ESPN Group of 5 Power Rankings

[biggie]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/i ... -app-state


1 Boise
2 Memphis
3 Liberty
4 UTSA
5 JMU
6 App
7 Fresno
8 Troy
9 Tulane
10 WKU


"6. Appalachian State Mountaineers
SP+ rank: 59
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 96
CFP odds, per SP+: 4.2%

Three toughest games: at No. 16 Clemson (Sept. 7), No. 48 Liberty (Sept. 28), at No. 72 Louisiana (Oct. 12)

Most playoff-worthy players: QB Joey Aguilar, WR Kaedin Robinson, DT Santana Hopper, S Jordan Favors, OLB Brendan Harrington, WR Christan Horn

Biggest question mark: A sieve of a run defense. After a frustrating 3-4 start, App State emerged as one of the G5's best teams late in 2023, winning six of seven and improving dramatically on both offense and defense. The Mountaineers return a 3,700-yard passer in Aguilar, plus most of his receiving corps; this offense should be good even with turnover on the line. But despite its late-year improvement, App still finished 109th in rushing success rate allowed. That's not going to cut it against strong rushing teams like Clemson and Liberty. The front six was ridiculously young, and coach Shawn Clark seems to be banking on experience and development to paper over last year's cracks. While he brought in a number of transfer DBs, he's mostly riding with last year's personnel up front. We'll see whether that gamble pays off."


JMU isn't tougher game than ULL with them being ranked 5th on here?

[AppStFan1]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/i ... -app-state


1 Boise
2 Memphis
3 Liberty
4 UTSA
5 JMU
6 App
7 Fresno
8 Troy
9 Tulane
10 WKU


"6. Appalachian State Mountaineers
SP+ rank: 59
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 96
CFP odds, per SP+: 4.2%

Three toughest games: at No. 16 Clemson (Sept. 7), No. 48 Liberty (Sept. 28), at No. 72 Louisiana (Oct. 12)

Most playoff-worthy players: QB Joey Aguilar, WR Kaedin Robinson, DT Santana Hopper, S Jordan Favors, OLB Brendan Harrington, WR Christan Horn

Biggest question mark: A sieve of a run defense. After a frustrating 3-4 start, App State emerged as one of the G5's best teams late in 2023, winning six of seven and improving dramatically on both offense and defense. The Mountaineers return a 3,700-yard passer in Aguilar, plus most of his receiving corps; this offense should be good even with turnover on the line. But despite its late-year improvement, App still finished 109th in rushing success rate allowed. That's not going to cut it against strong rushing teams like Clemson and Liberty. The front six was ridiculously young, and coach Shawn Clark seems to be banking on experience and development to paper over last year's cracks. While he brought in a number of transfer DBs, he's mostly riding with last year's personnel up front. We'll see whether that gamble pays off."


JMU isn't tougher game than ULL with them being ranked 5th on here?

That schedule comment does not match for sure. Are they listing the toughest games based on preseason SOS rank instead of how good they think they are?

[AppSt94]

I really don’t understand the JMU love. Huge roster turnover, new coach, new AD and new school President. I get that they will say their culture is great, but every level of the culture pieces is now gone.

[Yosefus]

Too many games to go, actually all games left to go so it's too early to prognosticate. However, I really like our chances based on how we finished last year to win the conference. We beat Liberty and I like our chances for highest ranked conference champion. That puts us on the playoffs.
Stay tuned. Hope we see an interesting season.

[AppStFan1]

I really don’t understand the JMU love. Huge roster turnover, new coach, new AD and new school President. I get that they will say their culture is great, but every level of the culture pieces is now gone.

I agree except the roster turnover is not a negative anymore. 95% of teams are bringing in players through the portal. There were 37 FBS schools who added 15 or more players in the portal in the 2024 class.

[Bigdaddyg1]

Some aspects of the Portal fascinates me. I’ve asked this basic question before. Of all the players who enter the portal each year how many land at a new school (versus how many are out of football altogether)? Of those who transfer how many “upgrade” or “downgrade” so to speak? Of those who do upgrade or at least move laterally how many see an increase in playing time? It’s been noted that we have seen some portal transfers contribute but we must have some who barely play as well. It’s not an absolute reload for every team at every level.

[AtlAppMan]

I really don’t understand the JMU love. Huge roster turnover, new coach, new AD and new school President. I get that they will say their culture is great, but every level of the culture pieces is now gone.

I agree except the roster turnover is not a negative anymore. 95% of teams are bringing in players through the portal. There were 37 FBS schools who added 15 or more players in the portal in the 2024 class.

Yes, BUT what 94 said, EVERYTHING has changed. In every model in past years when a coaching staff and key production has left the program they get a devaluation. What are they hanging their hat on with this prediction? The new coach, albeit sounds like a good hire, is NOT a known entity at this level. It is not like some dude that has delivered at numerous FBS programs is coming in with his staff to just keep the train rolling. This is way out line to "expect/project" this level of performance vs all other G5 programs. I am not saying they may not do well but the say you expect them in top 5,.... makes no sense.

My theory is these people making these predictions are not paying any attention to everything that changed at JMU. They see they had a couple great years after they moved up and have no clue what just happened within that athletic program.

[AppSt94]

I really don’t understand the JMU love. Huge roster turnover, new coach, new AD and new school President. I get that they will say their culture is great, but every level of the culture pieces is now gone.

I agree except the roster turnover is not a negative anymore. 95% of teams are bringing in players through the portal. There were 37 FBS schools who added 15 or more players in the portal in the 2024 class.

Yes, BUT what 94 said, EVERYTHING has changed. In every model in past years when a coaching staff and key production has left the program they get a devaluation. What are they hanging their hat on with this prediction? The new coach, albeit sounds like a good hire, is NOT a known entity at this level. It is not like some dude that has delivered at numerous FBS programs is coming in with his staff to just keep the train rolling. This is way out line to "expect/project" this level of performance vs all other G5 programs. I am not saying they may not do well but the say you expect them in top 5,.... makes no sense.

To add on to the above, culture requires continuity. Over the last 35 years, there has been an App guy around to bridge the gap. Even when outsiders tried to kill the culture. Looking at you SE. When you change everything, wanting to maintain the culture means that you have to have someone that understands “the” culture.

[AppStFan1]

I really don’t understand the JMU love. Huge roster turnover, new coach, new AD and new school President. I get that they will say their culture is great, but every level of the culture pieces is now gone.

I agree except the roster turnover is not a negative anymore. 95% of teams are bringing in players through the portal. There were 37 FBS schools who added 15 or more players in the portal in the 2024 class.

Yes, BUT what 94 said, EVERYTHING has changed. In every model in past years when a coaching staff and key production has left the program they get a devaluation. What are they hanging their hat on with this prediction? The new coach, albeit sounds like a good hire, is NOT a known entity at this level. It is not like some dude that has delivered at numerous FBS programs is coming in with his staff to just keep the train rolling. This is way out line to "expect/project" this level of performance vs all other G5 programs. I am not saying they may not do well but the say you expect them in top 5,.... makes no sense.

My theory is these people making these predictions are not paying any attention to everything that changed at JMU. They see they had a couple great years after they moved up and have no clue what just happened within that athletic program.

I agree top 5 sounds like a reach and am just explaining why I think they probably had them high. I don't expect JMU to win 11 games but I also don't expect them to only go 5-7 either. It will be interesting to see how well they do. I also don't think the media is looking at all the changes.

[AppSt94]

I really don’t understand the JMU love. Huge roster turnover, new coach, new AD and new school President. I get that they will say their culture is great, but every level of the culture pieces is now gone.

I agree except the roster turnover is not a negative anymore. 95% of teams are bringing in players through the portal. There were 37 FBS schools who added 15 or more players in the portal in the 2024 class.

Any idea how that much turnover has affected a teams record year over?

[AppStFan1]

I really don’t understand the JMU love. Huge roster turnover, new coach, new AD and new school President. I get that they will say their culture is great, but every level of the culture pieces is now gone.

I agree except the roster turnover is not a negative anymore. 95% of teams are bringing in players through the portal. There were 37 FBS schools who added 15 or more players in the portal in the 2024 class.

Any idea how that much turnover has affected a teams record year over?

I think it depends on the team. Turnover has caused teams to step back and some have improved. I will be curious to see how Alabama does with their change. Colorado made a coaching change and improved their win total the first year.

Coaching continuity is not the sole reason why teams struggle. It can effect it but if there is a huge drop off there is more than just that. Just look at us in 2019 when we lost Satterfield and a few coaches followed him to Louisville but we went 13-1. Thomas was not Drink's ideal QB but he worked with him and got as much as he could out of him to help lead us to that top 20 season. Also, Harbison preferred bigger corners, as seen by those he had commit, but he did not throw Jean-Charles and Jolly aside. He worked hard with them and helped develop them into NFL corners because they had talent. A coach's job is to get the most out of his players regardless if he recruited him or not.

[hapapp]

I really don’t understand the JMU love. Huge roster turnover, new coach, new AD and new school President. I get that they will say their culture is great, but every level of the culture pieces is now gone.

I agree except the roster turnover is not a negative anymore. 95% of teams are bringing in players through the portal. There were 37 FBS schools who added 15 or more players in the portal in the 2024 class.

Yes, BUT what 94 said, EVERYTHING has changed. In every model in past years when a coaching staff and key production has left the program they get a devaluation. What are they hanging their hat on with this prediction? The new coach, albeit sounds like a good hire, is NOT a known entity at this level. It is not like some dude that has delivered at numerous FBS programs is coming in with his staff to just keep the train rolling. This is way out line to "expect/project" this level of performance vs all other G5 programs. I am not saying they may not do well but the say you expect them in top 5,.... makes no sense.

My theory is these people making these predictions are not paying any attention to everything that changed at JMU. They see they had a couple great years after they moved up and have no clue what just happened within that athletic program.

There have been a few articles in the Roanoke Times about JMU, though I haven't read them all. They have likely upgraded their running game with the North Texas transfer. He could be the best in the Belt at RB.

[Black Saturday]

JMU -8.5 UNCC

Hmmmmmmmmmm , hard to reason JMU higher than APP

[AppDub]

I really don’t understand the JMU love. Huge roster turnover, new coach, new AD and new school President. I get that they will say their culture is great, but every level of the culture pieces is now gone.

I agree except the roster turnover is not a negative anymore. 95% of teams are bringing in players through the portal. There were 37 FBS schools who added 15 or more players in the portal in the 2024 class.

Yes, BUT what 94 said, EVERYTHING has changed. In every model in past years when a coaching staff and key production has left the program they get a devaluation. What are they hanging their hat on with this prediction? The new coach, albeit sounds like a good hire, is NOT a known entity at this level. It is not like some dude that has delivered at numerous FBS programs is coming in with his staff to just keep the train rolling. This is way out line to "expect/project" this level of performance vs all other G5 programs. I am not saying they may not do well but the say you expect them in top 5,.... makes no sense.

My theory is these people making these predictions are not paying any attention to everything that changed at JMU. They see they had a couple great years after they moved up and have no clue what just happened within that athletic program.

There have been a few articles in the Roanoke Times about JMU, though I haven't read them all. They have likely upgraded their running game with the North Texas transfer. He could be the best in the Belt at RB.

They also picked up George Pettaway from UNC at RB. Their run game will definitely be better. Add that in with a QB who was starting at Washington before some no name guy (Michael Penix Jr.) showed up and they will definitely be a very tough team to handle offensively.

[AppSt94]

You can have talent on a team and not have a talented team.

[hapapp]

You can have talent on a team and not have a talented team.

But if you have talent, you have a better shot at having a talented team. I have no idea how good JMU will be but we would be foolish to sell them short.

[Saint3333]

By all accounts JMU picked up a good coach that got more out of his players than their talent level.

[EastHallApp]

Tough to project JMU with so much roster turnover and a new coach (not just new to them, but to FBS). Seems like the potential is there, but also some question marks.

TBH, I don't really follow other teams closely in the offseason. My hope is that continuity will be an advantage for App.

[AppSt94]

You can have talent on a team and not have a talented team.

But if you have talent, you have a better shot at having a talented team. I have no idea how good JMU will be but we would be foolish to sell them short.

I’m not selling them short. It’s a legitimate question to ask from an outside view. The massive amount of turnover is obvious. If you look at message boards and analysis, you see that the common denominator for valuing them is the winning culture. Everything associated with their culture is gone. Yes you can have talent, but you need to have leaders. I’m sure they have guys that will lead, but that doesn’t mean that they are leaders. App had talent in 2022 but the lack of true leadership was missing and it showed on the field. Last year had leaders and it reflected on the backend improvement.

[Saint3333]

I do wish we played JMU earlier in the year.