roachgone wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:55 pm
Ok how about these stats. 175 persons have died in the age 5 thru 24 age group. Roughly 140,000 have died from or “with” covid. That death rate for school age kids is .125%. So survival rate is 99.88% . Is that done correctly enough for you?If teachers have underlying health conditions don’t teach or wear a mask. All I’m saying is closing down schools is going to have long term unintended consequences. Most pediatricians agree. My daughter in law sister is 25 and recently got the virus. She had a 101 fever for two days and a dry cough for about four days and that was it. By the way she lives in Alabama and her parents who live in Greensboro got a certified letter from the Guildford co health department saying that they had received info of her illness and are counting her as a Guildford county covid cast. So she was counted twice. Good grief the stats for this are so screwed up and yet that is what decisions are being based on. Guess we just disagree. If you think shutting down schools for a survival rate of 99.88 % makes sense then we just have to agree to disagree.
No that's not done correctly enough. Now you are dividing the total number of deaths from the age 5-24 group into the total number of reported COVID deaths. That isn't telling you the survival rate of young people with COVID. That's telling you the distribution of victims. To get a true case fatality rate of ages 5-24, you'd want to divide the total number of reported deaths of the group by the total number of known infections from that group.
I would agree that given what we currently know, mortality rate for young people, especially with no underlying health problems, is likely very low. But there is still a concern that it could create many vectors which infect parents, teachers, grandparents, etc. You argue that teachers who are worried should stay home. That sounds very similar to arguments I hear saying that we should just keep the at-risk isolated and live our lives. The problem with that is if we allow the virus to run rampant, it will eventually affect people who need to isolate. Even if you lock down rest homes, the workers still have to go home. If the virus runs rampant, one will eventually bring it into the facility and you'll have yet another site that ends up killing dozens of elderly people.
I also agree closing schools for long periods will have adverse consequences. It's a very challenging decision especially given our current lack of initiative and support in controlling the virus. I think it's important to open schools but I'm not confident the current environment will allow that to be safe enough especially in certain areas of the country.
