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Updated Bowl Projections

Goapps15
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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by Goapps15 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:56 pm

I really have no desire for Montgomery and as long as ULL beats stink, we will take a plunge.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by JMappfan5 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:18 pm

Just ordered my tickets to all 5 locations. Keeping my fingers crossed for Orlando!!!

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by MAD Doctor » Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:57 pm

I know these are bogus, but what is the rationale behind Ga. State going to New Orleans?

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by AppGrad78 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 pm

Am I being paranoid?

With two weeks left in the regular season, four Sun Belt teams have six or more wins. Three more teams could get to six wins. With as many as seven bowl-eligible teams vying for the Sun Belt’s five bowl spots, is there a scenario in which App State stays home?

Also, even if things break right for App, isn’t there a real possibility that Tucson is our destination?

If we finish 8-4, I’m guessing we’ll either go to Orlando or Montgomery. But a 6-6 finish (or possibly 7-5), our bowl fate seems far from certain.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by Saint3333 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:37 pm

You’re being paranoid.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by Goapps15 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:37 pm

AppGrad78 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 pm
Am I being paranoid?

With two weeks left in the regular season, four Sun Belt teams have six or more wins. Three more teams could get to six wins. With as many as seven bowl-eligible teams vying for the Sun Belt’s five bowl spots, is there a scenario in which App State stays home?

Also, even if things break right for App, isn’t there a real possibility that Tucson is our destination?

If we finish 8-4, I’m guessing we’ll either go to Orlando or Montgomery. But a 6-6 finish (or possibly 7-5), our bowl fate seems far from certain.
78 there will not be enough eligible teams overall to keep us home. They must take every 6-6 or better team before an under .500 opponent.

However Tucson is a strong possibility if ULL wins one more.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by bh2oson » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:47 pm

AppGrad78 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 pm
Am I being paranoid?
Yes. :D I think it could get crazy but a lot of things would have to fall in place for 6-6 teams to stay home. If App takes care of business the next 2 weeks we are guaranteed a bowl. If App loses the next 2, well... we wont think about that. I think it will be Mobile or Cure. Just my guess.
bh2oson aka Bill Waterson

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by hapapp » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:40 pm

Currently there are 70 bowl eligible teams and 18 with 5 wins. It's possible there could more eligible teams than bowls.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by EastHallApp » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:51 pm

Goapps15 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:37 pm
AppGrad78 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 pm
Am I being paranoid?

With two weeks left in the regular season, four Sun Belt teams have six or more wins. Three more teams could get to six wins. With as many as seven bowl-eligible teams vying for the Sun Belt’s five bowl spots, is there a scenario in which App State stays home?

Also, even if things break right for App, isn’t there a real possibility that Tucson is our destination?

If we finish 8-4, I’m guessing we’ll either go to Orlando or Montgomery. But a 6-6 finish (or possibly 7-5), our bowl fate seems far from certain.
78 there will not be enough eligible teams overall to keep us home. They must take every 6-6 or better team before an under .500 opponent.

However Tucson is a strong possibility if ULL wins one more.
I would say it's an outside possibility in that case. It becomes a stronger possibility if, say, we lose our last two.

Basically I think what you have to envision is a scenario in which Orlando chooses GSU over us. Based on fan support, I think that's unlikely if both teams are even. But if they're 8-3 and we're 6-6? We might be headed to Arizona (or elsewhere) then, and who could really complain about it?

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:51 pm

Man I hope we don’t drop the last 2, go .500, limp to the finish line and pray that we get into some crappy bowl against a 5-7 squad. Win the last 2, finish strong, get some guys back and kick some good teams ass in a good matchup

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by Cincy App » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:54 pm

AppGrad78 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 pm
Am I being paranoid?

With two weeks left in the regular season, four Sun Belt teams have six or more wins. Three more teams could get to six wins. With as many as seven bowl-eligible teams vying for the Sun Belt’s five bowl spots, is there a scenario in which App State stays home?

Also, even if things break right for App, isn’t there a real possibility that Tucson is our destination?

If we finish 8-4, I’m guessing we’ll either go to Orlando or Montgomery. But a 6-6 finish (or possibly 7-5), our bowl fate seems far from certain.
The most the Sun Belt can realistically hope for is 6 bowl teams. ULM would have to beat Florida St and Arkansas St to become bowl eligible. I think we have near zero risk for staying home - especially if our ticket sale numbers are better than other conference teams.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by hotrod2001 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:03 pm

MAD Doctor wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:57 pm
I know these are bogus, but what is the rationale behind Ga. State going to New Orleans?
Atlanta's closer to NO than anything in NC?

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by AppinVA » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:20 pm

hotrod2001 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:03 pm
MAD Doctor wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:57 pm
I know these are bogus, but what is the rationale behind Ga. State going to New Orleans?
Atlanta's closer to NO than anything in NC?
Maybe they will let them take their dogs.
"Some people call me hillbilly. Some people call me mountain man. You can call me Appalachian. Appalachian's what I am."-- Del McCoury Band

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by Goapps15 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:31 pm

EastHallApp wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:51 pm
Goapps15 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:37 pm
AppGrad78 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 pm
Am I being paranoid?

With two weeks left in the regular season, four Sun Belt teams have six or more wins. Three more teams could get to six wins. With as many as seven bowl-eligible teams vying for the Sun Belt’s five bowl spots, is there a scenario in which App State stays home?

Also, even if things break right for App, isn’t there a real possibility that Tucson is our destination?

If we finish 8-4, I’m guessing we’ll either go to Orlando or Montgomery. But a 6-6 finish (or possibly 7-5), our bowl fate seems far from certain.
78 there will not be enough eligible teams overall to keep us home. They must take every 6-6 or better team before an under .500 opponent.

However Tucson is a strong possibility if ULL wins one more.
I would say it's an outside possibility in that case. It becomes a stronger possibility if, say, we lose our last two.

Basically I think what you have to envision is a scenario in which Orlando chooses GSU over us. Based on fan support, I think that's unlikely if both teams are even. But if they're 8-3 and we're 6-6? We might be headed to Arizona (or elsewhere) then, and who could really complain about it?
I see ull in that case going to NO. StAte going to Mobile. Troy going to Montgomery. Orlando is a wild card. Would it make sense to take us if we are even or better? Yes but as we've seen there is no logic to the process.

I hope the Belt adopts the same policy next year as the Cusa. Win the conference and you can choose your bowl.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by APPARJ » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:58 pm

Goapps15 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:31 pm
EastHallApp wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:51 pm
Goapps15 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:37 pm
AppGrad78 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 pm
Am I being paranoid?

With two weeks left in the regular season, four Sun Belt teams have six or more wins. Three more teams could get to six wins. With as many as seven bowl-eligible teams vying for the Sun Belt’s five bowl spots, is there a scenario in which App State stays home?

Also, even if things break right for App, isn’t there a real possibility that Tucson is our destination?

If we finish 8-4, I’m guessing we’ll either go to Orlando or Montgomery. But a 6-6 finish (or possibly 7-5), our bowl fate seems far from certain.
78 there will not be enough eligible teams overall to keep us home. They must take every 6-6 or better team before an under .500 opponent.

However Tucson is a strong possibility if ULL wins one more.
I would say it's an outside possibility in that case. It becomes a stronger possibility if, say, we lose our last two.

Basically I think what you have to envision is a scenario in which Orlando chooses GSU over us. Based on fan support, I think that's unlikely if both teams are even. But if they're 8-3 and we're 6-6? We might be headed to Arizona (or elsewhere) then, and who could really complain about it?
I see ull in that case going to NO. StAte going to Mobile. Troy going to Montgomery. Orlando is a wild card. Would it make sense to take us if we are even or better? Yes but as we've seen there is no logic to the process.

I hope the Belt adopts the same policy next year as the Cusa. Win the conference and you can choose your bowl.
It's all about ticket sales. Period. End of story. Ark St is 7+ hrs from Mobile (Christmas Eve Eve Bowl) and 5hrs from Montgomery (on a Saturday). Troy is roughly 2.5 hrs from Mobile and they probably have a lot of fans living in that area. Also, Troy played in the Mobile bowl last year and that game had 30K in attendance.

So if ULL gets to six wins, I think the first two bowl slots are really predictable: ULL to New Orleans and Troy to Mobile.

That brings us to the Camellia Bowl. Jonesboro and Memphis (probably Ark St's version of CLT for us) are 6 & 5 hours away from Montgomery respectively. Arkansas State's fan base is just as close (maybe closer) as we are interestingly enough.

The Camellia Bowl absolutely knows App State going back to Montgomery a third consecutive year will sell even fewer tickets (which I personally find ridiculous). I don't know how Arkansas State travels but their ticket sales would have to be comparable to what App State would bring in a third consecutive year. Again, Arkansas State to Montgomery over App State in the third slot might make sense from a ticket selling perspective.

Which leaves the Cure Bowl. Let's be serious for a moment... Who in the world believes Georgia State would come close to selling as many tickets to a new bowl location as App State? No one, because we'd blow them out of the water. In that case, App State to Orlando is a no-brainer.

Of course, everything I wrote goes out the window if ULL doesn't get to six wins.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by EastHallApp » Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:20 pm

I think a lot of what you write makes sense ARJ. What we don’t know is how the respective fan enthusiasm of GSU and App would affect ticket sales if they’re 8-3 and conference champs (in a year little was expected) while we’re 6-6 and losing 4 of the last 5 when we were expected to win double-digit games again.

Hopefully we don’t find out, of course.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by hapapp » Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:06 am

EastHallApp wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:20 pm
I think a lot of what you write makes sense ARJ. What we don’t know is how the respective fan enthusiasm of GSU and App would affect ticket sales if they’re 8-3 and conference champs (in a year little was expected) while we’re 6-6 and losing 4 of the last 5 when we were expected to win double-digit games again.

Hopefully we don’t find out, of course.
I do believe the last two weeks of the season have a lot to say about the final destinations of the team's involved. A 6-6 App State team is not likely to generate the same kind of interest the previous two seasons have regardless of location.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by Goapps15 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:16 am

APPARJ wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:58 pm
Goapps15 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:31 pm
EastHallApp wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:51 pm
Goapps15 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:37 pm
AppGrad78 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 pm
Am I being paranoid?

With two weeks left in the regular season, four Sun Belt teams have six or more wins. Three more teams could get to six wins. With as many as seven bowl-eligible teams vying for the Sun Belt’s five bowl spots, is there a scenario in which App State stays home?

Also, even if things break right for App, isn’t there a real possibility that Tucson is our destination?

If we finish 8-4, I’m guessing we’ll either go to Orlando or Montgomery. But a 6-6 finish (or possibly 7-5), our bowl fate seems far from certain.
78 there will not be enough eligible teams overall to keep us home. They must take every 6-6 or better team before an under .500 opponent.

However Tucson is a strong possibility if ULL wins one more.
I would say it's an outside possibility in that case. It becomes a stronger possibility if, say, we lose our last two.

Basically I think what you have to envision is a scenario in which Orlando chooses GSU over us. Based on fan support, I think that's unlikely if both teams are even. But if they're 8-3 and we're 6-6? We might be headed to Arizona (or elsewhere) then, and who could really complain about it?
I see ull in that case going to NO. StAte going to Mobile. Troy going to Montgomery. Orlando is a wild card. Would it make sense to take us if we are even or better? Yes but as we've seen there is no logic to the process.

I hope the Belt adopts the same policy next year as the Cusa. Win the conference and you can choose your bowl.
It's all about ticket sales. Period. End of story. Ark St is 7+ hrs from Mobile (Christmas Eve Eve Bowl) and 5hrs from Montgomery (on a Saturday). Troy is roughly 2.5 hrs from Mobile and they probably have a lot of fans living in that area. Also, Troy played in the Mobile bowl last year and that game had 30K in attendance.

So if ULL gets to six wins, I think the first two bowl slots are really predictable: ULL to New Orleans and Troy to Mobile.

That brings us to the Camellia Bowl. Jonesboro and Memphis (probably Ark St's version of CLT for us) are 6 & 5 hours away from Montgomery respectively. Arkansas State's fan base is just as close (maybe closer) as we are interestingly enough.

The Camellia Bowl absolutely knows App State going back to Montgomery a third consecutive year will sell even fewer tickets (which I personally find ridiculous). I don't know how Arkansas State travels but their ticket sales would have to be comparable to what App State would bring in a third consecutive year. Again, Arkansas State to Montgomery over App State in the third slot might make sense from a ticket selling perspective.

Which leaves the Cure Bowl. Let's be serious for a moment... Who in the world believes Georgia State would come close to selling as many tickets to a new bowl location as App State? No one, because we'd blow them out of the water. In that case, App State to Orlando is a no-brainer.

Of course, everything I wrote goes out the window if ULL doesn't get to six wins.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Exactly it's all a big mess. We just don't have a bowl like a ULL or Troy that would likely automatically choose us if we got to 6. I agree Montgomery would be foolish to take us for a 3rd straight time if they deem another team equally as worthy.

I still hope in the future that the conference champ gets to chose their selection.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by AppSt94 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:28 am

I imagine that any bowl reps in Hot-lanta this weekend will see first hand how we travel and will put to rest any argument over whether or not we get snubbed.
Last edited by AppSt94 on Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Updated Bowl Projections

Unread post by Rekdiver » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:20 am

If we go 6-6 we should decline a bowl game................

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