Big 10 Trickle Down

[APPdiesel]

Prediction time...

With the Big10 mandating no more FCS opponents and 9 conference games, it's likely other conferences will follow suit.

Should that happen, I wonder what the fall out could be. Will G5 schools fill in the scheduling gaps left by FCSers? Will this kick start another round of top tier FCSers (Montana, NDSU, JMU etc) moving up?

Thoughts?

[firemoose]

G5's will have to fill in spots for now, until the next round of conference moves begins again. Then we'll see where it goes. It's all tied in together.

I've said it for years and nothing I've heard recently causes me to think differently. The G5 will eventually realign more regionally. There's really no way to continue forward without doing it. What form it will take and when are still to be decided but everyone I've talked to in AD's across the country says it will eventually take place.

Each time things have started moving something has occurred that has made everyone stop and review how this change or that legal case effects their conference and school. Once all the cases are resolved and decision are made then moves will begin again. The next big one is to see if a P5 conference decides to make a move towards the Super Conference. Should one do it they'll all do it. The behind the scenes talk is the Big 12 is seriously looking at several options, including that one. Given how many teams they currently have they would have to add many more than any of the other P5's to go there but each would have to add one or some. Should they decide to pull the trigger it will cause a ripple effect through all FBS. Even if they don't pull the nuclear option they could still take a couple of AAC or other G5 teams. That's only one possible scenario of about a dozen I've heard. Whatever happens though, eventually the FCS schools eyeing a possible move up will find the door firmly shut and locked. Welcome to the new D-II with 50 or so scholarships.

Interestingly the point of your thread, the move by the Big 10 this week to cut all FCS games, was a shot across the bow that didn't get tons of play in the media but was one move that many AD's were watching for that could be the start to more moves. The reasoning behind it is if the P5 decides to go the super conference path the the rest of the FBS would be relegated more to a 1-AA level again, which would make FCS schools the new D-II. Saying no more FCS games would then become no D-II games, which is the way it is now.

The P5's are going to dictate exactly how all this shakes out. Nothing the G5 does, short of going ahead and merging into super conference themselves, or just swapping teams between them to go regional and try and firm themselves up, is going to make much of a difference. Like it or not we're all at the mercy of what the P5's do. And little things like the shock that CUSA is in for next year when their current TV deal comes back up come into play also. But at least we've got on the dance floor. Better than not being here at all and having the door slammed in our faces. No matter what interesting times are ahead.

[WVAPPeer]

Moose has been telling me all of this for several years --- now if he could only start giving me the correct Lottery numbers ---

[luvyosef]

The G5 teams creating more regional conferences is where it NEEDS to be. App has no business playing schools in Louisiana and Texas. A conference with App, ECU, Marshall, ODU, Ga Southern, Memphis, etc would be awesome.

[ashugh]

I have no doubt your are 100% right. But, let me be the contriarian for a second.
The Super Conference model could very easily backfire. To create them (Super Conferences), it will HAVE to take away some of the long standing rivalries and it creates a kind of "eat your own" scenario, where it could do more harm than help. I think college football, and basketball, are as popular as they are do to the diverse regions of the country and conferences that represent them, along with longstanding rivalries. They should take a long hard look at NASCAR and all the big changes they made in pursuit of the almighty dollar. They can't sell out a race in CHARLOTTE, for goodness sakes. (And, yes, I realize Dale Earnhardt's death was a huge blow. But, it didn't cause all the issues NASCAR has to gotten itself in to. They forgot their raising, so to speak.) It's not hard to over reach or over play your hand when what you have is aleady squeezing just about all the juice out of the sport(s). Just a contrarian point of view.
But, like I said at the top, I have no doubt you are correct about their line of thinking.

[Saint3333]

If they go to nine conference games and don't play FCS programs that would put the g5 in the same spot. Now if they stay at eight conference games that is a better equation for us.

[moehler]

I agree about the eventual move towards regional conferences, but, I don't believe its going to take a major move by the P5 schools for that to happen. I think the move is already in motion, and the main catalyst is simple economics. Collage athletics expenses continue to rise every year, while revenue streams either have reached their limits or are in decline, the gap between the two continues to widen. If you want to look a two things that might speed up the process, the first, the CUSA commissioner just resigned to take another job, why is that important, well he is a man, who by his actions believes that tv markets should be the deciding factor in forming a conference, with him gone, that might open the door to someone who believes in the regional approach rather than the tv market approach. Second, pay close attention to the new CUSA tv deal when its finalized in a year, if it comes in much less than the current one, which from what I have read, it probably will, this might be the event that changes how mid major conferences are formed.

[firemoose]

I agree with everything that's been said. I actually had a line in that novel I wrote that said "How will it happen? It could be several smaller moves like things that are starting to happen now or it could be one big move." I think I dropped it when I went back to correct a misspelling...

[APPdiesel]

My question is, if you could really get the Sunbelt, MAC, C-USA, AAC, and MW commissioners together, how would it land with them? We all agree regional conferences are the logical thing to do, but redrawing the lines is a HUGE change, and most people don't like change, even if it's in their best interest. Also, I could see chancellors and presidents at the bigger schools fight this because they might view their current associations as better than the proposed future ones. For example, even though its in their financial best interest to be in a conference with App, Charlotte, ODU, etc, ECU's administration, fans, coaches, alums, and donors would want to stay aligned with Cincinnati, Memphis, and the like because of their reputations and years of effort spent "building a brand".

Even though it's the right thing to do, I doubt this change would come easily and it would get VERY messy.

[moehler]

the MAC is already a regional conference, so I don't think they will have a say in any conference changes between the SBC and CUSA, I also don't think the AAC will participate, all those teams believe they are next in line to join a P5 conference, even though its expensive for them, they would rather stay put then join a conference with the likes of App and Charlotte. What we are talking about here is the SBC and CUSA either becoming a super conference or each conference trading members based on regional ties. It might take years, and I don't think it will be one grand move where 3 or 4 teams from each conference trade places. Again, I want to see that new tv contract, if its not good, it might get CUSA to the negotiating table alittle bit quicker.

[APPdiesel]

The AAC *wants* to be a Power 5 conference, but they're not. The SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12 look at the AAC as inferior...