URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
302 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY...CROSSING THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE SEASON'S FIRST SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA IN THE VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-015-310315-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WS.A.0005.141101T0000Z-141102T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.W.0010.141101T0000Z-141102T0000Z/
ASHE-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-GRAYSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE...TAZEWELL...
MARION...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY
302 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM
FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...
WILL BLOW DOWN SOME TREES AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ROADS WILL
BECOME SLICK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Ray is saying 1-3 in most areas, hope he's right.

Check his time stamp... if from this AM.. toss it...

WXAPP wrote:Check his time stamp... if from this AM.. toss it...

So, the forecast continues to get worse, not better. Geez...thanks for all the updates JC!

I think its time Jeff did a LIVE weather report from The Rock periodically through out the day

These winter things are fickle beasts...

As for live weather... I'll defer to the elder Jackson.. Randy... he's the SR Met in the App State arsenal!

-WXAPP

Not gonna risk it driving 3.5 hrs away. OTOH, this may free me up to come up for UL-Monroe which I originally was gonna miss. Those that go, please be careful. Go App!

Hey we are Mountaineers, not flatland wussies.

Ya know.. there's always that chance... "THE ROCK" gets little.. while 1/2 mile west.. substantially more. Winds for everyone up to 50+mph gusts... Tough tough... day... so the trends continue...

-WXAPP

Dmanuhone wrote:Hey we are Mountaineers, not flatland wussies.

"Discretion is the better part of valor." I haven't ruled out making the three hour trip myself but I certainly can't fault someone who makes the decision not to face the potentially hazardous driving conditions.

Driving up 4 plus hours Friday afternoon and leaving Sunday. If you do drive up please be safe out there.
Leave yourself plenty of extra time for your trip. Go App!!!!

Only work would keep me away - not the weather! Will be traveling over from east TN tomorrow evening. Still understand if others stay home this weekend. Looking forward to the snow bowl!!

18z model runs in... not a full new set of data input on these... will wait for late night and AM runs. Trends pulling away from all out mayhem for snow totals.. but, this may be a "burp" that we sometimes see at this stage of the game. So, keep a crack in the door for a Boone trip... make the final call Friday PM...

-wxapp

Dmanuhone wrote:Hey we are Mountaineers, not flatland wussies.

I'm not a wuss either and no apology on my part is necessary.

I live on Howard's knob. The back side facing northwest. Prediction totals are tricky and I have had snow accumulation of an inch or snow on the road only to drive down to 194 and not have anything on the road. I push snow and see people freak out when they give various predictions in such a small area. Snake Mtn and three top along with Howard's knob/rich mountain can get those higher totals and a mile down hill considerably less. The thing I see is a warm temp scenario prior to the storm keeping the accumulation down and the rain ahead will keep roads wetter than a dry cold prior to a mid winter storm. Again, less snow on roads. Also this forecast is for total storm output from Friday night to sat night with lulls/breaks which don't help snows mount up on roadways. Temps will be too warm/borderline imop.

WXAPP wrote:18z model runs in... not a full new set of data input on these... will wait for late night and AM runs. Trends pulling away from all out mayhem for snow totals.. but, this may be a "burp" that we sometimes see at this stage of the game. So, keep a crack in the door for a Boone trip... make the final call Friday PM...

-wxapp

Are you saying shorts are ok?

luvyosef wrote:

Dmanuhone wrote:Hey we are Mountaineers, not flatland wussies.

I'm not a wuss either and no apology on my part is necessary.

Yeah, these internet tough guys crack me up. If it's just me, yeah I would be there. When I have a wife and two-year old...I have to be reasonable. Not to mention, you can't account for the other people who may be significantly worse drivers than us.

I can't imagine how small tomorrow's crowd will be. I honestly don't think the weather will be close to as bad as many are making it out to be.

FRIDAY AM***

No major changes to forecast thinking. Fine line on the *POOF* factor, but all modeling suggests the POOF won't be taking place. This is an unusual set up. We don't often see this sort of dynamic upper level system until later in winter. I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of thunder tonight and early Saturday across the High Country.

If headed Boone way.. just use some common sense when on the roads tonight and Saturday. Much of the forecasting language paints a harsh picture for the day, but here's hoping the "gentler" side of things shows up. Forecasts are only as good as the data. Check the wooly worm....

GO MOUNTAINEERS!

-WXAPP

not a good game to have recruits in the stands, alot of fans have already made up their minds not to attend regardless how the weather turns out. We are kinda in "dam if we do, dam if we don't situation", if the weather is as bad as predicted, the recruits might give us a pass on low attendance, but aren't going to love watching a game in a blizzard, but if the weather holds off, and the game is played in decent weather, they are going to look up in the stands and wonder where all the fans are.