I am afraid we are on the way to the Power 5s breaking from the NCAA - possibly not this season but saddle up ---
https://www.espn.com/college-football/

Big 12 folds or absorbed into other conferences? Does the AAC grow to a true P5? Are we left out in the cold again?

BeauFoster wrote: ↑

Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:21 pm

Big 12 folds or absorbed into other conferences? Does the AAC grow to a true P5? Are we left out in the cold again?

Were we ever let in from the cold? Unless we convince ESPN to give Sun Belt tons of money/better bowls or we find a new home with similar levels of tie-ins and opportunity to the AAC, I'm pessimistic that we get in on the good side of any upcoming deals.

VNova wrote: ↑

Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:30 pm

BeauFoster wrote: ↑

Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:21 pm

Big 12 folds or absorbed into other conferences? Does the AAC grow to a true P5? Are we left out in the cold again?

Were we ever let in from the cold? Unless we convince ESPN to give Sun Belt tons of money/better bowls or we find a new home with similar levels of tie-ins and opportunity to the AAC, I'm pessimistic that we get in on the good side of any upcoming deals.

The original split is what I’m referring to, although we really kinda did that to ourselves.

My guess is that if this does happen, most of the 8 remaining teams aren't attractive enough to find a landing spot in another P5 league. So they do what the Big East/AAC did before then and raid the top teams on the outside. No clue if the Big 12 without it's 2 bluebloods retains power status, but if it doesn't it will at least become the new best of the rest conference since the AAC will likely lose 2 to 4 teams from the top.

Is this possibly a threat or reaction to the "hook 'em horns" fiasco that their commish started?

BeauFoster wrote: ↑

Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:21 pm

Big 12 folds or absorbed into other conferences? Does the AAC grow to a true P5? Are we left out in the cold again?

I would see the P5 becoming the P4. Four conferences, 16 teams each makes a very symmetrical, very bracket friendly, equal line-up and would precede a P4 split.

WASU 93 wrote: ↑

Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:33 pm

BeauFoster wrote: ↑

Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:21 pm

Big 12 folds or absorbed into other conferences? Does the AAC grow to a true P5? Are we left out in the cold again?

I would see the P5 becoming the P4. Four conferences, 16 teams each makes a very symmetrical, very bracket friendly, equal line-up and would precede a P4 split.

I've never fully believed in the 4 or 5 x 16 theories. Currently there are 64 P5 teams plus ND. 5 x 16 doesn't work because that means adding 16 G5 teams to the upper class. Not likely. 4 x 16 doesn't work either. 4 x 16 is 64 teams, rearranging them into 4 clunky conferences just for symmetry would depend on somewhat evenly spread teams. That's not the case. The other conferences don't have to take the other B12 leftovers and there's a good chance they won't. This is the chance to drop some deadweights from the club. The PAC 12 won't force it's way to 16 when the only options are MW teams or left behind Texas/great plains teams.

My knee jerk thoughts, with absolutely no evidence to back them up was... Would BYU seek to join the Big12? Maybe the Big12 takes a shot at Houston and SMU to replace OU and Texas. Its obviously not ideal for them but that would keep their somewhat regional conference geographically close. I think they probably have the money and capacity to fill that massive void as well as anyone in the G5. It would also open up two spots in the AAC.

I have not thought much deeper on it and haven't seen any traction that way.

If this happens, the ripple effects of this will be crazy. Does Texas get to keep the Longhorn Network? Would it force ND to potentially consider joining the ACC as a full member?

Who knows?

I doubt the Big 12 folds. I think most likely they will raid the AAC. Only way they fold is if they DON'T add teams back to replace...they'll have to act fairly quickly and decisively or else they'll see any of their remaining teams that have any value look to leave (Ok St, Kansas (bball), TCU? Baylor). So for survival's sake, they're going to have to poach from somewhere.

Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati, and SMU could all be attractive candidates for the Big 12....good markets and they fit pretty well geographically. And while it's sure to be the worst of the P5's after Texas and OU leave (really they shouldn't be P5 anymore), their tv deal is likely to still be a better options for schools than the AAC. It's currently 2.6 billion vs AAC's 1 billion. It'll go down, but I doubt it'll decrease to the point where it's less in value than the AAC's or any other G5's deal. So, I think we'll see the familiar pattern of "moving on up" that trickles through the rest of the G5

If Texas and OU go the $EC, I could see the ACC taking West Virginia and trying to entice Notre Dame to join as a full member. That would create two 16 team mega-conferences.

Maybe the Pac12 takes Texas Tech and Oklahoma St., but I don't really see the benefit to them doing that.

Kansas fits the Big 10's mold, but could they go anywhere without Kansas St.?

There's going to be a lot of political maneuvering and probably a bunch of lawsuits before this is all sorted out.

BeauFoster wrote: ↑

Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:21 pm

Big 12 folds or absorbed into other conferences? Does the AAC grow to a true P5? Are we left out in the cold again?

Another possibility to consider. Does the Big12 swallow the AAC?

If the AAC is raided and loses 2-3 of their strongest programs, is that conference a desirable landing spot for a Sun Belt program anymore? Sure they have a better TV deal now, but how does that deal look in a couple of years?

I’d say the AAC leadership appears to be head and shoulders above that of the Belt currently.

Texas is not very good...going to SEC would project them to be worse..lol

I also wonder if there is any cross over between the Big 12 and ACC where West Virginia comes over to the ACC and maybe a couple ACC teams leave for the Big 12?

Interesting topic - IMO it won't happen

However if it does - I think the B12 leftovers are strong enough to raid the best of the AAC and Boise St. (They'll be seen as a better version of the AAC - P5 lite) I see them entering Florida with USF and UCF then grabbing Cincinnati and Boise (or Memphis) to get to 12. I don't see them separating into divisions. I think BYU would rather remain independent. I see the B12 Texas schools preferring to keep their B12 advantage over adding Houston or SMU.

I think the AAC will follow its old model of going after markets to replace what it lost and fall flat just like CUSA, as there are no more marquee G5 level teams that command an audience in large markets. I can see them backfilling with UAB and UTSA then picking 1-2 of Buffalo, Charlotte, ODU or Ga State to get to 10 total teams. As above no more divisions.

I don't know that CUSA would try to replace anyone - they would be better off with fewer members.

The MAC would need to evaluate their needs and may choose not to replace Buffalo (if selected).

If Ga State leaves, the SBC will need to add 1, as its my understanding that you need to have at least 10 to hold a conference championship game. The SBC could possibly steal Marshall or JMU may finally realize there's no other opportunities to move up.

It is well known DG wants to move us to AAC. This next round may give him the opening.

WVU to the ACC should have happened earlier and I hope it actually does sometime soon - per BYU, hasn't there been a concern with the larger conferences because they won't participate on Sundays ---

Tbatchelor1977 wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:45 am

Texas is not very good...going to SEC would project them to be worse..lol

That is what a lot of people thought about A&M and Missouri when they made the jump. What helps is getting the big athletic defensive linemen out of the southeast where they seem to grow on trees and they all want to play in the SEC.

I really think this Ok/Tx to SEC has a lot of legs. If it happens, no way the other Power conferences do not react. I would be surprised if the G5 is raided (maybe a team or two) simply because history has showed us what happens to conferences that try to replace Power teams with Non Power teams, the Big East was destroyed as a football entity. I see the other Power conferences also trying to get to 16 which means 2 teams for the Big 10 and ACC and 4 for the Pac 12. I could easily see Kansas (bball) and Iowa State going to the Big 10. I could see WVa going to ACC but not sure who else they add as I don't envision Notre Dame joining full time. The Pac 12 will be left with the leftovers unless it moves fast to get more desirable teams. A big question is what happens to playoff expansion now that there is a chance of 4 super conferences? Could be that the powers that be essentially make it those 4 conference champs play each for the National Title because that would essentially be an 8 team playoff if you consider the conference title games as the first round. If something like that happened, it would force Notre Dame to join a conference which would most likely be the ACC, but Big 10 would make a push I am sure. Honestly, there are so many ways this can go. I just hope that we have people thinking about all the scenarios and trying to find other like minded schools that can get on the same page when the effects of this inevitably get to us.