Just for fun / pure speculation. After the weekend, most of our Sunbelt tournament path looks settled. Unfortunately the loss to Troy means that the best we can do is the #6 seed (we lost Tiebreaker to Georgia St), we'll likely face UTA at home (which will be tough given how they're playing, I'd much rather face Coastal again) a loss to ULM would knock us down into the opening round.

Assuming we win at ULM it's looking like...
(rough handicapping)
March 9th Home Game against UTA (Probably an even line)
March 11th Away at South Alabama or Georgia Southern (We're probably +5)

New Orleans~
Texas St (We're maybe +6) again)
UALR (Probably something in range of +7 again after the prior necessary wins)

There is some variability based on tomorrow, but it seems very likely that best case our path runs through some sequence of South Alabama, Georgia Southern, and Texas St. Ideally no Texas Travel. And perhaps we get lucky and UALR/GS get upset at some point. I bet when the Vegas odds come out Wednesday we're somewhere around 40:1 underdogs to start the tournament.

This team has been an absolutely blast to watch all season and I think we'll be a tough out. I'd love to see this teams hardwork deliver a trip to New Orleans.

So you're saying there's a chance?!?

NavyApp wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:17 pm

So you're saying there's a chance?!?

Lol I can concur. I've only been to one App State game (Apps vs. UNCG @ Greensboro Coliseum) & we were actually dominating the Spartans for quite a while. We shot 3-pointer after 3-pointer & gave them a hard time on D. It was the 2nd half that killed us; we made <50% of our FTs while UNCG made almost all of theirs.

Overall, I'd say this year has been nothing but a success. So much better than we have for the past 4 years.

MountaineerChemist10 wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:50 am

NavyApp wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:17 pm

So you're saying there's a chance?!?

Lol I can concur. I've only been to one App State game (Apps vs. UNCGay @ Greensboro Coliseum) & we were actually dominating the Spartans for quite a while. We shot 3-pointer after 3-pointer & gave them a hard time on D. It was the 2nd half that killed us; we made <50% of our FTs while UNCG made almost all of theirs.

Overall, I'd say this year has been nothing but a success. So much better than we have for the past 4 years.

We could do without the homophobic slur. We’re better than that.

AppGrad78 wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:00 am

MountaineerChemist10 wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:50 am

NavyApp wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:17 pm

So you're saying there's a chance?!?

Lol I can concur. I've only been to one App State game (Apps vs. UNCG @ Greensboro Coliseum) & we were actually dominating the Spartans for quite a while. We shot 3-pointer after 3-pointer & gave them a hard time on D. It was the 2nd half that killed us; we made <50% of our FTs while UNCG made almost all of theirs.

Overall, I'd say this year has been nothing but a success. So much better than we have for the past 4 years.

We could do without the homophobic slur. We’re better than that.

Very true. I apologize.

Yah agreed that this year has been fantastic. We missed out on a double-bye by a single game.

The only published odds I see put app at 40:1 so I'll take my handicapping medal please

Notably though we've struggled with various injuries the last couple months and I firmly believe that this team when healthy can beat anyone in the conference. Even more so since we're not facing UALR until the final. But obviously we're likely going up against a good UTA and a two good teams in South Alabama & Texas St. Tough games for sure, but we've already beat all three of these opponents.

It'll be a long roadtrip for UTA, hope we can get one more homewin this season.

Worth noting that UALR is just 1-3 on their last several road games and their last three conference wins came against the bottom dwellers.

Hopefully Coastal upsets UTA which would be an easier first round matchup and let us get a re-do of the last game.

We'd probably be favored by -3.5 against Coastal and even or even +1 against UTA.

agentpaul001 wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:27 pm

Yah agreed that this year has been fantastic. We missed out on a double-bye by a single game.

The only published odds I see put app at 40:1 so I'll take my handicapping medal please

Notably though we've struggled with various injuries the last couple months and I firmly believe that this team when healthy can beat anyone in the conference. Even more so since we're not facing UALR until the final. But obviously we're likely going up against a good UTA and a two good teams in South Alabama & Texas St. Tough games for sure, but we've already beat all three of these opponents.

It'll be a long roadtrip for UTA, hope we can get one more homewin this season.

Worth noting that UALR is just 1-3 on their last several road games and their last three conference wins came against the bottom dwellers.

Hopefully Coastal upsets UTA which would be an easier first round matchup and let us get a re-do of the last game.

We'd probably be favored by -3.5 against Coastal and even or even +1 against UTA.

I agree with you, but I think personally I'd rather play UTA again. For me it's a better matchup for us and Coastal is getting hot at the right time of year. It was not a fluke when they beat us last week. Either way I'm excited for the conference tourney for the first time in ages.

NavyApp wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:36 pm

agentpaul001 wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:27 pm

Yah agreed that this year has been fantastic. We missed out on a double-bye by a single game.

The only published odds I see put app at 40:1 so I'll take my handicapping medal please

Notably though we've struggled with various injuries the last couple months and I firmly believe that this team when healthy can beat anyone in the conference. Even more so since we're not facing UALR until the final. But obviously we're likely going up against a good UTA and a two good teams in South Alabama & Texas St. Tough games for sure, but we've already beat all three of these opponents.

It'll be a long roadtrip for UTA, hope we can get one more homewin this season.

Worth noting that UALR is just 1-3 on their last several road games and their last three conference wins came against the bottom dwellers.

Hopefully Coastal upsets UTA which would be an easier first round matchup and let us get a re-do of the last game.

We'd probably be favored by -3.5 against Coastal and even or even +1 against UTA.

I agree with you, but I think personally I'd rather play UTA again. For me it's a better matchup for us and Coastal is getting hot at the right time of year. It was not a fluke when they beat us last week. Either way I'm excited for the conference tourney for the first time in ages.

agreed. UTA has been good lately, but didn't look that impressive either time we played them (possibly due to how well we match up?) Coastal is very athletic and the point guard and one of the long range shooters destroyed us last time. They are also the best rebounding team in the belt and were predicted to be near the top of the conference during preseason. I feel that we can be successful if we play super stingy defense and control the pace, which we did not do very well at all against Coastal. I'm not sure how we demolished them at their place.