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Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:59 am
by NattyBumppo'sRevenge
Rick83 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:50 am
NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:15 am
appstatealum wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:05 am
AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:50 am
This is why I don't put much stock into computers. Sagarin is the best and they have some crazy stuff in there. No way NDSU is a top 20 team, Texas should be higher, Miss St should be lower, and there are many others that just don't make sense based on what we know for sure.
No way we are that high right now. We are ahead of Penn State who we lost to and we did not beat anyone in the top 50. Not sure how they come up with this?
If I am a college student or a player or even in the support staff this is super cool to see but the coaches know that is not legit and any responsible fan knows we should not be that high. Had we beat Penn State and Georgia Southern then I would buy it.
Well you just took a fresh dump on our party......
He also agreed with the Tennessee chick with 6 posts on YC that said App fans were delusional to think we could be consistently a top 25 partially because we are in the Boone market. He needs a bidet.
I'm staying in the delusional camp...been called far worse..
I'm with you and at least we can claim we are a football school.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:59 am
by Longrifle28
It's nice to get the recognition, however, its hard to justify.
Currently Sagarin has us at 36 (NDSU at 19?). Massey has us at 32. Our strength of schedule is 79 and will always be what holds us back. With that strength of schedule we have to basically go undefeated to have a chance to get into the top 20.
I think we end the season somewhere around 30 to 35, and probably begin next year in the 30 to 40 range.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:17 am
by Rick83
The S&P rating system is not a normal poll like some of you are thinking:
S&P+ is designed to track overall team efficiency.
It can be used to make predictions, similar to the analytics systems Vegas uses.
It is, at its heart, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of what college football teams can most consistently do to win football games.
Success rate and equivalent Points per play. It was an attempt at an OPS-style measure for football, a look at both efficiency and explosiveness. As so many things do, however, it has grown more complicated.
In its current state, S&P+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:43 am
by AppStFan1
appstatealum wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:05 am
AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:50 am
This is why I don't put much stock into computers. Sagarin is the best and they have some crazy stuff in there. No way NDSU is a top 20 team, Texas should be higher, Miss St should be lower, and there are many others that just don't make sense based on what we know for sure.
No way we are that high right now. We are ahead of Penn State who we lost to and we did not beat anyone in the top 50. Not sure how they come up with this?
If I am a college student or a player or even in the support staff this is super cool to see but the coaches know that is not legit and any responsible fan knows we should not be that high. Had we beat Penn State and Georgia Southern then I would buy it.
Well you just took a fresh dump on our party......
I'm a realist. I don't want to feel like a top 15 team. I want to BE a top 15 team.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:02 pm
by MountaineerMafia
ericsaid wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:07 pm
MountaineerMafia wrote: ↑Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:15 pm
It won't happen. New coach, losing a few important players/leaders, and being in a bad conference will all be reasons why we won't be. We'll have to earn it. Honestly, with how bad UNC is we could beat them and still not be ranked. Depends on how they start the year off but don't expect many people (other than here in NC) to be excited about a win over UNC.
The Sun Belt is nearly on par with the MWC, having three 10 win teams. I wouldn't say the Sun Belt is a bad conference and neither would the statistics.
It is a bad conference as a whole. The top 2-3 teams can compete pretty well with a lot of other top G5's and most P5's but the bottom half of the conference is awful. It brings the conference down as a whole.
Ask people that aren't fans of App State or any other Sun Belt team, most people haven't got a clue what conference we are in. My dad followed App with me during the FCS days and he's asked me twice this year what conference we are in (lives in PA). It's not even really a disrespectful thing either. When you don't have noticeable schools and a lot of former FCS schools people just don't respect that conference. Voters see this and hold it against us (or other top SB teams).
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:06 pm
by APPdiesel
Haven't commented on this yet, but we have a better chance of getting ranked at the end of this season than preseason next year. Preseason rankings favor the optimism of a new year, teams with coaching stability, and player retention. We only have 2 of those 3.
We made our way onto more radars this year but voters will take a wait and see approach. I wouldn't expect it in either poll. Maybe in the 30-35 range.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:15 pm
by Yosef84
If the voters pay attention to the small number of seniors we have leaving, we could sneak into the pre-season ranking but I would be shocked if that happened. We will start higher than we did this this but I'm guessing mid-thirties.
For the record, the "average" fan couldn't tell you what conferences UFC and Boise State are in either. They recognize the teams as being strong but the typical fan of a P5 team can't even name the G5 conferences.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:17 pm
by AppStFan1
APPdiesel wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:06 pm
Haven't commented on this yet, but we have a better chance of getting ranked at the end of this season than preseason next year. Preseason rankings favor the optimism of a new year, teams with coaching stability, and player retention. We only have 2 of those 3.
We made our way onto more radars this year but voters will take a wait and see approach. I wouldn't expect it in either poll. Maybe in the 30-35 range.
Probably right on this but I don't think we start out ranked in either. Voters have no reason to vote for us in preseason due to coaching change, losing a couple players, and the fact that we did not beat anyone major. Had we been undefeated this year we would have began next year ranked but I expect 27-35 range in preseason. Voters will take wait and see approach...and guess what a responsible voter should. If we were in the SEC and debating a MAC or SBC school the rest of us would agree as well. In fact most would laugh and say that SBC team isn't anywhere near top 25. You want to be viewed as a legit top 25? Beat P5 teams.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:37 pm
by ericsaid
MountaineerMafia wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:02 pm
ericsaid wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:07 pm
MountaineerMafia wrote: ↑Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:15 pm
It won't happen. New coach, losing a few important players/leaders, and being in a bad conference will all be reasons why we won't be. We'll have to earn it. Honestly, with how bad UNC is we could beat them and still not be ranked. Depends on how they start the year off but don't expect many people (other than here in NC) to be excited about a win over UNC.
The Sun Belt is nearly on par with the MWC, having three 10 win teams. I wouldn't say the Sun Belt is a bad conference and neither would the statistics.
It is a bad conference as a whole. The top 2-3 teams can compete pretty well with a lot of other top G5's and most P5's but the bottom half of the conference is awful. It brings the conference down as a whole.
Ask people that aren't fans of App State or any other Sun Belt team, most people haven't got a clue what conference we are in. My dad followed App with me during the FCS days and he's asked me twice this year what conference we are in (lives in PA). It's not even really a disrespectful thing either. When you don't have noticeable schools and a lot of former FCS schools people just don't respect that conference. Voters see this and hold it against us (or other top SB teams).
The same thing about the bottom half of any conference can be said. The SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Pac 12, Big 12, AAC, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC all have the issue of top to bottom strength.
The Sun Belt made out very well with the addition of App, Southern, and Coastal while dumping NMSU, Idaho, FIU, and FAU from the conference. Losing MTSU and WKU was likely not the best loss but it totaled out just fine. The conference had 6 out of 10 teams with winning records on the season and Coastal was a bad loss against USA away from being a 7th bowl eligible team. A G5 conference having 70% of their teams Bowl Eligible would be a huge accomplishment and likely not something examined by most people.
Arkansas State, Troy, and App State have all received Top 25 consideration the past three seasons. Georgia Southern was receiving votes heading in to bowl season. The respect factor is there. I suspect App could be ranked to begin 2019 but will likely be a 3-0 start away from getting there. The Sun Belt actually has a shot to get multiple teams ranked in the Top 25 in 2019 with the rise of the league the past few years. Don't doubt that voters have begun to take notice of the Sun Belt and how they perform against the MAC and C-USA.
The Sun Belt's 7th team beat C-USA's champion. App demolished MTSU the runner up. USA nearly beat Louisiana Tech.
If perception is a problem, it's an issue with marketing by the Sun Belt. The ability to get on ESPN, get your programs on National TV, coaches getting interviews, trying to get airtime during talk shows, etc. will help.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:20 pm
by AppStFan1
ericsaid wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:37 pm
MountaineerMafia wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:02 pm
ericsaid wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:07 pm
MountaineerMafia wrote: ↑Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:15 pm
It won't happen. New coach, losing a few important players/leaders, and being in a bad conference will all be reasons why we won't be. We'll have to earn it. Honestly, with how bad UNC is we could beat them and still not be ranked. Depends on how they start the year off but don't expect many people (other than here in NC) to be excited about a win over UNC.
The Sun Belt is nearly on par with the MWC, having three 10 win teams. I wouldn't say the Sun Belt is a bad conference and neither would the statistics.
It is a bad conference as a whole. The top 2-3 teams can compete pretty well with a lot of other top G5's and most P5's but the bottom half of the conference is awful. It brings the conference down as a whole.
Ask people that aren't fans of App State or any other Sun Belt team, most people haven't got a clue what conference we are in. My dad followed App with me during the FCS days and he's asked me twice this year what conference we are in (lives in PA). It's not even really a disrespectful thing either. When you don't have noticeable schools and a lot of former FCS schools people just don't respect that conference. Voters see this and hold it against us (or other top SB teams).
The same thing about the bottom half of any conference can be said. The SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Pac 12, Big 12, AAC, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC all have the issue of top to bottom strength.
The Sun Belt made out very well with the addition of App, Southern, and Coastal while dumping NMSU, Idaho, FIU, and FAU from the conference. Losing MTSU and WKU was likely not the best loss but it totaled out just fine. The conference had 6 out of 10 teams with winning records on the season and Coastal was a bad loss against USA away from being a 7th bowl eligible team. A G5 conference having 70% of their teams Bowl Eligible would be a huge accomplishment and likely not something examined by most people.
Arkansas State, Troy, and App State have all received Top 25 consideration the past three seasons. Georgia Southern was receiving votes heading in to bowl season. The respect factor is there. I suspect App could be ranked to begin 2019 but will likely be a 3-0 start away from getting there. The Sun Belt actually has a shot to get multiple teams ranked in the Top 25 in 2019 with the rise of the league the past few years. Don't doubt that voters have begun to take notice of the Sun Belt and how they perform against the MAC and C-USA.
The Sun Belt's 7th team beat C-USA's champion. App demolished MTSU the runner up. USA nearly beat Louisiana Tech.
If perception is a problem, it's an issue with marketing by the Sun Belt. The ability to get on ESPN, get your programs on National TV, coaches getting interviews, trying to get airtime during talk shows, etc. will help.
It is pretty clear right now the SBC East is a very strong part of G5 football but the west is weaker and more like the mid level of CUSA and MAC. I firmly believe App, GSU, and Troy would beat every team in the MWC except for Fresno State.
One thing to keep in mind is prestige and how well known teams are. The top teams in the SBC are new for the most part so folks look at the league as weak because FCS teams came up and started winning. Perception is the league is weaker. There is really a lot of parity right now. Not a big difference between #4-6 in ACC and #1-#2 in SBC but the top 10 teams in the country would still roll us. Just like the top 5 teams in the FCS would probably beat the bottom 2-3 in the SBC, MAC, and probably the bottom half of the MAC. Shoot I think NDSU would only lose to Fresno State, App, Cincinnati, UCF, and Utah State at the G5 level most likely.
I personally think CUSA and SBC teams need to all keep a weekend open for a CUSA/SBC challenge where we face each other and it would be neat to keep open until the spring prior to the year. It could set up good matchups MTSU vs GSU, App vs UAB, and North Texas vs. Troy. That would be ideal for ESPN on a Thursday or even noon game on a Saturday. We need a strong OOC because of the perception of the SBC and lack of depth in good teams after just Georgia Southern and Troy. Louisiana and Arkansas State are solid but they aren't playing P5 teams close like those from the east.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:54 am
by 97APP
All conferences have three levels of teams. The top teams don't change levels as often as the middle and bottom teams do. What the Sunbelt has accomplished lately is that the top level and the middle level have grown thus shrinking the bottom. Before we joined, the SBC seemed to have one top team each year and a couple of middle teams and then the bottom was bloated. Now we seem to have only a couple of teams that are true FBS bottom dwellers. This is helping our computer rankings and the human polls are always behind. But, I do think that the more often we receive AP/Coaches poll votes and can receive high rankings in the computer polls the higher ceiling we have.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:31 am
by Rick83
Now that the official final AP poll has us at a frustratingly close #26, does anyone besides me think we have a legitimate shot at a pre-season Top 25 ranking for 2019? The assumption was that we wouldn't have any additional significant player losses, which of course would change things.
Thought I'd ask again since we were so close to a final Top 25 ranking for this past season.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:41 am
by biggie
Voters will take us down due the coaching change though.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:45 am
by biggie
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:47 am
by MrCraig
Rick83 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:31 am
Now that the official final AP poll has us at a frustratingly close #26, does anyone besides me think we have a legitimate shot at a pre-season Top 25 ranking for 2019? The assumption was that we wouldn't have any additional significant player losses, which of course would change things.
Thought I'd ask again since we were so close to a final Top 25 ranking for this past season.
Nope! Do we probably deserve to be a preseason Top 25 team? Sure! But the voters are going to give preseason votes to P5 legacy teams over us every single time. Teams like USC, Penn St, Notre Dame, Nebraska, etc. will ALWAYS get preseason love no matter what happened the year before, or what will probably happen that year. I didn't go way back, but since 2016 the preseason AP poll has only had 4 G5 teams listed: Boise, UCF, USF, and Houston. Will we be in the Top 25 if we win our first 3 games? I'd be surprised if we aren't, but we won't be in the preseason Top 25.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:16 am
by BeauFoster
Agree with MrCraig - it's unlikely that we start the season in the top 25 for multiple reasons. It took Boise several years of finishing in the final top 25 ranking to crack the poll in the subsequent season's preseason ranking. Voters have to recognize our name to think about us, and we haven't reached that spot (yet). Preseason polls are a sham, but we all know that.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:03 am
by MAD Doctor
What is critical is that we shake the albatross around our necks of coming close, but falling short to P5 teams. It's nice to compete, but you won't find many ranked teams who didn't beat ANY P5 teams. The "Yeah, but we would have beaten Wake and Tennessee if not for an extra point or field goal, and if Penn State dropped that 4th down pass....." excuses mean squat if you are looking to crack the Top 25. Satt's teams catapulted us to a higher level, but never beat a P5, much less a ranked one. Hopefully, Drink and Company can push across that line. We'll have two good chances in the fall. If we don't beat AT LEAST one, if not both of the Carolinas, we probably don't deserve to be in the discussion. I want to see this team take the field at Kenan fully expecting to win and get it done.
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:09 am
by bigdaddyg
I hate the P5 obsession but I guess it’s just a reality. I believe that next season will really let us know where we are as a program. For the first time in years we play P5 schools who are not peaking or legit top 10 schools. Both will be tough but if we are truly legit top 20 material we take both Carolinas down. Even if both of those teams finish poorly we can’t let that opportunity slip by. Barring a rash of transfers our offense should be powerful for at least the next two seasons considering all of the sophomores who played significant minutes this season
Re: Top 25 Preseason Ranking for 2019?
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:10 am
by AppStFan1
MAD Doctor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:03 am
What is critical is that we shake the albatross around our necks of coming close, but falling short to P5 teams. It's nice to compete, but you won't find many ranked teams who didn't beat ANY P5 teams. The "Yeah, but we
would have beaten Wake and Tennessee if not for an extra point or field goal, and if Penn State dropped that 4th down pass....." excuses mean squat if you are looking to crack the Top 25. Satt's teams catapulted us to a higher level, but never beat a P5, much less a ranked one. Hopefully, Drink and Company can push across that line. We'll have two good chances in the fall. If we don't beat AT LEAST one, if not both of the Carolinas, we probably don't deserve to be in the discussion. I want to see this team take the field at Kenan fully expecting to win and get it done.
Agree here. If we lose to both SC and UNC then I don't care what happens with the rest of our schedule, we don't deserve to be ranked.