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MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:21 pm
by McLeansvilleAppFan
I don't think I have done an early in the year analysis of MBB scores since 2017-2018 so I thought I would do that now. It is certainly good to be 2-0 and certainly better than 1-1 or 0-2. However I have come across some worrying trends after analyzing the scores at the end of the game and if my predictions come true it is going to go south quickly.
Based on the game delta after two games I am getting a best-fit line of
Delta (points)=-63 (points/game) x+131 (points).
We went from winning by 68 to only winning by 5 and at this rate I predict we lose by 1822 points on the last regular season game of the year. And to make it all the worse that game is against GaSo. x is the game number and we play 31 regular season games.
Given the complete crash in offensive points scored I am predicting we score -1748 points on the last game of the regular season against GaSo. I don't even know how we can score negative points in basketball, but here we are, or there we will be based on my rigorous and detailed look at the numbers. The best-fit line is
OffPoints (points)=-63 (points/game) x+205 (points). x is again the game number.
On a positive note our defense is going to look pretty consistent and I predict our opponents will score 74 points every game. The best-fit line is
OppPoints (points)=0 (points/game)x+74 (points), and again, x is the game number.
I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings but I just don't see how my maths could be wrong here. I have a link to the Google Sheet that bares all of this out plainly and feel free to check my maths.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:34 pm
by MrCraig
Oh yeah. That’s the stuff. Love a good small-sample-size stat. App basketball absolutely peaked against Warren Wilson.
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:46 pm
by AppDub
McLeansvilleAppFan wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:21 pm
I don't think I have done an early in the year analysis of MBB scores since 2017-2018 so I thought I would do that now. It is certainly good to be 2-0 and certainly better than 1-1 or 0-2. However I have come across some worrying trends after analyzing the scores at the end of the game and if my predictions come true it is going to go south quickly.
Based on the game delta after two games I am getting a best-fit line of
Delta (points)=-63 (points/game) x+131 (points).
We went from winning by 68 to only winning by 5 and at this rate I predict we lose by 1822 points on the last regular season game of the year. And to make it all the worse that game is against GaSo. x is the game number and we play 31 regular season games.
Given the complete crash in offensive points scored I am predicting we score -1748 points on the last game of the regular season against GaSo. I don't even know how we can score negative points in basketball, but here we are, or there we will be based on my rigorous and detailed look at the numbers. The best-fit line is
OffPoints (points)=-63 (points/game) x+205 (points). x is again the game number.
On a positive note our defense is going to look pretty consistent and I predict our opponents will score 74 points every game. The best-fit line is
OppPoints (points)=0 (points/game)x+74 (points), and again, x is the game number.
I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings but I just don't see how my maths could be wrong here. I have a link to the Google Sheet that bares all of this out plainly and feel free to check my maths.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Ummmm, okay.
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:53 pm
by goapps93
That’s some serious analytics right there.
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:10 pm
by ArmantiWaterSafety
I’ve been on this board too long since I remember when you posted the other thread. Still makes me laugh.
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:11 pm
by spacemonkey
I am a big fan of statistics and you have nailed it....nice work!!!!!!!!
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:57 pm
by TractorApp
I'm going to go ahead and blame Mitch McConnell for our performance tonight. Where was the promised black and gold wave??
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:29 pm
by bigdaddyg
Our regular announcers for the plus games aren't bad but they pointed out a bit much from the W.W. game, like we beat some juggernaut.
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:28 am
by WataugaMan
However, when you use the simple equation below when solving for f of x, you can plainly see that App in fact will have a very good year:
f(x)±g(x))=dfdx±dgdx
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:49 pm
by agentpaul001
I love KenPom but the sample size is still too far at this stage of the season to really pull anything other then rough approximations (although the conference win/losses are starting to accumulate). I think we're just as likely to end up at #190 as we are #120 by season end.
Notably KenPom is great for where you're at present day, but not necessarily where you'll be at season end. Kerns is a good coach and the sign of that will be a steady rise in the rankings throughout the season.
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:15 pm
by McLeansvilleAppFan
agentpaul001 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:49 pm
I love KenPom but the sample size is ...
not correct unless there are exactly two points to have a perfect coefficient of regression. I think my research that starts this thread will be born out by the end of the season. I feel so confident in this I have placed a huge amount of crypto in the hands of FTX to handle for me just last week.
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:25 pm
by yikas1
I was an art major.
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:56 pm
by Saint3333
TractorApp wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:57 pm
I'm going to go ahead and blame Mitch McConnell for our performance tonight. Where was the promised black and gold wave??
Hopefully the same place Nancy is headed.
Re: MBB Trends for 2022-2023-Not for the squeamish
Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:06 pm
by WVAPPeer
I hated math when I was a kid, hated it as an adult and hate it still as an old-head