Opening Vegas line for Troy

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wncapp78
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Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by wncapp78 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:02 pm

I don’t gamble. I just like seeing “CFB PLAYOFF TOP 25”

CFB Playoff Top 25

Fri., Nov. 29
No. 17 Iowa (-4) at Nebraska
No. 19 Cincinnati at No. 18 Memphis (-9)
No. 20 Boise State (-13) at Colorado State
No. 24 Appalachian State (-10.5) at Troy



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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by ArmantiWaterSafety » Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:06 am

Hoping we can absolutely crush that opening line, it's supposed to be nice weather and we need a good win to finish out the season. I'm predicting a 3 TD win.



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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by Rick83 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:30 am

I'd almost rather beat Troy by maybe 2 scores and UL crush ULM by 6+ scores like they did against Troy. The Cajuns would roll into Boone extremely confident...



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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by yosef69 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:04 am

FWIW, this line has already moved to -13, which is still believe is too low. Dont usually bet on App but I might this time. That line is extremely fishy.



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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:15 am

Troy has shown that they can score a good bit but they have given up a ton of points in games. We just need 4 stops and win 49-21. That would be a pretty decent showing. If we don't have another brain fart on defense we should shut them down pretty good. Just have to hope the focus is there. Who knows what the crowd will be like. Might be another crowd like an open practice.



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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by wncapp78 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:26 am

No students. Black Friday. Auburn v Alabama next day in Auburn
Opening line on the actual crowd in the stadium 8000



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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by Black Saturday » Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:28 am

The college football playoffs "committee" has put pressure on teams to be rewarded for style wins. I think it has had a trickle down effect for all others jockeying for a rank as well. Vegas oddsmakers know more about who should be positioned where.

APP should beat Troy. What bothers me is whether Troy folded against UL, because they lost by a shocking margin 48 points and were about a 2 TD underdog, now Vegas has APP less than a 2 TD favorite over Troy. Does Vegas view UL the better team currently? I'd say so, but they say the transitive property doesn't apply to football.

UL will come into the championship game wanting to bury APP. Earlier in the season when we played I thought we were the better team. Based on the last few games, maybe UL is trending better, playing hungrier, disrespected, or peaking. APP is the more talented team, but is playing uninspired. We all hope the team just needs to know a challenge awaits in the title game.

Early guess is APP is a 6 point favorite at home in the SBC Championship.


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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by Black Saturday » Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:28 am

wncapp78 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:26 am
No students. Black Friday. Auburn v Alabama next day in Auburn
Opening line on the actual crowd in the stadium 8000
I'll take the under.


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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by yosef69 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:40 am

Black Saturday wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:28 am
The college football playoffs "committee" has put pressure on teams to be rewarded for style wins. I think it has had a trickle down effect for all others jockeying for a rank as well. Vegas oddsmakers know more about who should be positioned where.

APP should beat Troy. What bothers me is whether Troy folded against UL, because they lost by a shocking margin 48 points and were about a 2 TD underdog, now Vegas has APP less than a 2 TD favorite over Troy. Does Vegas view UL the better team currently? I'd say so, but they say the transitive property doesn't apply to football.

UL will come into the championship game wanting to bury APP. Earlier in the season when we played I thought we were the better team. Based on the last few games, maybe UL is trending better, playing hungrier, disrespected, or peaking. APP is the more talented team, but is playing uninspired. We all hope the team just needs to know a challenge awaits in the title game.

Early guess is APP is a 6 point favorite at home in the SBC Championship.
Dont forget cajuns were at home for their game with troy. Depending on the handicapper, some would consider that a 6 point swing.



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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by Yosef84 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:42 pm

I don't think UL would consistently beat Troy that badly although they are clearly a better team. Sometimes a game just blows up and in this case, that obviously happened. Troy's D is depleted and overmatched. Looks to me like Troy couldn't sustain a drive and couldn't stop the balanced attack of UL. Barker had an absolutely horrendous game and the Troy RB Stable is depleted from injuries. All the match ups favored UL.

When App and UL played the first time, the numbers actually favored UL. We hadn't quite started "believing" in our D yet, and that game helped us get there. UL is dangerous and anyone who isn't a little nervous is probably not paying attention but I think we have shown that we show up for big games (ignoring GS) so I think we'll be OK. I do expect the scoring to be higher this time but not a shoot out.



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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by Black Saturday » Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:43 pm

APP opened up a 2 point favorite at UL and quickly got swung to +2 /+2.5 range when the line closed. Things progress, does that same "line" of thinking put APP -6 range with saying APP would have been -5 on a neutral field?


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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:44 pm

yosef69 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:04 am
FWIW, this line has already moved to -13, which is still believe is too low. Dont usually bet on App but I might this time. That line is extremely fishy.
Here are a few thoughts I have seeing the line because I'm thinking it is fishy just like you are.

Did they drop it a good bit because Sutton is out? Do they just believe ULL is the best team now and think we are going to get steamrolled by them next week? Do they know something regarding injuries or something that is not public? Have they noticed we are just not very good during midweek games and thus think this game will be really close?

I feel like either we are going to roll these guys by 25-30 points or they are going to be dead on here and we win by 7-10 range. With all the Troy injuries you would think Vegas has more belief in us so I am indeed shocked at this.

I was expecting to see a 21 point line and just -10.5 now up to -13 shows that those who gamble must have really felt it was going to be around 20. It will be interesting to see if the line keeps moving and gets up to the 15 or 16 range.



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Re: Opening Vegas line for Troy

Unread post by Black Saturday » Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:54 pm

Another thought could be these G5 lines may not be as "sharp" as the marquee matchups or P5s in general. I've heard some Vegas pickers say they can make do better on the lower tier conferences because of this reason. Again I don't wager, but knowing Troy has injuries and they got walloped by UL, I'd take APP to cover. And they've built palaces on my thinking too, lol


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