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Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

appgrad95&97
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by appgrad95&97 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:24 pm

Rick83 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:14 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:53 pm
Rick83 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:49 pm
AppGrad78 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:44 pm
I'm pretty sure we're not getting a "down" UNC team. We're getting a team that was down in 2018. The Tar Heels went 2-9 with two overtime losses and four losses decided by a touchdown or less. In my book, that team was snakebit. That's partly due to Larry Fedora's struggles as a head coach and partly due to the fickle nature of football (see the Virginia Tech loss). I'd say we'll see a vastly improved UNC team under Mack Brown in 2019. We underestimate them at our peril.
They also had like 13 players suspended for multiple games because of selling their shoes or something last season.
There should never be an argument that we are one of the best 25 teams in the country if we loose those games.
I'm not sure why you're taking this in that direction but since you have. I would think that it would depend on what else they do. In 2018, we lost 2 games, one badly to a G5 Sun Belt team and an OT loss to a Big 10 team that went 9-4. Despite those two losses we finished at #26 in the AP poll and would have been top 25 had Virginia Tech beaten Cincinnati in their bowl game. So, I would think it would depend on how the UNC and USC games go and what kind of season they each have as well as how we handle the rest of our games. The 2018 season will not have a direct bearing on how 2019 goes, especially in UNC's situation. The Tar Heels in particular are not going to want to lose to us and will be highly motivated, the fact that they're facing Clemson the week after us helps. Now, I'm hoping and even expecting to win in Chapel Hill and Columbia but both games will be a challenge.
We did not end the season ranked. You CANNOT be "ranked" 26th in a top 25 poll. It's not even an honorable mention. It's like claiming to be almost pregnant because you had sex. Fun for sure, but not with child.



Yosef84
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by Yosef84 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:30 pm

appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:28 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:24 pm
I know what the reaction to this is going to be: but we really HAVE to do more than be competitive against our ACC and SEC opponents next year.
Agree. For years we have rationalized losing to the P5 teams by saying that we got them on their way up. We know how close we came with PSU, UT and Wake. A break here or there and we take them all...but.

Now we get a down UNC team and a middle of the road USC team. If we are truly a legit top 25 team we must beat at least one of them and avoid a bad loss against the other.
The problem with Yosef's Cabin is that there's not a "I'm deep in love" with your post option. I would add, were Tennessee, Miami, or Wake on the "way up".
Tennessee was probably not although going into the season they were in the discussion as one of the favorites to win the SEC East. It didn't turn out that way although they had an "ok" season. Their wheel ran off after that. Miami and Wake were both definitely in up cycles when we played. Wake had one of their best seasons in years including a win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Miami had their retuning son (Mark Richt) and a lot of excitement. They had a much stronger performance that year than they had had in some time, although they've declined since. Miami was very disappointing because if we had played them in one of their first two games, App probably wins or has a shot. Unfortunately, they figured out their OL issues and they got on top of us.



Rick83
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by Rick83 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:39 pm

appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:24 pm
Rick83 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:14 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:53 pm
Rick83 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:49 pm
AppGrad78 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:44 pm
I'm pretty sure we're not getting a "down" UNC team. We're getting a team that was down in 2018. The Tar Heels went 2-9 with two overtime losses and four losses decided by a touchdown or less. In my book, that team was snakebit. That's partly due to Larry Fedora's struggles as a head coach and partly due to the fickle nature of football (see the Virginia Tech loss). I'd say we'll see a vastly improved UNC team under Mack Brown in 2019. We underestimate them at our peril.
They also had like 13 players suspended for multiple games because of selling their shoes or something last season.
There should never be an argument that we are one of the best 25 teams in the country if we loose those games.
I'm not sure why you're taking this in that direction but since you have. I would think that it would depend on what else they do. In 2018, we lost 2 games, one badly to a G5 Sun Belt team and an OT loss to a Big 10 team that went 9-4. Despite those two losses we finished at #26 in the AP poll and would have been top 25 had Virginia Tech beaten Cincinnati in their bowl game. So, I would think it would depend on how the UNC and USC games go and what kind of season they each have as well as how we handle the rest of our games. The 2018 season will not have a direct bearing on how 2019 goes, especially in UNC's situation. The Tar Heels in particular are not going to want to lose to us and will be highly motivated, the fact that they're facing Clemson the week after us helps. Now, I'm hoping and even expecting to win in Chapel Hill and Columbia but both games will be a challenge.
We did not end the season ranked. You CANNOT be "ranked" 26th in a top 25 poll. It's not even an honorable mention. It's like claiming to be almost pregnant because you had sex. Fun for sure, but not with child.
Wow. That's your response; so let me re-phrase my reference to finishing "#26"...we finished with the 26th most votes in the final AP poll...most people would just say 26th but whatever. Have a great day my friend.



Rick83
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by Rick83 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:01 pm

Yosef84 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:30 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:28 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:24 pm
I know what the reaction to this is going to be: but we really HAVE to do more than be competitive against our ACC and SEC opponents next year.
Agree. For years we have rationalized losing to the P5 teams by saying that we got them on their way up. We know how close we came with PSU, UT and Wake. A break here or there and we take them all...but.

Now we get a down UNC team and a middle of the road USC team. If we are truly a legit top 25 team we must beat at least one of them and avoid a bad loss against the other.
The problem with Yosef's Cabin is that there's not a "I'm deep in love" with your post option. I would add, were Tennessee, Miami, or Wake on the "way up".
Tennessee was probably not although going into the season they were in the discussion as one of the favorites to win the SEC East. It didn't turn out that way although they had an "ok" season. Their wheel ran off after that. Miami and Wake were both definitely in up cycles when we played. Wake had one of their best seasons in years including a win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Miami had their retuning son (Mark Richt) and a lot of excitement. They had a much stronger performance that year than they had had in some time, although they've declined since. Miami was very disappointing because if we had played them in one of their first two games, App probably wins or has a shot. Unfortunately, they figured out their OL issues and they got on top of us.
Miami also got lucky with the Cox touchdown that called back for a bogus holding call and then his getting injured and leaving the game so early. Also, I've always wondered how the UGA game in 2017 would have gone (it would have been closer at least) if we hadn't helped them figure out that Fromm was their guy at QB...if I remember correctly we had had stymied their starting QB.



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AtlAppMan
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by AtlAppMan » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:05 pm

Richt prepared Miami very well for our game. They played to our weakness Of inability to get our defensive plays in timely on an uptempo offense. Richt obviously saw that from past games and season under Woody. That was common problem then. They took advantage in a huge way and we did not adjust quick enough and got buried.

Cox’s TD play hurt bad and injury worse but due to defense issue we still don’t win that game.

They were better prepared than we were. That day we were out coached and outplayed. You don’t miss a tackle on first defensive play and give up 75 yard TD run and unless you have the ability to generate a quick response which we didn’t at that time. Satt’s plan was to slow down game tempo against P5 I.e. Tenn game.



bigdaddyg
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:30 pm

appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:28 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:24 pm
I know what the reaction to this is going to be: but we really HAVE to do more than be competitive against our ACC and SEC opponents next year.
Agree. For years we have rationalized losing to the P5 teams by saying that we got them on their way up. We know how close we came with PSU, UT and Wake. A break here or there and we take them all...but.

Now we get a down UNC team and a middle of the road USC team. If we are truly a legit top 25 team we must beat at least one of them and avoid a bad loss against the other.
The problem with Yosef's Cabin is that there's not a "I'm deep in love" with your post option. I would add, were Tennessee, Miami, or Wake on the "way up".
I should have chosen my words more carefully. Clemson, UGA and presumably PSU were considered “up”. Many expected the same from UT. The three games I mentioned were there for the taking but we didn’t get it done. Say what you want about UNC but they aren’t top notch right now.



Yosef84
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by Yosef84 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:42 am

Rick83 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:01 pm
Yosef84 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:30 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:28 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:24 pm
I know what the reaction to this is going to be: but we really HAVE to do more than be competitive against our ACC and SEC opponents next year.
Agree. For years we have rationalized losing to the P5 teams by saying that we got them on their way up. We know how close we came with PSU, UT and Wake. A break here or there and we take them all...but.

Now we get a down UNC team and a middle of the road USC team. If we are truly a legit top 25 team we must beat at least one of them and avoid a bad loss against the other.
The problem with Yosef's Cabin is that there's not a "I'm deep in love" with your post option. I would add, were Tennessee, Miami, or Wake on the "way up".
Tennessee was probably not although going into the season they were in the discussion as one of the favorites to win the SEC East. It didn't turn out that way although they had an "ok" season. Their wheel ran off after that. Miami and Wake were both definitely in up cycles when we played. Wake had one of their best seasons in years including a win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Miami had their retuning son (Mark Richt) and a lot of excitement. They had a much stronger performance that year than they had had in some time, although they've declined since. Miami was very disappointing because if we had played them in one of their first two games, App probably wins or has a shot. Unfortunately, they figured out their OL issues and they got on top of us.
Miami also got lucky with the Cox touchdown that called back for a bogus holding call and then his getting injured and leaving the game so early. Also, I've always wondered how the UGA game in 2017 would have gone (it would have been closer at least) if we hadn't helped them figure out that Fromm was their guy at QB...if I remember correctly we had had stymied their starting QB.
The Cox injury and the holding call were huge in terms of momentum. The first play from scrimmage where we gave up a long TD run was on us, but that play was an anomaly. We defended the run well for the rest of the game. Anybody who watched the game knows that Miami outplayed us that day but it wasn't by as much as the score implies. It was a missed opportunity because we didn't play our best (by a long shot). That's ancient history now though....just hope it doesn't repeat.



SpeedkingATL
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by SpeedkingATL » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:53 am

Yosef84 wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:42 am
Rick83 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:01 pm
Yosef84 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:30 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:28 pm


Agree. For years we have rationalized losing to the P5 teams by saying that we got them on their way up. We know how close we came with PSU, UT and Wake. A break here or there and we take them all...but.

Now we get a down UNC team and a middle of the road USC team. If we are truly a legit top 25 team we must beat at least one of them and avoid a bad loss against the other.
The problem with Yosef's Cabin is that there's not a "I'm deep in love" with your post option. I would add, were Tennessee, Miami, or Wake on the "way up".
Tennessee was probably not although going into the season they were in the discussion as one of the favorites to win the SEC East. It didn't turn out that way although they had an "ok" season. Their wheel ran off after that. Miami and Wake were both definitely in up cycles when we played. Wake had one of their best seasons in years including a win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Miami had their retuning son (Mark Richt) and a lot of excitement. They had a much stronger performance that year than they had had in some time, although they've declined since. Miami was very disappointing because if we had played them in one of their first two games, App probably wins or has a shot. Unfortunately, they figured out their OL issues and they got on top of us.
Miami also got lucky with the Cox touchdown that called back for a bogus holding call and then his getting injured and leaving the game so early. Also, I've always wondered how the UGA game in 2017 would have gone (it would have been closer at least) if we hadn't helped them figure out that Fromm was their guy at QB...if I remember correctly we had had stymied their starting QB.
The Cox injury and the holding call were huge in terms of momentum. The first play from scrimmage where we gave up a long TD run was on us, but that play was an anomaly. We defended the run well for the rest of the game. Anybody who watched the game knows that Miami outplayed us that day but it wasn't by as much as the score implies. It was a missed opportunity because we didn't play our best (by a long shot). That's ancient history now though....just hope it doesn't repeat.
Just a note that the year of the near miss at UT, we played a very healthy UT team that was simply devastated by injuries later in the season, contributing to some of their lackluster performance.



Cro-Magnon App
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by Cro-Magnon App » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:41 pm

Ranking Charlotte #120 in any poll/model is too high.



ericsaid
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by ericsaid » Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:35 pm

Yosef84 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:30 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:28 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:24 pm
I know what the reaction to this is going to be: but we really HAVE to do more than be competitive against our ACC and SEC opponents next year.
Agree. For years we have rationalized losing to the P5 teams by saying that we got them on their way up. We know how close we came with PSU, UT and Wake. A break here or there and we take them all...but.

Now we get a down UNC team and a middle of the road USC team. If we are truly a legit top 25 team we must beat at least one of them and avoid a bad loss against the other.
The problem with Yosef's Cabin is that there's not a "I'm deep in love" with your post option. I would add, were Tennessee, Miami, or Wake on the "way up".
Tennessee was probably not although going into the season they were in the discussion as one of the favorites to win the SEC East. It didn't turn out that way although they had an "ok" season. Their wheel ran off after that. Miami and Wake were both definitely in up cycles when we played. Wake had one of their best seasons in years including a win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Miami had their retuning son (Mark Richt) and a lot of excitement. They had a much stronger performance that year than they had had in some time, although they've declined since. Miami was very disappointing because if we had played them in one of their first two games, App probably wins or has a shot. Unfortunately, they figured out their OL issues and they got on top of us.
Tennessee finished 9-4 that year and dismantled Virginia Tech. I'd say that had App won and UT finished 8-5, a win over a SEC school with a winning record looks really nice on paper. Then you have App who should've been Penn State. Had Penn State beat Ohio State, I believe their season would've ended better than it did because of the motivation factor to keep pushing. Wake had a good year that year as well, by Wake standards. The problem is that App really should've won that game.

Here are the conclusions to those games:
  • Fumble forced into the end zone, Devan Stringer dives over the ball for the third time that game, recovered by Tennessee. App fails to score on their shot.
  • App throws interception in OT. Had the ball been a few inches lower, it's likely a TD. Not Thomas's fault because there was a linebacker underneath forcing him to go high
  • TWO MISSED FG



ericsaid
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by ericsaid » Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:37 pm

Yosef84 wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:42 am
Rick83 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:01 pm
Yosef84 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:30 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:28 pm


Agree. For years we have rationalized losing to the P5 teams by saying that we got them on their way up. We know how close we came with PSU, UT and Wake. A break here or there and we take them all...but.

Now we get a down UNC team and a middle of the road USC team. If we are truly a legit top 25 team we must beat at least one of them and avoid a bad loss against the other.
The problem with Yosef's Cabin is that there's not a "I'm deep in love" with your post option. I would add, were Tennessee, Miami, or Wake on the "way up".
Tennessee was probably not although going into the season they were in the discussion as one of the favorites to win the SEC East. It didn't turn out that way although they had an "ok" season. Their wheel ran off after that. Miami and Wake were both definitely in up cycles when we played. Wake had one of their best seasons in years including a win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Miami had their retuning son (Mark Richt) and a lot of excitement. They had a much stronger performance that year than they had had in some time, although they've declined since. Miami was very disappointing because if we had played them in one of their first two games, App probably wins or has a shot. Unfortunately, they figured out their OL issues and they got on top of us.
Miami also got lucky with the Cox touchdown that called back for a bogus holding call and then his getting injured and leaving the game so early. Also, I've always wondered how the UGA game in 2017 would have gone (it would have been closer at least) if we hadn't helped them figure out that Fromm was their guy at QB...if I remember correctly we had had stymied their starting QB.
The Cox injury and the holding call were huge in terms of momentum. The first play from scrimmage where we gave up a long TD run was on us, but that play was an anomaly. We defended the run well for the rest of the game. Anybody who watched the game knows that Miami outplayed us that day but it wasn't by as much as the score implies. It was a missed opportunity because we didn't play our best (by a long shot). That's ancient history now though....just hope it doesn't repeat.
I was at that game. The score could've been a lot worse. App never adjusted to the screen pass or the wheel routes run off of the bubble screens. The players couldn't get on or off the field fast enough and it was just a logistical nightmare. I believe if that game was played a second time, there is likely a closer game. But this meeting came down to game prep during the week. Watching it was excrutiating and yet I stayed until the final whistle.

If I remember correctly, Miami let off the gas in the 3rd quarter and began running clock instead of throwing, yet another, 50 yard + TD.



Yosef84
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by Yosef84 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:51 pm

ericsaid wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:37 pm
Yosef84 wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:42 am
Rick83 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:01 pm
Yosef84 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:30 pm
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm


The problem with Yosef's Cabin is that there's not a "I'm deep in love" with your post option. I would add, were Tennessee, Miami, or Wake on the "way up".
Tennessee was probably not although going into the season they were in the discussion as one of the favorites to win the SEC East. It didn't turn out that way although they had an "ok" season. Their wheel ran off after that. Miami and Wake were both definitely in up cycles when we played. Wake had one of their best seasons in years including a win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Miami had their retuning son (Mark Richt) and a lot of excitement. They had a much stronger performance that year than they had had in some time, although they've declined since. Miami was very disappointing because if we had played them in one of their first two games, App probably wins or has a shot. Unfortunately, they figured out their OL issues and they got on top of us.
Miami also got lucky with the Cox touchdown that called back for a bogus holding call and then his getting injured and leaving the game so early. Also, I've always wondered how the UGA game in 2017 would have gone (it would have been closer at least) if we hadn't helped them figure out that Fromm was their guy at QB...if I remember correctly we had had stymied their starting QB.
The Cox injury and the holding call were huge in terms of momentum. The first play from scrimmage where we gave up a long TD run was on us, but that play was an anomaly. We defended the run well for the rest of the game. Anybody who watched the game knows that Miami outplayed us that day but it wasn't by as much as the score implies. It was a missed opportunity because we didn't play our best (by a long shot). That's ancient history now though....just hope it doesn't repeat.
I was at that game. The score could've been a lot worse. App never adjusted to the screen pass or the wheel routes run off of the bubble screens. The players couldn't get on or off the field fast enough and it was just a logistical nightmare. I believe if that game was played a second time, there is likely a closer game. But this meeting came down to game prep during the week. Watching it was excrutiating and yet I stayed until the final whistle.

If I remember correctly, Miami let off the gas in the 3rd quarter and began running clock instead of throwing, yet another, 50 yard + TD.
It's been a while but I was at the game too. Despite the 14 points referenced above (first play and Cox TD called back) the game wasn't out of reach in the 3rd quarter. The two bubble route passes that burned us for big gainers happened in the third quarter and those were the back breakers. Only then did the "let off the gas." Of course it could have been worse....That's a truism. My point was simply that the first long run for a TD on the first play from scrimmage put us on our heals. Cox's run would have established some momentum but then it goes away...and he is out for the game.

App didn't play well against Miami. I'm not claiming we did. I'm not trying to say we played well other than those two plays....we didn't! I"m saying those two prevented us from getting into the game and set up the back breaking 3Q. If the score at half had been 17 - 10, a very different App team plays the second half. Pure speculation so it's fine if you don't agree. That's what these boards are for.



appgrad95&97
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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by appgrad95&97 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:02 pm

Isn't winning games against P5 programs the point (yes, winning the Sunbelt and a bowl game...)? So many programs like us, programs we look down on, have. We haven't in a LONG time. We've had chances. It 2019. It's time. OUR TIME.



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Re: Early 2019 S&P+ Rankings

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:04 pm

sixtoes9134 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:16 am
We will crack the Top 25 when we go to Chapel Hill and beat UNC
Only if we are undefeated heading into that game. If we lose any game outside of South Carolina we will not, and should not, be ranked. I know that is what you meant but we need to say it. Can't overlook those before them. If we do lose one of those games we can beat UNC by 35 and it won't matter.



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