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The other coaches, how did they do it?
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
Why? I love to see that there is genuine passion for basketball at Appalachian. And many of the posters totally want to see Coach Fox succeed. I personally feel that we could be a very solid mid major program and obviously so do others. Let the healthy dialogue continue!
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
appfanjj wrote:Why? I love to see that there is genuine passion for basketball at Appalachian. And many of the posters totally want to see Coach Fox succeed. I personally feel that we could be a very solid mid major program and obviously so do others. Let the healthy dialogue continue!
Healthy dialogue is one thing. Delusional ramblings is quite another. We lost five seniors and a junior from the 2015-16 squad and we didn't regress. That in itself is progress. Our freshmen and sophomores this year already put together a season as good as the senior heavy squad in 15-16. Jim Fox took over a program that was in shambles. To pretend that it's a quick fix is simply not reality. I think next year we are looking at a team that goes .500 in conference and then with an upperclassmen heavy team two years from now, I think you'll see us challenge for a Sun Belt Championship. Anybody that says that our recruiting is substandard is simply wrong and I struggle to take their opinion on our basketball program seriously.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
[quote="TheMackAttack"]
Healthy dialogue is one thing. Delusional ramblings is quite another. quote]
I hear you. Sometimes we can have a chicken little mentality around here.
But in your opinion how far into a coaches tenure is it ok to begin expressing displeasure with blowout losses and sub .500 seasons? I realize some of the angst in this fan base is not Fox's problem and is the result of only having gone to the NCAA's twice and not in the last 20 years However, a lot of APPs are simply tired of dwelling in the abyss and want to see a competitive program. Not sure there is anything wrong with wanting that kind of success or expressing that desire on a athletic message board.
Healthy dialogue is one thing. Delusional ramblings is quite another. quote]
I hear you. Sometimes we can have a chicken little mentality around here.
But in your opinion how far into a coaches tenure is it ok to begin expressing displeasure with blowout losses and sub .500 seasons? I realize some of the angst in this fan base is not Fox's problem and is the result of only having gone to the NCAA's twice and not in the last 20 years However, a lot of APPs are simply tired of dwelling in the abyss and want to see a competitive program. Not sure there is anything wrong with wanting that kind of success or expressing that desire on a athletic message board.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
Here's the thing: When Fox took the job, I think he made righting the program's APR ship his short-term focus, and decided to take more of a long-term approach to building the roster. He could have chosen a different strategy - leaning heavily on jucos and transfers to try for a quick fix. While I know some people don't consider that building "the right way," I don't have a problem with it - I'd love a season like Little Rock had last year. But it does usually mean a coach is looking to win fast and move on to the next job ASAP.
Whichever approach you prefer, I think we can all respect what Fox is trying to do. But once you understand his approach, I think you have to give it a chance to work. You can't say you want a coach who builds for the long run and then complain that the wins don't come overnight.
Would we all have preferred a .500 season to a 20-loss one this year? Of course. But ultimately, going .500 isn't the goal. If a couple 20-loss seasons is the price we have to pay for building a good program, I can handle that - so long as the payoff comes eventually. I think I heard somewhere that we were one of the 20 youngest teams in the nation this year. As much as some may get tired of hearing that we're young, that doesn't make it less true.
We'll have more experience next year. That should translate to more wins. How many more - who knows? But I want to give this coach a chance to fully realize his plan before we judge whether it's working.
Whichever approach you prefer, I think we can all respect what Fox is trying to do. But once you understand his approach, I think you have to give it a chance to work. You can't say you want a coach who builds for the long run and then complain that the wins don't come overnight.
Would we all have preferred a .500 season to a 20-loss one this year? Of course. But ultimately, going .500 isn't the goal. If a couple 20-loss seasons is the price we have to pay for building a good program, I can handle that - so long as the payoff comes eventually. I think I heard somewhere that we were one of the 20 youngest teams in the nation this year. As much as some may get tired of hearing that we're young, that doesn't make it less true.
We'll have more experience next year. That should translate to more wins. How many more - who knows? But I want to give this coach a chance to fully realize his plan before we judge whether it's working.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
I may be wrong, but didn't MBB win just 3 games the season before Cremins arrived. In just 4 years he took us to the Big Dance. Best college coach I ever saw.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
I don't think anyone is calling for Fox's head. I believe most folks think he should have the length of his contract to prove his worth. The question for me is, what should we look for that shows we are heading in the right direction? This past season was a frustrating one for a fan of App State basketball. We showed flashes of potential but then seemed to commit the same mistakes in March that we did in December. We certainly haven't demonstrated an ability to put the ball in the basket consistently nor have we shown much inclination for stopping our opponents from doing so.
I get the youth argument and that is why I think our expectations should be much higher next year, we can't use that argument any longer. I'm optimistic that with a year of playing experience under their belts and an off season devoted to becoming stronger, that we can achieve at least middle of the pack status in conference play. Short of that would be a big disappointment.
Interesting stat: In Fox's first year at the helm with Capel's players we won 9 conference games. In the next two seasons, we won 10 (7&3) conference games combined.
I get the youth argument and that is why I think our expectations should be much higher next year, we can't use that argument any longer. I'm optimistic that with a year of playing experience under their belts and an off season devoted to becoming stronger, that we can achieve at least middle of the pack status in conference play. Short of that would be a big disappointment.
Interesting stat: In Fox's first year at the helm with Capel's players we won 9 conference games. In the next two seasons, we won 10 (7&3) conference games combined.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
And Capel's players were the ones who put us in the APR situation that helped get him fired and shot Fox in the foot when he first got here. Your point being?hapapp wrote:Interesting stat: In Fox's first year at the helm with Capel's players we won 9 conference games. In the next two seasons, we won 10 (7&3) conference games combined.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
I dont think some folks realize what a mess the program was and I'll say again the damage from the Devonte Graham fiasco
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
It's interesting but I'm not sure it's particularly telling of anything. For one thing, "Capel's players" included some veterans, which we didn't have this past year because of the recruiting gaps that followed his departure.hapapp wrote:
Interesting stat: In Fox's first year at the helm with Capel's players we won 9 conference games. In the next two seasons, we won 10 (7&3) conference games combined.
For another, to be blunt, that first team was just lucky. They were 6-2 in games decided by five points or less, ranking 31st nationally in "luck" on kenpom. That sort of thing tends to regress to the mean, and indeed it did for us - the following year we were 2-6 in those games (#219 in luck). That's how you get a minus-three shift in wins without actually being a worse team.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
No argument with your numbers but there is no such thing as luck.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
I'll grant you that part of winning/losing close games is how well a team executes, maintains poise, etc. But of course there's such thing as luck in sports.bcoach wrote:No argument with your numbers but there is no such thing as luck.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
No argument just a friendly discussion. What is an example of luck in a game?EastHallApp wrote:I'll grant you that part of winning/losing close games is how well a team executes, maintains poise, etc. But of course there's such thing as luck in sports.bcoach wrote:No argument with your numbers but there is no such thing as luck.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
How about opponent free throw shooting?bcoach wrote:No argument just a friendly discussion. What is an example of luck in a game?EastHallApp wrote:I'll grant you that part of winning/losing close games is how well a team executes, maintains poise, etc. But of course there's such thing as luck in sports.bcoach wrote:No argument with your numbers but there is no such thing as luck.
Great example: Clemson. Last year their opponents shot just below 71% in free throws. This year they shot better than 76% - highest in the nation. In related news, Clemson went 4-12 in games decided by 6 points or less. (By comparison, Gonzaga's opponents shot less than 66% on FTs.)
I don't think Clemson got worse at defending free throws. They just got unlucky.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
I don't know where the luck comes in. They just played teams with more skill.EastHallApp wrote:How about opponent free throw shooting?bcoach wrote:No argument just a friendly discussion. What is an example of luck in a game?EastHallApp wrote:I'll grant you that part of winning/losing close games is how well a team executes, maintains poise, etc. But of course there's such thing as luck in sports.bcoach wrote:No argument with your numbers but there is no such thing as luck.
Great example: Clemson. Last year their opponents shot just below 71% in free throws. This year they shot better than 76% - highest in the nation. In related news, Clemson went 4-12 in games decided by 6 points or less. (By comparison, Gonzaga's opponents shot less than 66% on FTs.)
I don't think Clemson got worse at defending free throws. They just got unlucky.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
But there are also things that, while they might not purely described as luck, are still variables that tend to even out over the very long term, but not necessarily a single season.
Basically, an average college basketball game has somewhere around 130 to 150 possessions. If a game is decided by 5-6 points or less, that means the teams were within 1% to 2% of those possessions of being even. When you're talking about margins that small, literally any number of individual plays could make the difference in the outcome - a desperation 3 that goes in; an 80% FT shooter missing the front end of a 1-and-1; even a missed call by an official.
Again, if you played 100 close games in a season, those things more or less even out. But since most teams only play 5-10 per year, some teams are going to have more than their share of those breaks, and some will have less.
Thus, the same team (mostly) that goes 6-2 in close games one year can go 2-6 the next.
Basically, an average college basketball game has somewhere around 130 to 150 possessions. If a game is decided by 5-6 points or less, that means the teams were within 1% to 2% of those possessions of being even. When you're talking about margins that small, literally any number of individual plays could make the difference in the outcome - a desperation 3 that goes in; an 80% FT shooter missing the front end of a 1-and-1; even a missed call by an official.
Again, if you played 100 close games in a season, those things more or less even out. But since most teams only play 5-10 per year, some teams are going to have more than their share of those breaks, and some will have less.
Thus, the same team (mostly) that goes 6-2 in close games one year can go 2-6 the next.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
I agree with every thing you have said 100%. I just don't see the luck. The shooter missed, the ref missed the call, and the desperation shot went in. All because of a skill or a lack of skill. Now superstition is a whole nuther thing(: I wear the same hat to every game that I wore at the 2005 NC game and will NEVER wear white to a gameEastHallApp wrote:But there are also things that, while they might not purely described as luck, are still variables that tend to even out over the very long term, but not necessarily a single season.
Basically, an average college basketball game has somewhere around 130 to 150 possessions. If a game is decided by 5-6 points or less, that means the teams were within 1% to 2% of those possessions of being even. When you're talking about margins that small, literally any number of individual plays could make the difference in the outcome - a desperation 3 that goes in; an 80% FT shooter missing the front end of a 1-and-1; even a missed call by an official.
Again, if you played 100 close games in a season, those things more or less even out. But since most teams only play 5-10 per year, some teams are going to have more than their share of those breaks, and some will have less.
Thus, the same team (mostly) that goes 6-2 in close games one year can go 2-6 the next.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
Well, as I said, I think it's a combination of luck and skill.
Take the game where we lost to GS on the 4-point play last year:
- It was a bad play by App to be close enough to get called for a foul.
- It was bad luck that the ref called the foul when arguably there wasn't one.
- It was a great play by the GS shooter to make a 40-foot shot at the buzzer.
- Even so, it was bad luck from App's perspective that he made it - clearly that's a shot that he would miss far more often than not.
I'll just leave it at this: If you don't believe in luck, just ignore my earlier post. For those who do, App had better luck in Fox's first year than afterward.
Take the game where we lost to GS on the 4-point play last year:
- It was a bad play by App to be close enough to get called for a foul.
- It was bad luck that the ref called the foul when arguably there wasn't one.
- It was a great play by the GS shooter to make a 40-foot shot at the buzzer.
- Even so, it was bad luck from App's perspective that he made it - clearly that's a shot that he would miss far more often than not.
I'll just leave it at this: If you don't believe in luck, just ignore my earlier post. For those who do, App had better luck in Fox's first year than afterward.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
Since you didn't specify basketball but said sports how about this. Football player (RB-QB-WR) running with the ball, fumbles, 4 players of the opposing team are surrounding the ball when it bounces right into the hands of the only other player from the fumbling team. Skill? Chance? or luck?bcoach wrote:No argument just a friendly discussion. What is an example of luck in a game?EastHallApp wrote:I'll grant you that part of winning/losing close games is how well a team executes, maintains poise, etc. But of course there's such thing as luck in sports.bcoach wrote:No argument with your numbers but there is no such thing as luck.
Since we've been on both sides of that scenario I though I would use that as an example. Can bring others.
Hockey game. Player is tripped, falling down and twisting he can't see the puck but in pulling his arms around to break his fall he drops his stick, which hits the puck, which pushes it forward off the skate of another player with his back turned and bounces into the net for a goal. Skill? or luck? And that happened during an NHL game not too long ago.
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Re: The other coaches, how did they do it?
We need to make our own "luck". Question: How many players on this years roster return next year?