Probability of 3-0 v. 0-3 start

[bigdaddyg]

Even 2 and 3 star (for what that's worth) get bigger, stronger, faster and more mature. Star stuff doesn't measure heart and desire.

So if Miami manages to beat us by 20+ at home, it will have to be because we didn't have enough heart and desire to beat them instead of the fact that they had more talent? I don't see that being the case. Most years our guys have all the heart and desire in the world but can't pull off wins against guys that are faster and stronger. I would love to win this game, I'm just trying to be realistic about the differences in our two programs.

No what I am saying is sometimes a guy is a 2 or 3 star recruit but blossoms into a stud college player and maybe even a solid pro. Sometimes you never know which way it will go. I am not naive to think that we have the same raw talent. I am also completely aware of the differences in programs.

[mtd Security]

I think 1-2 is the worst case seriano.

2-1 has a great shot. Miami will not be ready. Last time Miami won at 3333ft was, I think it was Colorado in 1993.

3-0 better shot than you think. Tennessee should win, but I think it will be closer then most be think.

I wasn't really asking for predictions for our week four record (as was suggested) nor was I asking what would constitute a "good start", but I appreciate those comments very much. This is what I'm interested in. Why do you expect the UT game will be closer than most think? I ask because that is EXACTLY what I thought about the Clemson game last year. Clemson started last season ranked 12th (ish) and Tennessee starts 10th. So, Clemson was better than anyone last August expected and Tennessee still has something to prove. Clemson won by 31 and the Tennessee line is about 22. That seems about right. And how do we have a great shot against Miami? In what area do we have a meaningful advantage? A crowd of 35,000 isn't going to intimidate them, that's an at Duke number. With respect to the altitude, San Diego State wins in Laramie; an altitude difference of 7,065ft with some regularity (I use that as an example because well, SDSU and UW should be on average closer in talent and coaching than we are with Miami, ceteris paribus.

Honestly!!! You really think that Tennessee is the Clemson of last year. They will not win the SEC east. 3 losses on their schedule: Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. All every in the year. Also, At Texas A&M. I think tennessee is overrated. If App does find a way to win, then Tennessee will be lucky to make a bowl game. Just saying.

[AppAttack]

1-2. Blown out by Tenn, comfortable win over ODU, close loss to the U.

[StripedSquad18]

I guess to answer the original question I see the probability of 0-3 much better than 3-0. If I was to put number to it I would say....

3-0- 1%
2-1- 14%
1-2- 70%
0-3- 15%

I'm a firm believer in the idea of any given Saturday any thing can happen, but in terms of probability, with the talent of the two power 5 programs, these are my thoughts. I think its important to look at the way in which we compete with these teams in things that will translate into long success (play distribution, ball safety, blown assignments, penalties, and most important health). No doubt everyone on here taking the time to read and comment want the same outcomes, but I am afraid this is one of those situations where we may have to look for wins other than on the scoreboard. Anyways just my two cents.

P.S. This is my first post and I have been reading on here for a few years now off and on. Graduated and just recently moved back to Boone for work and figured I better commit to the conversation with as much as I have been reading comments during job training. haha. Nice to meet y'all.

[QueencityApp]

1-2. Blown out by Tenn, comfortable win over ODU, close loss to the U.

Our year may look very similar to what Ark State did last year. They had an OCC schedule of #8 USC (curb stomped), #21 Mizzou (close loss at home), Missouri St (blow out Win) and Toledo (blown out on the road). Went 1-3 OCC and plowed through the conference schedule.

I try and take the blinders off when thinking about our match-ups, especially the OOC. Here's how I think it will go this year...just my take

Tennessee - don't think we will be curb stomped 55-6 like USC did to Ark St but we should keep this under 20pt spread
ODU - (+14pt) win at home
Miami - close loss at home
Akron - (+7) win on the road

[bigdaddyg]

What seems to get us against the P5's are the "oh shit" quick stuff. We are slugging it out, game is close then we fumble or throw a bad pic 6 then allow another quick score and all of a sudden we go down and can't recover. Avoid that meltdown stuff and it turns into "any given Saturday, or Thursday night.

[MtnMan09]

1-2. Blown out by Tenn, comfortable win over ODU, close loss to the U.

Our year may look very similar to what Ark State did last year. They had an OCC schedule of #8 USC (curb stomped), #21 Mizzou (close loss at home), Missouri St (blow out Win) and Toledo (blown out on the road). Went 1-3 OCC and plowed through the conference schedule.

I try and take the blinders off when thinking about our match-ups, especially the OOC. Here's how I think it will go this year...just my take

Tennessee - don't think we will be curb stomped 55-6 like USC did to Ark St but we should keep this under 20pt spread
ODU - (+14pt) win at home
Miami - close loss at home
Akron - (+7) win on the road

We do this same song and dance every year about how its "unlikely" that we will get blown out by our P5 opponent. But history just isn't in our side in this argument. We have to go back to 2009 to the ECU game (29-24) to find a close one. Other than that:

2010 Fla 48-10 38 point loss
2011 VT 66-13 53 point loss
2012 ECU 35-13 22 point loss
2013 UGA 45-6 39 point loss
2014 Michigan 52-14 38 point loss
2015 Clemson 41-10 31 point loss

I know we were not FBS in 09-13 but I wouldn't say that those opponents were even remotely as good as 2016 Tenn will be. As much as I would like to believe, I really don't think we can credibly say that we will keep anything under 20 in these type of games, especially one against an SEC opponent. Look forward to the day when we can stay competitive with these guys through four quarters though.

[WataugaMan]

My 2 cents: Although I doubt we beat Tennessee, I don't see another "Clempson Type" blow out again (melt down). This game will be a lot closer than many think. The Apps will not make the same multiple mental mistakes as they did in last year's opening game. After our first four games I see us at worst 2-2 and best 3-1. 50-50 either way.

[luvyosef]

To be truthful gentlemen, Akron won a bowl game also in 2015. They are not going to be a walk in the park either. Let's play them one at a time.

[daytonacane]

I think 1-2 is the worst case seriano.

2-1 has a great shot. Miami will not be ready. Last time Miami won at 3333ft was, I think it was Colorado in 1993.

3-0 better shot than you think. Tennessee should win, but I think it will be closer then most be think.

Cane fan here. I don't think altitude will be a factor for us as our guys will be in good shape. That is a factor that Richt initially addressed. Not sure how fast Richt can coach-up our players and install discipline (I think we had the most penalties of any D1 team last year)but rest assured we will be as ready as possible for you. We are quite well aware of the potential of your team - we haven't forgotten about Michigan and know you are the top of your conference. I will be staying at a friend's home on Grandfather Mountain in the Golf and County Club in Linville. I was up there a couple of years ago @ the end of the school year and attended a big flea-market type sale of items students left in the dorms. I believe it went to charity - great idea. We drove by Appalachian campus - beautiful area. You have a lot to be proud of.

What is your total undergrad enrollment? Many people are surprised by how small Miami is. We only have an undergrad enrollment of approximately 10,000 and located on US1 south of Miami in Coral Gables which is equivalent to Beverly Hills, CA real estate.

Looking forward to a good and hopefully injury-free game.

GO 'CANES

[appchicago]

Cane fan here. I don't think altitude will be a factor for us as our guys will be in good shape. That is a factor that Richt initially addressed. Not sure how fast Richt can coach-up our players and install discipline (I think we had the most penalties of any D1 team last year)but rest assured we will be as ready as possible for you. We are quite well aware of the potential of your team - we haven't forgotten about Michigan and know you are the top of your conference.

Thanks for coming by. We look forward to this game. And boosterism aside, I think most of us are fully aware of the Canes potential this year. Even under Golden, you had a better year last year than most remember, overshadowed by a few key losses. And with Richt in the saddle, we'd be insane not to go into this one wide awake.

I was up there a couple of years ago @ the end of the school year and attended a big flea-market type sale of items students left in the dorms. I believe it went to charity - great idea. We drove by Appalachian campus - beautiful area. You have a lot to be proud of.

That's the Big Sale! Keeps a bunch of stuff out of the landfill, lets people score useful stuff for cheap, and last year raised over $22k for charity. Win-win-win. I worked on that project when I was in school, but back then (15 years ago) we only raised about 20% of what they bring in now. Awesome how it's grown. Just one example of what we love about App.

What is your total undergrad enrollment? Many people are surprised by how small Miami is. We only have an undergrad enrollment of approximately 10,000 and located on US1 south of Miami in Coral Gables which is equivalent to Beverly Hills, CA real estate.

Conversely, we're bigger than most think. Over 18k total enrollment, which is up something like 50% over where it was when I was there in the early '00s. Part of the UNC system, along with the 16 other public universities in NC. A football (and big time outdoor adventure) school in a basketball state.

Looking forward to a good and hopefully injury-free game.

GO 'CANES

We all look forward to rolling out the red carpet for you and your fellow 'Canes. Before and after the game anyway.