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2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 12:03 pm
by appdaze
So you're telling me there's a chance!


Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 12:42 pm
by Yosef84
Seems awfully low but maybe it will keep the guys motivated (as if that is needed).

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 1:52 pm
by hapapp
JMU 21.1%

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:22 pm
by AppDub
hapapp wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 1:52 pm
JMU 21.1%
That one is laughable.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:25 pm
by ah59396
Makes sense to me. While we can potentially afford a Clemson loss, it would hurt our chances quite a bit. A loss to any of Liberty, JMU, Marshall, Stink, Coastal removed us entirely from the conversation (unless we upset Clemson).

JMU has a very beatable P4 - UNC.

I will say I think Tulane is overrated on this. They have Kansas State and then Oklahoma coming up. Almost certainly 2 losses. Boise also has Oregon.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:46 pm
by biggie
ah59396 wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:25 pm
Makes sense to me. While we can potentially afford a Clemson loss, it would hurt our chances quite a bit. A loss to any of Liberty, JMU, Marshall, Stink, Coastal removed us entirely from the conversation (unless we upset Clemson).

JMU has a very beatable P4 - UNC.

I will say I think Tulane is overrated on this. They have Kansas State and then Oklahoma coming up. Almost certainly 2 losses. Boise also has Oregon.
JMU will get a sense of Chapel Hill as they play UNCC this weekend.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:48 pm
by AppDub
JMU will lose to us and Coastal. Book it. No way they make the playoffs. Just more propaganda to inflate their already obnoxious fans' egos.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:55 pm
by biggie
Don’t seem like this is looking at future games/matchups just if they won this week?

Right now espn predictor gives us. 70% chance of beating Liberty.
It gives JMU at 60% chance of beating us.

With as much as they lost I still can’t understand the hype.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 3:28 pm
by Black Saturday
App has been given the future performance wins based on past successes lots of times and we didn't live up to the billing either.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 3:48 pm
by AppWyo
appdaze wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 12:03 pm
So you're telling me there's a chance!

We play six of those teams...

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 5:08 pm
by ah59396
ESPN does not seem to be very bullish on us in general. We dropped in the FPI after week 1 and are projected at 7-5.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/f ... s/dir/desc

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 5:58 pm
by EastHallApp
FPI means nothing after one week.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:00 pm
by EastHallApp
ah59396 wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:25 pm
Makes sense to me. While we can potentially afford a Clemson loss, it would hurt our chances quite a bit. A loss to any of Liberty, JMU, Marshall, Stink, Coastal removed us entirely from the conversation (unless we upset Clemson).

JMU has a very beatable P4 - UNC.

I will say I think Tulane is overrated on this. They have Kansas State and then Oklahoma coming up. Almost certainly 2 losses. Boise also has Oregon.
Disagree that we would be entirely out of it with two losses. Would need help, sure. But there will be years in which the G5 representative has two losses.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:11 pm
by BambooRdApp
EastHallApp wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:00 pm
ah59396 wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:25 pm
Makes sense to me. While we can potentially afford a Clemson loss, it would hurt our chances quite a bit. A loss to any of Liberty, JMU, Marshall, Stink, Coastal removed us entirely from the conversation (unless we upset Clemson).

JMU has a very beatable P4 - UNC.

I will say I think Tulane is overrated on this. They have Kansas State and then Oklahoma coming up. Almost certainly 2 losses. Boise also has Oregon.
Disagree that we would be entirely out of it with two losses. Would need help, sure. But there will be years in which the G5 representative has two losses.
I do not see jmwho beating UNC. UNC's new DC is better than the last DC. Just my opinion.
I also believe we could get in with two losses but need help from teams ahead of us in ranking as of now. I do believe we cannot lose to ECU and Liberty as it gives impression sun belt is not as good as the conference those teams are in.
With that said, we ain't losing!!

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 7:01 pm
by AtlAppMan
ah59396 wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 5:08 pm
ESPN does not seem to be very bullish on us in general. We dropped in the FPI after week 1 and are projected at 7-5.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/f ... s/dir/desc
Let's repeat that statement.

App DROPPED 9 positions this week due to a FPI perceived WEAK performance against ETSU. JMU JUMPED 10 positions due to FPI perceived good performance against UNCC.

I keep telling everyone we have to beat the crap out of the weaker teams on our schedule to raise in the ratings, both computer and people polls. Why do you think 4 SEC teams won by OVER 60 pts this past weekend? Because they know how the system works. We better wake up or we will be sitting in the corner at the end of the season whether we win the SBC or not.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 7:14 pm
by appdaze
EastHallApp wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 5:58 pm
FPI means nothing after one week.
I disagree. The mouse runs college football. A slow start in FPI can leave a bad perception throughout the year to the money movers and could leave us out of the playoffs if we mange to be a top 5 G5 team and could get the nod. We have to impress the money movers and the gamblers with big point spread wins that make it appear on paper that we have a shot at upsetting someone in the playoffs thus appeasing the gamblers. So yes, even early season FPI matters in today's college football world.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 7:24 pm
by Bigdaddyg1
FSU might drop to 0.0000% tonight

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 7:58 pm
by HkyMtneer
AtlAppMan wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 7:01 pm
ah59396 wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 5:08 pm
ESPN does not seem to be very bullish on us in general. We dropped in the FPI after week 1 and are projected at 7-5.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/f ... s/dir/desc
Let's repeat that statement.

App DROPPED 9 positions this week due to a FPI perceived WEAK performance against ETSU. JMU JUMPED 10 positions due to FPI perceived good performance against UNCC.

I keep telling everyone we have to beat the crap out of the weaker teams on our schedule to raise in the ratings, both computer and people polls. Why do you think 4 SEC teams won by OVER 60 pts this past weekend? Because they know how the system works. We better wake up or we will be sitting in the corner at the end of the season whether we win the SBC or not.
I agree completely. Sportsmanship is out the window, especially if you’re a team with a legitimate shot at the CFP. The way this game will be played is a license to obliterate every team you can. If we could’ve thrown a hundred on ETSU then we should have…of course, we didn’t have the horses to do that on Saturday. But, if we did, I like to think that we wouldn’t have wasted one second of clock or not went for it on every 4th down.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 8:10 pm
by NattyBumppo'sRevenge
SIM 13 tells me all I need to know.

Re: 2.9% Playoff chance

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 8:17 pm
by t4pizza
AtlAppMan wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 7:01 pm
ah59396 wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2024 5:08 pm
ESPN does not seem to be very bullish on us in general. We dropped in the FPI after week 1 and are projected at 7-5.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/f ... s/dir/desc
Let's repeat that statement.

App DROPPED 9 positions this week due to a FPI perceived WEAK performance against ETSU. JMU JUMPED 10 positions due to FPI perceived good performance against UNCC.

I keep telling everyone we have to beat the crap out of the weaker teams on our schedule to raise in the ratings, both computer and people polls. Why do you think 4 SEC teams won by OVER 60 pts this past weekend? Because they know how the system works. We better wake up or we will be sitting in the corner at the end of the season whether we win the SBC or not.
You could not be more correct in your position. We should have beat ETSU by much more. Worst part is that I think we were trying to.