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How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:05 am
by CoachRob
So looking at the College Football Playoff Rankings, here are all the ranked G5 teams in order:
#17 Cincinnati
#18 Memphis
#21 Boise State
#23 Navy
#25 App State
Here is the best possible outcome for App to be the highest rank G5 at the end of the season:
1) App win out. That's obvious, but need convincing wins over two good teams in GSU and Troy, plus beating a very good UL team. With 2 P5 wins, very impressive resume.
2) Navy lose to ND. They play the Irish this upcoming weekend in South Bend. A lose here is likely and would move App past the Midshipmen.
3) A Navy victory over SMU the next week to ensure the Mustangs don't pass us is needed as well. SMU will most likely pass App in the rankings if they win out. So need Navy to be pissed off after losing to the Irish to take care of SMU.
4) Need Jordan Love to go Off! Boise visits the Aggies in two weeks and is the best possible loss for the Broncos till the MWC game. A loss should keep App ahead of Boise in the rankings by the end of the year. Go Big Blue.
5) Memphis or Ciny winner can't win the AAC ... the Tigers and Bearcats play each other to end the regular season. So 1 will be eliminated. But this is where is gets interesting ... If Cincy losses, they will still play in the AAC Championship game. Does a two loss Cincy AAC champ get in over 1 loss APP? Does a two loss SMU or Navy AAC Champ get ahead of 1 loss APP? What is Memphis wins than losses to Cincy in the Championship game? Those are the big questions.
Is this going to happen? Probably not
Is there a decent possibility? Absolutely
Thoughts?
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:17 am
by Rick83
The AAC could possibly enter tie-breaker hell in the West so hard to figure that one out...Cincy is looking good for the East but could easily lose at Memphis but then win the championship game. So we'd have a 2 loss AAC champion to go up against. Other scenarios could play out of course in the AAC that could help us.
I feel like Boise is vulnerable and could lose to San Diego St in their championship game, or Boise could drop another even before then...either way very possible to have a 2 loss MWC champion.
We need the football gods to look on us favorably for this to happen...would we be chosen over those 2 loss champions remains to be seen...but I like our chances. If we can win out with lopsided games it'd help our chances for sure.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:21 am
by NattyBumppo'sRevenge
We have to beat Georgia State, Texas State, Troy and UL again.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:39 pm
by AppStFan1
CoachRob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:05 am
So looking at the College Football Playoff Rankings, here are all the ranked G5 teams in order:
#17 Cincinnati
#18 Memphis
#21 Boise State
#23 Navy
#25 App State
Here is the best possible outcome for App to be the highest rank G5 at the end of the season:
1) App win out. That's obvious, but need convincing wins over two good teams in GSU and Troy, plus beating a very good UL team. With 2 P5 wins, very impressive resume.
2) Navy lose to ND. They play the Irish this upcoming weekend in South Bend. A lose here is likely and would move App past the Midshipmen.
3) A Navy victory over SMU the next week to ensure the Mustangs don't pass us is needed as well. SMU will most likely pass App in the rankings if they win out. So need Navy to be pissed off after losing to the Irish to take care of SMU.
4) Need Jordan Love to go Off! Boise visits the Aggies in two weeks and is the best possible loss for the Broncos till the MWC game. A loss should keep App ahead of Boise in the rankings by the end of the year. Go Big Blue.
5) Memphis or Ciny winner can't win the AAC ... the Tigers and Bearcats play each other to end the regular season. So 1 will be eliminated. But this is where is gets interesting ... If Cincy losses, they will still play in the AAC Championship game. Does a two loss Cincy AAC champ get in over 1 loss APP? Does a two loss SMU or Navy AAC Champ get ahead of 1 loss APP? What is Memphis wins than losses to Cincy in the Championship game? Those are the big questions.
Is this going to happen? Probably not
Is there a decent possibility? Absolutely
Thoughts?
I posted what we have to do in the #25 thread going on. You forgot the most important thing though.
1. We have to win with style points. We can't just win. We have to win big.
2. We need Navy to lose one more and they have two tough games left.
3. We need Cincy to lose one more.
4. We need Memphis to lose one more.
5. We need Boise State to lose one more.
We needed about 8 things after the GSU loss so let's see where we are in two weeks. My guess is what the list of 5 will fall down to 2 or 3 things left but we will see.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:04 pm
by ASU2012
I think it's more likely than people think. We basically need Boise, Cinci, and Memphis to each lose once. I'm pencilling in Navy losing to ND in that scenario.
SMU are a fraud and the committee knows it. See them dropping out after a W this week. I'm not worried about them at all.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:31 pm
by AppInDC
ASU2012 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:04 pm
I think it's more likely than people think. We basically need Boise, Cinci, and Memphis to each lose once. I'm pencilling in Navy losing to ND in that scenario.
SMU are a fraud and the committee knows it. See them dropping out after a W this week. I'm not worried about them at all.
Eh. I think calling SMU is a fraud is a bit much. We have game planned some wild scenarios on this board but here's one that I think is very much in play.
SMU wins at Navy
SMU beats Tulane
Memphis loses to Cincy (any loss would do but this loss strengthens Cincy for AAC title game)
SMU beats Cincy whose only loss is to a currently incredible looking Ohio State team
In that scenario, we might as well plan for the New Orleans Bowl because fraud or not, App won't and probably shouldn't top a 12-1 SMU with road wins against TCU, Navy, and Cincy and their only loss to a nationally ranked team on the road in primetime.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:52 pm
by CoachRob
AppInDC wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:31 pm
ASU2012 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:04 pm
I think it's more likely than people think. We basically need Boise, Cinci, and Memphis to each lose once. I'm pencilling in Navy losing to ND in that scenario.
SMU are a fraud and the committee knows it. See them dropping out after a W this week. I'm not worried about them at all.
Eh. I think calling SMU is a fraud is a bit much. We have game planned some wild scenarios on this board but here's one that I think is very much in play.
SMU wins at Navy
SMU beats Tulane
Memphis loses to Cincy (any loss would do but this loss strengthens Cincy for AAC title game)
SMU beats Cincy whose only loss is to a currently incredible looking Ohio State team
In that scenario, we might as well plan for the New Orleans Bowl because fraud or not, App won't and probably shouldn't top a 12-1 SMU with road wins against TCU, Navy, and Cincy and their only loss to a nationally ranked team on the road in primetime.
I agree, need SMU to lose another as well. Vs Navy seems likely.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:11 pm
by ASU2012
Fair enough, but I think the chances of SMU winning out are close to 0%. Sure, you could pencil in a win for every remaining game, but that's not realistic at all given their recent run of form and remaining schedule.
They gave up...51...to ECU
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:18 pm
by t4pizza
AppInDC wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:31 pm
ASU2012 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:04 pm
I think it's more likely than people think. We basically need Boise, Cinci, and Memphis to each lose once. I'm pencilling in Navy losing to ND in that scenario.
SMU are a fraud and the committee knows it. See them dropping out after a W this week. I'm not worried about them at all.
Eh. I think calling SMU is a fraud is a bit much. We have game planned some wild scenarios on this board but here's one that I think is very much in play.
SMU wins at Navy
SMU beats Tulane
Memphis loses to Cincy (any loss would do but this loss strengthens Cincy for AAC title game)
SMU beats Cincy whose only loss is to a currently incredible looking Ohio State team
In that scenario, we might as well plan for the New Orleans Bowl because fraud or not, App won't and probably shouldn't top a 12-1 SMU with road wins against TCU, Navy, and Cincy and their only loss to a nationally ranked team on the road in primetime.
Those road wins are no more impressive than ours at UNC, USC and ever Louisiana which can easily be 10-2 when we face them for the Sun Belt title. TCU is no better than either of our P5 wins and Navy has beaten nobody of note and Cincy is still propped up by their victory over a 3 loss UCF. If an AAC team currently ahead of us wins the conference at 12-1 then I think they get the Cotton Bowl but I don't see SMU jumping us, they just haven't looked that good of late and our wins are better- 2 P5 road wins.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:26 pm
by CoachRob
AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:39 pm
CoachRob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:05 am
So looking at the College Football Playoff Rankings, here are all the ranked G5 teams in order:
#17 Cincinnati
#18 Memphis
#21 Boise State
#23 Navy
#25 App State
Here is the best possible outcome for App to be the highest rank G5 at the end of the season:
1) App win out. That's obvious, but need convincing wins over two good teams in GSU and Troy, plus beating a very good UL team. With 2 P5 wins, very impressive resume.
2) Navy lose to ND. They play the Irish this upcoming weekend in South Bend. A lose here is likely and would move App past the Midshipmen.
3) A Navy victory over SMU the next week to ensure the Mustangs don't pass us is needed as well. SMU will most likely pass App in the rankings if they win out. So need Navy to be pissed off after losing to the Irish to take care of SMU.
4) Need Jordan Love to go Off! Boise visits the Aggies in two weeks and is the best possible loss for the Broncos till the MWC game. A loss should keep App ahead of Boise in the rankings by the end of the year. Go Big Blue.
5) Memphis or Ciny winner can't win the AAC ... the Tigers and Bearcats play each other to end the regular season. So 1 will be eliminated. But this is where is gets interesting ... If Cincy losses, they will still play in the AAC Championship game. Does a two loss Cincy AAC champ get in over 1 loss APP? Does a two loss SMU or Navy AAC Champ get ahead of 1 loss APP? What is Memphis wins than losses to Cincy in the Championship game? Those are the big questions.
Is this going to happen? Probably not
Is there a decent possibility? Absolutely
Thoughts?
I posted what we have to do in the #25 thread going on. You forgot the most important thing though.
1. We have to win with style points. We can't just win. We have to win big.
2. We need Navy to lose one more and they have two tough games left.
3. We need Cincy to lose one more.
4. We need Memphis to lose one more.
5. We need Boise State to lose one more.
We needed about 8 things after the GSU loss so let's see where we are in two weeks. My guess is what the list of 5 will fall down to 2 or 3 things left but we will see.
I was trying to provide a more thorough breakdown of the best possible way each of those teams can draw a loss. To me, these games are the best chances for App to achieve our ultimate goal.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:34 pm
by AppInDC
t4pizza wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:18 pm
AppInDC wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:31 pm
ASU2012 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:04 pm
I think it's more likely than people think. We basically need Boise, Cinci, and Memphis to each lose once. I'm pencilling in Navy losing to ND in that scenario.
SMU are a fraud and the committee knows it. See them dropping out after a W this week. I'm not worried about them at all.
Eh. I think calling SMU is a fraud is a bit much. We have game planned some wild scenarios on this board but here's one that I think is very much in play.
SMU wins at Navy
SMU beats Tulane
Memphis loses to Cincy (any loss would do but this loss strengthens Cincy for AAC title game)
SMU beats Cincy whose only loss is to a currently incredible looking Ohio State team
In that scenario, we might as well plan for the New Orleans Bowl because fraud or not, App won't and probably shouldn't top a 12-1 SMU with road wins against TCU, Navy, and Cincy and their only loss to a nationally ranked team on the road in primetime.
Those road wins are no more impressive than ours at UNC, USC and ever Louisiana which can easily be 10-2 when we face them for the Sun Belt title. TCU is no better than either of our P5 wins and Navy has beaten nobody of note and Cincy is still propped up by their victory over a 3 loss UCF. If an AAC team currently ahead of us wins the conference at 12-1 then I think they get the Cotton Bowl but I don't see SMU jumping us, they just haven't looked that good of late and our wins are better- 2 P5 road wins.
Maybe so. But as far as losses, SMU's to a two loss Memphis on the road will easily compare better than App's home loss to Georgia Southern who still needs a win to get bowl-eligible. Just saying that I disagree with SMU being a fraud.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:52 pm
by AppStFan1
CoachRob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:26 pm
AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:39 pm
CoachRob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:05 am
So looking at the College Football Playoff Rankings, here are all the ranked G5 teams in order:
#17 Cincinnati
#18 Memphis
#21 Boise State
#23 Navy
#25 App State
Here is the best possible outcome for App to be the highest rank G5 at the end of the season:
1) App win out. That's obvious, but need convincing wins over two good teams in GSU and Troy, plus beating a very good UL team. With 2 P5 wins, very impressive resume.
2) Navy lose to ND. They play the Irish this upcoming weekend in South Bend. A lose here is likely and would move App past the Midshipmen.
3) A Navy victory over SMU the next week to ensure the Mustangs don't pass us is needed as well. SMU will most likely pass App in the rankings if they win out. So need Navy to be pissed off after losing to the Irish to take care of SMU.
4) Need Jordan Love to go Off! Boise visits the Aggies in two weeks and is the best possible loss for the Broncos till the MWC game. A loss should keep App ahead of Boise in the rankings by the end of the year. Go Big Blue.
5) Memphis or Ciny winner can't win the AAC ... the Tigers and Bearcats play each other to end the regular season. So 1 will be eliminated. But this is where is gets interesting ... If Cincy losses, they will still play in the AAC Championship game. Does a two loss Cincy AAC champ get in over 1 loss APP? Does a two loss SMU or Navy AAC Champ get ahead of 1 loss APP? What is Memphis wins than losses to Cincy in the Championship game? Those are the big questions.
Is this going to happen? Probably not
Is there a decent possibility? Absolutely
Thoughts?
I posted what we have to do in the #25 thread going on. You forgot the most important thing though.
1. We have to win with style points. We can't just win. We have to win big.
2. We need Navy to lose one more and they have two tough games left.
3. We need Cincy to lose one more.
4. We need Memphis to lose one more.
5. We need Boise State to lose one more.
We needed about 8 things after the GSU loss so let's see where we are in two weeks. My guess is what the list of 5 will fall down to 2 or 3 things left but we will see.
I was trying to provide a more thorough breakdown of the best possible way each of those teams can draw a loss. To me, these games are the best chances for App to achieve our ultimate goal.
I just did not know if you saw what I listed before. That was more detail for sure and if all that happens we do. It does not matter who those teams lose to as long as they lose. Navy is the only one who could maybe lose to ND and win out and get in over us. The rest don't have enough quality wins to overcome a loss. It would have to be an overtime loss or something super close to ND and blowout wins against the rest of the AAC though.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:58 pm
by YesAppCan
Curious... Do ya'll think a "bad win" ever plays into things?
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:09 pm
by bigdaddyg
YesAppCan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:58 pm
Curious... Do ya'll think a "bad win" ever plays into things?
I think it goes like this:
Good win (beating a perceived better team, preferably on the road)
Good loss (losing a close game to a better team, preferably on the road)
Bad loss (losing a game to team you should have beaten, on the road)
Worse bad loss (losing a game to team you should have beaten, at home)
Horrible loss (losing to a bad team, either home or away that should never have happened)
Bad win- no such thing unless the margin plays on the minds of those who decide.
I guess an argument could be made that we have two of the first ones and one of the 4th ones but conference affiliation and degree of annual rivalry should be considered. Anyone with a fifth one should be eliminated from any ranking, playoff discussion or good bowl bid.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:27 pm
by Black Saturday
YesAppCan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:58 pm
Curious... Do ya'll think a "bad win" ever plays into things?
Ask Clemson
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:43 pm
by ViewCrew87
Time to let the screws out on the "O" coach! The college football world is watching. Don't lay down in the 4th quarter!
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:47 pm
by appstatealum
Rick83 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:17 am
The AAC could possibly enter tie-breaker hell in the West so hard to figure that one out...Cincy is looking good for the East but could easily lose at Memphis but then win the championship game. So we'd have a 2 loss AAC champion to go up against. Other scenarios could play out of course in the AAC that could help us.
I feel like Boise is vulnerable and could lose to San Diego St in their championship game, or Boise could drop another even before then...either way very possible to have a 2 loss MWC champion.
We need the football gods to look on us favorably for this to happen...would we be chosen over those 2 loss champions remains to be seen...but I like our chances. If we can win out with lopsided games it'd help our chances for sure.
I think a 2 loss AAC team could get the nod over us, but at this point, none of them have done much to convince me of that. A 2 loss MWC champ definitely will not make it over us. That conference is bad this year (including Boise) and committee will notice.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:50 pm
by appstatealum
Black Saturday wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:27 pm
YesAppCan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:58 pm
Curious... Do ya'll think a "bad win" ever plays into things?
Ask Clemson
Correct. Committee is actually studying SOC and win differentials. It may be a stretch, but I think we would’ve ranked higher had we put another TD or two on SC. Just look at UGA going in the top 4 over Bama. Bama hasn’t beat a Top 25 and they held that against them.
And there is “bad wins” in the eyes of the committee, just look at Baylor- there is a reason they haven’t cracked the Top 10 as an undefeated team.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:24 pm
by NewApp
NY6 would certainly be nice, but first let's win out, thus winning the Conference, then win the Sun Belt Conference Championship game at home. Let the chips fall where they may.
Re: How App State can still get the NY6 Bowl.
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:25 pm
by Appstate88
We can control only what we can do. That means we need to get in our cars, drive to Atlanta, buy a $6 ticket and cheer for our Mountaineers Saturday night in a must win conference game. See you in Atlanta. Go Apps! #beatGSU