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This Weekend's Scenarios

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/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09
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This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by /\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:19 am

An App State win and an Arkansas State (-1.5) win over Georgia Southern gives App State the East. If Troy (+14.0) wants to help out and beat Lousiana then we would also have the conference title game played in Boone. Of course the first thing's first and the W on Saturday is what's most important. 1-0!



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by ah59396 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:22 am

Georgia Southern is O’doyle and we are Billy Madison. Good always prevails over evil eventually.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by Westisthebest » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:36 am

If we're going 1-0 every week, wouldn't it make since for Southern and Louisiana to win? Louisiana could potentially be ranked in a poll in a few weeks if they win out. Wouldn't that be our best bet to jump in cfp?
Also who really wants to back into a championship? That's pretty weak.
Would be nice for Coastal to win their final 2. Would make 6 bowl eligible and would help us out.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by ah59396 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:48 am

Troy can lose to Louisiana as long as Louisiana runs the table until they see us in the SBC game. I want our land back.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by NattyBumppo'sRevenge » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:50 am

I'd rather them both win out as well with us winning our next two and possibly hosting a ranked UL team in the Conference Championship game, but understand the intent of the OP. If UL could get ranked before the championship game and we beat them, we'd be sitting at 12-1 with two P5 wins and a win against a ranked opponent. That'd be a good resume against what Boise State has done thus far. They'd have beaten 1 P5 who has since fired their coach and have no ranked wins. We just need the AAC to kill each other off.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by WataugaMan » Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:03 am

/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09 wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:19 am
If Troy (+14.0) wants to help out and beat Lousiana then we would also have the conference title game played in Boone.
I realize what you're saying, however: If we win out isn't the conference title game going to be in Boone regardless of what Louisiana does? If they and App both win out we'd be tied at one loss each in conference play. We won the head to head, thus the conference title game will be played in Boone. Also, we'd have the best overall record. Anyway, it's nice to be in control of our own destiny. Just keep winning!



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by AppStAlum2007 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:07 am

For me personally, I would prefer having the division title and home field advantage in the conference championship assured before the last game of the season. I understand the arguments for having Southern and Louisiana win out since it helps out the strength of schedule somewhat. This weekend, I think what would help our chances more than anything in regard to the NY6 would be Utah State beating Boise and South Florida knocking off Memphis.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by asucrutch23 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:17 am

WataugaMan wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:03 am
/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09 wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:19 am
If Troy (+14.0) wants to help out and beat Lousiana then we would also have the conference title game played in Boone.
I realize what you're saying, however: If we win out isn't the conference title game going to be in Boone regardless of what Louisiana does? If they and App both win out we'd be tied at one loss each in conference play. We won the head to head, thus the conference title game will be played in Boone. Also, we'd have the best overall record. Anyway, it's nice to be in control of our own destiny. Just keep winning!
I think he's just saying that if we win and Louisiana and Georgia Southern lose, we will clinch hosting the title game. So we can lose to Troy that next week and still host it.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by /\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:23 am

Jesus Christ people, I just laid out a scenario-based off on the theory many have had on here that we take things one week at a time. I'm not suggesting this scenario play out and then we rest starts against Troy, or feel like the mission for the season is accomplished. Just simply speaking to a what-if that could play out this weekend.

The AAC scenario is too much to type, but in short, we would need a 2 loss team to beat a 1 loss team in their conference title game.

We will not jump Boise State even if we both win out, including a possible win against a ranked Lousiana. The Committee will give them the nod based on their name and past success. We need Boise State to drop one, which I feel could happen this weekend.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by GregPercussion » Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:07 pm

SunBelt wise: From what I've been told if we beat TxSt and GS loses to ArkState, we clinch the East Division, regardless of what happens with Troy the following week.

True statement?



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by AppStAlum2007 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 pm

GregPercussion wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:07 pm
SunBelt wise: From what I've been told if we beat TxSt and GS loses to ArkState, we clinch the East Division, regardless of what happens with Troy the following week.

True statement?
Yes that is my understanding.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by asucrutch23 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:07 pm

GregPercussion wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:07 pm
SunBelt wise: From what I've been told if we beat TxSt and GS loses to ArkState, we clinch the East Division, regardless of what happens with Troy the following week.

True statement?
We'd be at least 2 games clear of every East team with only 1 to play. Yes, that would clinch.

Hosting the title game would then depend on the results from the last week, unless, as /\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09 mentions above, Louisiana also loses this week.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by Rick83 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:08 pm

The original post is just saying that if on Saturday, we win, and Ark State wins (over Ga Southern), we clinch the East. If Troy also wins (over UL), we clinch hosting the championship game in Boone...This Saturday that could all happen and we could punch our tickets to the Dec 7th Sun Belt Championship game in Boone.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by asucrutch23 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:13 pm

Odds of all 3 happening this week and us clinching hosting the title game:

Using ESPN's FPI: 10.0% chance

Using TeamRankings.com: 6.4% chance



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by Westisthebest » Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:23 pm

Definitely understand what original post was saying. That is just a real Nancy way to look at things. At the beginning of the season that should have been a goal and especially after losing to Southern. But goals can and should evolve throughout the course of the season. We are on the brink of something bigger and I think anything that helps us get to that next goal is more important than clinching a week earlier. It may not make a difference. In fact it probably won't, but it could. However I guarantee that if those teams lose it definitely doesn't help the bigger goal.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by AppSt94 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:58 pm

I believe that if we win out, the CCG would be in Boone.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by biggie » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:21 pm

Should be, if both ULL and us win out we should own the tie breaker of the head to head. Everyone else in the West has more than 1 loss already.



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by teller » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:38 pm

/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09 wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:23 am
Jesus Christ people, I just laid out a scenario-based off on the theory many have had on here that we take things one week at a time. I'm not suggesting this scenario play out and then we rest starts against Troy, or feel like the mission for the season is accomplished. Just simply speaking to a what-if that could play out this weekend.

The AAC scenario is too much to type, but in short, we would need a 2 loss team to beat a 1 loss team in their conference title game.

We will not jump Boise State even if we both win out, including a possible win against a ranked Lousiana. The Committee will give them the nod based on their name and past success. We need Boise State to drop one, which I feel could happen this weekend.
I could be wrong, but will Boise State not play SDSU again in a conference championship game? If so, and SDSU beats them, that should get us past them for cotton bowl consideration? Still have the AAC to contend with...



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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by Black Saturday » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:43 pm

All we had to do was beat an inferior team on Halloween night, and this would have been a boring place with no scenarios to contemplate.


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Re: This Weekend's Scenarios

Unread post by Longrifle28 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:49 pm

Black Saturday wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:43 pm
All we had to do was beat an inferior team on Halloween night, and this would have been a boring place with no scenarios to contemplate.
Thus is life (and Murphy's Law).....


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