Final Football Prediction winners...

bigCasu
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Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by bigCasu » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:30 am

Sorry I have been incredibly late getting to this, but nonetheless here we are. After the Louisiana game was tabulated, it was clear who the winner would be. LongRifle28 had built up enough of a lead going into the bowl game, and his likelihood of being caught was very slim. Congrats on the season long victory. That's our third different winner in as many years.

As for the Louisiana game, Appaholic01 was the winner with 160.5 points that resulted from a prediction of 41-13. We had 59 predictions for that game.

For Toledo, a second straight lopsided score led to a bunch of misses by many people, and kept the standings rather static. mountaineerman won the bowl game with a 34-21 prediction. Both Appaholic01 and mountaineerman grabbed their first wins of the season.

On the season, we had 117 posters make a prediction. Somewhere between 65-70 posters made the majority of the prediction and about 25 or so who clocked in perfect attendance on the season, making a prediction for every game.

Over the course of the three seasons we have been tracking, four posters have made the top ten in the final standings each year. BUTCH1991 has logged a 1st, 4th & 4th place finish. S.Lewis15 has finished 6th, 2nd & 2nd. MAD Doctor's results include a 9th, 3rd & 6th place finishes. Yours truly has finished 3rd, 8th & 3rd. Of those that have finished in the top ten twice, they include: biggie, hapapp, JMappfan5, and moonshine.

Below are the final 2017 standings.

1616 LongRifle28(1)
1466 S.Lewis15
1454 Big C (1)
1451 BUTCH1991(2)
1439.5 bh2oson
1389.5 MAD Doctor
1349.5 moonshine
1348 EastHallApp(3)
1341.5 Rick83
1336 hapapp(1)
1314 AppJac
1307 MtnDevil95
1295.5 QueenCityApp
1282 appbud (1)
1262.5 biggie
1231 bigdaddyg
1228 AppSt94
1218 MDaniels84
1210.5 Appaholic01(1)
1209.5 Jmappfan5
1206.5 asucrutch23
1193 appfanz
1192 AppOrange
1177 appskiah(1)
1160.5 huskie3
1149.5 Gonzo
1136.5 ASU84
1134.5 bcoach
1124 appchicago
1118 Appftw
1112 mountaineerman (1)
1098 ASU3432Mi
1095 T Dog
1084 aussie86
1078 HendoYosef
1075 AppStateMtneer(1)
1070.5 appstate77
1054.5 Appalachman
1001 appaneer1984
991.5 CornCobPipes
990 Wataugaman
953 kickass143
946.5 Deano
941 MarxistMountaineer
903 asucrazy
891 Alan
886 ASUGrad2014
876 AppState88
843.5 NO.2
833.5 SpeedKingATL
824.5 JonW
786 AppScott89 (1)
700 ArmantiWaterSafety
698 AppState89
683 hotrod2001
670 johnoralex
612 TheMackAttack
593.5 NoLongerLurking
579.5 ASUGoose
579.5 GoBoone(1)
576 asu1978
559 Budman2154
463 YesAppCan
425.5 diehardapp18
405.5 ashugh
391 CaliApp
389 /\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09
383 CVAPP
364.5 ukappfan
356.5 ncman071
353.5 muletrain15
342 Johnny Burrito
340 B30020
296.5 goapps
292 HighPointApp
251 NattyBumppo'sRevenge
248.5 Cincy App
230.5 Rekdiver
225 Appstate88
224.5 CheckYosef94
212.5 ASUPATCH(1)
202.5 87ASUGrad
193 ASU-FTW
192.5 appvette
187 Snaggy
183.5 AppAlum12
162.5 Yosef
150.5 APP93
144 DaphneUrquhart
141.5 mtnjax
133.5 HBTApps
133 Gaston App 09
131.5 ASU2012
121 AppNation85
112 appfan83
110 HkyMtnr
103 JTApps
94.5 Appdiesel
91 mike87
90 yosefederation
84.5 ASU_MBA
84.5 appstate2008
84 MACAPP86
82 AppfaninCAALand
81 Black Saturday
80 Vnova
70.5 tjpappy
67 Yosefus
60 Saint3333
56.5 ah59396
56.5 RocketFanatic
35.5 NewApp
35.5 mfrench
32.5 The Rock
25 appbio91
22.5 roachgone
19.5 MtnMan09



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MAD Doctor
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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by MAD Doctor » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:46 am

Thanks for all your time and work on this. We appreciate it.



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by MDaniels84 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:44 pm

Thanks Big C! Can't wait until time to predict the Penn State game!



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by JMappfan5 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:59 pm

Thanks BigC...lots of fun!!!



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by appfanz » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:01 pm

I’ll try to do better next year!



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by WataugaMan » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:51 pm

Thanks BigC, I always look forward to the weekly prediction thread.



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by huskie3 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:09 pm

Yeah top 25! Thanks Big C for keeping tabs.


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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by S.Lewis15 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:05 pm

Thanks Big C! Bridesmaid yet again for me. Maybe I'll finally be able to finish it out on top next season.



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by bcoach » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:15 pm

Thanks , It has been a lot of fun



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:34 pm

Can you divulge the formula you use to assign points to the predictions? I am curious what value is placed on actual points vs actual point delta vs predicted scores.


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AppSt94
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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by AppSt94 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:33 am

Thanks for doing this Big C. I look forward to it weekly.



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by bigCasu » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:41 am

McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:34 pm
Can you divulge the formula you use to assign points to the predictions? I am curious what value is placed on actual points vs actual point delta vs predicted scores.
It's done similar to the way a Top 25 poll would be accumulated. A first place vote renders 25 points, 2nd place would be 24 points and so on.

Example. We had 53 predictions for Toledo this year. The person who guessed closest to 34 points for App would receive 53 points. We had 6 guess App would score 34 points. Those six people were awarded 50.5 points each , because 53+52+51+50+49+48 = 303. 303/6 = 50.5

Another example: Two posters were awarded 52.5 points for the point spread or differential of the two scores. They both predicted a 28 margin. That was the closest guesses to the 34 point margin. (53+52)/2=52.5

One of those posters was a Toledo fan who picked the Rockets, and the other an App fan, who picked the Mountaineers. They scored the same points regardless of picking the winner.



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by AppSt94 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:57 am

So it is a combination of winning team’s score and margin of victory. Brilliant!



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by appchicago » Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:55 am

Thanks for doing this, Big C. I'd imagine a great deal of time and effort goes into this on your part, but it's a really fun feature of each week and probably helps us all dig a little deeper into each matchup in the week leading up to the game.

One of these years I'll manage perfect attendance. If I can't be Babe Ruth, I at least want to be Cal Ripken, Jr.



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:29 am

And the number of points earned each game is based on the number of entires, so not every game carries the same weight?

In the Toledo game one could have received 106 points if they were the only one that predicted 34 points for the winning team and also a 34 point spread?

Do you use a speadsheet to do all of this or just add it up after each game?

Either way thanks for your work on this and explaining how it works. I might just start playing along next year.


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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by Longrifle28 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:32 am

Thanks Big C. I always enjoy your write up and prediction thread.

It was pretty consistent this year except for the two games (UMass and ULM) where the injury bug screwed us up. We really came into our own after the ULM loss. I would love to have those two games back, plus the Wake game with the kicker we ended the season with. Anyway, thanks for doing this!


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bigCasu
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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by bigCasu » Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:55 am

McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:29 am
And the number of points earned each game is based on the number of entires, so not every game carries the same weight?

In the Toledo game one could have received 106 points if they were the only one that predicted 34 points for the winning team and also a 34 point spread?

Do you use a speadsheet to do all of this or just add it up after each game?

Either way thanks for your work on this and explaining how it works. I might just start playing along next year.
Correct, its based on participation. Thus the importance in predicting every game. The lowest scoring winner was for the Idaho game, 138.5 points, which had 52 predictions made. The highest was 212.5 and 211 for UGA and Wake respectively, which had 70+ predictions each.



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by Rick83 » Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:49 am

No shout out for Rick83 with a first-time top 10 finish?!? Sad! :lol:



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by biggie » Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:07 am

I need to go work out my predicting muscles, bad year.



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Re: Final Football Prediction winners...

Unread post by CVAPP » Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:34 pm

I suffered a season ending predicting injury sometime shortly before or after the UMass game. It was too late to redshirt. That's my excuse and I am sticking to it.



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