2019 Appalachian State Football Schedule Analysis

[Rick83]

From "College Football News" 2019 projections (Spring version):

Conf championship games and bowl games are not factored in, just regular season wins.

FUTURE WIN TOTAL PROJECTIONS: 9
Appalachian State
2018 Record: 10-3 {WRONG! We were 11-2!!}

2019 Future Win Total Projection: 9

3 Key Games: 1) at Troy, Nov. 30, 2) Georgia Southern, Oct. 31, 3) at Louisiana, Oct. 9

– The non-conference slate isn’t all that bad to kick things off against East Tennessee State and Charlotte, but it’s the week off before going North Carolina that really matters. There’s another week off before going to South Carolina in early November – both Carolina teams need to be worried.

– The showdown in the East against Troy isn’t until the end of the slate, and it’s on the road. The Georgia Southern game is at home, but it’s the lone home game among a run of three road games in four dates. There are only two home games from September 28th to November 23rd.

– The Mountaineers get to miss Arkansas State from the West – it’s a massive break. The games against South Alabama and Louisiana from the West are on the road, and the ULM and Texas State games are at home.

[GregPercussion]

Lots of potential this season. It will either be great and one to remember or a lot of "too close" games that don't go in our favor this time.

[Saint3333]

Miss Ark St, nah they will have a down year this year. ULL is the clear class of the west, whoever avoided them got lucky.

[EastHallApp]

A massive break for whom?

[appchicago]

Miss Ark St, nah they will have a down year this year. ULL is the clear class of the west, whoever avoided them got lucky.

That stuck out to me too. I think their SunBelt knowledge is a little stale.

[ClickClackApp]

Very glad that GaSo and ULM are at home. ULM is going to catch a lot of people off guard this year and will be a very formidable team that will have the ability to beat anyone. With Texas State's new coach they're a wild card. Again, glad they're at home. Troy being away is no less of a concern than normal, even with their coaching change.

Playing ULL on the road will be very tough. Very.

Missing Ark State will, if the stars align, allow the possibility to have a fantastic SunBelt CCG with App. Let's hope that happens at Kidd Brewer.

I hope Coach Drink has every kink ironed out before UNCC. I couldn't stand the embarrassment to lose to them.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

[bigdaddyg]

Don’t we still potentially bring the absolute most explosive team we’ve had, like ever? With the personnel we return I keep reading predictions of up to 4 losses. We haven’t lost that many in years

[Yosef84]

People are hedging bets because of the coaching turnover. Also, you can never underestimate opponents who are also improving (UL in particular).

[EastHallApp]

Don’t we still potentially bring the absolute most explosive team we’ve had, like ever? With the personnel we return I keep reading predictions of up to 4 losses. We haven’t lost that many in years

Two years, to be precise.

[AppSt94]

Don’t we still potentially bring the absolute most explosive team we’ve had, like ever? With the personnel we return I keep reading predictions of up to 4 losses. We haven’t lost that many in years

Of our 12 opponents, two have a higher talent level than us and two have talent that rivals us. Unfortunately, we play all four on the road.

[Black Saturday]

Don’t we still potentially bring the absolute most explosive team we’ve had, like ever? With the personnel we return I keep reading predictions of up to 4 losses. We haven’t lost that many in years

Of our 12 opponents, two have a higher talent level than us and two have talent that rivals us. Unfortunately, we play all four on the road.

That's a fair and true assessment, however I like our chances.

[Yosef84]

The good news is that neither of the two programs with a higher level of talent on the roster has the tradition and motivation that App has. I'm assuming that the two programs with comparable talent are Troy and UL. I can't completely argue that but UL is still trying to build. Troy is replacing a huge number of starters and has had two additional defensive starters enter the transfer portal. Troy will be re-building. GS has talent but I don't think they match App.

[appstatealum]

Don’t we still potentially bring the absolute most explosive team we’ve had, like ever? With the personnel we return I keep reading predictions of up to 4 losses. We haven’t lost that many in years

Two years, Chris.

[appchicago]

The good news is that neither of the two programs with a higher level of talent on the roster has the tradition and motivation that App has.

I mean, motivation is debateable, but as someone who grew up in SC and got a graduate degree from USC, I don't think we can play the "tradition" card. True, the Gamecocks aren't the class of the SEC (or even the east) at the moment, but they've only had two or three losing seasons in the last 15 years, and they're only 5 years removed from a chain of 11-win seasons. They won the SEC East in 2010 and finished in the top 10 in '11, '12, and '13. They knocked off a #1 ranked 'Bama team while I was living in Columbia and it was absolute bedlam.

And back in the Brad Scott and early Lou Holtz days when they had the longest losing streak in the country, they were STILL selling out Williams-Brice. For example, after USC had lost 17 consecutive games, they still had 75,000 people turn up to watch them lose at home to Vanderbilt with a final score of 11-10. Oof. And I'm sorry, but can you imagine what our stadium would look like if we went on a two-season losing streak?

I'm a Mountaineer through and through, but I don't think we can get too high on our horse when it comes to tradition when compared to the Gamecocks. Heck, I'll even go back to that question of motivation. With the exception of their TERRIBLE bowl showing, they didn't lose a single game last season to an unranked team, and two of those losses were by less than 5 points. They scored more on the damn-near-impenetrable Clemson defense than any other team last season. 35 points on that defense. Crazy.

We underestimate any opponent at our peril, but SC is a legit solid team. They lost some at graduation (Deebo, for instance), but Jake Bentley is back and they are going to be a tough out for anyone. And with a November game, there'll be no element of surprise. If they're rolling, they won't want to stumble with a G5 team, and if they're having a disappointing year, they'll be scrambling to salvage the season.

[Yosef84]

Appchicago,
I think you read more into the tradition statement than was intended. Yes, South Carolina does have tradition and I actually see them as more dangerous than UNC. Both schools have plenty of tradition in general. Neither, however, has a championship tradition in football. P5 schools will always have a tendency to look past the "lesser" program as if to assume it's a win. They generally don't prepare with intensity. UNC plays Clemson the following week. South Carolina has Texas A&M the following week. Some of that will depend on what happens in previous games. IF App is able to win against UNC and goes into Columbia undefeated, I'm sure we will catch their attention.

The Gamecocks have had some very good teams in the past but even in their best years they have a history of inconsistency. That being said even when they were NOT good, they have always seemed to be dangerous even to the top teams. I was raised a Georgia fan, and I know that has never been a game that could be dismissed even when the odds makers seemed to believe it was.

I absolutely agree that we can't underestimate ANY of our opponents, least of all these two. Mack Brown will likely have the Heels believing again and South Carolina is always dangerous. My comments above are about potential. That's what next season is about. We have the ability to compete with any team on our schedule. The potential is there, but we absolutely can't make assumptions. I won't view the season as a failure if we drop one, or even both of these....as long as we're playing good solid App State football.

[appchicago]

Right on. I see what you mean. I still think you might be underestimating how the Gamecocks see themselves (fans and players alike). They see themselves as a football school in a slight rut and as temporarily outmatched rivals to Clemson. Clemson has won the last five Palmetto Bowls, but SC won five in a row before that.

BUT! I hope they do look past us. Actually, I hope we're so good, it doesn't MATTER if they look past us or not. Like I said, I have a degree from USC and own a Gamecocks hoodie, but it'll be nowhere in sight on 11/9.

[Yosef84]

Right on. I see what you mean. I still think you might be underestimating how the Gamecocks see themselves (fans and players alike). They see themselves as a football school in a slight rut and as temporarily outmatched rivals to Clemson. Clemson has won the last five Palmetto Bowls, but SC won five in a row before that.

BUT! I hope they do look past us. Actually, I hope we're so good, it doesn't MATTER if they look past us or not. Like I said, I have a degree from USC and own a Gamecocks hoodie, but it'll be nowhere in sight on 11/9.

I completely agree that they see themselves that way. I just think that they re delusional in doing so. Yes, they won games against Clemson prior to Dabo....as did everybody else. Clemson under Dabo has become an entirely different animal and SC and never been in that league. I basically agree with everything you said though.

[AppStFan1]

From "College Football News" 2019 projections (Spring version):

Conf championship games and bowl games are not factored in, just regular season wins.

FUTURE WIN TOTAL PROJECTIONS: 9
Appalachian State
2018 Record: 10-3 {WRONG! We were 11-2!!}

2019 Future Win Total Projection: 9

3 Key Games: 1) at Troy, Nov. 30, 2) Georgia Southern, Oct. 31, 3) at Louisiana, Oct. 9

– The non-conference slate isn’t all that bad to kick things off against East Tennessee State and Charlotte, but it’s the week off before going North Carolina that really matters. There’s another week off before going to South Carolina in early November – both Carolina teams need to be worried.

– The showdown in the East against Troy isn’t until the end of the slate, and it’s on the road. The Georgia Southern game is at home, but it’s the lone home game among a run of three road games in four dates. There are only two home games from September 28th to November 23rd.

– The Mountaineers get to miss Arkansas State from the West – it’s a massive break. The games against South Alabama and Louisiana from the West are on the road, and the ULM and Texas State games are at home.

They need to learn the SBC more. They are going off preseason hype from last year. Arkansas State is not that great. Troy, Ga Southern, and Lafayette should all be better. No to mention the fact that if we only win 9 games, including a bowl game, I will say that Drink should be fired. We have way too much talent to lose 4-5 games and if we just win 9 games that is 5 losses. We should be calling for heads and pink slips on our FB staff if we are 9-5 or 10-4.

To me our toughest games are South Carolina and Troy. UNC and Georgia Southern look tough on paper and I respect GSU but we have them at home in a revenge game and UNC is down this year. We should win both of those games.

I don't see anyone else but Troy having enough talent to beat us unless we are decimated by injuries and that game being on the road does make it a tough one. It is a revenge game for them as well. So I think that one is a tossup.

85% of our production returns, we have a new HC who is likely to open up the playbook more, and we have more returning All-SBC talent than anyone else so I don't see why anyone would project us to drop this year. A new coach can come in and improve a team or keep it on the same track. I expect us to be listed as RV in the preseason polls and projected to win the SBC by about everyone.

[Rick83]

From "College Football News" 2019 projections (Spring version):

Conf championship games and bowl games are not factored in, just regular season wins.

FUTURE WIN TOTAL PROJECTIONS: 9
Appalachian State
2018 Record: 10-3 {WRONG! We were 11-2!!}

2019 Future Win Total Projection: 9

3 Key Games: 1) at Troy, Nov. 30, 2) Georgia Southern, Oct. 31, 3) at Louisiana, Oct. 9

– The non-conference slate isn’t all that bad to kick things off against East Tennessee State and Charlotte, but it’s the week off before going North Carolina that really matters. There’s another week off before going to South Carolina in early November – both Carolina teams need to be worried.

– The showdown in the East against Troy isn’t until the end of the slate, and it’s on the road. The Georgia Southern game is at home, but it’s the lone home game among a run of three road games in four dates. There are only two home games from September 28th to November 23rd.

– The Mountaineers get to miss Arkansas State from the West – it’s a massive break. The games against South Alabama and Louisiana from the West are on the road, and the ULM and Texas State games are at home.

They need to learn the SBC more. They are going off preseason hype from last year. Arkansas State is not that great. Troy, Ga Southern, and Lafayette should all be better. No to mention the fact that if we only win 9 games, including a bowl game, I will say that Drink should be fired. We have way too much talent to lose 4-5 games and if we just win 9 games that is 5 losses. We should be calling for heads and pink slips on our FB staff if we are 9-5 or 10-4.

To me our toughest games are South Carolina and Troy. UNC and Georgia Southern look tough on paper and I respect GSU but we have them at home in a revenge game and UNC is down this year. We should win both of those games.

I don't see anyone else but Troy having enough talent to beat us unless we are decimated by injuries and that game being on the road does make it a tough one. It is a revenge game for them as well. So I think that one is a tossup.

85% of our production returns, we have a new HC who is likely to open up the playbook more, and we have more returning All-SBC talent than anyone else so I don't see why anyone would project us to drop this year. A new coach can come in and improve a team or keep it on the same track. I expect us to be listed as RV in the preseason polls and projected to win the SBC by about everyone.

Not agreeing or disagreeing with anything you're saying just wanted to point out that the 9 wins they've predicted is just based on the regular season schedule, not factoring in the possible Sun Belt Championship game or bowl game. So, they're probably saying we'll lose both Carolina games and then one conference game, or perhaps split the Carolina games and drop 2 conference games...I wouldn't be surprised if we lose 2 during the regular season but certainly could run the table. It's going to be a great season for sure...maybe a "special" one.