SB Nation just came out with the early 2019 S&P+ rankings and has Appalachian State at #31 overall.

Notables: We are #1 for Sunbelt (Troy is 2nd ranked SunBelt Team at #69 (nice)). We are #4 in G5 schools behind #24 Boise State, #26 Memphis, and #27 UCF.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... rojections

Impressive. Coaching staff has a lot of weight on their shoulders.

Perceptions are definitely starting to change. Last year This same ranking had the SBC far behind both CUSA and the MAC. This year we are far ahead of both with CUSA positioned firmly in the rear.

HighlandsApp wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:13 pm

Impressive. Coaching staff has a lot of weight on their shoulders.

What Coaching staff

Me Likey!

The power house program in Charlotte is 120

97APP wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:18 pm

Perceptions are definitely starting to change. Last year This same ranking had the SBC far behind both CUSA and the MAC. This year we are far ahead of both with CUSA positioned firmly in the rear.

S&P is pure statistical. There is no perception factored into this ranking.

And BTW we were #29 in the final 2018 ranking.

Still nice to be a top 5 G5.

JMappfan5 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:45 pm

HighlandsApp wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:13 pm

Impressive. Coaching staff has a lot of weight on their shoulders.

What Coaching staff

To be fair, we dominated Middle Tennessee State with fewer coaches.

AtlAppMan wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:31 pm

97APP wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:18 pm

Perceptions are definitely starting to change. Last year This same ranking had the SBC far behind both CUSA and the MAC. This year we are far ahead of both with CUSA positioned firmly in the rear.

S&P is pure statistical. There is no perception factored into this ranking.

And BTW we were #29 in the final 2018 ranking.

Still nice to be a top 5 G5.

Thanks for the clarification, I was just looking at the ranking and didn't see how it was developed. Makes my original point invalid, but, it clearly shows our growth from the previous year. So, maybe some of the pollsters will now have something analytical to support a more favorable view of the competition in the SBC.

We will crack the Top 25 when we go to Chapel Hill and beat UNC

For those that care, Nerd Alert, The S&P+ rankings is a statistical prediction ranking. This was developed by Bill Connelly. Essentially, what goes into it is a weighted 4 yr recruiting ranking (67% this yr, 15% last year, 15% yr before that and 3% yr before that) next is returning production both offense and defense... as a note he also made "projected" changes to last yrs number... btw this makes up the vast majority of the S&P+ rankings. Also included is recent history 2-5 yrs ago. I always find his stuff interesting. One of the things to remember when the season comes is that he uses these rankings to project winners. It is not the rankings... it is his model.

so...just to be petty...Appalachian is the highest ranked team in North Carolina on that list

AppFan11 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:46 am

For those that care, Nerd Alert, The S&P+ rankings is a statistical prediction ranking. This was developed by Bill Connelly. Essentially, what goes into it is a weighted 4 yr recruiting ranking (67% this yr, 15% last year, 15% yr before that and 3% yr before that) next is returning production both offense and defense... as a note he also made "projected" changes to last yrs number... btw this makes up the vast majority of the S&P+ rankings. Also included is recent history 2-5 yrs ago. I always find his stuff interesting. One of the things to remember when the season comes is that he uses these rankings to project winners. It is not the rankings... it is his model.

Correct, good clarification. I'm also a self-proclaimed stats nerd so I typically rely on S&P+ among other models rather than arbitrary polls using judgement calls. I honestly catch myself forgetting or ignoring the AP, Coaches, etc. and leaning on these type of rankings.

I know what the reaction to this is going to be: but we really HAVE to do more than be competitive against our ACC and SEC opponents next year.

appgrad95&97 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:24 pm

I know what the reaction to this is going to be: but we really HAVE to do more than be competitive against our ACC and SEC opponents next year.

Agree. For years we have rationalized losing to the P5 teams by saying that we got them on their way up. We know how close we came with PSU, UT and Wake. A break here or there and we take them all...but.

Now we get a down UNC team and a middle of the road USC team. If we are truly a legit top 25 team we must beat at least one of them and avoid a bad loss against the other.

bigdaddyg wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:28 pm

appgrad95&97 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:24 pm

I know what the reaction to this is going to be: but we really HAVE to do more than be competitive against our ACC and SEC opponents next year.

Agree. For years we have rationalized losing to the P5 teams by saying that we got them on their way up. We know how close we came with PSU, UT and Wake. A break here or there and we take them all...but.

Now we get a down UNC team and a middle of the road USC team. If we are truly a legit top 25 team we must beat at least one of them and avoid a bad loss against the other.

The problem with Yosef's Cabin is that there's not a "I'm deep in love" with your post option. I would add, were Tennessee, Miami, or Wake on the "way up".

I'm pretty sure we're not getting a "down" UNC team. We're getting a team that was down in 2018. The Tar Heels went 2-9 with two overtime losses and four losses decided by a touchdown or less. In my book, that team was snakebit. That's partly due to Larry Fedora's struggles as a head coach and partly due to the fickle nature of football (see the Virginia Tech loss). I'd say we'll see a vastly improved UNC team under Mack Brown in 2019. We underestimate them at our peril.

AppGrad78 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:44 pm

I'm pretty sure we're not getting a "down" UNC team. We're getting a team that was down in 2018. The Tar Heels went 2-9 with two overtime losses and four losses decided by a touchdown or less. In my book, that team was snakebit. That's partly due to Larry Fedora's struggles as a head coach and partly due to the fickle nature of football (see the Virginia Tech loss). I'd say we'll see a vastly improved UNC team under Mack Brown in 2019. We underestimate them at our peril.

They also had like 13 players suspended for multiple games because of selling their shoes or something last season.

Rick83 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:49 pm

AppGrad78 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:44 pm

I'm pretty sure we're not getting a "down" UNC team. We're getting a team that was down in 2018. The Tar Heels went 2-9 with two overtime losses and four losses decided by a touchdown or less. In my book, that team was snakebit. That's partly due to Larry Fedora's struggles as a head coach and partly due to the fickle nature of football (see the Virginia Tech loss). I'd say we'll see a vastly improved UNC team under Mack Brown in 2019. We underestimate them at our peril.

They also had like 13 players suspended for multiple games because of selling their shoes or something last season.

There should never be an argument that we are one of the best 25 teams in the country if we loose those games.

appgrad95&97 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:53 pm

Rick83 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:49 pm

AppGrad78 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:44 pm

I'm pretty sure we're not getting a "down" UNC team. We're getting a team that was down in 2018. The Tar Heels went 2-9 with two overtime losses and four losses decided by a touchdown or less. In my book, that team was snakebit. That's partly due to Larry Fedora's struggles as a head coach and partly due to the fickle nature of football (see the Virginia Tech loss). I'd say we'll see a vastly improved UNC team under Mack Brown in 2019. We underestimate them at our peril.

They also had like 13 players suspended for multiple games because of selling their shoes or something last season.

There should never be an argument that we are one of the best 25 teams in the country if we loose those games.

I'm not sure why you're taking this in that direction but since you have. I would think that it would depend on what else they do. In 2018, we lost 2 games, one badly to a G5 Sun Belt team and an OT loss to a Big 10 team that went 9-4. Despite those two losses we finished at #26 in the AP poll and would have been top 25 had Virginia Tech beaten Cincinnati in their bowl game. So, I would think it would depend on how the UNC and USC games go and what kind of season they each have as well as how we handle the rest of our games. The 2018 season will not have a direct bearing on how 2019 goes, especially in UNC's situation. The Tar Heels in particular are not going to want to lose to us and will be highly motivated, the fact that they're facing Clemson the week after us helps. Now, I'm hoping and even expecting to win in Chapel Hill and Columbia but both games will be a challenge.