Odds opened at GS -17. They were immediately dropped to.-15.5. The quick drop indicates that the opening line was too high. In my opinion the line is too high. They are still a run heavy team and we look like we can slow their ground game and make them beat us through the air. I liked how we moved the ball last night and if we can punch some of those in for touchdowns then we have an excellent chance to not only cover but when the game outright.

I'm not a gambler but having followed the threads and reading what you and others have posted could it be that the line could start high to get the betting going for 2 teams that haven't been on the radar in Vegas until lately. I would think there would be quite a few gamblers who would lay money on us with that line and then as it goes down more for the other side will bet? Does that make sense or am I off base?

goapps93 wrote:I'm not a gambler but having followed the threads and reading what you and others have posted could it be that the line could start high to get the betting going for 2 teams that haven't been on the radar in Vegas until lately. I would think there would be quite a few gamblers who would lay money on us with that line and then as it goes down more for the other side will bet? Does that make sense or am I off base?

Yes you are correct. That is the purpose of the line.

We've had The Gnats number recently.

However, this year we have a young team and QB that are trying to find an identity and (offensive points, too).

They are playing at home, have plenty of experience, rivalry factor, no problem scoring against all their competition and maybe the revenge on us from last year to boot.

Unknown injuries?

Big Vegas number, but they have thrashed us before in Gnatsboro.

I'll be pulling for APP, of course, if we outright win this year it'll be a shocker in my opinion and make me proud. From all that the Gnats have shown and what APP hasn't shown me on the field so far this season, I'd say The Gumroots probably win.

AppSt94 wrote:Odds opened at GS -17. They were immediately dropped to.-15.5. The quick drop indicates that the opening line was too high. In my opinion the line is too high. They are still a run heavy team and we look like we can slow their ground game and make them beat us through the air. I liked how we moved the ball last night and if we can punch some of those in for touchdowns then we have an excellent chance to not only cover but when the game outright.

I thought it would open around 15. It'll be bet down to about 12 by game day.

AppSt94 wrote:Odds opened at GS -17. They were immediately dropped to.-15.5. The quick drop indicates that the opening line was too high. In my opinion the line is too high. They are still a run heavy team and we look like we can slow their ground game and make them beat us through the air. I liked how we moved the ball last night and if we can punch some of those in for touchdowns then we have an excellent chance to not only cover but when the game outright.

There is a lot that goes into the Vegas line. I think what you are saying is basically correct. To the best of my knowledge betting is not part of FCS football. Maybe there is a book out there that places lines for such things but I don't know about them. The line isn't set based off who the handicapper think is going to win it is set off of who the handicapper think people are going to bet on. As long as the book has equal betting they make money. With that said they do tend to be a pretty good predictor of outcome.

Regular season mid-major football the lines are set and moved basically for serious or "professional" gamblers. A game like Florida State vs Clemson is going to attract a lot of casual or amateur gamblers. So people that are not experts will bet heavy and affect the line. So for high profile games I only look at the opening line and pay no attention to the change. The same with the NFL I only look at where the line opens.

For lower profile games like ours I do look at how the lines move because they could reflect serious gamblers keeping the vegas handicappers in check.

A lot has gone into this GS-17 pnt open. GS is playing at home on a short week. Normally Vegas gives someone 3 points just for home field advantage if a place is know for being a really tough place to play (like Seattle in the NFL right now) Vegas might give them as many at 4.5 pnts. For a place like GS or Southern Miss (or us) Vegas would give 3 pnts. We are coming off an emotional loss from a long travel night game. GS has momentum winning their first conference game. They also gathered national attention because of their close game with Georgia Tech. With all that said I doubt many gamblers are accounting for our history in the FCS, that we always play GS close and have pulled several upsets in the last few years. Also serious gamblers would tell you to be very careful to bet on a college team with a recent big victory. College teams have trouble managing the emotion and have trouble responding to big victories and rarely line up 2 big victory in a row. We've seen this this year with VT and Ohio State. VT goes and give a big win and then heads home and lays a big egg to ECU.

I think we will safely cover the line. I think we are a better team than the country is giving us credit right now. I doubt we will win but will be very happy if we do. You never know until we play the game. If I personally set the line I would say GS -10.

Stupid question, but I don't bet. If you place a bet early, say 15 points at the time, does your bet stay that way, or if the line goes down is your bet dependent on what it closes at. I take it that it stays at what you place it at, but never have been sure.

I am guessing it is the same as parimutual betting I have done in Florida. I don't bet on people except Jai ala, and most of those have closed shop. But in horses as the bets come in the line moves and the payout is based on the odds at the time the betting is stopped for the race.

GoApps70 wrote:Stupid question, but I don't bet. If you place a bet early, say 15 points at the time, does your bet stay that way, or if the line goes down is your bet dependent on what it closes at. I take it that it stays at what you place it at, but never have been sure.

Your bet keeps the line position when you make it. If it's at -15 when you place it that's your spread. There are hedge opportunities on lines with lots of movement.

GoApps70 wrote:Stupid question, but I don't bet. If you place a bet early, say 15 points at the time, does your bet stay that way, or if the line goes down is your bet dependent on what it closes at. I take it that it stays at what you place it at, but never have been sure.

Yes. If you make a bet at a certain number and it goes down then yes you are locked in. Sometimes if the line changes enough you can make another bet and win twice. There is some value to betting early as there is value before the line gets action.

McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:I am guessing it is the same as parimutual betting I have done in Florida. I don't bet on people except Jai ala, and most of those have closed shop. But in horses as the bets come in the line moves and the payout is based on the odds at the time the betting is stopped for the race.

I don't wager on the ponies but I have cashed a 12k ticket on the dogs before. It was a $6 bet.

spong wrote:

AppSt94 wrote:Odds opened at GS -17. They were immediately dropped to.-15.5. The quick drop indicates that the opening line was too high. In my opinion the line is too high. They are still a run heavy team and we look like we can slow their ground game and make them beat us through the air. I liked how we moved the ball last night and if we can punch some of those in for touchdowns then we have an excellent chance to not only cover but when the game outright.

There is a lot that goes into the Vegas line. I think what you are saying is basically correct. To the best of my knowledge betting is not part of FCS football. Maybe there is a book out there that places lines for such things but I don't know about them. The line isn't set based off who the handicapper think is going to win it is set off of who the handicapper think people are going to bet on. As long as the book has equal betting they make money. With that said they do tend to be a pretty good predictor of outcome.

Regular season mid-major football the lines are set and moved basically for serious or "professional" gamblers. A game like Florida State vs Clemson is going to attract a lot of casual or amateur gamblers. So people that are not experts will bet heavy and affect the line. So for high profile games I only look at the opening line and pay no attention to the change. The same with the NFL I only look at where the line opens.

For lower profile games like ours I do look at how the lines move because they could reflect serious gamblers keeping the vegas handicappers in check.

A lot has gone into this GS-17 pnt open. GS is playing at home on a short week. Normally Vegas gives someone 3 points just for home field advantage if a place is know for being a really tough place to play (like Seattle in the NFL right now) Vegas might give them as many at 4.5 pnts. For a place like GS or Southern Miss (or us) Vegas would give 3 pnts. We are coming off an emotional loss from a long travel night game. GS has momentum winning their first conference game. They also gathered national attention because of their close game with Georgia Tech. With all that said I doubt many gamblers are accounting for our history in the FCS, that we always play GS close and have pulled several upsets in the last few years. Also serious gamblers would tell you to be very careful to bet on a college team with a recent big victory. College teams have trouble managing the emotion and have trouble responding to big victories and rarely line up 2 big victory in a row. We've seen this this year with VT and Ohio State. VT goes and give a big win and then heads home and lays a big egg to ECU.

I think we will safely cover the line. I think we are a better team than the country is giving us credit right now. I doubt we will win but will be very happy if we do. You never know until we play the game. If I personally set the line I would say GS -10.

Yes, I simplified it because I am on an iPad but that is what I meant. When I gambled I shied away from the marquee matchups. I did quite well with MAC games, particularly with the overs. Another way I used to win was with Arena Football. Vegas didn't know how to handicap it so it was easy money.

Black Saturday wrote:We've had The Gnats number recently.

However, this year we have a young team and QB that are trying to find an identity and (offensive points, too).

They are playing at home, have plenty of experience, rivalry factor, no problem scoring against all their competition and maybe the revenge on us from last year to boot.

Unknown injuries?

Big Vegas number, but they have thrashed us before in Gnatsboro.

I'll be pulling for APP, of course, if we outright win this year it'll be a shocker in my opinion and make me proud. From all that the Gnats have shown and what APP hasn't shown me on the field so far this season, I'd say The Gumroots probably win.

Those are all valid points but while we are a young team, we were younger last year when we won.

AppSt94 wrote:

McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:I am guessing it is the same as parimutual betting I have done in Florida. I don't bet on people except Jai ala, and most of those have closed shop. But in horses as the bets come in the line moves and the payout is based on the odds at the time the betting is stopped for the race.

I don't wager on the ponies but I have cashed a 12k ticket on the dogs before. It was a $6 bet.

I used to do the dogs in Tampa, but they shut that down a few years ago. Jai-alai went first. I have not been to Tamps Downs in a while. The dogs were closer to the in-laws house, but I always felt a bit bad for the dogs. I knew the dogs life was not a pleasant one later.

The horses seemed to be treated like royalty, so I never felt as bad supporting them through my betting. I made $40 off $2 one time. I ended up taking everyone out to eat so that cost more than I made. Ended up losing $30 after the meal. I was jumping all around all exited on 20:1 and then I see just beside me a VERY nicely dressed family also at the finish line. They were excited in that Thurston Howell III sort of way. I realized they were the owners and was cashing a much bigger check than I was from the stakes they just won. I was still excited to win the $40 but that 1%er put my money into perspective, that and the meal at Outback.

AppSt94 wrote:

Black Saturday wrote:We've had The Gnats number recently.

However, this year we have a young team and QB that are trying to find an identity and (offensive points, too).

They are playing at home, have plenty of experience, rivalry factor, no problem scoring against all their competition and maybe the revenge on us from last year to boot.

Unknown injuries?

Big Vegas number, but they have thrashed us before in Gnatsboro.

I'll be pulling for APP, of course, if we outright win this year it'll be a shocker in my opinion and make me proud. From all that the Gnats have shown and what APP hasn't shown me on the field so far this season, I'd say The Gumroots probably win.

Those are all valid points but while we are a young team, we were younger last year when we won.

They had some key injuries for that game if I'm remembering roght I think APP lost a game or two during our championship years when Armanti was dinged up as well.

Hope we get the kicked holder thing ironed out. Matics was clearly not comfortable with whomever we had replacing Hallock.

We have lost twice to GSU in the last 9 years. The two times we lost, once was by 3 and the other was by 7 in OT.

We won last year by 24 at home, when we were in the middle of the worst season in recent history.

GSU has played well against two ACC teams, NC State, who is terrible this year and Georgia Tech, who is not.

Their offense is "gimmicky" by today's standards, so some might skew that in GSU's favor... But we have also faced that same offense, and others like it for years in the SOCON.

All things considered, the line seems really high and I will be putting money on App.

appskins wrote:We have lost twice to GSU in the last 9 years. The two times we lost, once was by 3 and the other was by 7 in OT.

We won last year by 24 at home, when we were in the middle of the worst season in recent history.

GSU has played well against two ACC teams, NC State, who is terrible this year and Georgia Tech, who is not.

Their offense is "gimmicky" by today's standards, so some might skew that in GSU's favor... But we have also faced that same offense, and others like it for years in the SOCON.

All things considered, the line seems really high and I will be putting money on App.

Excellent points and I will go one step further. Ga Tech, while better than NC State, is not as balanced of an offensive as we are. Tech would be easier to prepare for. Our offense is young but we are balanced and good enough in both the run and pass that it can give fits to an opponent to prepare for, especially on a short week.

The line does seem real high.
Maybe set due to good showing at State, Tech and at home on a short week (as mentioned)?

appskins wrote:We have lost twice to GSU in the last 9 years. The two times we lost, once was by 3 and the other was by 7 in OT.

We won last year by 24 at home, when we were in the middle of the worst season in recent history.

GSU has played well against two ACC teams, NC State, who is terrible this year and Georgia Tech, who is not.

Their offense is "gimmicky" by today's standards, so some might skew that in GSU's favor... But we have also faced that same offense, and others like it for years in the SOCON.

All things considered, the line seems really high and I will be putting money on App.

The line has gone up to 18. That is crazy insane. I would not read too much into it. There are only three games on Thursday so the average gambler with a problem is going to bet on all of them. He/she is going to look at the teams that have been played and the records and not look at actual stats and probably has not seen either one play. There are three lines on this game that I would take a look at if I placed bets on ASU. ASU is getting 18 points. That is three possessions and that is a lot for a grind it out run the ball team to cover. The rule of thumb is that if you can make a case that the underdog to win the game outright then that is the play. The over under is 60. Long story short, both teams are capable of scoring 30 in this one so the over is the play. The last bet is the most intriguing. The money line is ASU +675. Again, if you can make a case for the dog to win outright then it is worth some coin on the money line.