From a source called Higher Ed Works:
GREENVILLE (November 17, 2022) – For the first time in nine years, the UNC System saw enrollment decline this fall, according to a new report.

Because public universities currently receive state funds based largely on their enrollment, that could mean financial reductions for some. But the UNC Board of Governors is working to soften the blow, chiefly by raising the out-of-state enrollment cap at five more of the System’s 16 institutions.

The total headcount across the System for Fall 2022 was 239,663 students – a decrease of 4,837 students, or almost 2%. Undergraduate enrollment declined by 3,834, or 2%, from 2021 to 2022. Graduate student enrollment declined by 1,003 students, or 1.89%.



Twelve of the System’s 16 institutions saw enrollment decline this fall, while four – Elizabeth City State, Fayetteville State, N.C. A&T and UNC-Chapel Hill – increased enrollment.

Interesting. I was anticipating a drop across the nation starting in 2026 due to the ‘08 Great Recession which coincides with the start of the decrease in birth rate. Throw in rising costs to attend and this trend is likely to continue into the foreseeable future.

US birth rate:
2006: 2.11 (births per woman)
2007: 2.12
2008: 2.07
2010: 1.93
2015: 1.84
2020: 1.64

“It is now well below 2.1, the value considered to be “replacement fertility,” which is the rate needed for the population to replace itself without immigration.” Kearney/Levine Brookings Institute

FWIW Two or three of the HBCU's had slight increases in enrollment.

Costs of college have skyrocketed, pushing many to forgo universities.

Some have seen that a four-year degree is not a guaranteed job and that, in lots of cases, a two-year degree in a specialized field can get the same jobs.

Others are going the "juco" route, getting a two-year transferrable degree

Enrollment Sees Comeback as More than 50% of Community Colleges Report Increases
https://www.nccommunitycolleges.edu/new ... -increases

moonshine wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:51 pm

Interesting. I was anticipating a drop across the nation starting in 2026 due to the ‘08 Great Recession which coincides with the start of the decrease in birth rate. Throw in rising costs to attend and this trend is likely to continue into the foreseeable future.

US birth rate:
2006: 2.11 (births per woman)
2007: 2.12
2008: 2.07
2010: 1.93
2015: 1.84
2020: 1.64

“It is now well below 2.1, the value considered to be “replacement fertility,” which is the rate needed for the population to replace itself without immigration.” Kearney/Levine Brookings Institute

Yep. Not a good time to be dependent on student athletics fees.

appdaze wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:15 pm

Costs of college have skyrocketed, pushing many to forgo universities.

Some have seen that a four-year degree is not a guaranteed job and that, in lots of cases, a two-year degree in a specialized field can get the same jobs.

Others are going the "juco" route, getting a two-year transferrable degree

Enrollment Sees Comeback as More than 50% of Community Colleges Report Increases
https://www.nccommunitycolleges.edu/new ... -increases

Spot on . My daughter is a sophomore at app this year and the amount of money involved is incredible. Get your hands dirty and invest in a trade …you will be sitting pretty in a few years.

Yes costs are insane and probably some parents saying they won’t pay for a useless degree in this economic climate. I’m not enjoying just paying for my one class per semester right now as I just paid for next semester today. I think I had 3-4 classes for this price in the late 90s.

I’d say the seemingly large increase in pay for careers through trade school may have pushed some there as well.

biggie wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:41 pm

Yes costs are insane and probably some parents saying they won’t pay for a useless degree in this economic climate. I’m not enjoying just paying for my one class per semester right now as I just paid for next semester today. I think I had 3-4 classes for this price in the late 90s.

I’d say the seemingly large increase in pay for careers through trade school may have pushed some there as well.

At the last home game I had talked to an Alumni from the 70’s he asked me what I had spent …I said I’m on my third 9000$ check. He said Quote I didn’t have that in my entire education. Shewwww

mountaineerman wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:59 pm

biggie wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:41 pm

Yes costs are insane and probably some parents saying they won’t pay for a useless degree in this economic climate. I’m not enjoying just paying for my one class per semester right now as I just paid for next semester today. I think I had 3-4 classes for this price in the late 90s.

I’d say the seemingly large increase in pay for careers through trade school may have pushed some there as well.

At the last home game I had talked to an Alumni from the 70’s he asked me what I had spent …I said I’m on my third 9000$ check. He said Quote I didn’t have that in my entire education. Shewwww

My loans (graduated in 2002, 4 years at App) we’re just shy of $20k. Paid them off in 2007, just before shtf. My wife and I busted our butts on pretty small salaries to get out of that debt.

We have a whole lot more than that saved for our daughter’s college (more than triple), and it’s currently projected to pay for maybe 2 years tuition. It’s a different world out there now, and I’m not sure the genie can be put back into the lamp with regards to escalating costs.

I had my 10 years of fun paying mine off (‘02-‘12) and they weren’t too bad compared to today. No way all three of my kids can go without debt. Oldest wants LSU with out of state tuition, she needs a high paying job while in HS it appears.

Trades are the way to go now. Had an HVAC company owner tell me recently that he was turning away business because he can’t find competent employees. He said if he could find a competent employee he could guarantee them over $100k the first year.

BS degrees are aptly named now. Most are exactly that. We have a son at App and one at NCSU. The virtual/on line Covid classes were one thing but to continue them now at regular tuition costs is mind boggling. Admittedly there were ridiculous courses even back in my day but some of them now are unreal. Intro to fly fishing was an option for my App son.

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:56 am

Trades are the way to go now. Had an HVAC company owner tell me recently that he was turning away business because he can’t find competent employees. He said if he could find a competent employee he could guarantee them over $100k the first year.

What does he consider a competent employee? One who is willing to take calls at 3:00 in the morning? Furnish his own vehicle and equipment? Skilled and licensed in electrical and mechanical? How many years experience does he require?

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:56 am

Trades are the way to go now. Had an HVAC company owner tell me recently that he was turning away business because he can’t find competent employees. He said if he could find a competent employee he could guarantee them over $100k the first year.

It is the same in several professions that requires a college degree. In my profession, firms are struggling to find talent in the 0 to 5 years of experience range.

NewApp wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:15 am

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:56 am

Trades are the way to go now. Had an HVAC company owner tell me recently that he was turning away business because he can’t find competent employees. He said if he could find a competent employee he could guarantee them over $100k the first year.

What does he consider a competent employee? One who is willing to take calls at 3:00 in the morning? Furnish his own vehicle and equipment? Skilled and licensed in electrical and mechanical? How many years experience does he require?

You interested?

I've said for a while that I think we will see a "market crash" in higher ed within the next 20-30 years. Companies will realize that a lot of the jobs that "require" a college degree really don't, and it's easier and cheaper to train someone to do a job than to pay them more because of a degree. I think that this will be a good thing for lowering the cost of college, but it could be really bad for universities, especially smaller ones. Add onto that the stats above about a lower young population AND a shift to community/junior college caused by COVID... could get interesting.

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:53 am

NewApp wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:15 am

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:56 am

Trades are the way to go now. Had an HVAC company owner tell me recently that he was turning away business because he can’t find competent employees. He said if he could find a competent employee he could guarantee them over $100k the first year.

What does he consider a competent employee? One who is willing to take calls at 3:00 in the morning? Furnish his own vehicle and equipment? Skilled and licensed in electrical and mechanical? How many years experience does he require?

You interested?

Just judging from the requirements and expectations of my HVAC service for my heat pump. To do what your guy is expecting, takes many years of experience and a lot of training. Requires a great deal of electrical experience as well as physical strength..

NewApp wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:22 am

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:53 am

NewApp wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:15 am

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:56 am

Trades are the way to go now. Had an HVAC company owner tell me recently that he was turning away business because he can’t find competent employees. He said if he could find a competent employee he could guarantee them over $100k the first year.

What does he consider a competent employee? One who is willing to take calls at 3:00 in the morning? Furnish his own vehicle and equipment? Skilled and licensed in electrical and mechanical? How many years experience does he require?

You interested?

Just judging from the requirements and expectations of my HVAC service for my heat pump. To do what your guy is expecting, takes many years of experience and a lot of training. Requires a great deal of electrical experience as well as physical strength..

So, a competent employee, then?

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:26 am

NewApp wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:22 am

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:53 am

NewApp wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:15 am

appst89 wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:56 am

Trades are the way to go now. Had an HVAC company owner tell me recently that he was turning away business because he can’t find competent employees. He said if he could find a competent employee he could guarantee them over $100k the first year.

What does he consider a competent employee? One who is willing to take calls at 3:00 in the morning? Furnish his own vehicle and equipment? Skilled and licensed in electrical and mechanical? How many years experience does he require?

You interested?

Just judging from the requirements and expectations of my HVAC service for my heat pump. To do what your guy is expecting, takes many years of experience and a lot of training. Requires a great deal of electrical experience as well as physical strength..

So, a competent employee, then?

What are you talking about? I'm retired. Just saying that a skill in a trade doesn't necessarily mean a person can do the job. Many require a great deal of physical strength.