MBB vs Arkansas stAte, Friday, March 1, 2024, 6:30 p.m., ESPN+, Holmes Sweet Holmes, finale, #1 Defense v #1 Offense

[AppStFan1]

App is in a really good place as we look forward to Pensacola:

1. Team is peaking at the right time
2. Plenty of scoring weapons
3. Stifling defense
4. No divas, no drama
4. Team is relatively healthy
5. Players are all-in on Kerns’ system
6. Kerns: exceptional HC & a great staff

Finally, what makes me exceptionally hopeful is this: there is NO QUIT in these kids. They play as hard when they’re up by 20 as they do if they’re down by 10. They don’t rattle easily when trailing and they don’t act foolish or become complacent when App is up big.

And there’s a good reason for this. When you lead people, everyone likes to talk about the importance of having folks on your team who are bright, hungry, competitive, etc. All of these are very important. But two attributes that are just as important are humility and integrity.

This team is special because they work hard, they’re coachable and they play for one another. Credit DK and this amazing staff for getting the right players on the bus and instilling them with a mentality that will serve them far after their playing days are done.

What I notice is the smiles and genuine excitement that every player gets when a teammate does a great play. I think coach has instilled that 9 starters mentality and the team believes in it. A huge key is still Mantis. I don't know what his minutes are but I'd guess close to 10 a game. If he knocks down 2-3 treys and grabs 3 boards we seem to cruise. All jokes aside about free throws but Abson made that one adjustment of spreading his feet and he's like a different dude at the line. X is lightning fast and seems more confident driving for his shots. I watched him get back on defense a few times and the guy absolutely sprints every time.

Agreed on all counts. If we can get some production from Mantis, play good defense, take good shots, and hit from the charity stripe we are going to be even harder to beat.

[311neers]

NET up to 70. Is that the highest it’s been?

69! Can keep climbing with other teams losing ahead of us.

[Saint3333]

NET is just for seeding at this point.

JMU at 52 so neither of us will be high enough for an at large with another loss.

[Rekdiver]

Still no game download on ESPN+

[RaleighApp27609]

NET is just for seeding at this point.

JMU at 52 so neither of us will be high enough for an at large with another loss.

How high would App need to be in the Net for an at large bid do you estimate?

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

Still no game download on ESPN+

If you have the Hulu/Disney/ESPN bundle, it is available through the Hulu App. Mine has all games back to the last Georgia Southern game.

[hapapp]

This will be the 9th Sun Belt tournament we will have participated in since joining (the 2020 tourney was not played). In the previous 8 tournaments prior to this year's, the regular season champ has won three conference tournament titles and failed to win both 5 times. Ironically, App has been the lowest seed (8th) to win a tournament that the regular season champ failed to double. The last three tournaments have witnessed the regular season champ fail to advance to the NCAA tournament. In each of those three most recent tournaments, the #1 seed lost in the quarterfinals to the team that finished 8th best in the regular season.

Of the regular season champs, only UL matched our conference record with an identical 16-2 record in '17-'18. They failed to win the tournament, falling to 2nd place Ga State. Only Little Rock in '15-'16 had a better overall record than this year's App team. They were 17-3/27-4 prior to the tournament. Interestingly, their last regular season loss that year was to App.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

This will be the 9th Sun Belt tournament we will have participated in since joining (the 2020 tourney was not played). In the previous 8 tournaments prior to this year's, the regular season champ has won three conference tournament titles and failed to win both 5 times. Ironically, App has been the lowest seed (8th) to win a tournament that the regular season champ failed to double. The last three tournaments have witnessed the regular season champ fail to advance to the NCAA tournament. In each of those three most recent tournaments, the #1 seed lost in the quarterfinals to the team that finished 8th best in the regular season.

Of the regular season champs, only UL matched our conference record with an identical 16-2 record in '17-'18. They failed to win the tournament, falling to 2nd place Ga State. Only Little Rock in '15-'16 had a better overall record than this year's App team. They were 17-3/27-4 prior to the tournament. Interestingly, their last regular season loss that year was to App.

I’d say if the last 3 went to a team that didn’t win the regular season, then odds are in our favor because it’d be unlikely for it to be 4 years in a row. It’s as good as a lock, I’d say.

[hapapp]

This will be the 9th Sun Belt tournament we will have participated in since joining (the 2020 tourney was not played). In the previous 8 tournaments prior to this year's, the regular season champ has won three conference tournament titles and failed to win both 5 times. Ironically, App has been the lowest seed (8th) to win a tournament that the regular season champ failed to double. The last three tournaments have witnessed the regular season champ fail to advance to the NCAA tournament. In each of those three most recent tournaments, the #1 seed lost in the quarterfinals to the team that finished 8th best in the regular season.

Of the regular season champs, only UL matched our conference record with an identical 16-2 record in '17-'18. They failed to win the tournament, falling to 2nd place Ga State. Only Little Rock in '15-'16 had a better overall record than this year's App team. They were 17-3/27-4 prior to the tournament. Interestingly, their last regular season loss that year was to App.

I’d say if the last 3 went to a team that didn’t win the regular season, then odds are in our favor because it’d be unlikely for it to be 4 years in a row. It’s as good as a lock, I’d say.

I like your logic!

[Saint3333]

NET is just for seeding at this point.

JMU at 52 so neither of us will be high enough for an at large with another loss.

How high would App need to be in the Net for an at large bid do you estimate?

45, there are a minimum of 20 conference champions that will be ranked lower than 50 in NET with zero tourney upsets.

[canes_mj]

All around amazing experience...the entire season, but last night especially....have so thoroughly enjoyed this team and season; not just the winning but they way they play; nothing but good things to say and still feeling the post game glow today. Totally worth making the drive and braving the weather. Loved it. After the game my 8 year old got to meet several of the players and got a pic taken with one with the trophy and he was just beaming smiling. APP!!!

Very cool. Enjoy the days with your youngster , they pass too soon. Way too soon.

Thanks for the kind words...I always think of that too; I try to pack in as much as I can. Here's a post game shot (Idk why it's sideways)...seeing the kids' faces light up at these things brings it to a whole other level for me.

[AppFan11]

History is nice but no bearing…. we know the make up of this team…. easily the best constructed team…. deepest, higher performing on the road or at home… more size, not dependent on one or two scorers, plays very strong D without fouling…… and it’s pretty clear, that it will be us or JMU…..there is a huge gap between both of our teams and everybody else. Can we screw up….. sure but that would be the exception not the rule. 1-0 baby.

[hapapp]

History is nice but no bearing…. we know the make up of this team…. easily the best constructed team…. deepest, higher performing on the road or at home… more size, not dependent on one or two scorers, plays very strong D without fouling…… and it’s pretty clear, that it will be us or JMU…..there is a huge gap between both of our teams and everybody else. Can we screw up….. sure but that would be the exception not the rule. 1-0 baby.

No quarrel from me. But, it does show that the double bye is no guarantee of advancing. Given the finish of the top two, I agree that we are the deepest and most talented in the conference. My post wasn’t intended to suggest doom but it does go to the dynamic of tournament play in one bid leagues.

[AppSt94]

NET is just for seeding at this point.

JMU at 52 so neither of us will be high enough for an at large with another loss.

How high would App need to be in the Net for an at large bid do you estimate?

I’m not sure. The bigger obstacle would be teams that are 4th and 5th seed teams winning their tournaments. The more tournament favorites that win their respective tournament, helps out the chances of getting an at large bid.

[Stonewall]

All around amazing experience...the entire season, but last night especially....have so thoroughly enjoyed this team and season; not just the winning but they way they play; nothing but good things to say and still feeling the post game glow today. Totally worth making the drive and braving the weather. Loved it. After the game my 8 year old got to meet several of the players and got a pic taken with one with the trophy and he was just beaming smiling. APP!!!

Very cool. Enjoy the days with your youngster , they pass too soon. Way too soon.

Thanks for the kind words...I always think of that too; I try to pack in as much as I can. Here's a post game shot (Idk why it's sideways)...seeing the kids' faces light up at these things brings it to a whole other level for me.

That’s a keeper my friend. Cherish these days and the memories you make.

[Saint3333]

NET is just for seeding at this point.

JMU at 52 so neither of us will be high enough for an at large with another loss.

How high would App need to be in the Net for an at large bid do you estimate?

I’m not sure. The bigger obstacle would be teams that are 4th and 5th seed teams winning their tournaments. The more tournament favorites that win their respective tournament, helps out the chances of getting an at large bid.

45, 50 max.

[AppSt94]

The five lowest NET-ranked teams to get an at-large bid were … 2019 St. John’s (NET: 73); 2021 Wichita State (72); 2021 Michigan State (70); 2019 Arizona State (63) and 2019 Minnesota (61).

Important context here: the 2019 St. John’s team and last season’s Michigan State squad each owned five Quad 1 victories on Selection Sunday; 2019 Arizona State was 11-6 in the first two quads despite some bad losses. 2021 Wichita State was the big outlier, making the field despite only four Q1 & 2 wins combined (last year, we have may have mentioned, was weird). App is 2-0 in Quad 1 and 1-0 in Quad 2. UNCW at 112 is the only chance for us to improve on the Quad 2 record and that can only happen if they can jump up 11 spots to 101.

[Bigdaddyg1]

I know it's not done by the committee but for me I like to break down a season into thirds basically 10 games in each. The first 10 games by most every team includes maybe an early season tournament- for the big boys in the Bahamas, Maui or some other spot. That first 10 also includes a couple of glorified scrimmages against lower level schools for solid mid majors and the P schools. Those don't count and if you lose one that's hard to overcome. The second 10 is generally the first half of your conference slate with another (hopefully) quality non conference game. If that extra is on the road that's big. The last 10 for me is really important. Those who come on strong and finish those 10 at 8-2 or better are playing great down the stretch. Those who go .500 or worse basically have limped to the finish line and even if they were deemed to be good or great the first 2/3's it's how you finish. That being said to "punish" a really good team for a couple of bad losses in the first 2 weeks of the season is not right. I like the eyeball test. My eyeballs tell me that this App team is among the best 50 (at least) in the country.
I know that the 15 or so AQ conference champions that will get in are the main obstacle for us to overcome. Moving up the NET at this point is going to be near impossible but let's get 3 more wins and it won't matter.

[311neers]

I know it's not done by the committee but for me I like to break down a season into thirds basically 10 games in each. The first 10 games by most every team includes maybe an early season tournament- for the big boys in the Bahamas, Maui or some other spot. That first 10 also includes a couple of glorified scrimmages against lower level schools for solid mid majors and the P schools. Those don't count and if you lose one that's hard to overcome. The second 10 is generally the first half of your conference slate with another (hopefully) quality non conference game. If that extra is on the road that's big. The last 10 for me is really important. Those who come on strong and finish those 10 at 8-2 or better are playing great down the stretch. Those who go .500 or worse basically have limped to the finish line and even if they were deemed to be good or great the first 2/3's it's how you finish. That being said to "punish" a really good team for a couple of bad losses in the first 2 weeks of the season is not right. I like the eyeball test. My eyeballs tell me that this App team is among the best 50 (at least) in the country.
I know that the 15 or so AQ conference champions that will get in are the main obstacle for us to overcome. Moving up the NET at this point is going to be near impossible but let's get 3 more wins and it won't matter.

The football committee can forgive early season losses but the selection committee/NET doesn't seem like they will. Take away the NIU and Oregon State loss and we are up with JMU at 50, maybe higher.
Just have to win 3! Go 1-0.

[APPdiesel]

Anyone who was there Friday, did they honor CJ Huntley on senior night? It’s my understanding he has an extra Covid year if he wants it but being honored on senior day might indicate whether he intends to return for it or not.