APP -3.5

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AppStateMtneer
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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by AppStateMtneer » Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:34 pm

Should be the best weather we have had in a while at home... SHOW UP and SUPPORT! Buy tickets!



WASU 93
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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by WASU 93 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:28 pm

AppStFan1 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:51 pm
AppSt94 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:49 pm
falcoapp wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:37 pm
We should cover easily if last week was any indication of our performance going forward.
The performance, while great, was more to do with the opponent. Not disparaging the performance, just saying we can play that same way next week with a much closer result.
ULL is much better than Troy. If we somehow beat ULL like a drum as well then I will be very impressed. I'll just be happy to win and stay undefeated against these guys.
I know the transitive property doesn't apply, but ULL struggled (and was lucky) to beat ULM at home and we crushed ULM. I respect ULL, but I think this line moves towards -6 by game time.



AppStFan1
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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:20 pm

WASU 93 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:28 pm
AppStFan1 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:51 pm
AppSt94 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:49 pm
falcoapp wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:37 pm
We should cover easily if last week was any indication of our performance going forward.
The performance, while great, was more to do with the opponent. Not disparaging the performance, just saying we can play that same way next week with a much closer result.
ULL is much better than Troy. If we somehow beat ULL like a drum as well then I will be very impressed. I'll just be happy to win and stay undefeated against these guys.
I know the transitive property doesn't apply, but ULL struggled (and was lucky) to beat ULM at home and we crushed ULM. I respect ULL, but I think this line moves towards -6 by game time.
I don't remember what the line did before. Most will say okay they won by 10 on the road and are playing even better now. Let's go with App -3.5 but I see ESPN.com has the line at -6. It will be interesting to see what those who gamble do here. I could see some saying App should cover easy or some saying it is tough to win a second time and stay away from this game.
Last edited by AppStFan1 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.



WASU 93
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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by WASU 93 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:59 pm

yosef69 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:39 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:37 pm
Unless you are actually putting real money on the game who cares what the spread is? And why worry simply because we are ONLY favored by 3.5 or even 6 points? Vegas doesn’t dictate anything. We own La.
Because they're usually shockingly accurate?
Actually, they are only amazingly accurate when it stands out that they nailed a line: (like the Northwestern/UMass game this year)

This year:
APP favored by 33 over ETSU (closing line). We won 42-7 (covered by 6)
APP favored by 22.5 over UNCC. We won 56-41 (failed to cover by 7.5)
UNC favored by 2, We won 34-31 (5 points)
Favored by 15 over Coastal, won by 19
ULL favored by 2, we won by 10
Favored by 15.5 over ULL. Won by 45
Favored by 27.5 over South Ala. WON By 27
Favored by 14 over GaSo, lost by 3
USC favored by 7, we won by 3
Favored by 15 over GaSt, won by 29
Favored by 28.5 over TexSt, won by 22
Favored by 11.5 over Troy, won by 35

The South Al game was the only game where the Spread was within a FG of the Actual Score.

We are 8-4 against the spread this year.

On the Over/Under only 4 of 12 games (33%) were within a FG of the Actual (ETSU, GaSo, TexSt, Troy)



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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:17 pm

WASU 93 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:59 pm
yosef69 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:39 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:37 pm
Unless you are actually putting real money on the game who cares what the spread is? And why worry simply because we are ONLY favored by 3.5 or even 6 points? Vegas doesn’t dictate anything. We own La.
Because they're usually shockingly accurate?
Actually, they are only amazingly accurate when it stands out that they nailed a line: (like the Northwestern/UMass game this year)

This year:
APP favored by 33 over ETSU (closing line). We won 42-7 (covered by 6)
APP favored by 22.5 over UNCC. We won 56-41 (failed to cover by 7.5)
UNC favored by 2, We won 34-31 (5 points)
Favored by 15 over Coastal, won by 19
ULL favored by 2, we won by 10
Favored by 15.5 over ULL. Won by 45
Favored by 27.5 over South Ala. WON By 27
Favored by 14 over GaSo, lost by 3
USC favored by 7, we won by 3
Favored by 15 over GaSt, won by 29
Favored by 28.5 over TexSt, won by 22
Favored by 11.5 over Troy, won by 35

The South Al game was the only game where the Spread was within a FG of the Actual Score.

We are 8-4 against the spread this year.

On the Over/Under only 4 of 12 games (33%) were within a FG of the Actual (ETSU, GaSo, TexSt, Troy)
I was about to say the same ting. The line is accurate sometimes but they are off as well. Based on who is favored we were suppose to go 9-3. We went 11-1. I hope we beat the spread by a good bit. It would be a really good win, especially since it is difficult to beat a team twice in the same year.



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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:24 pm

AppStFan1 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:17 pm
WASU 93 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:59 pm
yosef69 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:39 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:37 pm
Unless you are actually putting real money on the game who cares what the spread is? And why worry simply because we are ONLY favored by 3.5 or even 6 points? Vegas doesn’t dictate anything. We own La.
Because they're usually shockingly accurate?
Actually, they are only amazingly accurate when it stands out that they nailed a line: (like the Northwestern/UMass game this year)

This year:
APP favored by 33 over ETSU (closing line). We won 42-7 (covered by 6)
APP favored by 22.5 over UNCC. We won 56-41 (failed to cover by 7.5)
UNC favored by 2, We won 34-31 (5 points)
Favored by 15 over Coastal, won by 19
ULL favored by 2, we won by 10
Favored by 15.5 over ULL. Won by 45
Favored by 27.5 over South Ala. WON By 27
Favored by 14 over GaSo, lost by 3
USC favored by 7, we won by 3
Favored by 15 over GaSt, won by 29
Favored by 28.5 over TexSt, won by 22
Favored by 11.5 over Troy, won by 35

The South Al game was the only game where the Spread was within a FG of the Actual Score.

We are 8-4 against the spread this year.

On the Over/Under only 4 of 12 games (33%) were within a FG of the Actual (ETSU, GaSo, TexSt, Troy)
I was about to say the same ting. The line is accurate sometimes but they are off as well. Based on who is favored we were suppose to go 9-3. We went 11-1. I hope we beat the spread by a good bit. It would be a really good win, especially since it is difficult to beat a team twice in the same year.
Thanks for grabbing those results. As I suspected NOT shockingly accurate. If anyone worries about a game we are in when a dog or gets too cocky when we are prohibitive favorites your not watching us play. I personally couldn’t care less what the line is.



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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by AppSt94 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:02 am

The accuracy of the line is not measure by the outcome of the actual game, rather if the money is equal for both sides. Lines are set to draw equal action for both teams. The public moves the line first and then the smart money moves it again as the game gets closer. At least that is how it was explained to me.



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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by Black Saturday » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:01 pm



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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by WASU 93 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:44 pm

AppSt94 wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:02 am
The accuracy of the line is not measure by the outcome of the actual game, rather if the money is equal for both sides. Lines are set to draw equal action for both teams. The public moves the line first and then the smart money moves it again as the game gets closer. At least that is how it was explained to me.
That is correct. The sports book would prefer to have equal money on both sides. The sports book usually takes a 10% commission (the juice) from the win. So, they keep all of the losses and 10% of the wins. When the line moves, the public is betting heavy on one side of the line, so the book moves the line to “even out” the money, if possible.
If the line moved from -3.5 to -6, there was a lot of money being placed on the favorite (APP), so the books moved the line to try to get more money on ULL.



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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by AppSt94 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:52 pm

WASU 93 wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:44 pm
AppSt94 wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:02 am
The accuracy of the line is not measure by the outcome of the actual game, rather if the money is equal for both sides. Lines are set to draw equal action for both teams. The public moves the line first and then the smart money moves it again as the game gets closer. At least that is how it was explained to me.
That is correct. The sports book would prefer to have equal money on both sides. The sports book usually takes a 10% commission (the juice) from the win. So, they keep all of the losses and 10% of the wins. When the line moves, the public is betting heavy on one side of the line, so the book moves the line to “even out” the money, if possible.
If the line moved from -3.5 to -6, there was a lot of money being placed on the favorite (APP), so the books moved the line to try to get more money on ULL.
I may be wrong, but I believe it takes about $500,000 in wagers to move the line a point.



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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by diehardapp18 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:15 pm

Yeah, had I known it opened at 3.5 I would have jumped all over that. Still think we cover 6.5 but not quite as confident for sure.



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Re: APP -3.5

Unread post by appstatealum » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:47 pm

AppSt94 nailed it. Depending on the weather forecast, I expect the line to close at a spread closer to 10.


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