G5 Over the Last 8 Years

WASU 93 · Unread post by **WASU 93** » Fri Oct 13, 2023 11:50 am

I posted this in another thread, but I'm going to put it out in front of all the eyeballs on The Cabin:
1. I would say that we have been the Top G5 program and set the standard over the last 8 seasons. (some schools have had bigger Flash seasons with an NY6 game or rankings)
2. If we are trending towards back to back mediocre seasons, we are right in line (and possibly trending better) than the other Top 10 programs
3. Four of these programs in the Top 10 are becoming P5 programs and I would venture that others in the Top 10 (plus, a ton of schools not in the Top 10) have larger budgets than App. State

For arguments sake:
0-1 win (awful)
2 to 4 wins-- a bad year
5-7 wins-mediocre
8-10 wins-good
11+- excellent

For Perspective:
Number of Wins Per Year Since 2015

App St. 11 10 9 11 13 9 10 6- 79 total. (one mediocre, 3 excellent)
Boise State 9 10 11 10 12 5 7 10- 74 total (two mediocre, 2 excellent)
San Diego St. 11 11 10 7 10 4 12 7- 71 total (one bad, two mediocre, 3 excellent)
Louisiana 4 7 6 6 7 11 10 13 6- 70 total (one bad, 5 mediocre, 2 excellent)
Memphis. 9 8 10 8 12 8 6 7- 68 total (two mediocre, one excellent)
Cincinatti 7 4 4 11 11 9 13 9- 68 total (two bad, one mediocre, 3 excellent)
UCF. 0 6 13 12 10 6 9 9- 65 total. (one awful, two mediocre, 2 excellent)
BYU 9 9 4 7 7 11 10 8- 65 total. (one bad, 3 mediocre, one excellent)
Houston 13 9 7 8 4 3 12 8- 64 total. (two bad, one mediocre, 2 excellent)
WKU. 12 11 6 3 9 5 9 9- 64 total (one bad, two mediocre, 2 excellent)
Toledo. 10 9 11 7 6 4 7 9- 63 total. (one bad, three mediocre, one excellent)

NOTES:
Only three programs have had 5 10+-Win Seasons in that 8-year span--App/Boise/SD St.
Programs with 12 or 13 win seasons (mediocrity happens within three years before or after)
App--won 6 games three years later
Boise-won 5 games the next year
SD State-won 4 games the year before and 7 the year after
Louisiana-won 6 games the next year
Memphis-won 6 games two year later, then 7 the next
Cincy-TBD, but did drop to 9 wins the next year
UCF-won 6 games the year before their 13/12 years and 6 games two years after
Houston had 4 win and 3 win seasons sandwiched between their 13 and 12 year season (the biggest roller coaster in the Top 10)
WKU-won six games and then three games after their 12 win/11 win seasons and had another 5-win season two years later

Troy had three straight 5-win seasons prior to their 12-win season last year.
Fresno State won 3 games and one game prior to their 10/12 win seasons, then had a 4-win season and a 3-win season

Others:
Troy. 4 10 11 10 5 5 5 12 - 62 total. (4 bad, two excellent)
Marshall 10 3 8 9 8 7 7 9- 61 total. (one bad, two mediocre)
Fresno State 3 1 10 12 4 3 10 10- 53 total (one awful, three bad, one excellent)
MTSU 7 8 7 8 4 3 7 8- 52 total. (two bad, 3 mediocre)
Buffalo 5 2 6 10 8 6 4 7-48 total (two bad, 4 mediocre)
Wyoming 2 8 8 6 8 2 7 7- 48 total (two bad, 3 mediocre)
GaSo. 9 5 2 10 7 8 6 4 7-58 total. (two bad, 4 mediocre)
SMU. 2 5 7 5 10 7 8 7-51 total (one bad,5 mediocre) but $100M+ in donations will get you a p5 bid!
ECU. 5 3 3 3 4 3 7 8-36 total (5 bad, two mediocre)
Southern Miss 9 7 8 6 7 3 3 7-50 total. (two bad, 4 mediocre)

and just because
North Carolina 11 8 3 2 7 8 6 9-54 total
South Carolina 3 6 9 7 4 2 7 8-46 total
Wake Forest 3 7 8 7 8 3 11 8-55 total
Duke 8 4 7 8 5 1 3 9-45 total
NC State 7 7 9 9 4 8 9 8--61 total

t4pizza · Unread post by **t4pizza** » Fri Oct 13, 2023 2:43 pm

Good work putting this together, very interesting to look at the actual numbers. Curious how many of those falls from excellent seasons were preceded by a coaching change, my guess is most if not all. It is clear that we have been the preeminent G5 program despite not making a NY6 bowl. It is also clearly that our worst season still isn't too bad in comparison (not that I want a repeat of it).

WASU 93 · Unread post by **WASU 93** » Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:11 pm

t4pizza wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 13, 2023 2:43 pm
Good work putting this together, very interesting to look at the actual numbers. Curious how many of those falls from excellent seasons were preceded by a coaching change, my guess is most if not all. It is clear that we have been the preeminent G5 program despite not making a NY6 bowl. It is also clearly that our worst season still isn't too bad in comparison (not that I want a repeat of it).

I'd agree that many of the falls were probably affected by a coaching change. You also had situations where players like D'Andre King left Houston mid-season (as soon as their chances at a great season were gone). There were probably situations with coordinators moving as well.

Nobody wants mediocre seasons. But, what we've done in the last 8 years really hasn't been matched by anyone (or very few). A catch against Carolina and a made FG against GaSo and we wouldn't even have that.

AppInDC · Unread post by **AppInDC** » Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:34 pm

WASU 93 wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 13, 2023 11:50 am
I posted this in another thread, but I'm going to put it out in front of all the eyeballs on The Cabin:
1. I would say that we have been the Top G5 program and set the standard over the last 8 seasons. (some schools have had bigger Flash seasons with an NY6 game or rankings)
2. If we are trending towards back to back mediocre seasons, we are right in line (and possibly trending better) than the other Top 10 programs
3. Four of these programs in the Top 10 are becoming P5 programs and I would venture that others in the Top 10 (plus, a ton of schools not in the Top 10) have larger budgets than App. State

For arguments sake:
0-1 win (awful)
2 to 4 wins-- a bad year
5-7 wins-mediocre
8-10 wins-good
11+- excellent

For Perspective:
Number of Wins Per Year Since 2015

App St. 11 10 9 11 13 9 10 6- 79 total. (one mediocre, 3 excellent)
Boise State 9 10 11 10 12 5 7 10- 74 total (two mediocre, 2 excellent)
San Diego St. 11 11 10 7 10 4 12 7- 71 total (one bad, two mediocre, 3 excellent)
Louisiana 4 7 6 6 7 11 10 13 6- 70 total (one bad, 5 mediocre, 2 excellent)
Memphis. 9 8 10 8 12 8 6 7- 68 total (two mediocre, one excellent)
Cincinatti 7 4 4 11 11 9 13 9- 68 total (two bad, one mediocre, 3 excellent)
UCF. 0 6 13 12 10 6 9 9- 65 total. (one awful, two mediocre, 2 excellent)
BYU 9 9 4 7 7 11 10 8- 65 total. (one bad, 3 mediocre, one excellent)
Houston 13 9 7 8 4 3 12 8- 64 total. (two bad, one mediocre, 2 excellent)
WKU. 12 11 6 3 9 5 9 9- 64 total (one bad, two mediocre, 2 excellent)
Toledo. 10 9 11 7 6 4 7 9- 63 total. (one bad, three mediocre, one excellent)

NOTES:
Only three programs have had 5 10+-Win Seasons in that 8-year span--App/Boise/SD St.
Programs with 12 or 13 win seasons (mediocrity happens within three years before or after)
App--won 6 games three years later
Boise-won 5 games the next year
SD State-won 4 games the year before and 7 the year after
Louisiana-won 6 games the next year
Memphis-won 6 games two year later, then 7 the next
Cincy-TBD, but did drop to 9 wins the next year
UCF-won 6 games the year before their 13/12 years and 6 games two years after
Houston had 4 win and 3 win seasons sandwiched between their 13 and 12 year season (the biggest roller coaster in the Top 10)
WKU-won six games and then three games after their 12 win/11 win seasons and had another 5-win season two years later

Troy had three straight 5-win seasons prior to their 12-win season last year.
Fresno State won 3 games and one game prior to their 10/12 win seasons, then had a 4-win season and a 3-win season

Others:
Troy. 4 10 11 10 5 5 5 12 - 62 total. (4 bad, two excellent)
Marshall 10 3 8 9 8 7 7 9- 61 total. (one bad, two mediocre)
Fresno State 3 1 10 12 4 3 10 10- 53 total (one awful, three bad, one excellent)
MTSU 7 8 7 8 4 3 7 8- 52 total. (two bad, 3 mediocre)
Buffalo 5 2 6 10 8 6 4 7-48 total (two bad, 4 mediocre)
Wyoming 2 8 8 6 8 2 7 7- 48 total (two bad, 3 mediocre)
GaSo. 9 5 2 10 7 8 6 4 7-58 total. (two bad, 4 mediocre)
SMU. 2 5 7 5 10 7 8 7-51 total (one bad,5 mediocre) but $100M+ in donations will get you a p5 bid!
ECU. 5 3 3 3 4 3 7 8-36 total (5 bad, two mediocre)
Southern Miss 9 7 8 6 7 3 3 7-50 total. (two bad, 4 mediocre)

and just because
North Carolina 11 8 3 2 7 8 6 9-54 total
South Carolina 3 6 9 7 4 2 7 8-46 total
Wake Forest 3 7 8 7 8 3 11 8-55 total
Duke 8 4 7 8 5 1 3 9-45 total
NC State 7 7 9 9 4 8 9 8--61 total

This is interesting.

To add on to your analysis, I took your original list and looked how each of the teams performed in in ESPN's Strength of Record ranking. This basically looks at what a team's record is vs competition and doesn't take into account margin of victory. I took a straight average of each team's ranking from 2015 to 2022 each year and these were the results from best to worst.

Boise: 41
Cincinnati: 46
App: 47
BYU: 48
Central Florida: 51
Memphis: 53
San Diego State: 55
Houston: 55
Toledo: 70
Louisiana: 71
Western Kentucky: 74

By that metric, App is on average among the three best G5 programs since 2015. And one above them and several peers are no longer G5. Generally in the top 35-40% of all FBS. App's worst season in this metric was last year when they were 88th. Every other program in sample has a worse season except for Boise, Memphis, and San Diego State.

AppInDC · Unread post by **AppInDC** » Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:40 pm

AppInDC wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:34 pm

WASU 93 wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 13, 2023 11:50 am
I posted this in another thread, but I'm going to put it out in front of all the eyeballs on The Cabin:
1. I would say that we have been the Top G5 program and set the standard over the last 8 seasons. (some schools have had bigger Flash seasons with an NY6 game or rankings)
2. If we are trending towards back to back mediocre seasons, we are right in line (and possibly trending better) than the other Top 10 programs
3. Four of these programs in the Top 10 are becoming P5 programs and I would venture that others in the Top 10 (plus, a ton of schools not in the Top 10) have larger budgets than App. State

For arguments sake:
0-1 win (awful)
2 to 4 wins-- a bad year
5-7 wins-mediocre
8-10 wins-good
11+- excellent

For Perspective:
Number of Wins Per Year Since 2015

App St. 11 10 9 11 13 9 10 6- 79 total. (one mediocre, 3 excellent)
Boise State 9 10 11 10 12 5 7 10- 74 total (two mediocre, 2 excellent)
San Diego St. 11 11 10 7 10 4 12 7- 71 total (one bad, two mediocre, 3 excellent)
Louisiana 4 7 6 6 7 11 10 13 6- 70 total (one bad, 5 mediocre, 2 excellent)
Memphis. 9 8 10 8 12 8 6 7- 68 total (two mediocre, one excellent)
Cincinatti 7 4 4 11 11 9 13 9- 68 total (two bad, one mediocre, 3 excellent)
UCF. 0 6 13 12 10 6 9 9- 65 total. (one awful, two mediocre, 2 excellent)
BYU 9 9 4 7 7 11 10 8- 65 total. (one bad, 3 mediocre, one excellent)
Houston 13 9 7 8 4 3 12 8- 64 total. (two bad, one mediocre, 2 excellent)
WKU. 12 11 6 3 9 5 9 9- 64 total (one bad, two mediocre, 2 excellent)
Toledo. 10 9 11 7 6 4 7 9- 63 total. (one bad, three mediocre, one excellent)

NOTES:
Only three programs have had 5 10+-Win Seasons in that 8-year span--App/Boise/SD St.
Programs with 12 or 13 win seasons (mediocrity happens within three years before or after)
App--won 6 games three years later
Boise-won 5 games the next year
SD State-won 4 games the year before and 7 the year after
Louisiana-won 6 games the next year
Memphis-won 6 games two year later, then 7 the next
Cincy-TBD, but did drop to 9 wins the next year
UCF-won 6 games the year before their 13/12 years and 6 games two years after
Houston had 4 win and 3 win seasons sandwiched between their 13 and 12 year season (the biggest roller coaster in the Top 10)
WKU-won six games and then three games after their 12 win/11 win seasons and had another 5-win season two years later

Troy had three straight 5-win seasons prior to their 12-win season last year.
Fresno State won 3 games and one game prior to their 10/12 win seasons, then had a 4-win season and a 3-win season

Others:
Troy. 4 10 11 10 5 5 5 12 - 62 total. (4 bad, two excellent)
Marshall 10 3 8 9 8 7 7 9- 61 total. (one bad, two mediocre)
Fresno State 3 1 10 12 4 3 10 10- 53 total (one awful, three bad, one excellent)
MTSU 7 8 7 8 4 3 7 8- 52 total. (two bad, 3 mediocre)
Buffalo 5 2 6 10 8 6 4 7-48 total (two bad, 4 mediocre)
Wyoming 2 8 8 6 8 2 7 7- 48 total (two bad, 3 mediocre)
GaSo. 9 5 2 10 7 8 6 4 7-58 total. (two bad, 4 mediocre)
SMU. 2 5 7 5 10 7 8 7-51 total (one bad,5 mediocre) but $100M+ in donations will get you a p5 bid!
ECU. 5 3 3 3 4 3 7 8-36 total (5 bad, two mediocre)
Southern Miss 9 7 8 6 7 3 3 7-50 total. (two bad, 4 mediocre)

and just because
North Carolina 11 8 3 2 7 8 6 9-54 total
South Carolina 3 6 9 7 4 2 7 8-46 total
Wake Forest 3 7 8 7 8 3 11 8-55 total
Duke 8 4 7 8 5 1 3 9-45 total
NC State 7 7 9 9 4 8 9 8--61 total
This is interesting.

To add on to your analysis, I took your original list and looked how each of the teams performed in in ESPN's Strength of Record ranking. This basically looks at what a team's record is vs competition and doesn't take into account margin of victory. I took a straight average of each team's ranking from 2015 to 2022 each year and these were the results from best to worst.

Boise: 41
Cincinnati: 46
App: 47
BYU: 48
Central Florida: 51
Memphis: 53
San Diego State: 55
Houston: 55
Toledo: 70
Louisiana: 71
Western Kentucky: 74

By that metric, App is on average among the three best G5 programs since 2015. And one above them and several peers are no longer G5. Generally in the top 35-40% of all FBS. App's worst season in this metric was last year when they were 88th. Every other program in sample has a worse season except for Boise, Memphis, and San Diego State.

I decided to so the same for the ACC schools and this was average rank from 2015-2022.

NC State: 44
Wake Forest: 48
North Carolina: 55
Duke: 68

App has actually performed almost on par with NC State and ahead of Wake, Duke, and UNC since becoming a full FBS member. If not for last year, App's ahead of all of the NC schools.