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Coronavirus Superthread

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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:07 pm

Saint3333 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:53 am
We will get through this I have no doubt. Calming voices are needed more at this time than what if games by those that have little to no power to make decisions.
What if those that have the power to make decisions do not have the knowledge nor the intelligence to seek out and then follow that knowledge?


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by Saint3333 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:51 pm

This mindset baffles me. Every country has their best minds on the planet working on this, every country it doing their best with the best resources available. They will find a solution.

Thought we could all be on the same team for once.



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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:25 pm

Saint3333 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:51 pm
This mindset baffles me. Every country has their best minds on the planet working on this, every country it doing their best with the best resources available. They will find a solution.

Thought we could all be on the same team for once.
If that team consists of following the experts to the best of their ability then yes we can be on the same team. I think we will find a solution and one temporary positive thing is to shut things down for a bit. That is what the experts are saying. An expert in my view is someone that studies infectious diseases and public health as a starting point. Someone that had a radio show called Lovelines (someone posted something from the MD that used to host this show) might not quite do it for me, though I might listen to his thoughts on addiction.


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by asu66 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:46 pm

FWIW...

Science? Did someone say something about science? While some of you have continued to snipe/rant at each other over toilet paper and media reports, Covid-19 has continued to take its toll. Johns-Hopkins U. (Baltimore), with its Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), seems to be on-point in tracking Covid-19 as it continues to sweep across western civilization. The dashboard below (see link) is highly detailed, multi-layered and it's updated about every 15 minutes. Johns-Hopkins is respected world-wide for science and health research. This particular project has noted partners all around the world from UVA (Charlottesville) to the University of Tokyo. There's a lot of jaw-dropping data here if you have the time and interest!

Covid-19 is very much for-real...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:15 pm

asu66 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:46 pm
FWIW...

Science? Did someone say something about science? While some of you have continued to snipe/rant at each other over toilet paper and media reports, Covid-19 has continued to take its toll. Johns-Hopkins U. (Baltimore), with its Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), seems to be on-point in tracking Covid-19 as it continues to sweep across western civilization. The dashboard below (see link) is highly detailed, multi-layered and it's updated about every 15 minutes. Johns-Hopkins is respected world-wide for science and health research. This particular project has noted partners all around the world from UVA (Charlottesville) to the University of Tokyo. There's a lot of jaw-dropping data here if you have the time and interest!

Covid-19 is very much for-real...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
The Johns Hopkins site is where I was getting my numbers for the 4% mortality rate that I posted earlier in this thread.


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by Mjohn1988 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:24 pm

McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:07 pm
Saint3333 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:53 am
We will get through this I have no doubt. Calming voices are needed more at this time than what if games by those that have little to no power to make decisions.
What if those that have the power to make decisions do not have the knowledge nor the intelligence to seek out and then follow that knowledge?
What if they do?



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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by HighPointApp » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:29 pm

McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:07 pm
Saint3333 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:53 am
We will get through this I have no doubt. Calming voices are needed more at this time than what if games by those that have little to no power to make decisions.
What if those that have the power to make decisions do not have the knowledge nor the intelligence to seek out and then follow that knowledge?
Like our leaders during the swine flu? Anyone remember that?


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by mountaineerman » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:36 am

HighPointApp wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:29 pm
McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:07 pm
Saint3333 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:53 am
We will get through this I have no doubt. Calming voices are needed more at this time than what if games by those that have little to no power to make decisions.
What if those that have the power to make decisions do not have the knowledge nor the intelligence to seek out and then follow that knowledge?
Like our leaders during the swine flu? Anyone remember that?
Two people in my family got the pig flu. I remember quite well the Dr told us that the approach they were given was to let it run its course. Quite the different chaos from what we are seeing now.



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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:44 am

HighPointApp wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:29 pm
McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:07 pm
Saint3333 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:53 am
We will get through this I have no doubt. Calming voices are needed more at this time than what if games by those that have little to no power to make decisions.
What if those that have the power to make decisions do not have the knowledge nor the intelligence to seek out and then follow that knowledge?
Like our leaders during the swine flu? Anyone remember that?
Here is what I found from a reputable site https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... demic.html It is estimated that 0.001 percent to 0.007 percent of the world’s population died of respiratory complications associated with (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first 12 months the virus circulated."

The current visus is hitting around 4%. That is at best 4/0.007 = 571 times higher mortality and could be as high as 4/0.001 = 4000 times higher mortality.

Again this is a different scale and needs a different response.


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:52 am

Mjohn1988 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:24 pm
McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:07 pm
Saint3333 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:53 am
We will get through this I have no doubt. Calming voices are needed more at this time than what if games by those that have little to no power to make decisions.
What if those that have the power to make decisions do not have the knowledge nor the intelligence to seek out and then follow that knowledge?
What if they do?
Then we will come out of this better than we will if the leaders can not or will not seek out AND listen to the experts.

Given the presser from Friday that I listened to and later saw parts of I am not sure I support the thought of "What if they do?" Also given the way the VP handled situations in his home state a few years ago does not give me any feelings that he is capable of handling this current situation is a proper manner. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/pence ... -outbreak/


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by appstatealum » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:00 am

1.3% mortality rate nationwide.
.8% mortality rate in New York as of Friday.
The only true sample sizes we have to go off of are China (*cough*) and the Princess Cruise Line. Biological Mathematicians at University of London have used the most controlled samples to estimate the mortality rate at .5% (which yes, is deadlier than the flu), but they recognized most people who get COVID 19 will not show symptoms or will have mild cold like symptoms and will recover with no issues.

When flu season comes back around, no one will bat an eye as thousands of people die. 100s of 1000s out of work and we are digging an economic hole that will now take time to get out of. While everyone is worried about a flu that, while highly contagious, still doesn’t support the hysteria, we will have a ripple effect of lost jobs that won’t come back right away and people with debt and family problems right around the corner. 330 Million people and we are talking about a few hundred deaths from something that seemingly has made it way around to everyone, and for all we know, a lot of us had it between February2020 and November 2019. I’m not disregarding the loss of life, but we lose lives everyday from a multitude of things. And I prefer no one criticize me for bringing up the economy, because the economy is life, it provides “way of life” for people and dictates many other factors that can affect life. So again, I beg of you, do not post this media inflated garbage. If you actually listen to the scientists and health professionals (not the talking heads who “used to..” or “former...”) they are trying to reiterate the facts and the facts don’t support making everyone believe that “bodies are stacking” in the streets. Unlike a lot of you, I remain at work and working in the trenches of what is going on and I have seen the real devastation- that is thousands of shuttered businesses and job losses. Get a grip folks and turn off the news. When there are facts to support us worrying, then we can discuss it. Reality is, we should’ve isolated the vulnerable and not shut down the d*mn country.


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by Saint3333 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:05 am

Mcleansville as a proponent of listening to the experts I’d suggest using their data when discussing mortality rates. Their numbers are lower than 4% and continue to decline as testing increases. Still higher than other viruses, but let’s use guidance of the experts.

“ Nevertheless, given the residual uncertainties, health sector decision-makers and disease modelers probably should consider a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% for COVID-19 case-fatality risk estimates. The higher values could be more appropriate in resource poor settings where the quality of hospital and intensive care might be constrained. Higher values might also be appropriate in high-income countries with limited surge capacity in hospital services because elevated case-fatality risks could be seen at the peak of local epidemics. Because COVID-19 is expected to further spread globally, ongoing work using country-specific cohorts will be needed to more robustly clarify the case-fatality risk of this new disease.”

The lower mortality range can be achieved by flattening the curve, which is the goal based upon leadership following the advice of experts.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article



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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by appstatealum » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:16 am

Saint3333 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:05 am
Mcleansville as a proponent of listening to the experts I’d suggest using their data when discussing mortality rates. Their numbers are lower than 4% and continue to decline as testing increases. Still higher than other viruses, but let’s use guidance of the experts.

“ Nevertheless, given the residual uncertainties, health sector decision-makers and disease modelers probably should consider a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% for COVID-19 case-fatality risk estimates. The higher values could be more appropriate in resource poor settings where the quality of hospital and intensive care might be constrained. Higher values might also be appropriate in high-income countries with limited surge capacity in hospital services because elevated case-fatality risks could be seen at the peak of local epidemics. Because COVID-19 is expected to further spread globally, ongoing work using country-specific cohorts will be needed to more robustly clarify the case-fatality risk of this new disease.”

The lower mortality range can be achieved by flattening the curve, which is the goal based upon leadership following the advice of experts.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article
Bingo.

All the government is going off of is “possibilities” and preparing things “in case of”. As the experts have been saying, the more tests go out, the more we can grip our hands around it and control outcomes. The “unknowns” are what the media and unstable people keep focusing on, and that is what has caused the hysteria. Not the facts, the unknowns. Researchers know there are a plethora of mild cases or people showing no symptoms who will never get tested, and therefore mortality numbers are going to be significantly inflated, but as people get tested, the numbers will decrease drastically. It is honestly negligent to not reiterate that when they are holding press conferences so they can accurately downplay the media’s propensity to say “growing death toll and high mortality rates”, because at this point, that is not accurate. I commend the states/researchers/experts doing that- like Dr Tilson here in NC. She is very informative and grounded on all of this.


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by GreatAppSt » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:54 am



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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by GreatAppSt » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:03 pm

asu66 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:46 pm
FWIW...

Science? Did someone say something about science? While some of you have continued to snipe/rant at each other over toilet paper and media reports, Covid-19 has continued to take its toll. Johns-Hopkins U. (Baltimore), with its Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), seems to be on-point in tracking Covid-19 as it continues to sweep across western civilization.

Covid-19 is very much for-real...
Yup.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvkI2g22-0s


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by appstatealum » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:47 pm

If there was only a device where I could easily look up historical proof that scientists are wrong more times than right (which is a good thing) and things are rarely as they were first thought to be.....hmmmm 🤔


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:33 pm

appstatealum wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:00 am
1.3% mortality rate nationwide.
.8% mortality rate in New York as of Friday.
The only true sample sizes we have to go off of are China (*cough*) and the Princess Cruise Line. Biological Mathematicians at University of London have used the most controlled samples to estimate the mortality rate at .5% (which yes, is deadlier than the flu), but they recognized most people who get COVID 19 will not show symptoms or will have mild cold like symptoms and will recover with no issues.

When flu season comes back around, no one will bat an eye as thousands of people die. 100s of 1000s out of work and we are digging an economic hole that will now take time to get out of. While everyone is worried about a flu that, while highly contagious, still doesn’t support the hysteria, we will have a ripple effect of lost jobs that won’t come back right away and people with debt and family problems right around the corner. 330 Million people and we are talking about a few hundred deaths from something that seemingly has made it way around to everyone, and for all we know, a lot of us had it between February2020 and November 2019. I’m not disregarding the loss of life, but we lose lives everyday from a multitude of things. And I prefer no one criticize me for bringing up the economy, because the economy is life, it provides “way of life” for people and dictates many other factors that can affect life. So again, I beg of you, do not post this media inflated garbage. If you actually listen to the scientists and health professionals (not the talking heads who “used to..” or “former...”) they are trying to reiterate the facts and the facts don’t support making everyone believe that “bodies are stacking” in the streets. Unlike a lot of you, I remain at work and working in the trenches of what is going on and I have seen the real devastation- that is thousands of shuttered businesses and job losses. Get a grip folks and turn off the news. When there are facts to support us worrying, then we can discuss it. Reality is, we should’ve isolated the vulnerable and not shut down the d*mn country.
I think we do more than not bat an eye with the flu. Lots of drug stores advertise the flu shot being given in-store. My employer sets up many locations for workers and their dependents to have the flu shot. I read an article in yesterday's paper in Greensboro about, I think, the 138th flu death this year in NC. It is out there for those that notice and bother. Of course it is not as big in the news as Covid-19.


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:37 pm

GreatAppSt wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:03 pm
asu66 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:46 pm
FWIW...

Science? Did someone say something about science? While some of you have continued to snipe/rant at each other over toilet paper and media reports, Covid-19 has continued to take its toll. Johns-Hopkins U. (Baltimore), with its Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), seems to be on-point in tracking Covid-19 as it continues to sweep across western civilization.

Covid-19 is very much for-real...
Yup.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvkI2g22-0s
I have very mixed feelings about giving you a thanks BUT it is the Simpsons so you get that. I feel like I am running around on AppinVa behind his back. I feel a bit dirty.


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by AppinVA » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:09 pm

McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:37 pm
GreatAppSt wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:03 pm
asu66 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:46 pm
FWIW...

Science? Did someone say something about science? While some of you have continued to snipe/rant at each other over toilet paper and media reports, Covid-19 has continued to take its toll. Johns-Hopkins U. (Baltimore), with its Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), seems to be on-point in tracking Covid-19 as it continues to sweep across western civilization.

Covid-19 is very much for-real...
Yup.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvkI2g22-0s
I have very mixed feelings about giving you a thanks BUT it is the Simpsons so you get that. I feel like I am running around on AppinVa behind his back. I feel a bit dirty.
It’s okay. We’re in a state of emergency.


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Re: Coronavirus Superthread

Unread post by McLeansvilleAppFan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:45 pm

AppinVA wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:09 pm
McLeansvilleAppFan wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:37 pm
GreatAppSt wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:03 pm
asu66 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:46 pm
FWIW...

Science? Did someone say something about science? While some of you have continued to snipe/rant at each other over toilet paper and media reports, Covid-19 has continued to take its toll. Johns-Hopkins U. (Baltimore), with its Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), seems to be on-point in tracking Covid-19 as it continues to sweep across western civilization.

Covid-19 is very much for-real...
Yup.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvkI2g22-0s
I have very mixed feelings about giving you a thanks BUT it is the Simpsons so you get that. I feel like I am running around on AppinVa behind his back. I feel a bit dirty.
It’s okay. We’re in a state of emergency.
I do feel a little better now and not so "cheap" at least.


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