Probability of 3-0 v. 0-3 start

[appgrad95&97]

I think that it is clearly more probable that we start the season 0-3 than it is we start 3-0. Personally, I put the probability of at 3-0 start at 0.009 (0.9%) and the probability of an 0-3 start at .48 (48%). I am genuinely interested in board’s opinion on this.

[sixtoes9134]

I just don't see us losing to ODU. Likewise, don't see us beating Tennessee, but I darn sure think we have a good chance against Miami, especially at the Rock. My head says we go 1-2, my heart says 2-1.

[appbio91]

I just don't see us losing to ODU. Likewise, don't see us beating Tennessee, but I darn sure think we have a good chance against Miami, especially at the Rock. My head says we go 1-2, my heart says 2-1.

I am in this camp also. Hoping to be healthy with at least 2 wins, I'll take healthy with 1 win after the first 3. I am worried about getting banged up before conference starts.

[Rekdiver]

1-2

[B30020]

I see see 2-1. A loss to Tenn but a record 35k crowd will propell us to field goal victory against the U. If we play UTenn close and beat the U we could be in the top 25 after 3 weeks.

[bigdaddyg]

I have grown to hate these questions. No offense whatsoever to the originator. I don't want to predict wins and losses for my team. I expect my Panthers to go 19-0 winning it all. I expect my Mountaineers to go 13-0 with a New Years Day bowl win. Both expectations highly unlikely so I don't want to point to expected losses.

[asu66]

Totally agree. Nothing good is generated by negative vibes. I'm outta here!

[B30020]

I see us going 2-1. Tough loss to Tennessee but we will be at ODU and Miami. We will beat Miami by less than a touchdown in front of a record 35,000+ crowd. We could then be in the top 25 and on our way to a very good season.

[Gonzo]

If we go 1-0 we go 3-0. The most likely week 4 record is 1-2. I'm hopeful for 2-1. 3-0 would be winning the lottery.

[mtd Security]

I think 1-2 is the worst case seriano.

2-1 has a great shot. Miami will not be ready. Last time Miami won at 3333ft was, I think it was Colorado in 1993.

3-0 better shot than you think. Tennessee should win, but I think it will be closer then most be think.

[AppOrange]

With 2 starters out, I'm going 1-3, hoping for good showings, keeping it within 19 at Tenn and and a 4th quarter game against Miami.

[hapapp]

An 0-3 start is far more likely than a 3-0 start. I would think the greater likelihood is a record that is neither.

Again, game 4 may be the most important of our OOC games, especially if we do fall in both P5 contests. Akron on the road will be no easy task.

[Saint3333]

OOC percentages:

2-2 - 65%
1-3 - 25%
3-1 - 8%
0-4 - 1%
4-0 - <1%

[appgrad95&97]

I think 1-2 is the worst case seriano.

2-1 has a great shot. Miami will not be ready. Last time Miami won at 3333ft was, I think it was Colorado in 1993.

3-0 better shot than you think. Tennessee should win, but I think it will be closer then most be think.

I wasn't really asking for predictions for our week four record (as was suggested) nor was I asking what would constitute a "good start", but I appreciate those comments very much. This is what I'm interested in. Why do you expect the UT game will be closer than most think? I ask because that is EXACTLY what I thought about the Clemson game last year. Clemson started last season ranked 12th (ish) and Tennessee starts 10th. So, Clemson was better than anyone last August expected and Tennessee still has something to prove. Clemson won by 31 and the Tennessee line is about 22. That seems about right. And how do we have a great shot against Miami? In what area do we have a meaningful advantage? A crowd of 35,000 isn't going to intimidate them, that's an at Duke number. With respect to the altitude, San Diego State wins in Laramie; an altitude difference of 7,065ft with some regularity (I use that as an example because well, SDSU and UW should be on average closer in talent and coaching than we are with Miami, ceteris paribus.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

Interesting that you are comparing the atmosphere at Duke to the atmosphere at The Rock. Wallace Wade is the opposite of Cameron Indoor. In regards to Miami, they were 69th in total defense last year and 68th in total offense. They finished the season losing to Washington State. Massey has them 46th after last season compared to our 45th. I know they will be better with Richt, however, I think we will be better with continuity with great coaching and key players returning in Lamb, Cox, Law and Boggs. People should be asking why they think Miami can come into The Rock and beat App State.

[bigdaddyg]

I am still not predicting our record but I really don't see the Miami game not close. With all respect to Mark Richt is he going to just turn them around that fast? To compare altitudes is a bit of a stretch. I think we simply have enough talent to compete with them head to head.

[appbio91]

Yea, 3000ft is not really an altitude issue except for weather. So Miami will be in heaven if typical Boone Sept (cooler, low humidity) prevails that day. 35,000 in the Rock is going to be extremely uncomfortable unless additional seating is installed for that game.

[t4pizza]

I am still not predicting our record but I really don't see the Miami game not close. With all respect to Mark Richt is he going to just turn them around that fast? To compare altitudes is a bit of a stretch. I think we simply have enough talent to compete with them head to head.

Miami has not played well lately, but there is still a large talent gap between the U and us. Richt will return them to a big time winning program, just hopefully he can't do it before the third game of the season. I am not saying that we can't compete and win this game, just that they have more talent then we do and to think otherwise is naive. We get excited for a solid 3 star recruit, they have plenty of those and a lot more with higher rating (caveat- I don't put a ton of stock on lower level star ratings bc most don't get evaluated), heck they currently have 8 espn300 kids lined up for 2017. Talent hasn't been the issue at Miami, it has been coaching and they just significantly upgraded that area of concern.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

I am still not predicting our record but I really don't see the Miami game not close. With all respect to Mark Richt is he going to just turn them around that fast? To compare altitudes is a bit of a stretch. I think we simply have enough talent to compete with them head to head.

Miami has not played well lately, but there is still a large talent gap between the U and us. Richt will return them to a big time winning program, just hopefully he can't do it before the third game of the season. I am not saying that we can't compete and win this game, just that they have more talent then we do and to think otherwise is naive. We get excited for a solid 3 star recruit, they have plenty of those and a lot more with higher rating (caveat- I don't put a ton of stock on lower level star ratings bc most don't get evaluated), heck they currently have 8 espn300 kids lined up for 2017. Talent hasn't been the issue at Miami, it has been coaching and they just significantly upgraded that area of concern.

It's also naive to compare our players by the star ratings out of high school. Most of our best players are juniors and seniors now, being 3 years removed from high school and our coaches have been one of the best at finding and developing talent. I'm not sure the guys at Miami have developed that much in the past 3 years due to, as you mentioned, coaching. I for one don't feel the talent gap is that big as far as the starting line up is concerned. The one area that it may be is in the depth because a lot of our depth comes in the form of freshmen and sophomores which are still developing, so Miami may have the better younger talent.

[t4pizza]

Yes, talent doesn't always play up to the expectations and that is my hope in our game. That Richt will not have that team long enough to get them to play to their talent. Hence the reason I think it is going to be a competitive game. But that being said, from a purely talent point of view, they have it in spades over us. We may get ours to perform better and play harder and win the game, but they have more talent. Heck, I don't hear any draft ppl talking about Lamb like they do about Kaaya and theres a strong argument that Lamb has had a better career but based on Kaaya's talent he is getting big time draft talk. Once again, I am only talking about their teams perceived talent, no necessarily the execution.