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Vegas line for Southern Miss

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by AppSt94 » Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:50 am

The line is down to 2.5. The over/under is out and it is at 61. That seems pretty high considering USM is averaging 12.5 ppt and scored 26 against Alcorn St.. I think the under is a strong play in this one.

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by ASUMountaineer » Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:37 am

AppSt94 wrote:The line is down to 2.5. The over/under is out and it is at 61. That seems pretty high considering USM is averaging 12.5 ppt and scored 26 against Alcorn St.. I think the under is a strong play in this one.
Agreed on the under. Not surprised by the small movement in the line. This game screams toss up, and the under seems to be the best play here.
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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by NewApp » Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:42 am

Black Saturday wrote:
sixtoes9134 wrote:I watched a good bit of their game against Alabama, hard to judge, but they do look like they have some big, talented guys.

On a related note, watching the way the Sun Belt performed Saturday, Georgia Southern may be the best team in the conference.
,

After 3 weeks, It's real, as much as I hate to see it and say it, TheGnats had chances to BEAT, 2 ACC-Power Five programs, we got our doors blown off by a mediocre Michigan team and rolled a non-scholly.

However, in my opinion, a mediocre Michigan team may be better than the ACC-Power Five programs. No way anyone could say for absolute certain without there being head to head games. :|
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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by ASUPATCH » Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:42 am

ASUMountaineer wrote:
AppSt94 wrote:The line is down to 2.5. The over/under is out and it is at 61. That seems pretty high considering USM is averaging 12.5 ppt and scored 26 against Alcorn St.. I think the under is a strong play in this one.
Agreed on the under. Not surprised by the small movement in the line. This game screams toss up, and the under seems to be the best play here.

The over/under to me depend on which of our QB's is getting the majority of the snaps.
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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by ASUMountaineer » Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:54 am

ASUPATCH wrote:
ASUMountaineer wrote:
AppSt94 wrote:The line is down to 2.5. The over/under is out and it is at 61. That seems pretty high considering USM is averaging 12.5 ppt and scored 26 against Alcorn St.. I think the under is a strong play in this one.
Agreed on the under. Not surprised by the small movement in the line. This game screams toss up, and the under seems to be the best play here.

The over/under to me depend on which of our QB's is getting the majority of the snaps.
Ehh, I know the Lamb train is rolling, but I don't see it making much of a difference in this game. Especially as both will be getting snaps.
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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by ASUPATCH » Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:13 pm

ASUMountaineer wrote:
ASUPATCH wrote:
ASUMountaineer wrote:
AppSt94 wrote:The line is down to 2.5. The over/under is out and it is at 61. That seems pretty high considering USM is averaging 12.5 ppt and scored 26 against Alcorn St.. I think the under is a strong play in this one.
Agreed on the under. Not surprised by the small movement in the line. This game screams toss up, and the under seems to be the best play here.

The over/under to me depend on which of our QB's is getting the majority of the snaps.
Ehh, I know the Lamb train is rolling, but I don't see it making much of a difference in this game. Especially as both will be getting snaps.
Southern Miss has shown to struggle against the run. Specifically they have given up over 220+ yard rushing to QB's. One of our QBs has a 12.3 yard per carry average while the other has a -1.3 yard average. Last year Kam ran 91 times for 158 yards a whopping 1.7 per attempt. He has suspect arm strength with little to no athleticism to make up for it. So to me it makes all the difference.
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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by ASUMountaineer » Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:26 pm

ASUPATCH wrote:
ASUMountaineer wrote:
ASUPATCH wrote:
ASUMountaineer wrote:
AppSt94 wrote:The line is down to 2.5. The over/under is out and it is at 61. That seems pretty high considering USM is averaging 12.5 ppt and scored 26 against Alcorn St.. I think the under is a strong play in this one.
Agreed on the under. Not surprised by the small movement in the line. This game screams toss up, and the under seems to be the best play here.

The over/under to me depend on which of our QB's is getting the majority of the snaps.
Ehh, I know the Lamb train is rolling, but I don't see it making much of a difference in this game. Especially as both will be getting snaps.
Southern Miss has shown to struggle against the run. Specifically they have given up over 220+ yard rushing to QB's. One of our QBs has a 12.3 yard per carry average while the other has a -1.3 yard average. Last year Kam ran 91 times for 158 yards a whopping 1.7 per attempt. He has suspect arm strength with little to no athleticism to make up for it. So to me it makes all the difference.
Cox and Upshaw make the difference to me. With our 3rd string QB done for the season and wanting to keep the redshirt on JP...it makes sense to me to not risk running the QB. Call me crazy.

As I said, I know a lot of you guys are on the Lamb train, and that's fine. I just don't see us running the QB a lot regardless of which one plays (both will). I think we'll pound the rock with a heavy dose of Cox and Upshaw and mix in the passing game. I'll defer to the coaches for the gameplan and QB usage--I've never been a coach.
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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by hapapp » Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:46 pm

Certainly won't dispute that Lamb is a better runner than Kam but neither is that great a runner. Lamb's stats are exaggerated by the one long run. Granted that was a great effort on his part and Kam would not likely be able to match that. However, it won't be the ability of the QB's running talents that opens up the game, it will be whether Cox and Upshaw can find the yards.

I've got no problem with either of them being the starting quarterback. Starting Lamb might be a good move as it would give us some insight as to how he looks in the that role as opposed to coming in after the game has essentially been decided. I've yet to be convinced that one is any better than the other. I do think we need to resolve the issue moving forward and settle on a starter but it is a nice situation to have a backup that come in and the team not suffer from the change.

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by AppSt94 » Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:54 pm

hapapp wrote:Certainly won't dispute that Lamb is a better runner than Kam but neither is that great a runner. Lamb's stats are exaggerated by the one long run. Granted that was a great effort on his part and Kam would not likely be able to match that. However, it won't be the ability of the QB's running talents that opens up the game, it will be whether Cox and Upshaw can find the yards.

I've got no problem with either of them being the starting quarterback. Starting Lamb might be a good move as it would give us some insight as to how he looks in the that role as opposed to coming in after the game has essentially been decided. I've yet to be convinced that one is any better than the other. I do think we need to resolve the issue moving forward and settle on a starter but it is a nice situation to have a backup that come in and the team not suffer from the change.
To me. KB and Lamb are QB#1 and #1A. They are interchangeable for the designations. One manages the game and one may add another dimension. I think that we are in a good spot regardless of which one starts. As it was stated in a previous post, I will leave the gameplan and decisions of who plays to the coaches. My only opinion is the KB won the starting job in camp and hasn't done anything to lose it.

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by AppSt94 » Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:58 pm

ASUPATCH wrote:
ASUMountaineer wrote:
AppSt94 wrote:The line is down to 2.5. The over/under is out and it is at 61. That seems pretty high considering USM is averaging 12.5 ppt and scored 26 against Alcorn St.. I think the under is a strong play in this one.
Agreed on the under. Not surprised by the small movement in the line. This game screams toss up, and the under seems to be the best play here.

The over/under to me depend on which of our QB's is getting the majority of the snaps.
I don't think it matters. USM's offense is not much of a threat to score. If they can put up 21 I don't see us putting up 41. It would be nice, but I don't see it.

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by AppSt94 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:09 am

I checked the line this morning and it is down to 1.5. Interestingly, GS has been bet up as a 2.5 point favorite.

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by DoubleA » Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:52 am

Our season starts today. Forget Michigan, forget Campbell, it's on to conference play. Although USM is not a make or break game, we need to establish ourselves today as a fundamentally sound squad to be reckoned with by all opponents. The pieces are there, can we put it together?

Give 'Em Hell!!

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by AtlAppMan » Sat Sep 20, 2014 8:46 am

Latest line is -1

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by NewApp » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:29 am

AtlAppMan wrote:Latest line is -1
You guys will have to excuse me but I'm not familiar with how Vegas lines work. What does -1 mean?
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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by Saint3333 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:02 am

I'd feel better about it if the line were moving the other way.

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by ukappfan » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:22 am

My understanding is that SoMiss at -1 means that they are favored to win by 1 point. Is that correct?

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by AppSt94 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:38 am

NewApp wrote:
AtlAppMan wrote:Latest line is -1
You guys will have to excuse me but I'm not familiar with how Vegas lines work. What does -1 mean?
It means that So Miss is a one point favorite. What that means is if you place a bet taking So Miss then you subtract one point from So Miss point total it is still higher than ASU's point total. If this holds true then you win. Also, the way to tell where the money is being bet is to compare the opening line to the current line. The opening line was So Miss -4. The line being bet down to -1 shows that people have net heavily on ASU. As stated earlier, the line is set to get action on both sides of the wager. Vegas and other sports books don't care who wins because their goal is to make money regardless of the outcome.

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by moehler » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:53 am

got to force the MSU qb into making quick decisions, he doesn't run well, and only has an average arm, but he is smart, makes good decisions, and is not going to do something stupid to hurt his team. If we let him sit in the pocket and go thru his progressions, he will pick us apart with short to medium passes to those big wide receivers, got to change up the looks, bring pressure, and force him to make a great throws, hope that Nate Woody plans to blitz atleast 10-12 times.

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by AppSt94 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:53 am

Saint3333 wrote:I'd feel better about it if the line were moving the other way.
It is moving the right way. It was 4 to open and has been bet down to 1. The money is on ASU. The money line is pretty much even now.

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Re: Vegas line for Southern Miss

Unread post by EastHallApp » Sat Sep 20, 2014 12:47 pm

AppSt94 wrote:
Saint3333 wrote:I'd feel better about it if the line were moving the other way.
It is moving the right way. It was 4 to open and has been bet down to 1. The money is on ASU. The money line is pretty much even now.
Yeah, I'm not a betting man, but my understanding is that when a line moves significantly, more often than not it turns out to be a good thing for the team in whose favor the line is moving. Movement of three points in a week, and a couple of points in just the last day or so, means a lot of money coming in on App.

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