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Obviously Dallas is everyone's preference but App will need a lot of help to see that come to fruition. At this point, give me NO which means App will be SB champs 4 years running and most likely means hosting the championship 2 years in a row and a 7th home game at KBS. Also may get to see App match-up against LaTech, who seem to be the front runners in CUSA.BeauFoster wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:51 pmDallas, New Orleans, or bust!
I do believe that there could be a confluence of events that could eventually lead to a Belt team playing in a bowl that is not an official tie in. I haven't looked hard enough at this season's records to say if it will happen this year, but if there were 6 teams in the Belt with 6+ wins and ESPN came to one of them (and the conference) and said "we want team X to play in the Y bowl game, and we'll give you $20k to do it", then all parties would magically come to an agreement.
And would likely head to NOLA ranked themselves if they win out before then.moonshine wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:59 pmObviously Dallas is everyone's preference but App will need a lot of help to see that come to fruition. At this point, give me NO which means App will be SB champs 4 years running and most likely means hosting the championship 2 years in a row and a 7th home game at KBS. Also may get to see App match-up against LaTech, who seem to be the front runners in CUSA.BeauFoster wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:51 pmDallas, New Orleans, or bust!
I do believe that there could be a confluence of events that could eventually lead to a Belt team playing in a bowl that is not an official tie in. I haven't looked hard enough at this season's records to say if it will happen this year, but if there were 6 teams in the Belt with 6+ wins and ESPN came to one of them (and the conference) and said "we want team X to play in the Y bowl game, and we'll give you $20k to do it", then all parties would magically come to an agreement.
There's 3 already (ULL, App, GaState), with a guarantee of one more (winner of the GaSo-Ark St game). Ark St will probably get to 7 wins with South Alabama, CCU and GaSo remaining. GaSo has a tougher row to hoe, but should win 1 of their remaining 3 - which gets us to 5 teams at 6 wins.
This has happened in other leagues many times, and what always happens is this: The sixth team (i.e, the one who gets passed over by the five primary tie-in bowls) either gets left out or backfills a spot in a bottom-tier bowl where the primary tie-ins didn't have enough eligible teams.BeauFoster wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:07 pmThere's 3 already (ULL, App, GaState), with a guarantee of one more (winner of the GaSo-Ark St game). Ark St will probably get to 7 wins with South Alabama, CCU and GaSo remaining. GaSo has a tougher row to hoe, but should win 1 of their remaining 3 - which gets us to 5 teams at 6 wins.
Trying to find a 6th gets more interesting:
Troy (4-5) TxSt, ULL, App
CCU (4-5) Ark St, ULM, Tx St
ULM (4-5) GaSo, CCU, ULL
I could possibly see CCU coming out of that with 6, but I'd honestly be surprised if any of them make it. Point being, there will be a point in some year that the Belt has 6 teams with 6 wins. Depending on how other factors play out, it's possible that the conference, ESPN, and one of the schools strike a deal to go elsewhere.
I'd say you're correct in that assessment 99.99% of the time, and I'm not holding my breath for App to be invited to a "better" bowl, but as Eric says (said), if all the stars aligned perfectly, there could be a minute possibility that ESPN wants to put a ranked Belt team in a higher tier bowl for optics sake.EastHallApp wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:17 pmThis has happened in other leagues many times, and what always happens is this: The sixth team (i.e, the one who gets passed over by the five primary tie-in bowls) either gets left out or backfills a spot in a bottom-tier bowl where the primary tie-ins didn't have enough eligible teams.BeauFoster wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:07 pmThere's 3 already (ULL, App, GaState), with a guarantee of one more (winner of the GaSo-Ark St game). Ark St will probably get to 7 wins with South Alabama, CCU and GaSo remaining. GaSo has a tougher row to hoe, but should win 1 of their remaining 3 - which gets us to 5 teams at 6 wins.
Trying to find a 6th gets more interesting:
Troy (4-5) TxSt, ULL, App
CCU (4-5) Ark St, ULM, Tx St
ULM (4-5) GaSo, CCU, ULL
I could possibly see CCU coming out of that with 6, but I'd honestly be surprised if any of them make it. Point being, there will be a point in some year that the Belt has 6 teams with 6 wins. Depending on how other factors play out, it's possible that the conference, ESPN, and one of the schools strike a deal to go elsewhere.
IOW, it's not the best team that goes to a non-contracted bowl when that happens; it's the worst.
ESPN would love that Satt vs. his old team story line.
I agree. I think there is a decent chance all the American teams have two or more losses. My guess is that if another G5 wins out to finish with one loss, the best bet is Boise. A two loss AAC champ would probably still be in the mix and perhaps even deserve the bid over us. But they are going to beat each other up for the next few weeks.t4pizza wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:41 pmI know that I am in the minority but I don't see a 1 loss AAC champ and not even sure that Boise keeps surviving and finishes with one loss. I expect the AAC to continue to beat up on itself and won't be surprised if Boise loses again. At the end of the day it is only between G5 conference champs and when all the chips are down we may very well have the best record and the only G5 with two P5 away wins. And if that happens, I have no question that the committee has us as the highest ranked team. We will get some indication of what the committee thinks of our win this past week when the rankings are revealed tonight.
On the Charlotte board some think Charlotte could/will be in the Belk Bowl. They should get to 6 wins with ODU up at the end of the year.ericsaid wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:19 pmBest case scenario: Sun Belt fills bowl tie-ins, SEC does not, App wins the conference with Louisiana in second, Louisiana Tech agrees to play in New Orleans. NOLA Committee would likely consider a substitution in this case. Just because there is no process in place for substitution doesn't mean that the Sun Belt couldn't put one in place, or begin discussions on that process now. Going 12-1 with a Top 20 ranking and making the New Orleans bowl against a team that isn't guaranteed to be the C-USA champion would be an indictment of ineptitude on the part of the Sun Belt league offices.
This gives App, the Sun Belt, and ESPN plenty of leverage against NOLA to push App to another bowl like the Belk Bowl in Charlotte against an ACC team. Louisville or Virginia Tech would be an ideal opponent.
I agree with all this, with the exception that I do have some doubt as to whether a 12-1 App would get the bid over an 11-2 AAC champ.t4pizza wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:41 pmI know that I am in the minority but I don't see a 1 loss AAC champ and not even sure that Boise keeps surviving and finishes with one loss. I expect the AAC to continue to beat up on itself and won't be surprised if Boise loses again. At the end of the day it is only between G5 conference champs and when all the chips are down we may very well have the best record and the only G5 with two P5 away wins. And if that happens, I have no question that the committee has us as the highest ranked team. We will get some indication of what the committee thinks of our win this past week when the rankings are revealed tonight.
The Belk Bowl would not be one of the first to be left unfilled. For the SEC, for example, they have two bowls (I believe Birmingham and Independence) that are on the bottom "tier" for them, meaning they'd be the first to go unfilled if they don't have enough teams. After that, Belk is on a tier with several others.McLeansvilleAppFan wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:59 pmOn the Charlotte board some think Charlotte could/will be in the Belk Bowl. They should get to 6 wins with ODU up at the end of the year.ericsaid wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:19 pmBest case scenario: Sun Belt fills bowl tie-ins, SEC does not, App wins the conference with Louisiana in second, Louisiana Tech agrees to play in New Orleans. NOLA Committee would likely consider a substitution in this case. Just because there is no process in place for substitution doesn't mean that the Sun Belt couldn't put one in place, or begin discussions on that process now. Going 12-1 with a Top 20 ranking and making the New Orleans bowl against a team that isn't guaranteed to be the C-USA champion would be an indictment of ineptitude on the part of the Sun Belt league offices.
This gives App, the Sun Belt, and ESPN plenty of leverage against NOLA to push App to another bowl like the Belk Bowl in Charlotte against an ACC team. Louisville or Virginia Tech would be an ideal opponent.