Here is the link to the fall sports streaming schedule.
https://appstatesports.com/news/2023/8/ ... edule.aspx
https://appstatesports.com/news/2023/8/ ... edule.aspx
APP -3.5
- AppStateMtneer
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Re: APP -3.5
Should be the best weather we have had in a while at home... SHOW UP and SUPPORT! Buy tickets!
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Re: APP -3.5
I know the transitive property doesn't apply, but ULL struggled (and was lucky) to beat ULM at home and we crushed ULM. I respect ULL, but I think this line moves towards -6 by game time.AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:51 pmULL is much better than Troy. If we somehow beat ULL like a drum as well then I will be very impressed. I'll just be happy to win and stay undefeated against these guys.
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Re: APP -3.5
I don't remember what the line did before. Most will say okay they won by 10 on the road and are playing even better now. Let's go with App -3.5 but I see ESPN.com has the line at -6. It will be interesting to see what those who gamble do here. I could see some saying App should cover easy or some saying it is tough to win a second time and stay away from this game.WASU 93 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:28 pmI know the transitive property doesn't apply, but ULL struggled (and was lucky) to beat ULM at home and we crushed ULM. I respect ULL, but I think this line moves towards -6 by game time.AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:51 pmULL is much better than Troy. If we somehow beat ULL like a drum as well then I will be very impressed. I'll just be happy to win and stay undefeated against these guys.
Last edited by AppStFan1 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: APP -3.5
Actually, they are only amazingly accurate when it stands out that they nailed a line: (like the Northwestern/UMass game this year)
This year:
APP favored by 33 over ETSU (closing line). We won 42-7 (covered by 6)
APP favored by 22.5 over UNCC. We won 56-41 (failed to cover by 7.5)
UNC favored by 2, We won 34-31 (5 points)
Favored by 15 over Coastal, won by 19
ULL favored by 2, we won by 10
Favored by 15.5 over ULL. Won by 45
Favored by 27.5 over South Ala. WON By 27
Favored by 14 over GaSo, lost by 3
USC favored by 7, we won by 3
Favored by 15 over GaSt, won by 29
Favored by 28.5 over TexSt, won by 22
Favored by 11.5 over Troy, won by 35
The South Al game was the only game where the Spread was within a FG of the Actual Score.
We are 8-4 against the spread this year.
On the Over/Under only 4 of 12 games (33%) were within a FG of the Actual (ETSU, GaSo, TexSt, Troy)
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Re: APP -3.5
I was about to say the same ting. The line is accurate sometimes but they are off as well. Based on who is favored we were suppose to go 9-3. We went 11-1. I hope we beat the spread by a good bit. It would be a really good win, especially since it is difficult to beat a team twice in the same year.WASU 93 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:59 pmActually, they are only amazingly accurate when it stands out that they nailed a line: (like the Northwestern/UMass game this year)
This year:
APP favored by 33 over ETSU (closing line). We won 42-7 (covered by 6)
APP favored by 22.5 over UNCC. We won 56-41 (failed to cover by 7.5)
UNC favored by 2, We won 34-31 (5 points)
Favored by 15 over Coastal, won by 19
ULL favored by 2, we won by 10
Favored by 15.5 over ULL. Won by 45
Favored by 27.5 over South Ala. WON By 27
Favored by 14 over GaSo, lost by 3
USC favored by 7, we won by 3
Favored by 15 over GaSt, won by 29
Favored by 28.5 over TexSt, won by 22
Favored by 11.5 over Troy, won by 35
The South Al game was the only game where the Spread was within a FG of the Actual Score.
We are 8-4 against the spread this year.
On the Over/Under only 4 of 12 games (33%) were within a FG of the Actual (ETSU, GaSo, TexSt, Troy)
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Re: APP -3.5
Thanks for grabbing those results. As I suspected NOT shockingly accurate. If anyone worries about a game we are in when a dog or gets too cocky when we are prohibitive favorites your not watching us play. I personally couldn’t care less what the line is.AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:17 pmI was about to say the same ting. The line is accurate sometimes but they are off as well. Based on who is favored we were suppose to go 9-3. We went 11-1. I hope we beat the spread by a good bit. It would be a really good win, especially since it is difficult to beat a team twice in the same year.WASU 93 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:59 pmActually, they are only amazingly accurate when it stands out that they nailed a line: (like the Northwestern/UMass game this year)
This year:
APP favored by 33 over ETSU (closing line). We won 42-7 (covered by 6)
APP favored by 22.5 over UNCC. We won 56-41 (failed to cover by 7.5)
UNC favored by 2, We won 34-31 (5 points)
Favored by 15 over Coastal, won by 19
ULL favored by 2, we won by 10
Favored by 15.5 over ULL. Won by 45
Favored by 27.5 over South Ala. WON By 27
Favored by 14 over GaSo, lost by 3
USC favored by 7, we won by 3
Favored by 15 over GaSt, won by 29
Favored by 28.5 over TexSt, won by 22
Favored by 11.5 over Troy, won by 35
The South Al game was the only game where the Spread was within a FG of the Actual Score.
We are 8-4 against the spread this year.
On the Over/Under only 4 of 12 games (33%) were within a FG of the Actual (ETSU, GaSo, TexSt, Troy)
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Re: APP -3.5
The accuracy of the line is not measure by the outcome of the actual game, rather if the money is equal for both sides. Lines are set to draw equal action for both teams. The public moves the line first and then the smart money moves it again as the game gets closer. At least that is how it was explained to me.
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Re: APP -3.5
That is correct. The sports book would prefer to have equal money on both sides. The sports book usually takes a 10% commission (the juice) from the win. So, they keep all of the losses and 10% of the wins. When the line moves, the public is betting heavy on one side of the line, so the book moves the line to “even out” the money, if possible.AppSt94 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:02 amThe accuracy of the line is not measure by the outcome of the actual game, rather if the money is equal for both sides. Lines are set to draw equal action for both teams. The public moves the line first and then the smart money moves it again as the game gets closer. At least that is how it was explained to me.
If the line moved from -3.5 to -6, there was a lot of money being placed on the favorite (APP), so the books moved the line to try to get more money on ULL.
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Re: APP -3.5
I may be wrong, but I believe it takes about $500,000 in wagers to move the line a point.WASU 93 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:44 pmThat is correct. The sports book would prefer to have equal money on both sides. The sports book usually takes a 10% commission (the juice) from the win. So, they keep all of the losses and 10% of the wins. When the line moves, the public is betting heavy on one side of the line, so the book moves the line to “even out” the money, if possible.AppSt94 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:02 amThe accuracy of the line is not measure by the outcome of the actual game, rather if the money is equal for both sides. Lines are set to draw equal action for both teams. The public moves the line first and then the smart money moves it again as the game gets closer. At least that is how it was explained to me.
If the line moved from -3.5 to -6, there was a lot of money being placed on the favorite (APP), so the books moved the line to try to get more money on ULL.
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Re: APP -3.5
Yeah, had I known it opened at 3.5 I would have jumped all over that. Still think we cover 6.5 but not quite as confident for sure.Black Saturday wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:01 pmUp to -6.5
https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-fo ... las-vegas/
- appstatealum
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Re: APP -3.5
AppSt94 nailed it. Depending on the weather forecast, I expect the line to close at a spread closer to 10.
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