Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

HighlandsApp · Unread post by **HighlandsApp** » Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:50 am

Who’s getting the mid-major New Year’s Six bowl bid?
Here are your eight Group of 5 teams with at least a 10 percent chance of finishing with zero to one losses (again, not including conference title games).

North Texas: 62 percent (23 percent chance of finishing unbeaten)
Buffalo: 57 percent (17 percent)
UCF: 54 percent (16 percent)
Appalachian State: 51 percent
Boise State: 21 percent
USF: 16 percent (two percent)
Memphis: 14 percent
Cincinnati: 10 percent (one percent)
A lot of old reliables mixed in with some new surprises.

This is a surprisingly high statistical chance for ole AppState. I like it.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... tions-2018

T-Dog · Unread post by **T-Dog** » Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:27 am

We need North Texas, Buffalo and UCF to all lose twice and Boise to lose once more. And Penn State to beat Ohio State this weekend.

It's not likely, but it's possible. But most everything is out of our hands besides winning the rest of our games, which won't be easy.

GregPercussion · Unread post by **GregPercussion** » Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:34 am

Yeah, I like the odds. Better than anything we've had before, but it's still one of "the stars need to align" before anything may come to pass. But hey, Go Apps!

Rick83 · Unread post by **Rick83** » Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:19 am

It's fun just being in the conversation even though it's still early in the season..

Yosef84 · Unread post by **Yosef84** » Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:23 am

The problem with statistical models is they don't account for the bias in the system towards those "known" commodities like Boise State and now UCF.

AtlAppMan · Unread post by **AtlAppMan** » Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:28 pm

We have to win out AND lay waste to most opponents.

It will help big time if Penn State makes CFP.

Boone Goon · Unread post by **Boone Goon** » Tue Sep 25, 2018 3:28 pm

Penn State's success is key...we both have to win out for us to have a shot at this, and even then its a long shot.

APPdiesel · Unread post by **APPdiesel** » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:18 pm

Bless. If stats and computer models seemed to mean much to the voters this would be killer news. The eye test carries so much weight.

ericsaid · Unread post by **ericsaid** » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:00 pm

AtlAppMan wrote: ↑
Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:28 pm
We have to win out AND lay waste to most opponents.

It will help big time if Penn State makes CFP.

Then App should be considered for a CFP to be fair, correct? If Penn State gets a 1 seed, you'd think App would at least be worth a 4.

Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

Re: Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

Re: Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

Re: Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

Re: Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

Re: Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

Re: Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

Re: Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

Re: Bill Conley and his S&P+ model New Year's Day Bowling

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