College basketball style of play

[T-Dog]

This quote from Dan D'Antonio, Marshall head coach, piqued my interest. This was after they shocked the Shockers.



Basically, there's no reason, according to analytics, why the post up should exist in basketball unless you want to slow the game down and rely on defense.

Looking at App basketball, I see attempted post-ups, but also a lot of attempted 3s. And with more 3s, you have longer rebounds and less reliance on the C/F having to grab them. I've seen the argument that the 3-point line ruined the sport and all that nonsense, but the reality is that players can make 3s at a higher clip than ever before and it's becoming worth it to shoot more.

Basically, my point is that since the Sun Belt, generally, is more athletic than the Apps, they should create their own advantage more. Spread the front court, look for 3s and stop having a forward hesitate in the post for 3-5 seconds around a dozen times a game.

[EastHallApp]

Side note, that quote is a few months old. It just resurfaced today because of their big win.

[ASU3432Mi]

Hate the 3.... except when the Retrievers shoot them.

[appaneer1984]

He sounds like a nice guy (◔_◔)

[bigdaddyg]

Looks at stats from UNCG first round game. Teams combined for something like 8 for 45 from 3. How much coaching does it take to play that way?

[Stonewall]

Watching bits and pieces of the NCACCs , heck if you can shoot you can win. It about as simple as putting it in the basket.

[bcoach]

Time to raise the hoop

[ASU3432Mi]

Move the line out to at least NBA distance. Dunks also count for 3.

[bcoach]

Move the line out to at least NBA distance. Dunks also count for 3.

Dunks should be 1 point. Not a lot of talent for a 7 footer to stand under the basket and dunk.

[Yosef84]

So, the post-up shot in basketball is the equivalent of the run up the middle in football. I guess you have to do it in order to keep the defense honest, but it shouldn't be your bread and butter. That's basically what I get out of this.

It's an interesting analysis, but I doubt it can be applied without consideration to other factors. If there is a physical mismatch in the paint, I imagine the post up becomes more profitable. In order for the corner shot to be 1.3 points per attempt, you have to be consistently shooting 43% from that spot. If App consistently shot 43% from 3 point range, we would have had a great shot at the dance. I'm just saying the strategy still has to match the team.

[EastHallApp]

So, the post-up shot in basketball is the equivalent of the run up the middle in football. I guess you have to do it in order to keep the defense honest, but it shouldn't be your bread and butter. That's basically what I get out of this.

It's an interesting analysis, but I doubt it can be applied without consideration to other factors. If there is a physical mismatch in the paint, I imagine the post up becomes more profitable. In order for the corner shot to be 1.3 points per attempt, you have to be consistently shooting 43% from that spot. If App consistently shot 43% from 3 point range, we would have had a great shot at the dance. I'm just saying the strategy still has to match the team.

Exactly. The stats he cites are generalities. Obviously if you've got someone like Marvin Bagley or DeAndre Ayton (or the slew of bigs that UNC/Gonzaga had last year), you're going to have a better success rate posting up than other teams. Plus post-ups are one of the better ways to draw fouls and thus get those FT attempts Dantoni mentioned.

But, I think his point is sound - there are way more guys who can hit jumpers than skilled big men, especially in the college game in the OAD era and especially at mid-major schools.

[EastHallApp]

Move the line out to at least NBA distance. Dunks also count for 3.

Dunks should be 1 point. Not a lot of talent for a 7 footer to stand under the basket and dunk.

Basically the game was ruined as soon as they decided to cut the bottom out of the peach basket.

[Yosef84]

So, the post-up shot in basketball is the equivalent of the run up the middle in football. I guess you have to do it in order to keep the defense honest, but it shouldn't be your bread and butter. That's basically what I get out of this.

It's an interesting analysis, but I doubt it can be applied without consideration to other factors. If there is a physical mismatch in the paint, I imagine the post up becomes more profitable. In order for the corner shot to be 1.3 points per attempt, you have to be consistently shooting 43% from that spot. If App consistently shot 43% from 3 point range, we would have had a great shot at the dance. I'm just saying the strategy still has to match the team.

Exactly. The stats he cites are generalities. Obviously if you've got someone like Marvin Bagley or DeAndre Ayton (or the slew of bigs that UNC/Gonzaga had last year), you're going to have a better success rate posting up than other teams. Plus post-ups are one of the better ways to draw fouls and thus get those FT attempts Dantoni mentioned.

But, I think his point is sound - there are way more guys who can hit jumpers than skilled big men, especially in the college game in the OAD era and especially at mid-major schools.

There is no doubt that a team that shoots 3 pointers is hard to beat and it's a valid strategy. I just don't see it as an "either/or" thing. I do hope that App can gain some consistency next year. When we have those games where we go 3 for 20 from the three point line, it changes the whole complexion of the game and makes the situation look worse than it probably is.

[bigdaddyg]

So, the post-up shot in basketball is the equivalent of the run up the middle in football. I guess you have to do it in order to keep the defense honest, but it shouldn't be your bread and butter. That's basically what I get out of this.

It's an interesting analysis, but I doubt it can be applied without consideration to other factors. If there is a physical mismatch in the paint, I imagine the post up becomes more profitable. In order for the corner shot to be 1.3 points per attempt, you have to be consistently shooting 43% from that spot. If App consistently shot 43% from 3 point range, we would have had a great shot at the dance. I'm just saying the strategy still has to match the team.

Exactly. The stats he cites are generalities. Obviously if you've got someone like Marvin Bagley or DeAndre Ayton (or the slew of bigs that UNC/Gonzaga had last year), you're going to have a better success rate posting up than other teams. Plus post-ups are one of the better ways to draw fouls and thus get those FT attempts Dantoni mentioned.

A big stat that teams use in football and basketball is points off of turnovers. One stat I would like to see is points by opponent off of missed 3 pointers . A team that brings the ball up, does very little offense and jacks a 3 only to turn it over is obviously at a disadvantage.
But, I think his point is sound - there are way more guys who can hit jumpers than skilled big men, especially in the college game in the OAD era and especially at mid-major schools.

There is no doubt that a team that shoots 3 pointers is hard to beat and it's a valid strategy. I just don't see it as an "either/or" thing. I do hope that App can gain some consistency next year. When we have those games where we go 3 for 20 from the three point line, it changes the whole complexion of the game and makes the situation look worse than it probably is.

[bcoach]

Move the line out to at least NBA distance. Dunks also count for 3.

Dunks should be 1 point. Not a lot of talent for a 7 footer to stand under the basket and dunk.

Basically the game was ruined as soon as they decided to cut the bottom out of the peach basket.

Good point and I miss the peaches

[GreenGlasses]

This quote from Dan D'Antonio, Marshall head coach, piqued my interest. This was after they shocked the Shockers.

This wasn't after the Wichita State win, this happened on Dec 28 2016 after a loss to Pittsburgh 112-106 where Marshall was down at one point 71-39.

Here is the press conference it happened at: Dan D'Antoni On Analytics Or Danalytics

What you see in the NBA with Golden State, Cleveland, Dallas and now Houston is thanks to Mike D'Antoni when he was hired at PHX in 2003. Before 2003 the avg score in the NBA was 72.4 points per game with 6 3s taken per game. This year before the playoff started the avg score was 122.2 points per game and an avg of 32.6 3s taken per game.

The top teams in the NBA you don't see just throwing it in down low and trying to score over someone. You see them spread the floor out and play Pick'N'Roll or Pick'N'Pop. If the roll guy is open that means the defender stayed with the guy with the ball and a pass inside should be an easy wide open layup/dunk. If the roll guy gets the defender on him going to the basket that should result in the guy with the ball either open for a good shot or a pass or even extra pass for a wide open 3.

Marshall, Loyala Chicago and UMBC all played some form of this concept in the 2018 NCAA Tournament. I think in the next 5-10 years you will see less and less of the Greg Marshall (Wichita State), Jeff Jones (ODU) and Tony Bennett (UVA) style of pound it in, grind it out, first to 50 wins.

It might be Danalytcs101 but its a winning formula if you get the right players in place.

[T-Dog]

I think Curry has changed basketball more than LeBron ever will. There are very few Lebrons in the world who are physically dominant. Theoretically, anyone can be a Curry, meaning a player who works hard and develops a fearless range that is anywhere inside the half court.

[Cro-Magnon App]

The post up is a great play and an exciting play if you are posting it to Moses Malone (various moves), Nate Thurmond (power), Artis Gilmore (power and grace), Elgin Baylor (short jumper), Lew Alcindor (hook), Elvin Hayes (turnaround bank) , Wes Unseld (bully you), Connie Hawkins (spin and dunk), Willis Reed (fallaway jumper), The Big Dipper (finger roll), Walt Bellamy (hip and spin), etc. It is a bad play and a boring play to watch if you are working it in there to Hassan Whiteside, Steve Adams, etc.

[Cro-Magnon App]

Overall, in college the 3 pt. shot is a 35% make and you rarely get to the line. The post up will get you a second chance with the offensive rebound and get you to the line (except now when many of 'em get to the line, they can't make the open free throw which negates it all).

[ASU3432Mi]

Live by the 3, die by the 3. Ask the Houston Rockets.