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ESPN Bowl Predictions

MountainMan2020
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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by MountainMan2020 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:24 am

bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:33 pm
No. 21 Appalachian State
App State will need help making a case for the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid -- for starters, Boise State and SMU probably need to lose -- but the Mountaineers let their play talk for them today. Quarterback Zac Thomas and the devastating App offense played Name Your Score on poor ULM (it settled on 52), and Eliah Drinkwitz's squad should keep rolling until its Nov. 9 trip to South Carolina. -- Bill Connelly
Fairly certain this was written before Boise’s loss to BYU (which ended very late). A few of the articles to summarize CFB results for the day were posted before that game ended.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by Rick83 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:25 am

As far as the CFP committee goes, my understanding is that they are only supposed to consider the current season's play, correct? So, if that's the case AP voters may give credence to Boise St's past performance but the committee is not supposed to.
Although, I suppose it's like telling a jury to disregard inadmissible testimony that they've actually heard.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by General Moore » Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:37 am

MountainMan2020 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:24 am
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:33 pm
No. 21 Appalachian State
App State will need help making a case for the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid -- for starters, Boise State and SMU probably need to lose -- but the Mountaineers let their play talk for them today. Quarterback Zac Thomas and the devastating App offense played Name Your Score on poor ULM (it settled on 52), and Eliah Drinkwitz's squad should keep rolling until its Nov. 9 trip to South Carolina. -- Bill Connelly
Fairly certain this was written before Boise’s loss to BYU (which ended very late). A few of the articles to summarize CFB results for the day were posted before that game ended.
We weren't ranked 21 till 2PM Sunday.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by EastHallApp » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:05 am

We're to the point now that I'm starting to extend my scoreboard watching to P5 opponents for us and other NY6 contenders.

Obviously we want both Carolinas to win as many as possible (just hold your noses, ABC fans).

We might also want to root against Florida St. (only P5 opponent for Boise), UCLA (only P5 win for Cincy AND San Diego St.), TCU (only P5 opponent for SMU) and Ole Miss (only P5 opponent for Memphis).

Wouldn't hurt for ULL to win the rest of their regular season games either.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by EastHallApp » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:07 am

General Moore wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:37 am
MountainMan2020 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:24 am
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:33 pm
No. 21 Appalachian State
App State will need help making a case for the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid -- for starters, Boise State and SMU probably need to lose -- but the Mountaineers let their play talk for them today. Quarterback Zac Thomas and the devastating App offense played Name Your Score on poor ULM (it settled on 52), and Eliah Drinkwitz's squad should keep rolling until its Nov. 9 trip to South Carolina. -- Bill Connelly
Fairly certain this was written before Boise’s loss to BYU (which ended very late). A few of the articles to summarize CFB results for the day were posted before that game ended.
We weren't ranked 21 till 2PM Sunday.
They don't wait until the rankings come out to write all the team blurbs. They know who basically all the top 25 will be; they just write the summary for each team and then slot them in the appropriate order once the poll comes out.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:17 am

EastHallApp wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:07 am
General Moore wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:37 am
MountainMan2020 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:24 am
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:33 pm
No. 21 Appalachian State
App State will need help making a case for the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid -- for starters, Boise State and SMU probably need to lose -- but the Mountaineers let their play talk for them today. Quarterback Zac Thomas and the devastating App offense played Name Your Score on poor ULM (it settled on 52), and Eliah Drinkwitz's squad should keep rolling until its Nov. 9 trip to South Carolina. -- Bill Connelly
Fairly certain this was written before Boise’s loss to BYU (which ended very late). A few of the articles to summarize CFB results for the day were posted before that game ended.
We weren't ranked 21 till 2PM Sunday.
They don't wait until the rankings come out to write all the team blurbs. They know who basically all the top 25 will be; they just write the summary for each team and then slot them in the appropriate order once the poll comes out.
I guess if we want to knit pick it further the write up acknowledges that we are 21 so it was written before the late games and they just “saved” it. Really meaningless. Is there any provision that could allow an undefeated App team into a more marquee bowl game if we don’t get the NY6?

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by EastHallApp » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:20 am

Rick83 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:25 am
As far as the CFP committee goes, my understanding is that they are only supposed to consider the current season's play, correct? So, if that's the case AP voters may give credence to Boise St's past performance but the committee is not supposed to.
Although, I suppose it's like telling a jury to disregard inadmissible testimony that they've actually heard.
Right, and they're not *supposed* to consider which teams they think will sell more tickets and get better TV ratings, but...

Beyond financial motivations, I think the committee being made up of a bunch of P5 ADs and retired coaches means they rely too much on the "eye test" - which, spoiler alert, to that group means the big-name teams with the most NFL prospects are always the best.

Of the 13 selection committees, exactly ONE is affiliated with a G5 school (A-State's AD - maybe that could help us a bit?). There are a couple who have nothing to do at all with FBS football, and the rest are all affiliated with P5s. And mostly big-name, football factory P5s at that:

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/spor ... ittee.aspx

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by EastHallApp » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:22 am

bigdaddyg wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:17 am
EastHallApp wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:07 am
General Moore wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:37 am
MountainMan2020 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:24 am
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:33 pm
No. 21 Appalachian State
App State will need help making a case for the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid -- for starters, Boise State and SMU probably need to lose -- but the Mountaineers let their play talk for them today. Quarterback Zac Thomas and the devastating App offense played Name Your Score on poor ULM (it settled on 52), and Eliah Drinkwitz's squad should keep rolling until its Nov. 9 trip to South Carolina. -- Bill Connelly
Fairly certain this was written before Boise’s loss to BYU (which ended very late). A few of the articles to summarize CFB results for the day were posted before that game ended.
We weren't ranked 21 till 2PM Sunday.
They don't wait until the rankings come out to write all the team blurbs. They know who basically all the top 25 will be; they just write the summary for each team and then slot them in the appropriate order once the poll comes out.
I guess if we want to knit pick it further the write up acknowledges that we are 21 so it was written before the late games and they just “saved” it. Really meaningless. Is there any provision that could allow an undefeated App team into a more marquee bowl game if we don’t get the NY6?
Nothing official, but there were reports that ESPN was considering something like that for Western Michigan in the event they got passed over for Navy.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by AppSt94 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:27 am

EastHallApp wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:20 am
Rick83 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:25 am
As far as the CFP committee goes, my understanding is that they are only supposed to consider the current season's play, correct? So, if that's the case AP voters may give credence to Boise St's past performance but the committee is not supposed to.
Although, I suppose it's like telling a jury to disregard inadmissible testimony that they've actually heard.
Right, and they're not *supposed* to consider which teams they think will sell more tickets and get better TV ratings, but...

Beyond financial motivations, I think the committee being made up of a bunch of P5 ADs and retired coaches means they rely too much on the "eye test" - which, spoiler alert, to that group means the big-name teams with the most NFL prospects are always the best.

Of the 13 selection committees, exactly ONE is affiliated with a G5 school (A-State's AD - maybe that could help us a bit?). There are a couple who have nothing to do at all with FBS football, and the rest are all affiliated with P5s. And mostly big-name, football factory P5s at that:

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/spor ... ittee.aspx
I actually disagree with you from a perspective standpoint. The football guys are going to look at thing more in depth than the non affiliated individuals. They have to pick one, so they will look at the teams in contention objectively. Mojiher will help with convincing of the others.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by EastHallApp » Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:01 am

AppSt94 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:27 am
EastHallApp wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:20 am
Rick83 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:25 am
As far as the CFP committee goes, my understanding is that they are only supposed to consider the current season's play, correct? So, if that's the case AP voters may give credence to Boise St's past performance but the committee is not supposed to.
Although, I suppose it's like telling a jury to disregard inadmissible testimony that they've actually heard.
Right, and they're not *supposed* to consider which teams they think will sell more tickets and get better TV ratings, but...

Beyond financial motivations, I think the committee being made up of a bunch of P5 ADs and retired coaches means they rely too much on the "eye test" - which, spoiler alert, to that group means the big-name teams with the most NFL prospects are always the best.

Of the 13 selection committees, exactly ONE is affiliated with a G5 school (A-State's AD - maybe that could help us a bit?). There are a couple who have nothing to do at all with FBS football, and the rest are all affiliated with P5s. And mostly big-name, football factory P5s at that:

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/spor ... ittee.aspx
I actually disagree with you from a perspective standpoint. The football guys are going to look at thing more in depth than the non affiliated individuals. They have to pick one, so they will look at the teams in contention objectively. Mojiher will help with convincing of the others.
I’m just going by what they’ve said in the past. I mean you see “football guys” on TV studio shows every week; they may know the game better than most, but they’re no better than anyone else at predicting how teams will match up on the field.

And these football people - all being retired and in their 60s and 70s, and all from bigger programs - are disproportionately “old school,” which I think feeds into a brand-name bias in some cases.

I wish they included:

- More G5 representation
- At least one person from an analytics background.
- Some younger members (say, former players in their 20s, 30s or 40s).
- More “neutral” members.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:06 am

TomA415 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:50 pm
AppStFan1 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:57 pm
appdaze wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:42 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:33 pm
No. 21 Appalachian State
App State will need help making a case for the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid -- for starters, Boise State and SMU probably need to lose -- but the Mountaineers let their play talk for them today. Quarterback Zac Thomas and the devastating App offense played Name Your Score on poor ULM (it settled on 52), and Eliah Drinkwitz's squad should keep rolling until its Nov. 9 trip to South Carolina. -- Bill Connelly
It will be a cold day in hell before they let a sunbelt team into the NY6.
It is not if they let us in. If the following happens then App State WILL BE in a NY6.

1. We win out. That is most important. We can't lose a game. Must be 13-0. 12-1 and we will not be.
2. SDSU and Boise State from MWC lose one more each.
3. SMU loses one more in the regular season or loses in the AAC title game.
4. Cincinnati loses one more.

We will then be the highest ranked G5 team in the CFP for sure and it will be an automatic invite. We need a lot of help and can't worry about that now though. We just need to focus on South Alabama, Georgia Southern, South Carolina, Texas State, Georgia State, and Troy for now. We still have a long way to go before 2-4 even matter.
I agree with your list except for number 2. The way it stands now, Cincy and SMU need to lose at some point.

As far as number 2 goes, if both SDSU and App win out, I think we'd get in pretty easily over them. Their only P5 game was one against a pretty poor UCLA team albeit they did win.

Boise is the interesting one though. Unfortunately I think if they win out and so do we they would probably end up getting the NY6 even with the loss last night. Pollsters love Boise State and I don't see the CFP being any different.
The only reason I think we could still use a loss by SDSU to feel safe is because they would be 12-1 with a win over Boise State and their only loss was a close one to Utah State. Like you said, they love Boise State (and they should based on history) and with SDSU not losing since what September and dominating the MWC since then would make them a ranked team for sure.

Now, if we can average say 35 points per win and beat South Carolina we may be able to get the nod with just 1 loss by SMU. I still like for the rest to happen just so it won't be close.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:07 am

General Moore wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:37 am
MountainMan2020 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:24 am
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:33 pm
No. 21 Appalachian State
App State will need help making a case for the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid -- for starters, Boise State and SMU probably need to lose -- but the Mountaineers let their play talk for them today. Quarterback Zac Thomas and the devastating App offense played Name Your Score on poor ULM (it settled on 52), and Eliah Drinkwitz's squad should keep rolling until its Nov. 9 trip to South Carolina. -- Bill Connelly
Fairly certain this was written before Boise’s loss to BYU (which ended very late). A few of the articles to summarize CFB results for the day were posted before that game ended.
We weren't ranked 21 till 2PM Sunday.
There are a few websites who do a pretty good job of projecting the polls so they may have used what they thought the rating would be. They usually have 4-5 teams say one spot off and may be wrong on a team entering that ends up 26 or so but they do a fairly good job overall.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by biggie » Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:40 am

Looks like it has been updated, or it is a different one from ESPN.
Now has us in NO Bowl.
ULL in Mobile or Camellia.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... rojections

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by WVAPPeer » Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:16 am

biggie wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:40 am
Looks like it has been updated, or it is a different one from ESPN.
Now has us in NO Bowl.
ULL in Mobile or Camellia.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... rojections
Someone probably sent them a pretty pointed response to check out the SB rules about the NO Bowl
"Montani Semper Liberi"

The Dude Abides!!!

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by NeersBy90 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:47 pm

AppStFan1 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:06 am
TomA415 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:50 pm
AppStFan1 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:57 pm
appdaze wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:42 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:33 pm
No. 21 Appalachian State
App State will need help making a case for the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid -- for starters, Boise State and SMU probably need to lose -- but the Mountaineers let their play talk for them today. Quarterback Zac Thomas and the devastating App offense played Name Your Score on poor ULM (it settled on 52), and Eliah Drinkwitz's squad should keep rolling until its Nov. 9 trip to South Carolina. -- Bill Connelly
It will be a cold day in hell before they let a sunbelt team into the NY6.
It is not if they let us in. If the following happens then App State WILL BE in a NY6.

1. We win out. That is most important. We can't lose a game. Must be 13-0. 12-1 and we will not be.
2. SDSU and Boise State from MWC lose one more each.
3. SMU loses one more in the regular season or loses in the AAC title game.
4. Cincinnati loses one more.

We will then be the highest ranked G5 team in the CFP for sure and it will be an automatic invite. We need a lot of help and can't worry about that now though. We just need to focus on South Alabama, Georgia Southern, South Carolina, Texas State, Georgia State, and Troy for now. We still have a long way to go before 2-4 even matter.
I agree with your list except for number 2. The way it stands now, Cincy and SMU need to lose at some point.

As far as number 2 goes, if both SDSU and App win out, I think we'd get in pretty easily over them. Their only P5 game was one against a pretty poor UCLA team albeit they did win.

Boise is the interesting one though. Unfortunately I think if they win out and so do we they would probably end up getting the NY6 even with the loss last night. Pollsters love Boise State and I don't see the CFP being any different.
The only reason I think we could still use a loss by SDSU to feel safe is because they would be 12-1 with a win over Boise State and their only loss was a close one to Utah State. Like you said, they love Boise State (and they should based on history) and with SDSU not losing since what September and dominating the MWC since then would make them a ranked team for sure.

Now, if we can average say 35 points per win and beat South Carolina we may be able to get the nod with just 1 loss by SMU. I still like for the rest to happen just so it won't be close.
I think if we look convincing and win out, we're in with SMU losing 1 game. They still have a tough slate ahead too. They have to go to Memphis and Navy. I think if we beat USC, we will leap frog 1 loss Cincinnati.

The recency bias for a 1 loss Boise would go out the window because their best win would be FSU, Air Force or Utah State?... I think we have enough brand recognition to beat out a 1 loss SDST even if they beat Boise because of that number next to our name that they don't have. Our two P5 road wins would easily Trump them beating Boise.

Bottom line is (and its been mentioned several times already) is that none of this matters unless we win out. Lets keep going 1-0. I love our team's (and fan's for that matter) mindset right now, aware of what could be, focused on what's at hand!

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by NeersBy90 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:48 pm

WVAPPeer wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:24 pm
I don't give much credence to this stuff - especially with half a season to play but my question is do these bozo predictors think Ga State and/or ULL are going to win the SB - OR are they too lazy to find out who actually goes to the New Orleans Bowl?

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Dec. 21, 9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana
For what its worth, the bowl predictions thread I looked at today had been adjusted and had us in New Orleans.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by appgrad95&97 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:08 pm

ESPN owns about half the bowls. ESPN televises over 80% of the bowls. ESPN runs college football. ESPN is part of Disney. ESPN is all about money. Fanbases, eyeballs, equal money. Appalachian State University will not bring eyeballs to a NY6 Bowl game. ESPN is the CFP Committee. Do the math.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by ericsaid » Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:09 pm

bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:34 pm
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Dec. 21, 9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Louisiana Tech

Just read this on ESPN. Probably not horrible opponents if we don’t get the biggie
Louisiana Tech hasn't played anyone but Texas. Their schedule is absolute garbage and going 6-1 would likely be expected of the Top 4 or 5 in the Sun Belt right now....it's baddddd.

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by ericsaid » Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:13 pm

NeersBy90 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:47 pm
AppStFan1 wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:06 am
TomA415 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:50 pm
AppStFan1 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:57 pm
appdaze wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:42 pm


It will be a cold day in hell before they let a sunbelt team into the NY6.
It is not if they let us in. If the following happens then App State WILL BE in a NY6.

1. We win out. That is most important. We can't lose a game. Must be 13-0. 12-1 and we will not be.
2. SDSU and Boise State from MWC lose one more each.
3. SMU loses one more in the regular season or loses in the AAC title game.
4. Cincinnati loses one more.

We will then be the highest ranked G5 team in the CFP for sure and it will be an automatic invite. We need a lot of help and can't worry about that now though. We just need to focus on South Alabama, Georgia Southern, South Carolina, Texas State, Georgia State, and Troy for now. We still have a long way to go before 2-4 even matter.
I agree with your list except for number 2. The way it stands now, Cincy and SMU need to lose at some point.

As far as number 2 goes, if both SDSU and App win out, I think we'd get in pretty easily over them. Their only P5 game was one against a pretty poor UCLA team albeit they did win.

Boise is the interesting one though. Unfortunately I think if they win out and so do we they would probably end up getting the NY6 even with the loss last night. Pollsters love Boise State and I don't see the CFP being any different.
The only reason I think we could still use a loss by SDSU to feel safe is because they would be 12-1 with a win over Boise State and their only loss was a close one to Utah State. Like you said, they love Boise State (and they should based on history) and with SDSU not losing since what September and dominating the MWC since then would make them a ranked team for sure.

Now, if we can average say 35 points per win and beat South Carolina we may be able to get the nod with just 1 loss by SMU. I still like for the rest to happen just so it won't be close.
I think if we look convincing and win out, we're in with SMU losing 1 game. They still have a tough slate ahead too. They have to go to Memphis and Navy. I think if we beat USC, we will leap frog 1 loss Cincinnati.

The recency bias for a 1 loss Boise would go out the window because their best win would be FSU, Air Force or Utah State?... I think we have enough brand recognition to beat out a 1 loss SDST even if they beat Boise because of that number next to our name that they don't have. Our two P5 road wins would easily Trump them beating Boise.

Bottom line is (and its been mentioned several times already) is that none of this matters unless we win out. Lets keep going 1-0. I love our team's (and fan's for that matter) mindset right now, aware of what could be, focused on what's at hand!
The AAC is good, if not slightly overrated. Memphis is a one loss team with that loss coming to a transitioning Temple team. Transitive property in football not working aside, I was not impressed by their game versus ULM. If CFP Committee look at ratings and statistics, I think they would notice App's schedule isn't as bad as it looks if you're just glossing over team names.

An interesting development would be what would happen if App and SMU were to finish 13-0? It's unlikely to happen, but surely the Sun Belt would market App to a larger bowl than New Orleans?

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Re: ESPN Bowl Predictions

Unread post by EastHallApp » Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:14 pm

ericsaid wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:09 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:34 pm
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Dec. 21, 9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Louisiana Tech

Just read this on ESPN. Probably not horrible opponents if we don’t get the biggie
Louisiana Tech hasn't played anyone but Texas. Their schedule is absolute garbage and going 6-1 would likely be expected of the Top 4 or 5 in the Sun Belt right now....it's baddddd.
Agreed on their schedule, however at least it would make for livelier environment than the handful of fans MTSU brought to NOLA.

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