Sagarin Ratings

[ArmantiWaterSafety]

# of NDSU wins against P5 since 2010 - 5
# of App State wins against P5 since 2010 - 0

Yes, most of our losses were against ranked P5 (which 1 of their wins was against a ranked P5) but let's all get off of our high horses and start winning some games against P5's like our "lesser" competition has done.

Lets look at the P5s we've faced in that time frame vs. NDSU:
NDSU
2010 Kansas - Finished 3-9
2011 Minnesota - Finished 3-9
2012 Colorado State - Finished 4-8 (Not P5)
2013 Kansas State - Finished 8-5
2014 Iowa State - Finished 2-10
2016 #13 Iowa - Finished 8-5 (Did not finish in top 25)


Now let's look at the FBS opponents App has faced:
2010 #4 Florida - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2011 #13 Virginia Tech - Finished 11-3 (App was FCS)(VT ended season ranked #21)
2012 East Carolina - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)(Not P5, which doesn't help)
2013 #25 Georgia - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2014 Michigan - Finished 5-7 (App was transitioning)
2015 #12 Clemson - Finished 14-1 (Lost in final to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2016 #9 Tennessee - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #22)
2016 #25 Miami - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #20)
2017 #15 Georgia - Finished 13-2 (Lost in final to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2017 Wake Forest - Finished 8-5
2018 #10 Penn State- Finished 9-4 (Ended at #17)


Now there are more than 1 game in there we could've/should've won, but for the most part, we have played much, much harder competition than the P5s that NDSU has went up against. ECU (not P5, which makes it worse) & Wake are the clear outliers to an otherwise ridiculous scheduling coincidence of App playing P5 teams at their best. Might count Michigan too, but there was clearly a revenge factor there.

Regardless, we gotta start beating some P5s!!!

I agree with you, hence my sentence about most of our losses coming from ranked P5's, you just put a lot more effort into your post than I did

Still impressive they have a 6 game streak against FBS competition, and a 5 game streak against P5 competition, regardless of whether or not the teams they played were particularly impressive. They are supposed to be two levels below given the current landscape of college football, while we are supposed to be one level below and have a 0 game streak against P5's and to do that with limited scholarships is a feat.

[appmaj]

# of NDSU wins against P5 since 2010 - 5
# of App State wins against P5 since 2010 - 0

Yes, most of our losses were against ranked P5 (which 1 of their wins was against a ranked P5) but let's all get off of our high horses and start winning some games against P5's like our "lesser" competition has done.

Lets look at the P5s we've faced in that time frame vs. NDSU:
NDSU
2010 Kansas - Finished 3-9
2011 Minnesota - Finished 3-9
2012 Colorado State - Finished 4-8 (Not P5)
2013 Kansas State - Finished 8-5
2014 Iowa State - Finished 2-10
2016 #13 Iowa - Finished 8-5 (Did not finish in top 25)


Now let's look at the FBS opponents App has faced:
2010 #4 Florida - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2011 #13 Virginia Tech - Finished 11-3 (App was FCS)(VT ended season ranked #21)
2012 East Carolina - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)(Not P5, which doesn't help)
2013 #25 Georgia - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2014 Michigan - Finished 5-7 (App was transitioning)
2015 #12 Clemson - Finished 14-1 (Lost in final to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2016 #9 Tennessee - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #22)
2016 #25 Miami - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #20)
2017 #15 Georgia - Finished 13-2 (Lost in final to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2017 Wake Forest - Finished 8-5
2018 #10 Penn State- Finished 9-4 (Ended at #17)


Now there are more than 1 game in there we could've/should've won, but for the most part, we have played much, much harder competition than the P5s that NDSU has went up against. ECU (not P5, which makes it worse) & Wake are the clear outliers to an otherwise ridiculous scheduling coincidence of App playing P5 teams at their best. Might count Michigan too, but there was clearly a revenge factor there.

Regardless, we gotta start beating some P5s!!!

Excellent research! Agree 100%. NDSU has gotten a lot of attention that I wish we could have had (Gameday etc.) but, I do think the rating is high for them.

[EastHallApp]

Facts are we haven’t beaten a P5 team in over a decade and NDSU has done it 5 times.

I’m tired of hearing the excuses. Good for NDSU, they deserve the accolades they’ve received and it makes us look petty to argue they shouldn’t be considered. How many of us were elated to get AP votes after the Michigan win??

If we are as good as we think we are, we’ve got 2 VERY winnable P5 games on the schedule this year. And according to these same Sagarin rankings, we should blow one of them out.

Agreed. We've had some impressive efforts in there, but I find the "woulda coulda shoulda" posts to be a little embarrassing. Reminds me of GS fans when they had that string of near-misses against P5s.

[MountaineerChemist10]

I'll give NDSU some credit. They are the best in FCS & kick ass every year. Just look at their formal starting QB from '15...Carson Wentz. Almost won NFL MVP in '17 & would have if it wasn't for ACL tear. However, all of the FBS teams they've played in the past played like pansies whereas teams we play almost make a bowl game and/or national championship every year. So just b/c you beat a "Power 5" doesn't mean you kick ass. You have to beat a GOOD P5 school & consistently win. Look at 2017 Troy...they beat Power 5 #25 LSU and lose to South Alabama the next week. South Alabama??


However, if NDSU could beat a top 15 team like Penn State (which we did until OT last year) then i'll give them support. Until then, NDSU being ranked higher than us is horse poop

[ah59396]

I'll give NDSU some credit. They are the best in FCS & kick ass every year. Just look at their formal starting QB from '15...Carson Wentz. Almost won NFL MVP in '17 & would have if it wasn't for ACL tear. However, all of the FBS teams they've played in the past played like pansies whereas teams we play almost make a bowl game and/or national championship every year. So just b/c you beat a "Power 5" doesn't mean you kick ass. You have to beat a GOOD P5 school & consistently win. Look at 2017 Troy...they beat Power 5 #25 LSU and lose to South Alabama the next week. South Alabama??


However, if NDSU could beat a top 15 team like Penn State (which we did until OT last year) then i'll give them support. Until then, NDSU being ranked higher than us is horse poop

Dude cmon. NDSU beat a 13th ranked Iowa team. An Iowa team that yes, finished 8-5, but later had wins over #2 Michigan and #17 Nebraska. 3 of Iowa’s 5 losses that season were to top 20 teams.

I do not understand this line of thinking. NDSU has accomplished incredible success in the FCS and against P5 teams, that does not diminish what we are doing right now. We can appreciate both for what they are without saying “NDSU is great BUT...”

And we didn’t almost beat Penn State. We lost. Just like we lost at Tennessee and lost at Wake. There are no points for moral victories in college football. No one is the “almost” national champion (except maybe UCF).

[appstatealum]

Most of the time you can be objective when it come to sports, Win or lose, that’s it. But, in these discussions, subjectivity is definitely a requirement. The reality is, a lot of our “almost” wins are as good as NDSUs wins.
Many folks would say that low end P5s are “better” or more relevant than most G5 schools. These low end P5s pull off the occasional win against their ranked conference foes, but typically get manhandled week to week. The reason App gets love nationally for “almost wins” is because the majority of America knows that there is a big difference between being competitive with a high ranked/national championship contender and beating a mid/low tier P5. The product on the field indicates that we would win (possibly with ease) games against other mid/low tier P5s if we played them instead of these perceived “giants of football” that we schedule year to year. Even the talking heads know this, that is why they give us the respect even without the wins.

This year, we have the opportunity to show this. We better put our money where our mouth is.

[Yosef84]

# of NDSU wins against P5 since 2010 - 5
# of App State wins against P5 since 2010 - 0

Yes, most of our losses were against ranked P5 (which 1 of their wins was against a ranked P5) but let's all get off of our high horses and start winning some games against P5's like our "lesser" competition has done.

I really do "get" the frustration with the P5 wins (or lack thereof), especially given the 3 "near misses" we've had but the Sagarin Ratings (and any other power rating) is based on the body of work. The FBS schedule that App plays is tougher than what NDSU faces. That's why it's misleading to combine FBS/FCS this way. The MVC is a good FCS conference but NDSU wouldn't run the table in ANY FBS conference like they've done. I have tons of respect for the Bison's program and I actually like that the Sagarin's incorporate FCS but I'm not convinced it's really accurate.

There's no doubt in my mind that NDSU would be very competitive in the SunBelt, CUSA, or MAC but I don't think they would automatically dominate. I will tip my hat to them but sure as heck won't bow down. Just play the games.

[NewApp]

I'll give NDSU some credit. They are the best in FCS & kick ass every year. Just look at their formal starting QB from '15...Carson Wentz. Almost won NFL MVP in '17 & would have if it wasn't for ACL tear. However, all of the FBS teams they've played in the past played like pansies whereas teams we play almost make a bowl game and/or national championship every year. So just b/c you beat a "Power 5" doesn't mean you kick ass. You have to beat a GOOD P5 school & consistently win. Look at 2017 Troy...they beat Power 5 #25 LSU and lose to South Alabama the next week. South Alabama??


However, if NDSU could beat a top 15 team like Penn State (which we did until OT last year) then i'll give them support. Until then, NDSU being ranked higher than us is horse poop

Makes sense.

[MountaineerChemist10]

I'll give NDSU some credit. They are the best in FCS & kick ass every year. Just look at their formal starting QB from '15...Carson Wentz. Almost won NFL MVP in '17 & would have if it wasn't for ACL tear. However, all of the FBS teams they've played in the past played like pansies whereas teams we play almost make a bowl game and/or national championship every year. So just b/c you beat a "Power 5" doesn't mean you kick ass. You have to beat a GOOD P5 school & consistently win. Look at 2017 Troy...they beat Power 5 #25 LSU and lose to South Alabama the next week. South Alabama??


However, if NDSU could beat a top 15 team like Penn State (which we did until OT last year) then i'll give them support. Until then, NDSU being ranked higher than us is horse poop

Dude cmon. NDSU beat a 13th ranked Iowa team. An Iowa team that yes, finished 8-5, but later had wins over #2 Michigan and #17 Nebraska. 3 of Iowa’s 5 losses that season were to top 20 teams.

I do not understand this line of thinking. NDSU has accomplished incredible success in the FCS and against P5 teams, that does not diminish what we are doing right now. We can appreciate both for what they are without saying “NDSU is great BUT...”

And we didn’t almost beat Penn State. We lost. Just like we lost at Tennessee and lost at Wake. There are no points for moral victories in college football. No one is the “almost” national champion (except maybe UCF).

Yes, they did beat Iowa in '16 & Iowa did beat Michigan & Nebraska. Look at it again though; 3 weeks later NDSU lost to their rival SDSU 19-17 & again in the FCS playoffs. That makes the Iowa win look more like a fluke than a real win. If you can't support your big accomplishment with consecutive wins & a FCS national championship, what's the point?

And are you not getting my point? I'm simply saying NDSU HAS defeated more P5 teams than us, but they were all crap (with the exception of Kansas State in '13 & Iowa State in '16). I'd rather see us take a top #10-15 team into OT, let lady luck decide on the winner than us beat a P5 nobody & get no credit since they sucked ass. Despite being a loss, taking Penn State into OT & come close gave us loads of support on power rankings last year. More than beating a shitty team i'm sure.

[ah59396]

I'll give NDSU some credit. They are the best in FCS & kick ass every year. Just look at their formal starting QB from '15...Carson Wentz. Almost won NFL MVP in '17 & would have if it wasn't for ACL tear. However, all of the FBS teams they've played in the past played like pansies whereas teams we play almost make a bowl game and/or national championship every year. So just b/c you beat a "Power 5" doesn't mean you kick ass. You have to beat a GOOD P5 school & consistently win. Look at 2017 Troy...they beat Power 5 #25 LSU and lose to South Alabama the next week. South Alabama??


However, if NDSU could beat a top 15 team like Penn State (which we did until OT last year) then i'll give them support. Until then, NDSU being ranked higher than us is horse poop

Dude cmon. NDSU beat a 13th ranked Iowa team. An Iowa team that yes, finished 8-5, but later had wins over #2 Michigan and #17 Nebraska. 3 of Iowa’s 5 losses that season were to top 20 teams.

I do not understand this line of thinking. NDSU has accomplished incredible success in the FCS and against P5 teams, that does not diminish what we are doing right now. We can appreciate both for what they are without saying “NDSU is great BUT...”

And we didn’t almost beat Penn State. We lost. Just like we lost at Tennessee and lost at Wake. There are no points for moral victories in college football. No one is the “almost” national champion (except maybe UCF).

Yes, they did beat Iowa in '16 & Iowa did beat Michigan & Nebraska. Look at it again though; 3 weeks later NDSU lost to their rival SDSU 19-17 & again in the FCS playoffs. That makes the Iowa win look more like a fluke than a real win. If you can't support your big accomplishment with consecutive wins & a FCS national championship, what's the point?

And are you not getting my point? I'm simply saying NDSU HAS defeated more P5 teams than us, but they were all crap (with the exception of Kansas State in '13 & Iowa State in '16). I'd rather see us take a top #10-15 team into OT, let lady luck decide on the winner than us beat a P5 nobody & get no credit since they sucked ass. Despite being a loss, taking Penn State into OT & come close gave us loads of support on power rankings last year. More than beating a shitty team i'm sure.

Honestly I’m not getting your point. If you’re arguing that NDSU losing FCS games in the same season they beat a P5 =fluke, then we can chalk up our Michigan win as such, because we lost to Wofford and GA Southern.

And really, NDSU has won the FCS Natty in ‘11, ‘12, ‘13, ‘14, ‘15, ‘17 and ‘18. Trying to use consistency as an argument against them just doesn’t work for me.

If you’re simply unwilling to give NDSU the credit they deserve, that’s your choice. This entire discussion was generated because someone doesn’t like the idea of them even being IN the Sagarin rankings. I bet they wouldn’t care if NDSU was ranked behind us.

For me, it’s petty and requires words like “except”, “despite”, “close” to try to diminish what they’ve accomplished.

Win the games in front of us and this is a moot point. We will easily end well ahead of the Bison. Manage a couple “almost wins” and we likely end the season ranked behind them, where we deserve to be.


By the way, what exactly is a “real win”? Can you give me some examples of fake wins?

[APPdiesel]

Who wants to talk Sagarin?

[Mjohn1988]

I'll give NDSU some credit. They are the best in FCS & kick ass every year. Just look at their formal starting QB from '15...Carson Wentz. Almost won NFL MVP in '17 & would have if it wasn't for ACL tear. However, all of the FBS teams they've played in the past played like pansies whereas teams we play almost make a bowl game and/or national championship every year. So just b/c you beat a "Power 5" doesn't mean you kick ass. You have to beat a GOOD P5 school & consistently win. Look at 2017 Troy...they beat Power 5 #25 LSU and lose to South Alabama the next week. South Alabama??


However, if NDSU could beat a top 15 team like Penn State (which we did until OT last year) then i'll give them support. Until then, NDSU being ranked higher than us is horse poop

Dude cmon. NDSU beat a 13th ranked Iowa team. An Iowa team that yes, finished 8-5, but later had wins over #2 Michigan and #17 Nebraska. 3 of Iowa’s 5 losses that season were to top 20 teams.

I do not understand this line of thinking. NDSU has accomplished incredible success in the FCS and against P5 teams, that does not diminish what we are doing right now. We can appreciate both for what they are without saying “NDSU is great BUT...”

And we didn’t almost beat Penn State. We lost. Just like we lost at Tennessee and lost at Wake. There are no points for moral victories in college football. No one is the “almost” national champion (except maybe UCF).

Yes, they did beat Iowa in '16 & Iowa did beat Michigan & Nebraska. Look at it again though; 3 weeks later NDSU lost to their rival SDSU 19-17 & again in the FCS playoffs. That makes the Iowa win look more like a fluke than a real win. If you can't support your big accomplishment with consecutive wins & a FCS national championship, what's the point?

And are you not getting my point? I'm simply saying NDSU HAS defeated more P5 teams than us, but they were all crap (with the exception of Kansas State in '13 & Iowa State in '16). I'd rather see us take a top #10-15 team into OT, let lady luck decide on the winner than us beat a P5 nobody & get no credit since they sucked ass. Despite being a loss, taking Penn State into OT & come close gave us loads of support on power rankings last year. More than beating a shitty team i'm sure.

Honestly I’m not getting your point. If you’re arguing that NDSU losing FCS games in the same season they beat a P5 =fluke, then we can chalk up our Michigan win as such, because we lost to Wofford and GA Southern.

And really, NDSU has won the FCS Natty in ‘11, ‘12, ‘13, ‘14, ‘15, ‘17 and ‘18. Trying to use consistency as an argument against them just doesn’t work for me.

If you’re simply unwilling to give NDSU the credit they deserve, that’s your choice. This entire discussion was generated because someone doesn’t like the idea of them even being IN the Sagarin rankings. I bet they wouldn’t care if NDSU was ranked behind us.

For me, it’s petty and requires words like “except”, “despite”, “close” to try to diminish what they’ve accomplished.

Win the games in front of us and this is a moot point. We will easily end well ahead of the Bison. Manage a couple “almost wins” and we likely end the season ranked behind them, where we deserve to be.


By the way, what exactly is a “real win”? Can you give me some examples of fake wins?

It’s funny how we treat folks in the FCS the same way now that we hated to be treated when we were in the FCS. After Michigan most of the sports talk folks immediately started diminishing our win by saying how bad Michigan played. And then the stories about how hard Michigans players partied the night before started coming out. We all bristled at the lack of respect our guys received. NDSU is a top notch program.

[appgrad95&97]

Is there anyone out there that wants to schedule NDSU? My guess is no. They have earned the respect they get nationally (Gameday).

[AppStFan1]

I have a problem being behind NDSU. Our program has progressed miles ahead of being FCS. APPs 2019 version has way more depth than any of our FCS championship teams. NDSU is a playing in a shallow pool.

Agree with another poster. They have beaten P5 teams, something we have yet to do. We lost 3 P5 games we should have won while NDSU is never suppose to beat a P5 team and they do so. They could fall off this year but until they lose they will continue to warrant the rating. Honestly, until we beat UNC I would keep NDSU ahead of us.

[appstate77]

One way to settle this. Bring 'em to The Rock and see what they got.

[ah59396]

One way to settle this. Bring 'em to The Rock and see what they got.

I would love that. They scare the hell out of me and would be arguably the only FCS team you could play that would bolster your strength of schedule.

I also think it’d get some decent attention nationally. The two schools that have dominated FCS in this century. Student vs Teacher.

Could also put to bed the “NDSU is better than App” nonsense. That is unless they beat us!

[AppStFan1]

One way to settle this. Bring 'em to The Rock and see what they got.

I would love that. They scare the hell out of me and would be arguably the only FCS team you could play that would bolster your strength of schedule.

I also think it’d get some decent attention nationally. The two schools that have dominated FCS in this century. Student vs Teacher.

Could also put to bed the “NDSU is better than App” nonsense. That is unless they beat us!

My fan side agrees but if I'm AD and HC there is no way I would agree to play them right now. We don't benefit from this in any way.

[EastHallApp]

One way to settle this. Bring 'em to The Rock and see what they got.

I would love that. They scare the hell out of me and would be arguably the only FCS team you could play that would bolster your strength of schedule.

I also think it’d get some decent attention nationally. The two schools that have dominated FCS in this century. Student vs Teacher.

Could also put to bed the “NDSU is better than App” nonsense. That is unless they beat us!

My fan side agrees but if I'm AD and HC there is no way I would agree to play them right now. We don't benefit from this in any way.

Agree. Why people always talk about wanting to play a good FCS team is beyond me. If you think we’d gain any respect for beating them, you’re kidding yourself. We’d gain nothing by winning and they’d be a legitimate risk to beat us.

[AppinVA]

One way to settle this. Bring 'em to The Rock and see what they got.

I would love that. They scare the hell out of me and would be arguably the only FCS team you could play that would bolster your strength of schedule.

I also think it’d get some decent attention nationally. The two schools that have dominated FCS in this century. Student vs Teacher.

Could also put to bed the “NDSU is better than App” nonsense. That is unless they beat us!

My fan side agrees but if I'm AD and HC there is no way I would agree to play them right now. We don't benefit from this in any way.

Agree. Why people always talk about wanting to play a good FCS team is beyond me. If you think we’d gain any respect for beating them, you’re kidding yourself. We’d gain nothing by winning and they’d be a legitimate risk to beat us.

This. If we play an FCS, I want to play one so bad that they have to share helmets when the offense comes on the field for the defense. We proved ourselves against FCS for over 30 years. That’s more than enough for me.

[AppStFan1]

One way to settle this. Bring 'em to The Rock and see what they got.

I would love that. They scare the hell out of me and would be arguably the only FCS team you could play that would bolster your strength of schedule.

I also think it’d get some decent attention nationally. The two schools that have dominated FCS in this century. Student vs Teacher.

Could also put to bed the “NDSU is better than App” nonsense. That is unless they beat us!

My fan side agrees but if I'm AD and HC there is no way I would agree to play them right now. We don't benefit from this in any way.

Agree. Why people always talk about wanting to play a good FCS team is beyond me. If you think we’d gain any respect for beating them, you’re kidding yourself. We’d gain nothing by winning and they’d be a legitimate risk to beat us.

There are only about 20 FBS teams that I would say go ahead and play them. They are a threat to beat just about anyone else or at least play within 14 points and that just does not look good on paper.