YouTube App State Overview

[WVAppsfan]

I just watched this prediction on the upcoming season from Youtube this morning. He fumbles a lot but says 11-2 and win the Sunbelt and the New Orleans Bowl/.

What are your thoughts?

[BUTCH1991]

I'll take it

[Saint3333]

Too many questions at OL, WR, DB for me to agree to an 11-2 prediction. Between 7 and 10 regular season wins are all reasonable outcomes for this team given this schedule.

I'm looking forward to seeing new faces step up and ease my concerns.

[/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09]

Video wouldn't work for me (Could just be my work computer). Did he get into specifics on who the 2 losses come against? I would assume our two P5 opponents.

[/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09]

Too many questions at OL, WR, DB for me to agree to an 11-2 prediction. Between 7 and 10 regular season wins are all reasonable outcomes for this team given this schedule.

I'm looking forward to seeing new faces step up and ease my concerns.

I agree. Wouldn't be surprised if Akron becomes a trap game. Two of the three prior opponents being P5 schools (Pretty good ones too) plus all of the emotions of hosting Miami. A trip to Akron against a decent Akron team could be potential for a loss. Meaning 1-3 before conference play is very possible. 9-3 is we go undefeated in conference play, 8-4 if we lose to Georgia Southern who ended last season on a very high note, and return some key players. 7-5 if Troy can give us fits like they did last year at home. 10-2 is possible though. Would not be shocked if our record isn't better than last season. Still feel we make a bowl game though.

Is it Sept 1 yet?

[moonshine]

Akron is a complete unknown with only 6 total starters (2 off and 4 def) returning from last season. Bowden is back filling the roster with the Juco's and transfers. The Zips lost all 5 OL starters on O and all 3 LB's on D. Not trying to downplay Akron but I think the Zips may find it difficult to replicate their 8 win season from 2015.

[WVAppsfan]

He feels that the two losses are UT and Georgia Southern

[/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09]

He feels that the two losses are UT and Georgia Southern

That would mean Georgia Southern would need to lose two games for us to be ahead of them. Possible but a stretch; also with the Sun Belt's current structure, it's hard to crown a true conference champ since we don't play every team.

[moonshine]

He feels that the two losses are UT and Georgia Southern

That would mean Georgia Southern would need to lose two games for us to be ahead of them. Possible but a stretch; also with the Sun Belt's current structure, it's hard to crown a true conference champ since we don't play every team.

Going off the prediction our Mountaineers lose to GS in Statesboro, it would also mean stAte would need to have 2 conference losses in order for App to win the Sun Belt outright. Really wish we were playing the Red Wolves this year!

[bigdaddyg]

I completely understand the "trap game" thing but I also think it's getting completely overused. We play 12 regular season games. If our players and coaches can't figure out how to approach every game in the same manner something is wrong. Goals, realistic or not, should be:

1- win every game
2- win conference championship
3- win bowl game

Along the line don't lose to teams you are expected to beat

[EastHallApp]

Too many questions at OL, WR, DB for me to agree to an 11-2 prediction. Between 7 and 10 regular season wins are all reasonable outcomes for this team given this schedule.

I'm looking forward to seeing new faces step up and ease my concerns.

I won't disagree with that as "reasonable," but unless a rash of injuries is involved, 7-5 would be a huge disappointment for this team and program.

[Saint3333]

Let me clarify, I too would be disappointed with 7-5, but not surprised. We went 10-2 last year with two games (Troy and USA) being very tough games. Our OOC games are much tougher overall this year and we play GS, Troy, and ULL on the road. I think the most likely record for this season would be 9-3.

[hapapp]

My guess would be an 8-4/9-3 season. That doesn't mean I think something better than that is not possible. I'm assuming losses to UT, Miami, and GS. With both Troy and UL on the road, another loss is certainly possible. How our OL and WR perform and develop is the key.

[EastHallApp]

Let me clarify, I too would be disappointed with 7-5, but not surprised. We went 10-2 last year with two games (Troy and USA) being very tough games. Our OOC games are much tougher overall this year and we play GS, Troy, and ULL on the road. I think the most likely record for this season would be 9-3.

I would be surprised at 7-5, though I understand your reasoning. As far as most likely record, I'm with you. I think 9-3 is sort of my baseline expectation. If the three losses are to UT, Miami and Southern, that would be a solid year that unfortunately would be short on any real highlight wins. But there'd still be a decent shot at a share of the SBC title, so there's that. And of course, a chance at a 10th win in the bowl.

Anything below 9 wins and I will be at least somewhat disappointed. 10-2 would be fantastic. 11-1 is the dream season, as IMO that would mean winning every game in which we have a realistic chance.

[EastHallApp]

One thing I hope to see us improve on this year is simply cutting down on unforced errors. That USA game was only close because we kept fumbling at the goal line and then a return man let a kickoff hit him in the face. Same deal in the bowl game. We were far superior to both those teams except for our habit of shooting ourselves in the foot.

[bigdaddyg]

Let me clarify, I too would be disappointed with 7-5, but not surprised. We went 10-2 last year with two games (Troy and USA) being very tough games. Our OOC games are much tougher overall this year and we play GS, Troy, and ULL on the road. I think the most likely record for this season would be 9-3.

I would be surprised at 7-5, though I understand your reasoning. As far as most likely record, I'm with you. I think 9-3 is sort of my baseline expectation. If the three losses are to UT, Miami and Southern, that would be a solid year that unfortunately would be short on any real highlight wins. But there'd still be a decent shot at a share of the SBC title, so there's that. And of course, a chance at a 10th win in the bowl.

Anything below 9 wins and I will be at least somewhat disappointed. 10-2 would be fantastic. 11-1 is the dream season, as IMO that would mean winning every game in which we have a realistic chance.

A close loss to UT would not be horrible, a win would be amazing (duh) but a blowout loss would be very disappointing due to our depth and expectations. A close loss to Miami would hurt since this is the biggest home game ever and we would be left with what ifs. Same feeling if they blow us out. If we get beaten badly by UT and the U we will be like the little boys not ready to play with the big boys. Any conference loss will be really disappointing IMO due to expectations and any conference loss following a win over one of the big boys would really be a downer. If we slip up against ODU or Akron that could really set off major concerns. Basically a 1-3 start would really suck. A 2-2 start with two close losses and 2 decisive wins would probably make most of feel ok with conference games remaining. That would set up a great goal of going 9-0 the rest of the way. Realistically 8-4 or 9-3 would what we might be looking at- not bad at all but our sights are set pretty high.

[MtnDevil95]

Unforced errors were an issue last season, and seemed to come in bunches in the 2nd quarter. At least at Clemson and in Montgomery anyway. I get the feeling that this year's team has the basic tools in place to be very good (10-2 or 11-1 good). There is proven talent coming back, and high hopes on some additional size and speed potential in the new starters. Statistically and with returning starters the O-line has high expectations for an experienced QB, and stable of thoroughbred running backs, but let us not forget a new O-line coach is running the show. How much is gained or lost with the replacement of Ledford?

I could easily see a 9-3 or even 8-4 record coming out of this season, though honestly I would be disappointed with 8-4. Maybe my expectations are too high, but I really think that outside of the Tennessee and Miami games, the other 10 games are App's to lose. Maybe Stink has the size speed and talent to hang with this group of men, but across the rest of the schedule in my mind the only games App loses are on mental errors and/or being flat outplayed, not for lack of talent, size, speed, etc.

[moonshine]

...but let us not forget a new O-line coach is running the show. How much is gained or lost with the replacement of Ledford?

I think this is a huge question mark going into 2016. Ledford took the band of brothers to the next level. After the disappointing recruiting results we had towards the end of the FCS era, he made the most of a depleted situation. Hopefully Clark can continue to build off what Ledford left. Let's just hope we don't hire anymore TE coaches from Tulsa to coach our OL.

[bigdaddyg]

Just for the sake of discussion what if this year UT and Miami were replaced by P5 Wake and P5 Ole Miss (just grabbed an SEC team) and we beat both, beat ODU and Akron convincingly then just slipped up with a loss in conference. How would that compare with close losses to UT and Miami and the same outcome with the rest? Still "P5" wins albeit against lesser competition.

[EastHallApp]

Just for the sake of discussion what if this year UT and Miami were replaced by P5 Wake and P5 Ole Miss (just grabbed an SEC team) and we beat both, beat ODU and Akron convincingly then just slipped up with a loss in conference. How would that compare with close losses to UT and Miami and the same outcome with the rest? Still "P5" wins albeit against lesser competition.

11-1 would certainly be better than 9-3. While that Wake win wouldn't get many people's attention, Ole Miss is ranked almost as high as Tennessee, so that would be a major headline-grabber. (Personally I think they're overrated, but presumably we'd still be playing them in game 1 in your hypothetical). Even if you replace them with a clearly lesser SEC team - say, Missouri - I think you still take the two wins with no hesitation.

Close losses, while they might be encouraging to us, would barely be noticed by a national audience. And to the extent they are, it would be in the context of "What's wrong with Tennessee/Miami?"