This Weekend's Scenarios

[BeauFoster]

All we had to do was beat an inferior team on Halloween night, and this would have been a boring place with no scenarios to contemplate.

Oh no, there would have been plenty of other topics to discuss. Like BBQ and cups with ice!

[Black Saturday]

All we had to do was beat an inferior team on Halloween night, and this would have been a boring place with no scenarios to contemplate.

Oh no, there would have been plenty of other topics to discuss. Like BBQ and cups with ice!

That would be more gratifying. lol

[BeauFoster]

Que thread derail in 3...2...1...

[WASU 93]

The original poster was laying out the best possible scenario for our team this weekend based on the goal of hosting the Championship in Boone.

If ASU wins both games, the Championship game is in Boone

This, week: If ASU wins and GaSo and Louisiana both lose, the Championship game is probably in Boone regardless of what happens the final week. (except my last point comes into play)

If Louisiana wins out, we win one of the last two and GaSo loses one of the last two, we would play in the Championship Game, but it would be in Louisiana.

If Louisiana wins one of two, we win one of two and GaSo loses one of the last two, we would play in the Championship Game in Boone.

If we win one of two and GaSo wins their last two, GaSo would play Louisiana in the Championship Game, assuming they win one of two.

If Arkansas State wins out, Louisiana loses their last two and we win out....we would host Arkansas State in the Championship Game.

The is also the possibility in the West of Louisiana losing both games, Arkansas State winning one of two and Louisiana Lafayette winning both, there would be a three-way tie in the west, which would possibly go to the 8th or 9th tie-breaker depending on if the Ark. State loss was to GaSo or USA.

If we win this week, but lose next week, Louisiana loses their last two and Arkansas State wins out....we would make the Championship Game, but there is a chance that the game could be played at Arkansas State (it gets into CFP rankings, composite computer rankings and, possibly who won on the last weekend at that point.

I think I have all of these correct, feel free to correct me if you see fit.

[booneboy92]

Simplest, most desirable and best case scenario... We win out (NY6 be damned)!

[Rick83]

It'd be nice to get a big 1st half lead this Saturday and rest the starters in the 2nd half to gear up for the final championship run...at Troy...and then at Boone.

[HighPointApp]

We need Diet Mountain Dew sold in large cups with ice and a BBQ sandwich.

[booneboy92]

It'd be nice to get a big 1st half lead this Saturday and rest the starters in the 2nd half to gear up for the final championship run...at Troy...and then at Boone.

Especially on the road, at Troy, with a short, holiday week. Not looking past Tx State, but that short week might be my biggest source of nerves right now... (see 10/31/19)...

[WataugaMan]

All we had to do was beat an inferior team on Halloween night, and this would have been a boring place with no scenarios to contemplate.

This is true, again.

[/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09]

Jesus Christ people, I just laid out a scenario-based off on the theory many have had on here that we take things one week at a time. I'm not suggesting this scenario play out and then we rest starts against Troy, or feel like the mission for the season is accomplished. Just simply speaking to a what-if that could play out this weekend.

The AAC scenario is too much to type, but in short, we would need a 2 loss team to beat a 1 loss team in their conference title game.

We will not jump Boise State even if we both win out, including a possible win against a ranked Lousiana. The Committee will give them the nod based on their name and past success. We need Boise State to drop one, which I feel could happen this weekend.

I could be wrong, but will Boise State not play SDSU again in a conference championship game? If so, and SDSU beats them, that should get us past them for cotton bowl consideration? Still have the AAC to contend with...

Any loss by Boise State jumps us ahead of them in the rankings (Assuming we win out). Winner of SDSU and Hawaii will potentially face Boise State in the Mountain West Championship. There is still a way for Boise State to not even make their conference title

[AppSt12]

Troy can lose to Louisiana as long as Louisiana runs the table until they see us in the SBC game. I want our land back.

What on earth does this map mean?

[AppSt12]

All we had to do was beat an inferior team on Halloween night, and this would have been a boring place with no scenarios to contemplate.

This is true, again.

There is a nearly 0% chance the Georgia Southern loss doesnt end up being a cataclysmic failure in app state history. If we lose to Troy then that less kept us out of the conference title game, if we win out and miss out on the cotton bowl to go back to NO...we can blame the 3 point loss to GA Southern...if we make the cotton bowl and someone win...we missed out in a perfect season. Now I'll take winning the cotton bowl and it would be the best season in our history....but I'm afraid the Georgia Southern game keeps us from taking the next step

[ah59396]

Troy can lose to Louisiana as long as Louisiana runs the table until they see us in the SBC game. I want our land back.

What on earth does this map mean?

Haha my apologies, some context would help.

This is the College Empire map from Reddit.

At the beginning of the season, all FBS teams own the counties closest to their school. If you beat a team that owns land, you gain theirs. If a team has no land, nothing happens.

So prior to Ga Southern, we had a decent swath. Ga Southern took all our land and then subsequently lost it to Troy, who now owns it.

We happened to gain some new land in beating South Carolina, who had taken it from Vandy, who had taken it from etc.

Long story short, Troy has our land. If they beat UL, they still have it when they play us. If they lose to UL and we beat Texas State and Troy, there’s a good chance we see UL in the championship and get to take it from them.

It’s something dumb that I’m hilariously invested in.

[AppInDC]

All we had to do was beat an inferior team on Halloween night, and this would have been a boring place with no scenarios to contemplate.

This is true, again.

There is a nearly 0% chance the Georgia Southern loss doesnt end up being a cataclysmic failure in app state history. If we lose to Troy then that less kept us out of the conference title game, if we win out and miss out on the cotton bowl to go back to NO...we can blame the 3 point loss to GA Southern...if we make the cotton bowl and someone win...we missed out in a perfect season. Now I'll take winning the cotton bowl and it would be the best season in our history....but I'm afraid the Georgia Southern game keeps us from taking the next step

I agree the Georgia Southern loss sucked but if App finishes 12-1 and goes to the Cotton Bowl, then I hope every season is a cataclysmic failure.

[AppSt12]

All we had to do was beat an inferior team on Halloween night, and this would have been a boring place with no scenarios to contemplate.

This is true, again.

There is a nearly 0% chance the Georgia Southern loss doesnt end up being a cataclysmic failure in app state history. If we lose to Troy then that less kept us out of the conference title game, if we win out and miss out on the cotton bowl to go back to NO...we can blame the 3 point loss to GA Southern...if we make the cotton bowl and someone win...we missed out in a perfect season. Now I'll take winning the cotton bowl and it would be the best season in our history....but I'm afraid the Georgia Southern game keeps us from taking the next step

I agree the Georgia Southern loss sucked but if App finishes 12-1 and goes to the Cotton Bowl, then I hope every season is a cataclysmic failure.

Agreed. But anything less than winning the cotton bowl will leave us with so much regret. Not a failure...would be an awesome season at 12-1 no matter what. But that would still leave that one game as a historic meltdown

[Yosefus]

We can't regret a 3 point loss to an all time rival. It sucks but how many undefeated teams are left in the top 25 right now? 2? The rest have also lost conference games some even to underdogs. 12-1 would be a great season with 2 P-5 wins cotton bowl or not.

[Westisthebest]

I'm still curious what happens when coastal wins their last two games. 6 bowl eligible teams in conference with 5 tie ins. I understand champion goes to New Orleans, but it seems like the conference would make a exception which would not only benefit App(put us in a completely different bowl game against a p5 or aac) and UL(so they could play in NO bowl), but also the conference. I would imagine they would want the conference champ at 12-1 playing against a p5 or aac school instead of a second place team from a weak g5 conference. There would be much more interest in App versus wake/fsu/Cincinnati/smu than a Toledo/Ohio/wku. As everyone knows and many have said that perception is key. If App beats another second tier g5 school in a bowl game it doesn't move the needle but if we were to beat a p5 school in a bowl game that perception, that is already changing, will continue to change at a greater rate. It just seems it would be a win win for the sunbelt conference and the schools it would affect.

Pull for coastal. They ought to win their final 2.

If we were to lost any of the next 3 games then all this doesn't matter. We won't have earned that chance.

[WataugaMan]

I could possibly see a Louisiana - Louisiana Tech match up in New Orleans, and us in another bowl (against someone like Wake, Virginia, SMU etc.) as you suggest. Just keep winning and sit back and wait.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

Troy can lose to Louisiana as long as Louisiana runs the table until they see us in the SBC game. I want our land back.

What on earth does this map mean?

Haha my apologies, some context would help.

This is the College Empire map from Reddit.

At the beginning of the season, all FBS teams own the counties closest to their school. If you beat a team that owns land, you gain theirs. If a team has no land, nothing happens.

So prior to Ga Southern, we had a decent swath. Ga Southern took all our land and then subsequently lost it to Troy, who now owns it.

We happened to gain some new land in beating South Carolina, who had taken it from Vandy, who had taken it from etc.

Long story short, Troy has our land. If they beat UL, they still have it when they play us. If they lose to UL and we beat Texas State and Troy, there’s a good chance we see UL in the championship and get to take it from them.

It’s something dumb that I’m hilariously invested in.

Hopefully Iowa wins out (taking Illinois's land) and we get to play them in the Cotton Bowl.

[Yosef84]

All we had to do was beat an inferior team on Halloween night, and this would have been a boring place with no scenarios to contemplate.

This is true, again.

There is a nearly 0% chance the Georgia Southern loss doesnt end up being a cataclysmic failure in app state history. If we lose to Troy then that less kept us out of the conference title game, if we win out and miss out on the cotton bowl to go back to NO...we can blame the 3 point loss to GA Southern...if we make the cotton bowl and someone win...we missed out in a perfect season. Now I'll take winning the cotton bowl and it would be the best season in our history....but I'm afraid the Georgia Southern game keeps us from taking the next step

I agree the Georgia Southern loss sucked but if App finishes 12-1 and goes to the Cotton Bowl, then I hope every season is a cataclysmic failure.

Agreed. But anything less than winning the cotton bowl will leave us with so much regret. Not a failure...would be an awesome season at 12-1 no matter what. But that would still leave that one game as a historic meltdown

I understand the emotion driving your comments and appreciate your passion but I think you're overstating the case a bit. We've already accomplished more this season (and over the past 5 years) than any reasonable person could have expected when we made this transition. That feeling of having a major opportunity lost is exactly what we have felt three times recently when we left "wins" on the field against Tennessee, Wake and Penn State. That's how sports work! There has been no cataclysmic event this season....just a disappointing loss. If we lose to Troy, then our "failure" is no more attributed to the GS loss than it is to the loss at Troy. For me, the epitome of a "disappointing" season was 2017. We lost the Wake game even though we outplayed them the whole way....off-sides call on a punt that gave Wake back the ball and resulted in the winning score...followed by a blocked kick! UGH!!! Then there was the mid season meltdown resulting in losses to UMass and ULM. YIKES! We recovered and salvaged a share of the SB Championship and then dominated Toledo in our bowl game. The App nation survived that season and continued to move forward. If something happens this year to prevent the attainment of our goals, we'll do the same thing.