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Grading Football Recruiting from past years

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Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by AtlAppMan » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:27 pm

Does anyone know if there is an existing process/system in place that grades schools' past recruiting classes based on actual performance over their 4-5 years when the students were at the school and performing on/off the field?

We always hear all the hoopla about an incoming class but that is all based rankings from analyst projecting what their potential is. I would like to see a ranking of schools/coaches recruiting based on results of the kids once they arrive at the school and play ball (or not, leave, never see playing field, etc.). At the team level, we can probably say with certainty that Satt and team are generally over performing based on the average recruiting class vs other schools. I am speaking on a player by player basis in this situation vs overall team performance (which is extremely important itself).

For App we all talk about our student athletes not getting the star ranking they deserve compared with other schools. This would either prove or disprove that our coaches are over/under performing vs the recruiting experts.

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by mtnjax » Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:20 am

Nope and likely won't happen. It would then expose the recruiting services/rankings for the farce that they often can be

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by AppSt94 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:28 am

I think that would be an interesting study but man that would be very difficult to plug in objective variables.

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by AppFan11 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:44 am

Yup, grading the graders... there probably is a market for that info. As Moose and others have said for years, the G5 level athlete does not get the resources and attention that the 4 and 5 Star athletes receive. In Athlon’s book they show top 300 from 247..... one went to Cindy a G5. Essentially all 5 and 4 Star kids. They miss a ton on on the 2/3 Star kids.

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by AppfaninCAALand » Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:04 am

I believe the ratings system the OP is looking for is called the final standings.

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:16 pm

AppfaninCAALand wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:04 am
I believe the ratings system the OP is looking for is called the final standings.
A 2-D graph with W-L versus avg star rating could work. Of course that is assuming the star ratings are worth a darn to begin with. In a graph like this a steep slope would make coaches look better.
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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by asu66 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:15 pm

A guy/gal interested in a Ph.D/Ed.D could create a very challenging dissertation proposal for some accredited athletics admin-sports management program. It would be expensive research to conduct and the very devil to defend.
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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by TheMackAttack » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:18 pm

It’s almost impossible to grade in hindsight because how do you account for coaching changes, injuries, poor player development, and even good old fashioned bad luck?

You’ll never convince me that Jimbo Fisher isn’t one of the five or ten best coaches in college football, a great recruiter, and great developer of talent, but he had a 6-6 team last year.
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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:31 pm

TheMackAttack wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:18 pm
It’s almost impossible to grade in hindsight because how do you account for coaching changes, injuries, poor player development, and even good old fashioned bad luck?

You’ll never convince me that Jimbo Fisher isn’t one of the five or ten best coaches in college football, a great recruiter, and great developer of talent, but he had a 6-6 team last year.
Poor player development is 100% on the coaches. That is what coaches do more days than coaching in a game.

Injuries can be factored out by only dealing with players that play or are in uniform. Not a pefect system but it is workable.
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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by AtlAppMan » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:04 pm

TheMackAttack wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:18 pm
It’s almost impossible to grade in hindsight because how do you account for coaching changes, injuries, poor player development, and even good old fashioned bad luck?

You’ll never convince me that Jimbo Fisher isn’t one of the five or ten best coaches in college football, a great recruiter, and great developer of talent, but he had a 6-6 team last year.
I disagree that it is impossible to grade in hindsight as that is probably the easiest and most accurate perspective.

However, I do totally agree with you regarding various factors that contribute to outcome such as coaching changes etc etc.

But what I am suggesting is basically a 4-5 year report card on each player compared to their projected star rating coming into college. I am not really trying to grade the analyst although that will be a byproduct or could be derived from the results.

Example: Athlete A comes in with 3 stars. After 4 yrs you look at his body of work and see what he did. Athlete B comes in with 4 stars and sane analysis. You could then average an entire classics another class or vs a class from another school coach. This reflects individual athletes, the coaches and the programs (school). Did the 3 over/under perform vs other 3’s. Same for 4. We often hear UNC-CH teams under perform based on their incoming recruiting but the also put guys in NFL so there was clearly untapped/unmanaged talent while in college.

It is clearly a complex analysis.

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by NewApp » Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:08 pm

AtlAppMan wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:04 pm
TheMackAttack wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:18 pm
It’s almost impossible to grade in hindsight because how do you account for coaching changes, injuries, poor player development, and even good old fashioned bad luck?

You’ll never convince me that Jimbo Fisher isn’t one of the five or ten best coaches in college football, a great recruiter, and great developer of talent, but he had a 6-6 team last year.
I disagree that it is impossible to grade in hindsight as that is probably the easiest and most accurate perspective.

However, I do totally agree with you regarding various factors that contribute to outcome such as coaching changes etc etc.

But what I am suggesting is basically a 4-5 year report card on each player compared to their projected star rating coming into college. I am not really trying to grade the analyst although that will be a byproduct or could be derived from the results.

Example: Athlete A comes in with 3 stars. After 4 yrs you look at his body of work and see what he did. Athlete B comes in with 4 stars and sane analysis. You could then average an entire classics another class or vs a class from another school coach. This reflects individual athletes, the coaches and the programs (school). Did the 3 over/under perform vs other 3’s. Same for 4. We often hear UNC-CH teams under perform based on their incoming recruiting but the also put guys in NFL so there was clearly untapped/unmanaged talent while in college.

It is clearly a complex analysis.
A lot depends on who else on the squad the athlete is having to compete against for PT..
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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by AppSt94 » Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:03 pm

AtlAppMan wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:04 pm
TheMackAttack wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:18 pm
It’s almost impossible to grade in hindsight because how do you account for coaching changes, injuries, poor player development, and even good old fashioned bad luck?

You’ll never convince me that Jimbo Fisher isn’t one of the five or ten best coaches in college football, a great recruiter, and great developer of talent, but he had a 6-6 team last year.
I disagree that it is impossible to grade in hindsight as that is probably the easiest and most accurate perspective.

However, I do totally agree with you regarding various factors that contribute to outcome such as coaching changes etc etc.

But what I am suggesting is basically a 4-5 year report card on each player compared to their projected star rating coming into college. I am not really trying to grade the analyst although that will be a byproduct or could be derived from the results.

Example: Athlete A comes in with 3 stars. After 4 yrs you look at his body of work and see what he did. Athlete B comes in with 4 stars and sane analysis. You could then average an entire classics another class or vs a class from another school coach. This reflects individual athletes, the coaches and the programs (school). Did the 3 over/under perform vs other 3’s. Same for 4. We often hear UNC-CH teams under perform based on their incoming recruiting but the also put guys in NFL so there was clearly untapped/unmanaged talent while in college.

It is clearly a complex analysis.
Acutally I don't think that it has to be that complex at all. One way to simplify all of the valid variables mentioned above would to approach it like the WAR statistic in baseball. "wins above replacement". Factor in snaps played per player per class versus total number of snaps played. Once you have each players Avg. then group them by class and get your average per class.

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by Yosef84 » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:53 am

I would wager that programs have internal ways to "grade" recruiting classes but establishing a comparable footing across the league would be the tough thing to do.

Within a program, using a method for attributing key stats to each position to each player within a class would be pretty easy to do and I have to think this is done almost everywhere. Injuries could be factored out by calculating the stats based on average performance for "available games". Accounting for the depth of the program is the impossible part because some programs are stacked an even a 4/5 star athlete is likely not to start until his junior year. Benchmarking against peer institutions (within a conference for example) would be more meaningful but even that would be tough.

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by NattyBumppo'sRevenge » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:10 am

I think you'd have to grade it against the NFL Draft and free agency. Factors would have to include years in college and which round drafted or if picked up in free agency. Also, if you were a 4 or 5 start and didn't get drafted, or picked up in free agency, that should count negatively against you. Conversely, if you were not rated, a 1 or 2 star, you'd get bonus points if drafted and the better the draft round, the more points as well.

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by Yosef84 » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:29 am

Grading a college recruiting class against NFL draft and free agency would be one metric, but certainly not THE metric for grading a class....at least not at the G5 level.

The elite programs could use this metric pretty reliably but success on the college field at the G5 doesn't require NFL talent (although it certainly helps).

Even at the Elite level this metric would be misleading. Georgia continued putting tons of players in the NFL even during the years when they were significantly underperforming against expectations (based on recruiting).

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by AppStateNews » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:39 am

You guys are fooling yourselves if you don't think this kind of analytics is already being kept. Every player is graded on every play they are in -- whether is a practice, scrimmage, or game. Taking those grades and comparing it to recruiting class is at the very entry level of what is done with the scores. Football is more analytical that most could even imagine.
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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by APPdiesel » Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:36 pm

Wins and losses are the only re-grading services I need.
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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:57 pm

AtlAppMan wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:27 pm
Does anyone know if there is an existing process/system in place that grades schools' past recruiting classes based on actual performance over their 4-5 years when the students were at the school and performing on/off the field?

We always hear all the hoopla about an incoming class but that is all based rankings from analyst projecting what their potential is. I would like to see a ranking of schools/coaches recruiting based on results of the kids once they arrive at the school and play ball (or not, leave, never see playing field, etc.). At the team level, we can probably say with certainty that Satt and team are generally over performing based on the average recruiting class vs other schools. I am speaking on a player by player basis in this situation vs overall team performance (which is extremely important itself).

For App we all talk about our student athletes not getting the star ranking they deserve compared with other schools. This would either prove or disprove that our coaches are over/under performing vs the recruiting experts.
Yes there is!!!!

Here is the link: https://sunbeltsports.org/standings.aspx?path=football

For the last 3 years we have proven our classes from 2014, 2015, and 2016 are 1st or worst case tied for 1st in the SBC.

I know my post came off sarcastic at first but it is the only way to prove if a class is good. We had the top class in those years for sure.

For example, look at last year and we can already tell that Peoples is going to be a monster but yet he was a low 2-star by the websites. The websites did not give him a legit look. Why would we care what they rank us when they don't even look at the players?

Here is further proof of why I don't give a crap what they say and nobody here should either.

https://www.si.com/college-football/201 ... ite-policy

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by AtlAppMan » Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:19 pm

You are correct and I totally agree that the overall team results speak to some level of truth (objective) vs incoming recruit ratings/rankings which are very subjective. There is no question App has proven that the collective recruiting classes we have enjoyed while in the SB is at or near the top vs our conference piers despite that year over year we are ranked at middle or lower portion of SB recruiting classes. That definitely proves there is something rotten in the rankings process.

However, what I originally was asking was more on a player by player basis. There are other factors that must be considered when viewing overall results such as coaching, etc. An example is UNC has historically recruited top players that ultimately land in the NFL proving the players themselves had top tier talent but their team results have been less than stellar. That proves that individual players can be very good even though the collective team never achieves the same level of success.

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Re: Grading Football Recruiting from past years

Unread post by Rekdiver » Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:42 pm

Once you get past high 4 star recruits it’s a crap shoot.....

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