How many games can teams lose?

[AtlAppMan]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.

Let me be very blunt, right now I would bet you if we run the table we WILL make CFP. That is not out of our hands. If we lose to anybody on our schedule it starts slipping out of our hands.

1. You win your conference
2. You beat another likely top G5 (maybe top in CUSA) team
3. Have a Marquis top 25 win
4. We will be ranked fairly high at end of season

The more we lose the further away it slips.

What if Boise St and or Memphis both go undefeated as well? As I said, here and in earlier threads, there is a level of subjectivity to who is higher ranked. We can sit here and hypothesize until the end of November, but there just aren’t any guarantees. Control what you can control and see if it shakes out.

Then both/all would likely make the playoffs.

It's a different world than the 4-team field. 13-0 with a win at Clemson is not getting left out of the top 12 IMO.

Here is another angle.
What if Clemson beats Georgia.
Georgia wins out. 12-1
We beat Clemson.
Clemson wins out. 12-1
App wins out. 13-0

Do we get into CFP?
Poses a very interesting possible scenario.

[EastHallApp]

Guys, what if we go 13-0 and every other team in the nation somehow goes 0-13? Do you think we'd sneak in then, or would they put in Boise and 11 SEC teams because bias?

[spacemonkey]

If we go 12-1 with a Sunbelt championship we will get the g5 spot.

[spacemonkey]

In the new world, MOST teams start the playoffs in week 0/1. Georgia Tech started their playoff Saturday, FLorida State starts their playoffs next Saturday. A few SEC and BIG 10 teams don't start theirs until the playoffs start but 80% of the FBS start their playoffs week 1.

[AppSt94]

Let me be very blunt, right now I would bet you if we run the table we WILL make CFP. That is not out of our hands. If we lose to anybody on our schedule it starts slipping out of our hands.

1. You win your conference
2. You beat another likely top G5 (maybe top in CUSA) team
3. Have a Marquis top 25 win
4. We will be ranked fairly high at end of season

The more we lose the further away it slips.

What if Boise St and or Memphis both go undefeated as well? As I said, here and in earlier threads, there is a level of subjectivity to who is higher ranked. We can sit here and hypothesize until the end of November, but there just aren’t any guarantees. Control what you can control and see if it shakes out.

Then both/all would likely make the playoffs.

It's a different world than the 4-team field. 13-0 with a win at Clemson is not getting left out of the top 12 IMO.

They will take Vanderbilt before they take more than 1 G5.

I understand the skepticism, but it's kind of baseless at this point. We don't know what they'd do in that scenario.

Besides, we're debating hypotheticals that are highly unlikely to actually occur.

To be honest, this whole thread is pointless. None of these hypotheticals will ever come true. There has been zero thought given to multiple G5 teams getting in because that would mean that two G5s are in the Top 12. The committee will not let that happen.

[Black Saturday]

I think the most likely scenario for G5, especially if app beats Liberty, is a 2 loss champion gets in.

Why? When we’re gonna be undefeated.

I hope so! I will be at Clemson rooting them on. Going undefeated in conference is such a tall task, though this year sets up better than any in quite a while. Please don’t let the stink be the one to spoil the run.

Drink is at Missouri

[Black Saturday]

What if Boise St and or Memphis both go undefeated as well? As I said, here and in earlier threads, there is a level of subjectivity to who is higher ranked. We can sit here and hypothesize until the end of November, but there just aren’t any guarantees. Control what you can control and see if it shakes out.

Then both/all would likely make the playoffs.

It's a different world than the 4-team field. 13-0 with a win at Clemson is not getting left out of the top 12 IMO.

They will take Vanderbilt before they take more than 1 G5.

I understand the skepticism, but it's kind of baseless at this point. We don't know what they'd do in that scenario.

Besides, we're debating hypotheticals that are highly unlikely to actually occur.

To be honest, this whole thread is pointless. None of these hypotheticals will ever come true. There has been zero thought given to multiple G5 teams getting in because that would mean that two G5s are in the Top 12. The committee will not let that happen.

Exactly! We are not a member of the Country Club

[AppSt94]

Then both/all would likely make the playoffs.

It's a different world than the 4-team field. 13-0 with a win at Clemson is not getting left out of the top 12 IMO.

They will take Vanderbilt before they take more than 1 G5.

I understand the skepticism, but it's kind of baseless at this point. We don't know what they'd do in that scenario.

Besides, we're debating hypotheticals that are highly unlikely to actually occur.

To be honest, this whole thread is pointless. None of these hypotheticals will ever come true. There has been zero thought given to multiple G5 teams getting in because that would mean that two G5s are in the Top 12. The committee will not let that happen.

Exactly! We are not a member of the Country Club

A good bit of the schools in the Country Club aren’t even members.

[EastHallApp]

What if Boise St and or Memphis both go undefeated as well? As I said, here and in earlier threads, there is a level of subjectivity to who is higher ranked. We can sit here and hypothesize until the end of November, but there just aren’t any guarantees. Control what you can control and see if it shakes out.

Then both/all would likely make the playoffs.

It's a different world than the 4-team field. 13-0 with a win at Clemson is not getting left out of the top 12 IMO.

They will take Vanderbilt before they take more than 1 G5.

I understand the skepticism, but it's kind of baseless at this point. We don't know what they'd do in that scenario.

Besides, we're debating hypotheticals that are highly unlikely to actually occur.

To be honest, this whole thread is pointless. None of these hypotheticals will ever come true. There has been zero thought given to multiple G5 teams getting in because that would mean that two G5s are in the Top 12. The committee will not let that happen.

Again - maybe you're right, but why do you assume that? Has the CFP committee ever left out a deserving G5 before? I guess you could argue that 2020 Coastal could have gotten a NY6 spot, maybe.

I can't really blame anyone for being cynical about college football, because the sport deserves it. But I don't think anyone can authoritatively state what they will or won't do with a 12-team playoff when this is the first year it's ever existed.

[AppSt94]

Then both/all would likely make the playoffs.

It's a different world than the 4-team field. 13-0 with a win at Clemson is not getting left out of the top 12 IMO.

They will take Vanderbilt before they take more than 1 G5.

I understand the skepticism, but it's kind of baseless at this point. We don't know what they'd do in that scenario.

Besides, we're debating hypotheticals that are highly unlikely to actually occur.

To be honest, this whole thread is pointless. None of these hypotheticals will ever come true. There has been zero thought given to multiple G5 teams getting in because that would mean that two G5s are in the Top 12. The committee will not let that happen.

Again - maybe you're right, but why do you assume that? Has the CFP committee ever left out a deserving G5 before? I guess you could argue that 2020 Coastal could have gotten a NY6 spot, maybe.

I can't really blame anyone for being cynical about college football, because the sport deserves it. But I don't think anyone can authoritatively state what they will or won't do with a 12-team playoff when this is the first year it's ever existed.

My comments are absolutely assumptions but what has happened over the years that makes me think otherwise? The G5 favorites all play a “quality” P5 opponent except Liberty.

Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, App, Miami (OH) and Texas St. all play highly ranked and respected P5 opponents. A win over those teams will look good but I can see the committee and most certainly the TV and media pundits devaluing the losing P5 team more so than giving the G5 the credibility. I think that it was 2016. WMU was undefeated and won two games against P5 teams. The committee was hoping for a Navy win against Army so they could justify moving them ahead of the undefeated Broncos. Look at what they did to FSU last year. I just haven’t seen anything from the media or committee that gives me confidence that a G5 team won’t get anything better than a 12 seed, let alone multiple teams getting in.

[Saint3333]

Good news is the answer to this question will be fairly clear on 9/7 and 95% clear by 9/28.

[EastHallApp]

They will take Vanderbilt before they take more than 1 G5.

I understand the skepticism, but it's kind of baseless at this point. We don't know what they'd do in that scenario.

Besides, we're debating hypotheticals that are highly unlikely to actually occur.

To be honest, this whole thread is pointless. None of these hypotheticals will ever come true. There has been zero thought given to multiple G5 teams getting in because that would mean that two G5s are in the Top 12. The committee will not let that happen.

Again - maybe you're right, but why do you assume that? Has the CFP committee ever left out a deserving G5 before? I guess you could argue that 2020 Coastal could have gotten a NY6 spot, maybe.

I can't really blame anyone for being cynical about college football, because the sport deserves it. But I don't think anyone can authoritatively state what they will or won't do with a 12-team playoff when this is the first year it's ever existed.

My comments are absolutely assumptions but what has happened over the years that makes me think otherwise? The G5 favorites all play a “quality” P5 opponent except Liberty.

Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, App, Miami (OH) and Texas St. all play highly ranked and respected P5 opponents. A win over those teams will look good but I can see the committee and most certainly the TV and media pundits devaluing the losing P5 team more so than giving the G5 the credibility. I think that it was 2016. WMU was undefeated and won two games against P5 teams. The committee was hoping for a Navy win against Army so they could justify moving them ahead of the undefeated Broncos. Look at what they did to FSU last year. I just haven’t seen anything from the media or committee that gives me confidence that a G5 team won’t get anything better than a 12 seed, let alone multiple teams getting in.

The WMU-Navy thing is partially supposition (the committee would have waited on Army-Navy if Navy had won the AAC, but it wasn't certain that they'd have jumped Navy over WMU), let alone that they "were hoping" to do so. Any anyway, those are both G5 teams.

Florida State is not only not a G5, they're a 3x national champion and one of the biggest brands in college football. Don't see the relevance of that example. Reality of last year was that head-to-head results put the committee in an impossible spot where at least one team was going to be left out despite having a very strong argument to be in.

I would say thus far the history of the CFP committee is that when it's close, they usually give the benefit of the doubt to the bigger brand name. But they've never made a truly indefensible inclusion or omission.

[EastHallApp]

Also: The most likely outcome is in fact that the CFP will include only one G5 team and that that team will be seeded #12. Not because the committee "won't let" them, but because in most years, that is what the results warrant.

[AppSt94]

I understand the skepticism, but it's kind of baseless at this point. We don't know what they'd do in that scenario.

Besides, we're debating hypotheticals that are highly unlikely to actually occur.

To be honest, this whole thread is pointless. None of these hypotheticals will ever come true. There has been zero thought given to multiple G5 teams getting in because that would mean that two G5s are in the Top 12. The committee will not let that happen.

Again - maybe you're right, but why do you assume that? Has the CFP committee ever left out a deserving G5 before? I guess you could argue that 2020 Coastal could have gotten a NY6 spot, maybe.

I can't really blame anyone for being cynical about college football, because the sport deserves it. But I don't think anyone can authoritatively state what they will or won't do with a 12-team playoff when this is the first year it's ever existed.

My comments are absolutely assumptions but what has happened over the years that makes me think otherwise? The G5 favorites all play a “quality” P5 opponent except Liberty.

Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, App, Miami (OH) and Texas St. all play highly ranked and respected P5 opponents. A win over those teams will look good but I can see the committee and most certainly the TV and media pundits devaluing the losing P5 team more so than giving the G5 the credibility. I think that it was 2016. WMU was undefeated and won two games against P5 teams. The committee was hoping for a Navy win against Army so they could justify moving them ahead of the undefeated Broncos. Look at what they did to FSU last year. I just haven’t seen anything from the media or committee that gives me confidence that a G5 team won’t get anything better than a 12 seed, let alone multiple teams getting in.

The WMU-Navy thing is partially supposition (the committee would have waited on Army-Navy if Navy had won the AAC, but it wasn't certain that they'd have jumped Navy over WMU), let alone that they "were hoping" to do so. Any anyway, those are both G5 teams.

Florida State is not only not a G5, they're a 3x national champion and one of the biggest brands in college football. Don't see the relevance of that example. Reality of last year was that head-to-head results put the committee in an impossible spot where at least one team was going to be left out despite having a very strong argument to be in.

I would say thus far the history of the CFP committee is that when it's close, they usually give the benefit of the doubt to the bigger brand name. But they've never made a truly indefensible inclusion or omission.

WMU was 13-0 and Navy was 9-3. The Army game was irrelevant, or should have been. Navy’s loss just made it easy.

[EastHallApp]

To be honest, this whole thread is pointless. None of these hypotheticals will ever come true. There has been zero thought given to multiple G5 teams getting in because that would mean that two G5s are in the Top 12. The committee will not let that happen.

Again - maybe you're right, but why do you assume that? Has the CFP committee ever left out a deserving G5 before? I guess you could argue that 2020 Coastal could have gotten a NY6 spot, maybe.

I can't really blame anyone for being cynical about college football, because the sport deserves it. But I don't think anyone can authoritatively state what they will or won't do with a 12-team playoff when this is the first year it's ever existed.

My comments are absolutely assumptions but what has happened over the years that makes me think otherwise? The G5 favorites all play a “quality” P5 opponent except Liberty.

Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, App, Miami (OH) and Texas St. all play highly ranked and respected P5 opponents. A win over those teams will look good but I can see the committee and most certainly the TV and media pundits devaluing the losing P5 team more so than giving the G5 the credibility. I think that it was 2016. WMU was undefeated and won two games against P5 teams. The committee was hoping for a Navy win against Army so they could justify moving them ahead of the undefeated Broncos. Look at what they did to FSU last year. I just haven’t seen anything from the media or committee that gives me confidence that a G5 team won’t get anything better than a 12 seed, let alone multiple teams getting in.

The WMU-Navy thing is partially supposition (the committee would have waited on Army-Navy if Navy had won the AAC, but it wasn't certain that they'd have jumped Navy over WMU), let alone that they "were hoping" to do so. Any anyway, those are both G5 teams.

Florida State is not only not a G5, they're a 3x national champion and one of the biggest brands in college football. Don't see the relevance of that example. Reality of last year was that head-to-head results put the committee in an impossible spot where at least one team was going to be left out despite having a very strong argument to be in.

I would say thus far the history of the CFP committee is that when it's close, they usually give the benefit of the doubt to the bigger brand name. But they've never made a truly indefensible inclusion or omission.

WMU was 13-0 and Navy was 9-3. The Army game was irrelevant, or should have been. Navy’s loss just made it easy.

Just to clarify: It WAS irrelevant by the time Navy was 9-3. They had to win the AAC title to make the Army game a factor, and they didn't. The issue would have been if you'd had 13-0 WMU from the worst FBS conference vs. 11-2 Navy from the best G5 conference (remember this was the year Houston beat two top 10 P5s but went just 5-3 in the AAC).

I agree with you that WMU should have gotten the bid regardless. But I can see how it was close enough that they would have wanted to let the season play out.

If you disagree and consider that scenario to be an injustice, that's fine, but let's also remember that it didn't actually happen.

[AppSt94]

Again - maybe you're right, but why do you assume that? Has the CFP committee ever left out a deserving G5 before? I guess you could argue that 2020 Coastal could have gotten a NY6 spot, maybe.

I can't really blame anyone for being cynical about college football, because the sport deserves it. But I don't think anyone can authoritatively state what they will or won't do with a 12-team playoff when this is the first year it's ever existed.

My comments are absolutely assumptions but what has happened over the years that makes me think otherwise? The G5 favorites all play a “quality” P5 opponent except Liberty.

Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, App, Miami (OH) and Texas St. all play highly ranked and respected P5 opponents. A win over those teams will look good but I can see the committee and most certainly the TV and media pundits devaluing the losing P5 team more so than giving the G5 the credibility. I think that it was 2016. WMU was undefeated and won two games against P5 teams. The committee was hoping for a Navy win against Army so they could justify moving them ahead of the undefeated Broncos. Look at what they did to FSU last year. I just haven’t seen anything from the media or committee that gives me confidence that a G5 team won’t get anything better than a 12 seed, let alone multiple teams getting in.

The WMU-Navy thing is partially supposition (the committee would have waited on Army-Navy if Navy had won the AAC, but it wasn't certain that they'd have jumped Navy over WMU), let alone that they "were hoping" to do so. Any anyway, those are both G5 teams.

Florida State is not only not a G5, they're a 3x national champion and one of the biggest brands in college football. Don't see the relevance of that example. Reality of last year was that head-to-head results put the committee in an impossible spot where at least one team was going to be left out despite having a very strong argument to be in.

I would say thus far the history of the CFP committee is that when it's close, they usually give the benefit of the doubt to the bigger brand name. But they've never made a truly indefensible inclusion or omission.

WMU was 13-0 and Navy was 9-3. The Army game was irrelevant, or should have been. Navy’s loss just made it easy.

Just to clarify: It WAS irrelevant by the time Navy was 9-3. They had to win the AAC title to make the Army game a factor, and they didn't. The issue would have been if you'd had 13-0 WMU from the worst FBS conference vs. 11-2 Navy from the best G5 conference (remember this was the year Houston beat two top 10 P5s but went just 5-3 in the AAC).

I agree with you that WMU should have gotten the bid regardless. But I can see how it was close enough that they would have wanted to let the season play out.

If you disagree and consider that scenario to be an injustice, that's fine, but let's also remember that it didn't actually happen.

No need to disagree. It just goes to show that you can do everything that is asked and it still come down to a subjective opinion. Is App a bigger brand than a Boise or Memphis? Maybe equal, but I don’t think that it is necessarily better or good enough to sway an opinion. We shall see how it plays out. I do feel like App can put a product on the field that warrants the invite.

[AppStFan1]

My comments are absolutely assumptions but what has happened over the years that makes me think otherwise? The G5 favorites all play a “quality” P5 opponent except Liberty.

Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, App, Miami (OH) and Texas St. all play highly ranked and respected P5 opponents. A win over those teams will look good but I can see the committee and most certainly the TV and media pundits devaluing the losing P5 team more so than giving the G5 the credibility. I think that it was 2016. WMU was undefeated and won two games against P5 teams. The committee was hoping for a Navy win against Army so they could justify moving them ahead of the undefeated Broncos. Look at what they did to FSU last year. I just haven’t seen anything from the media or committee that gives me confidence that a G5 team won’t get anything better than a 12 seed, let alone multiple teams getting in.

The WMU-Navy thing is partially supposition (the committee would have waited on Army-Navy if Navy had won the AAC, but it wasn't certain that they'd have jumped Navy over WMU), let alone that they "were hoping" to do so. Any anyway, those are both G5 teams.

Florida State is not only not a G5, they're a 3x national champion and one of the biggest brands in college football. Don't see the relevance of that example. Reality of last year was that head-to-head results put the committee in an impossible spot where at least one team was going to be left out despite having a very strong argument to be in.

I would say thus far the history of the CFP committee is that when it's close, they usually give the benefit of the doubt to the bigger brand name. But they've never made a truly indefensible inclusion or omission.

WMU was 13-0 and Navy was 9-3. The Army game was irrelevant, or should have been. Navy’s loss just made it easy.

Just to clarify: It WAS irrelevant by the time Navy was 9-3. They had to win the AAC title to make the Army game a factor, and they didn't. The issue would have been if you'd had 13-0 WMU from the worst FBS conference vs. 11-2 Navy from the best G5 conference (remember this was the year Houston beat two top 10 P5s but went just 5-3 in the AAC).

I agree with you that WMU should have gotten the bid regardless. But I can see how it was close enough that they would have wanted to let the season play out.

If you disagree and consider that scenario to be an injustice, that's fine, but let's also remember that it didn't actually happen.

No need to disagree. It just goes to show that you can do everything that is asked and it still come down to a subjective opinion. Is App a bigger brand than a Boise or Memphis? Maybe equal, but I don’t think that it is necessarily better or good enough to sway an opinion. We shall see how it plays out. I do feel like App can put a product on the field that warrants the invite.

The opinion comment is why I don't ever say anything is guaranteed by going 13-0 along with the fact that another team could go 13-0. Best to just let it play out and see if the debate is even potentially relevant come early November.

I don't think we are a bigger brand than Boise or Memphis but feel like we are close. I agree we can put a playoff caliber product on the field this year. Let's just hope we stay healthy.

[Yosefus]

Task #1. Beat ETSU!
ONE WEEK AT A TIME FOR ME

[spacemonkey]

As far as the bigger brand, I think it is a huge advantage that we are talking about the bigger brand between App, Memphis, Boise. This means there are a lot of brands behind us and will need to have a better resume than App instead of an equal resume.

Glass half (95%full) vs glass half empty.

[EastHallApp]

Hopefully we have a good enough season to find out.