Boise St. not going to BE afterall

[AppSt94]

No I didn't mean it as debate. You brought up an interesting point and I meant it as a question. I really don't have the answer and was just curious.

It would be interesting to see what basketball schools would want to do.

Here is a what if. What if some of them drop football such as a Duke and join the Big East who drops football, and they just play the big four in the other sports? OR! is that just nuts and I need to go home and rest.

I don't think they drop football, but rather play down a level below FBS, whatever that ends up being and play bb. Could schools like Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Louisville do this?

[firemoose]

Just read on ESPN that MWC is looking to add Tulsa from CUSA. If SDSU doesn't come back by the end of the month, then the likely replacement is Tulsa. If SDSU does come back to the MWC, then Tulsa would be added whenever the MWC would want to move to 14 teams.

I don't see ASU getting an invite anywhere for at least another month.

So if we assume that the top 64 reclassify and take a large price of the pie. Will moving up and incurring the added expense of 44 scholarships and increased travel justify the nominal increase in revenue?

If the truly worst case happens then our potential choices will also change. If the "power conferences" form and reclassify then the remaining FBS conferences will also change because of the money available. What would most likely happen would be the remaining conferences, who will also be faced with travel and scholarships expenses and less revenue, would move among themselves to form more regional conferences to cut down on travel and, as I stated in my OP, the NCAA will step in and we will have another top to bottom change. The top "power conferences" would be, say Div-I (sorry, I know we all hate these division names but it's just for demostration purposes), and would play among themselves, including a playoff. The next tier, let's call it Div-IA (the remaining current FBS schools and some of those FCS schools that fit the new conferences and are lucky enough to get an invite) would continue but with a drop in scholarships, not to the current FCS level but probably in the 70's, and they would have a playoff also. The remaining current FCS schools, those that have no interest in moving up or those that don't get an invite to move up, would drop to a new D-II. The current D-II teams would have to make a choice of either fortifying their programs up to compete in the new division or they would drop to D-III. Keep in mind that this is only if the worst case for the smaller schools and conferences happens.

What is listed above has actually been discussed, in pieces, in articles that I have read and conversations I have had in the past few months. I just put all of it together in one place so it's not all that far off base. It's a big worry among the current smaller conference commissioners and one reason that everyone just stopped when Maryland and Rutgers announced. Most are waiting to see what happens next before they start moving again. A lot of people aren't happy because they had planned to have most moves done long before signing day so they could tell recruits at least some information but right now everything is up in the air. Someone could still surprise and make a couple of more moves to try and solidify their positions (like the BE and MWC are each trying to do) but for the most part I think the major moves are on hold until the Maryland finger in the dam is either pulled out and the dam bursts or the hole gets patched up, aka the ACC stands firm on the 50 mil.

I, for one, am truly tired of all of this and just wish that SOMETHING would happen and we would know, one way or the other, what we are going to do. This whole process is giving me a headache.

[AppinVA]

I don't think it will be as drastic as you think. Schools need to show they're capable of winning more than they lose, or the money from boosters will start to dry up. If the top 64 pull away and play one another exclusively, then the bottom 32 of that group will become losers. As it stands now, the 33rd best team wins seven or eight games and gets to go to postseason. Not great, by any stretch, but it's usually enough to keep the fan base pacified.

[firemoose]

I don't think it will be as drastic as you think. Schools need to show they're capable of winning more than they lose, or the money from boosters will start to dry up. If the top 64 pull away and play one another exclusively, then the bottom 32 of that group will become losers. As it stands now, the 33rd best team wins seven or eight games and gets to go to postseason. Not great, by any stretch, but it's usually enough to keep the fan base pacified.

I agree it really shouldn't come to this but as far back as my OP this was about the by far worse case situation. But the very fact that reporters are writing stories about it, commissioners are worrying about it, and coaches are discussing it shows that it's at least a possible situation that could happen. From a personal standpoint I believe that, if the "doomsday scenario" happens and the ACC caves on at least some of the exit fee for Maryland then it could get very bad very quickly but that it should "HOPEFULLY" stop before it gets to what has been discussed. I would hope that cooler heads would prevail and that some middle ground could be reached between what we have now and the worse case. BUT, to go back to my OP and pull in another NatGeo reference, the Elephant in the room that could push the true power conferences to say a big screw you to the rest of us and go ahead with the bad plan is money, plain and simple. The commissioners, officals, and schools in the major conferences really couldn't care less about anyone outside of their conferences and neither do the powers that be in the "major" bowls (reference to the Orange Bowl officals' comment about NIU). All they care about is money and would be happy if the rest of us played pickup games on Saturday. The only ones that can stop the rising tide should this situation develop is the NCAA (that just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy) but so far they've kept their comments out of the public discourse.

I personally don't think it will be that drastic either but the mear fact that it is being discussed by people in power and not just speculation from a few reporters is enough to make quite a few people nervous, to say the least.

[AppinVA]

I understand and share your concern. Still, once a program like Virginia, Texas Tech, Illinois, or another program that's okay with 8-4 seasons is faced with the possibility of 4-8 year in and year out, because William & Mary and Akron are no longer on the schedule, hopefully cooler heads will prevail. Hopefully.

[firemoose]

I understand and share your concern. Still, once a program like Virginia, Texas Tech, Illinois, or another program that's okay with 8-4 seasons is faced with the possibility of 4-8 year in and year out, because William & Mary and Akron are no longer on the schedule, hopefully cooler heads will prevail. Hopefully.

Agree completely. And here's hoping this whole thing sorts itself out soon. The not knowing is hard on all of us.

[canes_mj]

The only ones that can stop the rising tide should this situation develop is the NCAA (that just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy) but so far they've kept their comments out of the public discourse.

Actually there's not really anything the NCAA can do to stop this. They can't stop universities from changing conferences, or conferences from negotiating their own TV deals. They don't run the bowls or the BCS or the new playoffs at the BCS level, nor determine how the money gets split. So for once, I can't blame them lol.

[canes_mj]

The President of FSU likes being in the ACC. He has gone on record as saying such. While Maryland may stand to make $20 million in 2017, they stand to lose $50 million in 2014 through exit fees. The Big 12 is not in control of there destiny, yet. The ACC holds the fate of those schools in their hand. If Swoffords stands pat on th exit fee, then the ACC will ward off anymore defections. If he caves in, then all bets are off.

Swofford won't cave. No way. Everyone is right about that. But the ACC may have a hard time as this goes to court collecting the exit fees. I've heard a lot of lawyers discussing how it may be hard to enforce that. Found an interesting article about the potential arguments both sides may likely make:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ter ... -maryland/

Also FSU was the only other school besides Maryland to vote against increasing the exit fees, so how much they like being in the ACC is debatable.

[AppSt94]

The President of FSU likes being in the ACC. He has gone on record as saying such. While Maryland may stand to make $20 million in 2017, they stand to lose $50 million in 2014 through exit fees. The Big 12 is not in control of there destiny, yet. The ACC holds the fate of those schools in their hand. If Swoffords stands pat on th exit fee, then the ACC will ward off anymore defections. If he caves in, then all bets are off.

Swofford won't cave. No way. Everyone is right about that. But the ACC may have a hard time as this goes to court collecting the exit fees. I've heard a lot of lawyers discussing how it may be hard to enforce that. Found an interesting article about the potential arguments both sides may likely make:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ter ... -maryland/

Also FSU was the only other school besides Maryland to vote against increasing the exit fees, so how much they like being in the ACC is debatable.

Liking your affiliation with fellow conference members and voting against exorbitant exit fees are two different i things.

[firemoose]

The only ones that can stop the rising tide should this situation develop is the NCAA (that just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy) but so far they've kept their comments out of the public discourse.

Actually there's not really anything the NCAA can do to stop this. They can't stop universities from changing conferences, or conferences from negotiating their own TV deals. They don't run the bowls or the BCS or the new playoffs at the BCS level, nor determine how the money gets split. So for once, I can't blame them lol.

You are correct that they have no control over what you mentioned. What I was referring to was the forming of new divisions that would allow the power conferences to get what they want in total and force others into making some tough choices. Most of us know why the original split was made in 1978 and, while some cost saving parts worked, a lot of the revenue reasons never developed. In fact it was pretty much the exact opposite. The NCAA isn't exactly know for making good decisions so that was the warm and fuzzy part I was talking about.

[appsfan]

In a related note, it was announced today that SDSU is not moving to the BE, but staying in the MWC. While this was expected, it forces the BE to focus on additions east of the Rockies...