Way too early top 25

[InFor6More]

Of course it will depend on how these other bowls shake out but where do you all think we land on Mark Schlabach’s Way Too Early Top 25? Getting on that list and remaining on the national radar throughout the off season is the next step forward for our program and will give a big boost to our recruiting.

[/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09]

The nice thing is Boise got destroyed, so we definitely jump them. I think Penn State beats Memphis, we should jump them. Iowa faces USC who tends to do well in bowl games, I think they lose. Auburn plays Minnesota... Auburn win we jump Minnesota. If Minnesota wins I would hope a 4 loss team would not be ahead of a one loss team with a decent resume. Same to be said about Michigan should they lose to Bama. I think 15th would be a realistic number. Which the combination of finishing that high and returning all but Victor next year on offense, I could see us starting in the top 25 next year. Evans might leave too, but we're loaded at RB.

[Appstrong]

Maybe I'm pessimistic, but 19th is probably where we will land at best with all the P5 bias. I'll hope for better, but temper my expectations. I look forward to our program making believers out of more of the voters next season.

[ah59396]

Cincy and Navy may jump us with convincing wins over Boston College and Kansas State respectively.

I still think when the dust settles we finish somewhere between 15-17.

[appstatealum]

15-20 range. Too many factors and we didn't exactly play our best against UAB

[citroknight]

15-20 depending on how the dust settles with the teams in that range currently.

[AppinVA]

I don’t care about a number as much as I want us to be the top ranked G5 when the dust settles. I know that means pulling against Memphis in the NY6 game, which is something I’ve never done, but it has to be done.

[AppStFan1]

15-20 range. Too many factors and we didn't exactly play our best against UAB

Keep in mind Washington deserves to enter the rankings. Will they pass us or just land around 22-25? There are some teams receiving votes who play very good opponents that if they pull the upset they could possibly pass us. We really needed to win by 24-30 for me to say that other results won't matter as much and we slot up for every team that loses in the 15-19 range. However, we could get passed by a couple other teams.

We will be 19 worst case but I would say 17 is the absolutely best case and I don't know if I would project that to happen.

One thing we have going in our favor is voters know that bowls can be weird at times. Lots of top 25 teams lose games like these when they should not. A lot depends on matchup, mind set of the teams, and do any key players for a team sit out.

[AppStFan1]

I don’t care about a number as much as I want us to be the top ranked G5 when the dust settles. I know that means pulling against Memphis in the NY6 game, which is something I’ve never done, but it has to be done.

It won't be a bad thing if they win big. Their QB may decide to go pro or transfer to FSU with his coach. If that happened we would 100% be the preseason top G5 team in 2020. Rankings then won't matter week to week until November. All we have to do is win and look good and we will finish as highest ranked team next year if we enter the season as the preseason top G5 team.

[Yosef]

I wish I could be as optimistic as most of you seem to be. I think we will either be on the cusp at 23 to 25 or not even in at all. These things reset seemingly every year to keep the P5 teams up there.

[ah59396]

I wish I could be as optimistic as most of you seem to be. I think we will either be on the cusp at 23 to 25 or not even in at all. These things reset seemingly every year to keep the P5 teams up there.

I think I may have misunderstood this thread then.

If we are talking 2020 preseason top 25, I agree with you. We will not be ranked preseason.

[AppStFan1]

I wish I could be as optimistic as most of you seem to be. I think we will either be on the cusp at 23 to 25 or not even in at all. These things reset seemingly every year to keep the P5 teams up there.

I agree we probably won't be ranked in the top 20 in the preseason but I don't think anyone from G5 will be preseason top 20 is why I feel we could possibly be highest rated. I don't think we will be for sure though. If Memphis wins big and they don't lose anyone early to the NFL then they probably will be. The good news is they don't have a P5 game like we do. They play Purdue. We have Wake Forest and Wisconsin. Memphis will likely lose 1 game next year. If both are close in preseason and we go 13-0 while they go 12-1 or 11-2 we should then be ahead of them. We are very lucky we have 2 good P5s on schedule next year or else I would say we have no shot.

[NeersBy90]

I wish I could be as optimistic as most of you seem to be. I think we will either be on the cusp at 23 to 25 or not even in at all. These things reset seemingly every year to keep the P5 teams up there.

I think I may have misunderstood this thread then.

If we are talking 2020 preseason top 25, I agree with you. We will not be ranked preseason.

My thoughts exactly. Was the original post about the final AP poll after all the bowls, or the preseason rankings next year. I think as high as 15 to end this year and maybe back 23-unranked to start next year.

[ah59396]

Just for some historical perspective:


2018 Final Rankings for G5 teams:


UCF - 11
Fresno State - 18
Army - 19
Utah State - 22
Boise State - 23
Cincy - 24

2019 Preseason AP Poll for G5 teams:

UCF - 17


We actually started with 5 votes this preseason after finishing right outside the top 25 last year.

If I had to guess we will start the preseason at 25 or receiving votes right outside.

Wins against Morgan State and Wake will push us clean into the top 25. Possibly top 20 for our matchup against Wisconsin. Oooo doggy.

[AppStFan1]

Just for some historical perspective:


2018 Final Rankings for G5 teams:


UCF - 11
Fresno State - 18
Army - 19
Utah State - 22
Boise State - 23
Cincy - 24

2019 Preseason AP Poll for G5 teams:

UCF - 17


We actually started with 5 votes this preseason after finishing right outside the top 25 last year.

If I had to guess we will start the preseason at 25 or receiving votes right outside.

Wins against Morgan State and Wake will push us clean into the top 25. Possibly top 20 for our matchup against Wisconsin. Oooo doggy.

I had looked at that a while back and I agree. UCF lost a lot of key players and we don't so I could see 23-25 but it would not surprise me at all if we were 26-29 range. G5 teams don't get the same love in the preseason as they do in the postseason. The reality is that there are really 1-3 G5 teams who belong in the top 25 usually.

I'm not sure how many starters return for the following schools but if any of them return say 15 or more starters and win their bowl games they all will and should be ranked ahead of any G5 team in the preseason.

Texas A&M 7-5
Southern California 8-4
Kansas State 8-4
Virginia 9-4
Oklahoma State 8-4
Virginia Tech 8-4
Texas 7-5
Iowa State 7-5
Louisville 7-5
Wake Forest 8-4

Louisville should be a preseason top 25 team for sure but other than them I'm not entirely sure what all returns. Some of these schools will lost some players early to the NFL.

One player who announced he is coming back at Wake Forest in DE Carlos Basham is a big time returnee. He is a likely top 50 draft pick if he had decided to come out. There will be a lot of first round buzz on him in the preseason if he indeed decides to stay in school and doesn't change his mind late.

[appstatealum]

Just for some historical perspective:


2018 Final Rankings for G5 teams:


UCF - 11
Fresno State - 18
Army - 19
Utah State - 22
Boise State - 23
Cincy - 24

2019 Preseason AP Poll for G5 teams:

UCF - 17


We actually started with 5 votes this preseason after finishing right outside the top 25 last year.

If I had to guess we will start the preseason at 25 or receiving votes right outside.

Wins against Morgan State and Wake will push us clean into the top 25. Possibly top 20 for our matchup against Wisconsin. Oooo doggy.

I had looked at that a while back and I agree. UCF lost a lot of key players and we don't so I could see 23-25 but it would not surprise me at all if we were 26-29 range. G5 teams don't get the same love in the preseason as they do in the postseason. The reality is that there are really 1-3 G5 teams who belong in the top 25 usually.

I'm not sure how many starters return for the following schools but if any of them return say 15 or more starters and win their bowl games they all will and should be ranked ahead of any G5 team in the preseason.

Texas A&M 7-5
Southern California 8-4
Kansas State 8-4
Virginia 9-4
Oklahoma State 8-4
Virginia Tech 8-4
Texas 7-5
Iowa State 7-5
Louisville 7-5
Wake Forest 8-4

Louisville should be a preseason top 25 team for sure but other than them I'm not entirely sure what all returns. Some of these schools will lost some players early to the NFL.

One player who announced he is coming back at Wake Forest in DE Carlos Basham is a big time returnee. He is a likely top 50 draft pick if he had decided to come out. There will be a lot of first round buzz on him in the preseason if he indeed decides to stay in school and doesn't change his mind late.

I'd be shocked if Louisville was a preseason top 25, TBH.

I think we will start off in the Top 25 given our recent 2 year record, but fully expect the bar to be high for us to stay there.

[citroknight]

I had looked at that a while back and I agree. UCF lost a lot of key players and we don't so I could see 23-25 but it would not surprise me at all if we were 26-29 range. G5 teams don't get the same love in the preseason as they do in the postseason. The reality is that there are really 1-3 G5 teams who belong in the top 25 usually.

I'm not sure how many starters return for the following schools but if any of them return say 15 or more starters and win their bowl games they all will and should be ranked ahead of any G5 team in the preseason.

Texas A&M 7-5
Southern California 8-4
Kansas State 8-4
Virginia 9-4
Oklahoma State 8-4
Virginia Tech 8-4
Texas 7-5
Iowa State 7-5
Louisville 7-5
Wake Forest 8-4

You touch on it a bit but the name brand plays as big of a role, if not bigger sometimes, than on field results do for getting ranked in the preseason. All it took was hype and the brand name for Nebraska to get ranked going into 2019 yet they ended up 5-7.

I have just a small sample from UCF's experience that shows they really put an emphasis on consistency and establishing your brand.

I'll add onto ah59396's example.

After the 2017 season UCF finished 6 in the AP poll. Here's how they looked going into 2018:

Positives: won the big game, star QB returning
Negatives: HC leaving with entire staff

2018 pre-season rank - 21

After the 2018 seasons UCF finished 11 in the AP poll. Going into 2019:

Positives: HC and staff returning, extended win streak before the bowl
Negatives: lost the big game, star QB injured and out for at least a year if not permanently

2019 pre-season rank - 17

So despite 2018 not being as magical as 2017 and Milton going down, just sticking around in the conversation helped UCF somehow start off the 2019 pre-season rankings better than 2018.

Which is a positive I hope you'll all take. Although I know the majority of you guys are rightfully pleased with the historic season App State had. But for those that feel like it was a missed opportunity, I'd consider it building up for the next opportunity.

[appaneer1984]

I wish I could be as optimistic as most of you seem to be. I think we will either be on the cusp at 23 to 25 or not even in at all. These things reset seemingly every year to keep the P5 teams up there.

I remember in the Butch Davis years, Crapel Hill was ranked several times in the pre-season and they'd crap the bed within the first two games (usually the first) and out they'd go until the next pre-season rankings came out.

[ah59396]

I had looked at that a while back and I agree. UCF lost a lot of key players and we don't so I could see 23-25 but it would not surprise me at all if we were 26-29 range. G5 teams don't get the same love in the preseason as they do in the postseason. The reality is that there are really 1-3 G5 teams who belong in the top 25 usually.

I'm not sure how many starters return for the following schools but if any of them return say 15 or more starters and win their bowl games they all will and should be ranked ahead of any G5 team in the preseason.

Texas A&M 7-5
Southern California 8-4
Kansas State 8-4
Virginia 9-4
Oklahoma State 8-4
Virginia Tech 8-4
Texas 7-5
Iowa State 7-5
Louisville 7-5
Wake Forest 8-4

You touch on it a bit but the name brand plays as big of a role, if not bigger sometimes, than on field results do for getting ranked in the preseason. All it took was hype and the brand name for Nebraska to get ranked going into 2019 yet they ended up 5-7.

I have just a small sample from UCF's experience that shows they really put an emphasis on consistency and establishing your brand.

I'll add onto ah59396's example.

After the 2017 season UCF finished 6 in the AP poll. Here's how they looked going into 2018:

Positives: won the big game, star QB returning
Negatives: HC leaving with entire staff

2018 pre-season rank - 21

After the 2018 seasons UCF finished 11 in the AP poll. Going into 2019:

Positives: HC and staff returning, extended win streak before the bowl
Negatives: lost the big game, star QB injured and out for at least a year if not permanently

2019 pre-season rank - 17

So despite 2018 not being as magical as 2017 and Milton going down, just sticking around in the conversation helped UCF somehow start off the 2019 pre-season rankings better than 2018.

Which is a positive I hope you'll all take. Although I know the majority of you guys are rightfully pleased with the historic season App State had. But for those that feel like it was a missed opportunity, I'd consider it building up for the next opportunity.

UCF sure got the shaft a couple of those years. Glad you guys paved the road for the rest of us! Thanks citro.

[Saint3333]

App will be in the top 30 preseason and ranked if we beat Wake in the second week.