, I believe that the following 13 teams are locks:
Montana St, E. Washington, Old Dominion, New Hampshire, N. Dakota St, Illinois St, ASU, Ga Southern, C. Arkansas (auto bid), Sam Houston St, E. Illinois (auto bid), Bethune Cookman (auto bid), Colgate (auto bid)

The following 3 teams will be in the field if they win today:
- Winner of N. Arizona-Cal Poly game (loser will be out unless several bubble teams lose)
- Wagner (would earn NEC auto ! bid)
- Coastal Carolina (earns Big South auto bid with win over CCU and a Liberty win over VMI)

Bubble thoughts (last 4 teams):
The MVC should receive 3 bids although 4 bids are possible since they are considered the strongest conference this season. If only 3 bids, I expect the last bid to go to South Dakota St although Indiana St will receive serious consideration if it beats Youngstown St today. Indiana St would be 8-3 with a win over NDSU.

Since I project the OVC to receive a 2nd bid, I believe Tennessee St will be in the field if they beat UT-Martin. If not, I think the bid will go to EKU who has finished season at 8-3. The biggest risk to a second team for the OVC may be a 4th bid to the MVC.

The SoCon SHOULD get a 3rd bid. Wofford is expected to earn this bid even with a likely loss to South Carolina today but their nonconference scheduling of Gardner Webb and D-2 Lincoln PA put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Samford could edge into this last spot by beating Kentucky tonight in a winnable game but their 3 conference losses probably have them out of the field regardless.

The CAA is probably the hardest conference to project. As noted above, I believe ODU and UNH are in regardless of today’s results. Bubble teams represent JMU, Richmond, and Villanova. If all 3 of these teams win today, I like Richmond’s chances best as they beat both JMU and Nova. All 3 teams would be 8-3. Towson would receive bubble consideration as well at 7-4 with 2 FBS losses (one to LSU by a mere 16 points). The CAA will create a tough decision for the Playoff Selection Committee (how many CAA teams in the field and who gets last bid or two). The CAA has often had more than 3 teams in the playoff field but the conference did much poorer overall in non-conference action this year and will not likely carry the selection day clout it has in recent years.

Other bubble teams with very realistic chances are Stony Brook and Lehigh.

The following games with playoff implications will be televised on Directv today:
- Towson at New Hampshire (12 Noon)
- Lehigh at Lafayette (1 PM)
- Bethune Cookman vs Florida A&M (2:30 PM)
- Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina (3:30 PM)
- Montana St at Montana (3:35 PM)
- Cal Poly at N. Arizona (6:05 PM)
- Old Dominion at JMU (7 PM)
- Samford at Kentucky (7:30 PM)

Indiana State at Youngstown St will also be on ESPN3 at 2 PM.

Other games of interest include Citadel at Furman (determines SoCon autobid), ND State at Illinois St, Richmond at W&M, TN State at UT-Martin, Villanova at Delaware, and E. Illinois at C. Arkansas.

I think ASU is safely in the field and will earn a first round bye. As of this morning, I don’t expect a seed but let’s see how the day sorts out. Keep in mind that only the top 4 seeds really matter to ASU. The 5th seed is meaningless to us since we will play a second round game at home regardless due to attendance. I expect that we will play at home on December 1st likely against Richmond or UNH depending on today’s results. I expect to get bracketed so that we would match up against the 2nd or 3rd seed if we win our opening game. This allows ASU to have the best chance to play future rounds at home if we keep winning and seeds are upset which interests the NCAA for monetary reasons.

[moehler]

if we can avoid a bracket with GS/Wofford, I think we have a good chance to win a few games. I saw a stat, dont remember where, that if you take out the Cit, Wofford, GS, games, our defensive stats were actually pretty good against everyone else. With the time off, its really going to help the team.

[ASUPATCH]

UNH down early to Towson 14-6.

[BUTCH1991]

UNH down early to Towson 14-6.

Quickly tied at 14-14

[WVAPPeer]

Thanks for posting Cincy - very helpful ---

[ASU2012]

Updates that are important to us:

Towson 57 @New Hampshire 35 --> 4th Quarter
North Dakota State 17 @Illinois State 20 --> 3rd quarter
Georgia Southern 7 @Georgia 17 --> Halftime
Wofford 7 @South Carolina 7 --> 3rd Quarter
Citadel 21 @Furman 17 --> 3rd Quarter

[ASUPATCH]

We will jump UNH but Wofford may jump us with how tough they are plaing usc.

[TheGreatBolo]

#1 N Dak St behind in 3rd by 3.

[87ASUgrad]

Go Furman! (Ever throw up a little in your mouth?) Furman Sucks!!!, but Go Furman!

[TheGreatBolo]

Wofford's 9 minute drive ends with fumble lost. :50 in 3rd still 7-7.

[Yosef84]

if we can avoid a bracket with GS/Wofford, I think we have a good chance to win a few games. I saw a stat, dont remember where, that if you take out the Cit, Wofford, GS, games, our defensive stats were actually pretty good against everyone else. With the time off, its really going to help the team.

I actually wouldn't mind seeing Wofford again. We are capable of pulling away from Wofford if we play our A game. GSU would be a dangerous rematch though.

[Cincy App]

In CAA land, UNH was in great shape for the playoff field going into today. However, you don't lose 64-35 to a 6-4 team. They are now clearly on the bubble at best. Keep in mind that ODU is eligible for the playoffs but is not eligible for the CAA autobid. I believe that Villanova has the best shot at the CAA autobid right now we'll see what happens the rest of the day.

[hapapp]

Looks like the Citadel will beat Furman.

[YesAppCan]

Portland State up 13-0 over #5 Eastern Washington w/ 1:34 left in 1st qtr.

[appstcyclist]

If Portland state and montana win today we will have a good chance at a seed.

[biggie]

Montana down 10-7

Port St up 13-7

[biggie]

Port St up 26-14 in 3rd.

Mont St up 13-7.

[hapapp]

EWU up 27-26 on PSU.

[AppinATL]

Does El Cid get in with 7 wins (including wins against GSU and APP)? I hope they do.

[BUTCH1991]

Montana St wins, Eastern Washington appears to be on the way victory. Do I pull for JMU or ODU?