Rick83 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:53 pm
AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:05 pm
Saint3333 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:35 am
Black Saturday wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:20 am
ASU_Victory_Lap wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:53 am
Opening is ULL -1. Interested to see how much it moves in three days. It’s already down to -3.
Vegas Insider opened with APP -2.
5 point move in one day on public opinion. It's like we have players sitting out in key positions for that type of move.
The first move was the sharp money yesterday which moved it to ULL -1, which is troubling. The subsequent move to ULL -3 is public money, not as troubling.
This likely means the computers are saying the game is a push, which I believe it will be as it will come down to turnovers and 1-2 plays.
Here is the thing though. We have fans so worried about where we are ranked. If we are a top 25 caliber team this game should not be a 1-2 play or 1 turnover difference. A top 25 caliber team would beat ULL by 10-20 points for sure. So if we do lose or only beat them by a FG then I hope our fans so worried about rankings will shut up. If we are worthy of a ranking then this game won't be as close as people think.
You really can't understand how it's fun for us to speculate and evaluate what it would take to get ranked and an invite to the NY6 can you? This is our hobby...it's fun for us...we're not worried or wasting time because it's fun. Have I mentioned that this is just fun for us as a hobby and an interest? I for one will not shut up if we lose or only win by a FG because we could still end up ranked down the road. We finished 26th in the AP voting last year,so we were nearly ranked, with a horrible G5 loss and no P5 wins. And in fact, if Virginia Tech had beaten Cincy in their bowl game we would have been ranked so I for one, will not stop speculating about it.
You just said if that had happened we would have been ranked. The only "IF" that matters is if we win. I guess I will never get why it is so fun to keep guessing on something we can't control. However, it amazes me at how people chime in and guess without actually looking at the polls. Many are saying things that are purely based on perception.
Here are a few general observations about how voters give weight to wins and losses and for those of you who are so obsessed you have to realize these things.
1. If you beat a ranked or RV team you are given credit and gain more votes. No matter if that team is G5 or P5. If the voters think highly enough of a team to vote for them then they will give credit to any team with a winning record who takes them down.
2. Losing to an unranked G5 who is not even RV is brutal and kills your chances but if the G5 team is ranked then as long as you played close you won't suffer badly.
3. If we beat ULL by say 7 but a couple teams behind us in RV beat a ranked team by even 3 or less they will get more credit. Should they? Absolutely. Anytime you beat a ranked team you should get credit for it.
4. Last, the SBC is going to get less credit than MWC and AAC. The rules you think apply to us don't 100% apply to them. Voters consider both of those leagues better.
Where I disagree with the voters is clearly the AAC is best but I think the MWC is barely better than the SBC. I would love to see the top 3 teams in the MWC face the top 3 in the SBC. I'm not sure it would be a clean sweep like many in the media believe.
Also, here is the area of the AP poll that matters for us. Just track these results and you should see pretty quickly who will be ranked. I expect the winner of Wash/Arizona or if Michigan State upsets Wisconsin for us to be passed by those. Keep an eye on #18 ASU vs #35 WSU. I could see WSU pass us and flip with ASU if they win that one.
Other than that, unless there are upsets of the teams ranked 18-27 meaning they lose a game they should not, we definitely won't rise.
The ones that make the most sense to help us are if Wake Forest, UVA, Baylor, Memphis, and Minnesota lose. If 4 of those teams lose then we will be ranked for sure. If 2 or 3 lose, then we will need to hope nobody below us beats a ranked team. I still think worrying about all this is pointless though. We will be ranked when we are ranked.
17 Iowa (4-1) 454 vs #9 Penn State
18 Arizona State (4-1) 388 vs #35 Washington State
19 Wake Forest (5-0) 380 vs Louisville
20 Virginia (4-1) 353 at Miami FL
21 SMU (6-0) 285 Bye
22 Baylor (5-0) 260 vs Texas Tech
23 Memphis (5-0) 189 at #40T Temple
24 Texas A&M (3-2) 165 vs #1 Alabama
25 Cincinnati (4-1) 118 at Houston
26 Minnesota (5-0) 80 vs Nebraska
27 Missouri (4-1) 64 vs Ole Miss
28 Appalachian State (4-0) 61 at Louisiana Lafayette
29 Washington (4-2) 54 at #32T Arizona
30 Tulane (4-1) 25 vs UCONN
31 California (4-2) 20 Bye
32 Michigan State (4-2) 17 at #8 Wisconsin
33 Arizona (4-1) 11 vs #27 Washington
34 UCF (4-2) 9 Bye
35T USC (3-2) 5 at #10 Notre Dame