Rankings December 1

[AppStFan1]

I think Cincy is a quality team and no doubt would present a tough challenge. I won't predict how many times out of 10 we would win because we don't really have any measuring stick. I do think, however, that based on the fact that they didn't face either Navy or SMU negates all the talk about how tough the AAC quality-wise. Moreover, they barely beat some of the weaker teams on their schedule. Given that, its difficult for me to understand how they are 20 and we are 21.

The reality is, we weren't likely to get to Dallas with both Memphis and Boise ahead of us. Its not that we've been deprived of our opportunity to make the Cotton Bowl, its the fact that the committee has essentially guaranteed the AAC will be the G5 rep.

The committee could have made one slight change which would have made the entire decision more equitable. Keep Memphis where they are because they might be the top dog right now. Hate to say it but probably keep Boise ahead of us for now. They should have dropped Cincinnati below us simply because they lost. They should be at around 25 this week. Now after the championship games they could make a more fair decision. If Memphis takes out Cincinnati they get the slot. If App wins big but Cincinnati barely beats Memphis and Boise barely beats Hawaii we should get serious consideration. A close App win coupled with a significant Cincinnati win probably pushes either the Bearcats or Boise ahead but bottom line, ranking Cincinnati ahead of us this week was stupid. They will have a lot of explaining to do but I agree with the expected response listed above. It was a tough decision and all of the teams looked really good but team X just had a better body of work.

It won't happen but here is what it would take for us to have a legit 50/50 chance at the NY6. This won't happen but this is what would have to.

1. App State win by 35-50 over ULL
2. Boise State lose
3. Cincy beat Memphis in a close game.

And again, that would only give us a 50/50 shot in that room. I still don't think that would guarantee it. If Memphis wins or Cincy wins and Boise wins then there is nothing we can do. We have to have 2 of those 3 teams lose and we must win by a margin I really don't think we could win by.

It is going to Memphis, Cincy, or Boise and I really think it is 80% that the AAC winner gets it.