ah59396 wrote: ↑
Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:17 pm
citroknight wrote: ↑
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:46 pm
2020 is a wild year so why not?!
But it will be tough since right now (before the B1G and others jump back) the AAC's top 3 are all ranked above the SBC top 2. And all 3 play each other in the regular season and with no divisions, the best two will rematch in the title game. Back of the napkin math, assuming the champ doesn't have surprise losses to someone outside of the top 3, the AAC champ will have gone either 2-1 or 3-0 against two ranked AAC teams. Seems unlikely for the SBC champ to jump that. Especially if it's 3-0.
Based on the rankings today, I think these are the likely outcomes:
1. Let’s keep it simple and say we are only talking about Louisiana, App State, UCF, Memphis, Cincinnati. These are the only G5 teams currently ranked.
2. It’s impossible for all 5 to go undefeated, but if they could, Cincinnati would remain top ranked and go. Hence, they are in the drivers seat.
3. If any of UCF, Cincinnati or Memphis goes undefeated, they get the bid regardless of what the SunBelt does.
4. If UCF, Cincinnati and Memphis all have one loss and App or Louisiana are undefeated, I believe the SunBelt team gets the nod. As you’d have a SunBelt team with at least one ranked win (or two if Louisiana beat App l, assuming we remain ranked when we see them)
5. As with the “all undefeated scenario”, if all have 1 loss, an AAC team would get the bid.
I agree for most part but I think #4 is not entirely right. If the AAC Champ has 1 loss to a ranked team and 2 wins over ranked teams then they would get the NY6 nod over an undefeated SBC team. If the AAC Champ has 1 loss to an unranked team and the SBC Champ is undefeated, then I think we could actually get the nod.
It is still too early because a lot can happen but really we need 3 things to happen to feel good at the end of the year.
1. App goes undefeated and we are Louisiana's only loss.
2. AAC Champ loses to an unranked team and enough of the league to drop off that only 2 are ranked and 1 receiving votes.
3. We average double digit margin over the season.
The SBC got a lot of respect last weekend and just needs to keep it up. If the league falls apart in OOC play this weekend then people will just say the SBC got lucky. We really need our league rivals to keep it up. It would be interesting to hear what the committee members are thinking if the SBC continues to dominate and the AAC all beats up on each other with no undefeated teams and a just a couple with less than 2 losses. If the AAC has 3 ranked teams and 1-2 more receiving votes while say App is ranked and Louisiana is just getting a couple votes while the rest of the SBC has 3+ losses then I am not sure the SBC will have a strong enough SOS to get us in.
I saw this snippet on Fansided and they think we have no shot to surpass the AAC. We need to really show these teams and lay the wood on everyone we play.
5. Sun Belt (Group of 5, 6-5 overall)
What a time to be alive if you’re a fan of Sun Belt Football. Never before has this Group of 5 conference gotten so much love. Though not all of their teams won over the weekend, we have to tip our cap to the marvelous jobs put forth by the Arkansas State Red Wolves, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns for sticking it to their Big 12 counterparts in Week 2.
Louisiana upset the No. 23 Iowa State Cyclones in Ames. Arkansas State shocked the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan. Though the Kansas Jayhawks made a late charge, Coastal Carolina survived #KansasAfterDark with a road victory in Lawrence. With Louisiana coming in at No. 19 and the Appalachian State Mountaineers coming in at No. 23, things are looking pretty good.
4. AAC (Group of 5, 4-1 overall)
Though unlikely, there may come a time where the AAC is threatened by the Sun Belt for the best conference out of the Group of 5. It’s about as likely to happen as the AAC usurping the Big 12 for the No. 3 spot on these rankings. The chances are slim to none, but the AAC might be better than the Pac-12 at this time if both conferences were choosing to play ball this fall.
With the South Florida Bulls and the Tulane Green Wave notching victories over teams they should have beaten anyway in The Citadel Bulldogs and the South Alabama Jaguars anyway, we do need to recognize the AAC has as many ranked teams in the latest AP Top 25 Poll as does the Big 12: The No. 13 Cincinnati Bearcats, No. 14 UCF Knights and the No. 16 Memphis Tigers.