This thread is meant solely for entertainment purposes. I’m fully aware of the unlikelihood of the below events actually coming to fruition

"The highest-rated champion from the "Group of Five" conferences -- the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Mid-American -- will receive an automatic berth in one of the six access bowls."

I hear a lot of talk about how App State has no chance at the Access Bowl because we are behind too many teams in the "Group of Five." Well, folks, I'm here to tell you that that doesn't necessarily matter. At all. All that matters is that we beat out 4 other teams. Four. With simply a "few" games going our way, those four teams could end up having a lot weaker resumes than you may think.

The only teams considered for the Access Bowl from the G5 are conference champions. Assuming we take the Sun Belt (still an IF at this point), we would be among those 5 teams considered for the spot. If we win out (an even bigger IF), we would probably be in the Top 25 around spots 20-25. For comparison, Group of Five representative Boise State was ranked #20 last year when they were selected.

Disclaimer: Everything below assumes we end up 11-1. We are FANS, we can talk about this stuff. IMO, it's what makes it fun.

Now, it would seem that there are too many other contenders this year. Memphis is ranked #16, Houston #18, Toledo #20, and Temple #21. Marshall and WKU are having great seasons, as are Bowling Green and Navy. And you can never count out Boise State should they run the table and go 11-2. However, all that has to happen is for the favorites to lose their conference championship games. I know I will probably get laughed at because it is such a long shot, but it may not be as long as you think.

In my opinion, the only teams that would be ahead of us if they win out are the aforementioned Memphis, Houston, Toledo, Temple, Navy, and yes, Boise State. Western Kentucky and Marshall would be a toss-ups, but I believe that we would have a better resume than the rest of the G5, again, assuming we win out.

For Toledo and Boise State to be eliminated from contention, all that has to happen is for them to lose their championship game (Boise can actually win out and still miss out on its championship game due to tiebreakers).

Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan are our contenders to root for in the MAC, and Air Force, Utah State, and San Diego State in the Mountain West. It also wouldn't hurt for Louisiana Tech or Southern Miss to win CUSA.

The problem comes in the American Athletic. Several of the teams I mentioned would still trump App's resume even with one or even two losses. What we need is for either South Florida, East Carolina, or Cincinnati to win the East AND win the conference title game. Another option would be for Temple to drop a couple conference games, but still get to their championship game and win (remember the also play Notre Dame so this would put them at 3 losses) . This eliminates all of the AAC contenders from Access Bowl discussion and puts us in a hat with a 3 loss AAC team, a battle I think we would win at 11-1.

So here is the scenario where we head to Atlanta:

Group of Five Champs:
1. App State 11-1
2. AAC East Champ 11-2 or 10-3 (any Champ from the AAC West is the Access Bowl rep IMO)
3. CUSA West Champ or a 2 or 3 loss WKU or Marshall
4. Any MWC Champ except Boise State
5. Any MAC Champ except Toledo

Just a little fun for your Thursday afternoon. That we can even discuss these things at this point thrills me beyond belief. So start rooting for the Bowling Greens, Western Michigans, Utah States, San Diego States, Louisiana Techs, South Floridas, East Carolinas, and Cincinnatis of the world, and against the contenders and you never know what could happen!

Because what else are we going to do, argue about BBQ and ice in cups??

Nice to think about.

In that sense, we're almost advantaged by not having a Conference Championship Game.

I still want one, though.

bh2oson wrote:Dumb and Dumber video

I thought about appending this very video to the end, but thought I'd give someone else a chance. Thanks for not disappointing!

I admire your spirit. I think any AAC champ at 11-2 would get the nod over us. I think an 11-2 Bowling Green team very well might too. On the other hand, I am not at all convinced that Boise would (or at least, should) be ahead of us even at 11-2.

Keep in mind the AP and coaches poll rankings are not necessarily reflective of what the CFP rankings will look like. Marshall last year did better among the writers and coaches than they did with the CFP committee, and we are kind of in the same boat as they were in terms of SOS.

The fact that we are even having this conversation at this stage of the game, is something to get very excited about. A year ago, most people were still talking about how we would struggle for several years in the FBS.

Teams in the way and their potentially tough remaining games:

Houston (Vandy,Cincinnati,Memphis,Navy)- Need them to beat Memphis and lose to at least two of the others, kind of unlikely.

Temple (ND,Memphis,South Florida)- they are most likely to have 2 losses.

Memphis- (Navy,Houston, Temple)- need them to beat Temple and lose to Houston then lose conference title game or lose to Navy, long odds.

Toledo- (N. Ill, Central Michigan, Bowling Green)- need to lose to BG and the title game. They play every directional Michigan school apparently.

Navy- S Fla, Memphis, Houston, Army- Ideally beat Memphis and Houston and lose to one of the others. Never know about the Army game but will probably roll them.

I love the enthusiasm but odds way against us. We really needed some help from ECU and they have stunk up the joint this season.

I suspect that the eye test will have us ranked higher than computers next week.

bigdaddyg wrote:Teams in the way and their potentially tough remaining games:

Houston (Vandy,Cincinnati,Memphis,Navy)- Need them to beat Memphis and lose to at least two of the others, kind of unlikely.

Temple (ND,Memphis,South Florida)- they are most likely to have 2 losses.

Memphis- (Navy,Houston, Temple)- need them to beat Temple and lose to Houston then lose conference title game or lose to Navy, long odds.

Toledo- (N. Ill, Central Michigan, Bowling Green)- need to lose to BG and the title game. They play every directional Michigan school apparently.

Navy- S Fla, Memphis, Houston, Army- Ideally beat Memphis and Houston and lose to one of the others. Never know about the Army game but will probably roll them.

I love the enthusiasm but odds way against us. We really needed some help from ECU and they have stunk up the joint this season.

Remember, if a team loses its conference title game, it cannot go to the Access Bowl. So in your scenarios where you say X team has to lose a game AND its title game, it should only read that it must lose its title game. Still a long shot, but the conference championship games are what matters!

The AAC is the problem. If there is an undefeated vs. a 1-loss in the AAC title game, we are TOAST. This is why we need USF, Cincy, or ECU to get in there and win it!

EastHallApp wrote:I admire your spirit. I think any AAC champ at 11-2 would get the nod over us. I think an 11-2 Bowling Green team very well might too. On the other hand, I am not at all convinced that Boise would (or at least, should) be ahead of us even at 11-2.

Keep in mind the AP and coaches poll rankings are not necessarily reflective of what the CFP rankings will look like. Marshall last year did better among the writers and coaches than they did with the CFP committee, and we are kind of in the same boat as they were in terms of SOS.

Definitely agreed about an 11-2 AAC. The one possible exception to that would be Navy, if their other loss is a bad one. They probably would not feature in the title game in that scenario, but it's possible.

I just think Boise gets in over us if we both win out, because they are Boise. The bad loss to Utah State was VERY bad, though. It would be close if it came down to us vs. them IMO.

I don't even know if we'd get the nod over a three-loss AAC team. It's basically the 6th power 6 conference.

asucrutch23 wrote:

bigdaddyg wrote:Teams in the way and their potentially tough remaining games:

Houston (Vandy,Cincinnati,Memphis,Navy)- Need them to beat Memphis and lose to at least two of the others, kind of unlikely.

Temple (ND,Memphis,South Florida)- they are most likely to have 2 losses.

Memphis- (Navy,Houston, Temple)- need them to beat Temple and lose to Houston then lose conference title game or lose to Navy, long odds.

Toledo- (N. Ill, Central Michigan, Bowling Green)- need to lose to BG and the title game. They play every directional Michigan school apparently.


Navy- S Fla, Memphis, Houston, Army- Ideally beat Memphis and Houston and lose to one of the others. Never know about the Army game but will probably roll them.

I love the enthusiasm but odds way against us. We really needed some help from ECU and they have stunk up the joint this season.

Remember, if a team loses its conference title game, it cannot go to the Access Bowl. So in your scenarios where you say X team has to lose a game AND its title game, it should only read that it must lose its title game. Still a long shot, but the conference championship games are what matters!

The AAC is the problem. If there is an undefeated vs. a 1-loss in the AAC title game, we are TOAST. This is why we need USF, Cincy, or ECU to get in there and win it!

Looks like South Florida would be the only chance. They have 3 losses but would have to beat Temple and then win the conference title game.

Gonzo wrote:I don't even know if we'd get the nod over a three-loss AAC team. It's basically the 6th power 6 conference.

I firmly believe that we would. Especially if that team is USF, ECU, or Cincy. If that 3-loss team is one of the current undefeateds, then that is a BAD 2nd half. Don't think that would look to good to the committee even if that team wins the CCG.

asucrutch23 wrote:

EastHallApp wrote:I admire your spirit. I think any AAC champ at 11-2 would get the nod over us. I think an 11-2 Bowling Green team very well might too. On the other hand, I am not at all convinced that Boise would (or at least, should) be ahead of us even at 11-2.

Keep in mind the AP and coaches poll rankings are not necessarily reflective of what the CFP rankings will look like. Marshall last year did better among the writers and coaches than they did with the CFP committee, and we are kind of in the same boat as they were in terms of SOS.

Definitely agreed about an 11-2 AAC. The one possible exception to that would be Navy, if their other loss is a bad one. They probably would not feature in the title game in that scenario, but it's possible.

I just think Boise gets in over us if we both win out, because they are Boise. The bad loss to Utah State was VERY bad, though. It would be close if it came down to us vs. them IMO.

If Navy did win the AAC and were in the mix for the access spot, it would throw a wrench in the plans, because they play Army the week after the AAC title game, and after the CFP announces their selections. So if they picked Navy for the NY6 spot, they'd have to select an alternate team in case Navy loses to Army.

Another long shot scenario, but one to keep in mind if you are a fan of chaos.

Don't know why I'm thinkin' about it now, but... what ever happened to "Still Jonesin"?

Navy has already committed to the Military Bowl.


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How awesome and ironic would it be if ECUs success is what catapults us ahead of them?

Stranger things have happened. I think though when it comes to splitting hairs, App may be at a disadvantage because we are in a doormat conference. Seeing that Georgia State and Idaho are in the top 5 of the conference standings I think says a lot about the SBC at the moment.

Either way, just keep doing what we are doing and people that matter will take notice.

Peach Bowl is a long shot with all else that would have to happen. How great is it though to even be having this conversation just a season and a half into FBS?
We have to win out. We should end close or maybe in the Top 25. Next year we will be strong contender for Peach Bowl bid.